Rise of the Sheep! JocMeister(A) vs. Obvert(J)

[paullus99]

Nice to see those George's torched on the ground, as opposed to seeing them in the air.....

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: paullus99

Nice to see those George's torched on the ground, as opposed to seeing them in the air.....

Indeed! [:D]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]16th October 1944[/font]
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A pretty quiet turn. Not the fireworks I expected.

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PI archipelago
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BFs and support troops land uninterrupted at San Jose. The sweeps sent in over Naga finds only 7 fighters on CAP.

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DEI
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In a strange turn of events none of the Corsair sweeps fly. But a Hellcats sweep from the same base does. The Hellcats take a beating of course. I thought I messed up the settings but every thing checks out. Odd. [&:]

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Marianas
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Bombardments at both Saipan and Guam take out about 80 Jap troops each. We rest for another day.

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Borneo
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11th Airborne division try to grab Dongalla (see map) on the cheap. Unfortunately they fail because I assigned to few transports. The forts were also higher than expected. Crap.

Ground combat at Donggala (68,99)

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 1205 troops, 58 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 70

Defending force 1724 troops, 16 guns, 3 vehicles, Assault Value = 11

Allied adjusted assault: 35

Japanese adjusted defense: 19

Allied assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 4) [X(]

Allied Assault reduces fortifications to 3

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), disruption(-), preparation(-)
experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+), leaders(-), disruption(-)

Japanese ground losses:
77 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 12 disabled
Guns lost 3 (1 destroyed, 2 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
24 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
11th Airborne Div /1

Defending units:
4th Naval Construction Battalion
41st JNAF AF Unit

Its no disaster as I will secure Balikpapan soon but annoying nevertheless. I´ll try to pump in more troops and unleash the 4Es and see what happens. Erik will most likely fly in more troops just to annoy me. Its too far to intercept.

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Strategic Bombings
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The B29s pay a daylight visit to Hong Kong as Erik has neglected to put fighters there. Results are a bit underwhelming as the damage is almost lower than what I expect in night attacks.

Some 30.000 fires are started. Thats it. I can usually get at least that by night. Ah, well.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Tavoy[/font]
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Looks like Erik is sending in the fleet. I think I can handle anything short of the KB. I guess we'll find out shortly! [:)]

Allied Naval presence
2 BBs
5 CAs
2 Modern CLs
2 Old CLs
30 DDs.

This is backed up by a large number of Naval bombers including USN Avengers and attack bombers.

I wonder if this is the area that he will chose to send in the Kamis for the first time. Its eerily quiet in the area. I had expected a massive Japanese effort to stop the reinforcements for Tavoy. Very strange that I have seen no reaction at all.

[JocMeister]

Quick question!

If a unit is converted to Kamis. Do they intel show them as bombers or is it dependent on the actual airframe? So a Fighter squadron converted to Kamis will still read as fighters when I hover the mouse over the base?

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]17th October 1944[/font]
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Overall a pretty quiet day. Some good and some bad.

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DEI
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Lets start with the not so good. My Sweeps took off today. 24x4 Corsair Ds. Two of the squadrons had extremely good pilots so I expected good results here. That did not happen though. 33 Jap planes are shot down for 24 [X(] own losses. Not good. I reran the turn and watched the whole replay to see what happened. Turns out Erik got about 20 minutes warning on each of the sweeps. This gave his planes time to climb above my sweeps and then dive on them.

I have to change tactics here I think. My pools are really fragile and the Corsair and Hellcat pools are almost empty. And I don´t want to give away kills to Erik at this rate. I´ll have to come up with something to counter this. I´m thinking perhaps I should start mixing in some high altitude LRCAP using P47s and/or Hellcats. These are the only two planes I have that are allowed on the top MVR band per our HR.

Just goes to show that whenever you think you started to get the hang of things the game throws a curveball at you!

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Dongalla
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Remember that paradrop the failed yesterday? Well today the paras managed to secure the base! [&o][X(] Did not expect that!

Ground combat at Donggala (68,99)

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 3437 troops, 58 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 131

Defending force 1596 troops, 15 guns, 3 vehicles, Assault Value = 8

Allied adjusted assault: 58

Japanese adjusted defense: 7

Allied assault odds: 8 to 1 (fort level 3)

Allied forces CAPTURE Donggala !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), disruption(-), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+), leaders(-), disruption(-)

Japanese ground losses:
283 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 24 destroyed, 7 disabled
Engineers: 36 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 5 (2 destroyed, 3 disabled)
Vehicles lost 3 (3 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units retreated 2

Allied ground losses:
13 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Defeated Japanese Units Retreating! [&o]

Assaulting units:
11th Airborne Div /1

Defending units:
4th Naval Construction Battalion
41st JNAF AF Unit

As soon as the airfield is repaired I´m going to fly in some CAP and land some BFs. Good news! [:)]

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Elsewhere
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Not much happening. Moving stuff around and loading the next attack wave. More attacks ordered tomorrow in the Marianas. Fingers crossed we keep doing good there!

There has been a tremendous amount of activity in Eriks AAR today. That probably means something big is up. Double checked search arcs and rerouted some TFs that were a bit exposed. I´m quite worried right now to be honest. KB could be in a position to strike my TFs going back from the Marianas judging by the SIGINT earlier. I sent everything in under CV CAP so if he does come he will find a 700 plane CAP up (hopefully! [:D])

The latest sweeps over Lomblen is really worrisome. I don´t like it one bit. If anyone has any ideas worth trying I would love to hear them! [:)]

No screen today as there isn´t much interesting to show.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Quick question!

If a unit is converted to Kamis. Do they intel show them as bombers or is it dependent on the actual airframe? So a Fighter squadron converted to Kamis will still read as fighters when I hover the mouse over the base?

Don't strictly know the answer, but as it shows plane type not unit type, I doubt that would affect it.

[JocMeister]

I kind of assumed it wouldn´t but wanted to make sure! [:)] Will make it really hard to judge current air strength in an area. 500 Fighters doesn´t necessarily mean that any more.

For the second day in a row there is no morning turn from Erik. And no explanation for the lack of it. I don´t mind the lack of a turn as stuff get in the way. But the lack of of communication is quite irritating. We live in an area of constant internet connection. It takes 15 seconds to send an email from the phone saying "sorry didn´t have time for the turn" or something like that.

Ah well.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Marianas Operation[/font]
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As this operation is starting to wind down I can finally sit down and asses it. All major combat ships have left the area and the troops are safely ashore. Deliberate attacks are ordered again tomorrow. I think this whole operation has been an absolutely stunning success. I went almost perfectly and did exactly what I wanted it to do.

Phase 1
Was the landing on Tinian. This was done with the sole purpose of drawing Japanese forces to the Marianas and away from Mindanao and Luzon. Tinian was quickly secured and I left 70.000 supply in place. Erik started to heavily reinforce all the islands in the chain with almost 200.000 men! Not only that but he also sent a large number of bombers to the suppress the airfield. Those bombers never actually closed the airfield until supply ran out but they could have tipped the balance in the two CV battles we had during the time.

Phase 2
Landing on Saipan. This was expected to be bloody but the embedded BBs did their job and soaked the hits. They all have between 5 and 20 in SYS damage. This was lighter than expected and as they were all scheduled to go the WC for refits it doesn´t change anything.

Phase 3
Landing on Guam. When things settled down and the situation stabilized we promptly landed on Guam. I embedded 6 BBs in a massive TF to avoid exposure the the CD guns and it worked perfectly.

Assessment
Some things I could have done better though.
- 1 Sent in the Supply and Tanker TFs too early. I had counted on the 6 SCTFs to shelter them but Erik managed to get MTBs and even Es in at Tinian unopposed. That cost me a fair amount of shipping. Mostly to collisions.
- ASW situation was critical at a point as Erik absolutely flooded the area with subs.

Allied losses
1 CVE (sub)
1 AKA (CD guns)
4 Tankers (collisions/naval gunfire)
2 PFs (naval gunfire)
1 SC (collision)
1 DE (Sub)
8 xAKs (Mostly subs)

For the price of the 3 biggest bases in the Marianas. Almost for free! [&o]

Japanese losses
120-150.000 men on Tinian, Saipan and Guam. (about 2500 AV in total) Another 80-100.000 trapped in a tough spot including 50.000 men on Pagan? [X(]
20-30 subs
2 DDs

Infact this is by a large margin the biggest Japanese defeat in terms of soldiers so far.

I think Erik made a couple of mistakes here. Of course this is easy for me to see as I knew exactly what I was planning to do and what was coming. First of all I think he waited for too long with reinforcements. All bases was almost empty in the first phase. Forts were too low. (level 6) and he had no big combat formations. Only the usual mix of BDE, RGTs and NavGuard units. These forces simply don´t cut it and they fold easily when confronted with divisions. This has been the tale of the whole allied advance with the exception of Burma.

Once Tinian was secured I don´t see the point of trying to reinforce the other bases. Short of parking the KB in the area there was no way for him to stop me coming back whenever I wanted. It gave me a good place to park AEs, refuel and most importantly add 200 P47s for local CAP and sweep capabilities. I think Erik would have been better off just leaving enough to force me to come in force. Now those 2500 AV will come back at 35EXP/35MRL and will require a good amount of time to get back in fighting shape.

New LOC
The most important aspect of this is that I now have a almost secure LOC from PH straight to Mindanao. It will take quite a while to set everything up but things will get from the WC a lot faster now than the WC-PH-Nom-Fin-Morotai-Mindanao route! [:D]

As can seen on this map. The difference is quite obvious! [:D]

[witpqs]

Well done! [:)]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]18th October 1944[/font]
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One of the most quiet days in a long, long time. Only 16 AC losses during the whole turn. Both sides! [X(]

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DEI
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Strangely enough it looks like Erik is pulling out the big guns. No idea why. Perhaps he deemed Timor not worth the risk. He is probably right if thats the reasoning.

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PI archipelago
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BFs started landing on San Jose. Airfield goes to 3. 2/3rds of the 1st USMC reach Iloilo and will capture the base tomorrow. This will become a big fighter hub with a level 5 airfield already built. From here I can cover most landings as well as putting some real pressure on Manilla.

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Marianas
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More good news as Saipan is really starting to crumble and Guam goes a lot better than expected for the second time as well! [&o]

Ground combat at Saipan (108,93)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 48052 troops, 1070 guns, 1053 vehicles, Assault Value = 1715

Defending force 28675 troops, 381 guns, 350 vehicles, Assault Value = 434

Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 2

Allied adjusted assault: 2471

Japanese adjusted defense: 1295

Allied assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 2)

Allied Assault reduces fortifications to 2 [&o][&o][&o]

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
2585 casualties reported
Squads: 30 destroyed, 153 disabled
Non Combat: 7 destroyed, 77 disabled
Engineers: 5 destroyed, 14 disabled
Guns lost 92 (9 destroyed, 83 disabled)
Vehicles lost 17 (1 destroyed, 16 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
1398 casualties reported
Squads: 4 destroyed, 121 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 18 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 36 disabled
Guns lost 47 (6 destroyed, 41 disabled)
Vehicles lost 26 (1 destroyed, 25 disabled)

At Guam the armor is really proving its worth. Notice the very low adjusted AV compared to the Japanese losses. Huzzah!! [&o]

Ground combat at Guam (106,95)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 43958 troops, 855 guns, 1473 vehicles, Assault Value = 1739

Defending force 30737 troops, 475 guns, 253 vehicles, Assault Value = 722

Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 4 [&o][&o][&o]

Allied adjusted assault: 746

Japanese adjusted defense: 1937 This was 4247 the last attack!!! [8D]

Allied assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 4)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), leaders(+), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
2852 casualties reported [&o]
Squads: 30 destroyed, 229 disabled [&o]
Non Combat: 6 destroyed, 70 disabled
Engineers: 9 destroyed, 32 disabled
Guns lost 93 (11 destroyed, 82 disabled)
Vehicles lost 59 (14 destroyed, 45 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
1598 casualties reported
Squads: 9 destroyed, 181 disabled
Non Combat: 5 destroyed, 71 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 50 disabled
Guns lost 82 (1 destroyed, 81 disabled)
Vehicles lost 121 (14 destroyed, 107 disabled) [X(]

Here is a screen of the Iloilo base.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Early 45[/font]
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So with the Marianas campaign starting to wrap up I need to start figuring out what to do next. Luzon is of course still the main objective for now. But I don´t think I will need the Marianas forces to aid in that. I have about 7000 AV ready for Luzon with another 2000 on its way. With proximity to big allied airfields I don´t see any reasons to send more there right now.

So the question really is. Where to send the 5000 AV freed up in the Marianas? I will leave enough to start securing the other bases in a leisurely pace. So say 3500 AV ready to prep for something else. But what?

Okinawa? Formosa? China? Thailand? Malaya? Java? Bonins?

I think I have already made up my mind after studying the map for almost 3 hours. I would love to hear any opinions on the matter before making up my mind. I have a few more days before I can start prepping anyway. As I can see it there is only one logical place to go that will in the end bring Japan to its knees.

Don´t mean to be secretive but I would love to hear others viewpoint uncolored by my own thinking! [:)]

[Bullwinkle58]

Bonins.

[paullus99]

Bonins - make him react to you for a change & it'll help your fight in the Philippines as well.

[Crackaces]

My question would be .. what does the Intel tell you about distribution of forces .. where is the IJ leaving a hole to cover the world? If the IJ is "cheating" a bit and stripping units from traditional starting bases it might be worth surprising the IJ .. for example if Formosa has been stripped of domestic guards units to man spots on the front lines it might be worth a hail mary to strike ...

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

My question would be .. what does the Intel tell you about distribution of forces .. where is the IJ leaving a hole to cover the world? If the IJ is "cheating" a bit and stripping units from traditional starting bases it might be worth surprising the IJ .. for example if Formosa has been stripped of domestic guards units to man spots on the front lines it might be worth a hail mary to strike ...

While this is true I would avoid Formosa given what Mindanao and the DEI has cost the Allies to date. Formosa looks luscious in terms of size, location, and VPs. But in my AI experience it's a snake pit. Close to Chinese LBA, probably Forts 8-9 in the big harbors. Mountain movement which takes half of forever. Close to big HI western naval bases for raids using coastal movement. A long way from a yard when Manila is not held.

The Bonins make it a naval fight. The AFs are multiple, but usually not large. Get one and the others are neutered. He has to use fuel, he has to bring carriers. And once taken they're P-51 sweep bases for the rim of the HI.

I'd also consider Marcus (don't recall who owns it) and then a run at Sakhalin Island. I know he's deep in the Aleutians, but those bases, unless he evacuates Real Soon Now, will be un-suppliable if Jocke runs his air force properly. Sakhalin has big AFs and makes Hokkaido industry very bombable. The calendar isn't good right now to go, but March/April 1945 would be.

[JocMeister]

Love the discussion! [:)]

Some good points coming up. I will add here though that my naval search reaches into the Bonins and Erik is absolutely packing the place. I lost track of all the units picked up via sigint moving there. Landing on those 30k atolls will require a gargantuan effort. One I will try to avoid. I learned about atolls the hard way. Doing a 30k one that probably have level 6-8 forts within LBA range from the HI... Not something I would want to try.

The target I´m considering is actually Formosa. For one simple reason: It gives me a level 9 AF within reach of all Japanese major cities. Within normalradius of B29s. As soon as I get that I can begun to night strat bomb him into oblivion. I looked all over the map and barring Korea Formosa is the only place on the map that offers this (except Shikuka). From what I have seen so far this can actually win the war. Something as simple as a level 9 AF. Formosa gives me 4(!) level 9 AFs. All within B29 range of the HI.

My reasoning here is that from what I have seen so far flying extended and normal is like comparing the moon and the sun. While I can hit the HI from Luzon it will mostly be on extended range taking a huge toll on the B29s making missions far less frequent and losses much higher. If I can get there in Q1 or Q2 -45...All the stockpiles won´t matter if there arn´t no factories to produce anything?

I also believe Erik will poor everything he has into Luzon and trying to make a stand there. He is a big fan of the "deathstar" and already have massed almost 200.000 troops in Manilla. This can potentially make him overdo it and leave Formosa too lightly held. And even if he did have "enough". Can he hold against 3-4000 AV in a clear hex? I don´t think so. Actually taking the place I´m quite confident I can do. Everything in clear hexes are allied yum yums! [:D] All I need is one base on Formosa and I can start hitting the heart of the empire!

Am I wrong here? I feel quite strongly this is the right move. That "gut feeling" is very strong. I just torched Soerabaja with 150k fires going in a single night raid with only 150 B29s. What can 300-500 do the HI in a couple of months?!

EDIT: Should also add here that Erik has given up the southern part of Luzon to make his deathstar. Its almost empty so I will quite possible be able to give some LBA cover to the landing.

[Crackaces]

There are two strategies being advised here .. I understand one is to steadily advance and pour the Allied unstoppable force methodically .. for example, Iwo Jima can be isolated at this late stage with submarines and you know how many troops you have to fight .. it is a simple matter of brute force ... This works and you know the forces and what has to be brought to bare to accomplish the mission... it might be bloody but it all can be calculated ..

However, I am also considering advocating taking what the IJ give you. I had Formosa in my sights in two PBEM games . in both games it all ended before my final assault. Because of rapid advances the IJ stripped Formosa to add AV to China and Southeast Asia. In my first game AAR's my plan was to go Pueto Prinscia into Formosa .. in my second game I planned to jump from Hanoi to Formosa ... Securing Davao and Pueto Prinscia might be a good thing [8D]

I personally see Formosa as an opportunity in mid '44 where that position isolates the IJ while starting to turn the Home Islands into ash ... in '45 I can imagine the interlocking bases with multiple ports .. no atolls/shock attacks might be a consideration ...Strategic bombing is very effective in this game for adding on VP's ..

[Bullwinkle58]

Those Level 9 AFs can host, umm, about 5000 kamis. Don't eat the deer until you shoot the deer.

If you want to do Formosa go for it. I'll try to wait until late to say I told you so. [:)]

[JocMeister]

Bullwinkle,

I know. But I´m not sure its possible for LBA to penetrate a big CAP. I have seen both me and Erik try. I couldn´t do it with 500 TB/DB against a 50 plane CAP (from a level 9 AF). Erik sent almost a thousand bombers and didn´t penetrate. And that was just a small 300 plane CAP. I´m assuming here Kamis are treated as LBA and don´t have their own routine?

By Q1 -45 I should have another 5 CVs and all previously damaged CVL/CVEs back in the game. I´m not saying it will work. But I don´t think its impossible. Under the official patch it would be. But I don´t think it will be under the BETA.

I´m also not convinced I can bring Japan to its knees flying from extended range at night in the BETA. It might be doable. But within normal range I know it is. Sometimes you gotta take a change right? [:)]