Rise of the Sheep! JocMeister(A) vs. Obvert(J)

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

P47s are at 42k. This HR has been a big help for me in 43 and 44. So it doesnt explain the result. I would be worse off without it.

Clearly then I don't understand your HR. 42k is the max altitude for the P-47. How is that the second-best MV band? The last modifier is at "greater than 32k feet."

Its best second MVR band. So I have been the only one with access to the top MVR band since the Hellcat came online in 4/43. Then with the P47. So both those AC have been able to operate at maximum altitude.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

I think there is an opportunity to look at the big picture. maybe an IJFB can chime in but given the level of IJ fighter production and losses about how much HI would the IJ typically have saved? Joc should have the world cut off and the IJ should be using the HI reserves at this point? I would assume that the IJ economy is about to have its day of reckoning ?

Judging by the air losses... from what I can see in the screenshot a couple of posts up, adding up all of the IJ planes listed in the second screenshot is a total of 23,818 engines. That's 857,448 HI spent. There are 10891 IJ aircraft unaccounted for. Assuming half of those are 2E (Netties?), 40% 1E (Vals, Rufes, etc.), and 10% 4E flying boats (Obvert has used them a lot, unsure if 110 is a reasonable number for their losses)... That still only totals about 1.5M HI. For 3 years of game time (1098 turns?), that's not TOO much. 1366 HI per day. With Scen 1 pilot training costs, I think Obvert can afford this.

Perhaps part of the problem, Joc, is that you're fighting over his bases a lot with sweeps, so his pilot losses are much lower than they otherwise would be? As for operating outside of air cover, are you playing with the database fixes? They make AAA much deadlier, and if he wants to inflict any kind of real losses on your LCUs from the air it's going to require planes, blood, and supplies that he may not be able to afford. Even IJAAF humble 2E bombing campaigns just burn up the supply. In an AI game not so long ago, I was bombing daily with ~500 IJAAF 2Es, all Helens/Sallys. The supply required numbers at their airbases jumped to a total of ~40k between them. If he wants to expend that amount of supply now (not to mention the HI to replace the planes, and the hard-to-replace pilots), it's going to really hurt him later.


RE: pool levels in general -

You're in the "dead zone" for the P-47 right now, aren't you? I just loaded up a game from the Allied side. The P-47D25 stops being replaced in 6/44, and the P-47N doesn't start until 3/45. I think I remember seeing this pop up in other threads.

You just started receiving the P-51D at 120/mo and the F4U-1D at 158. Maybe it's time to let the USMC pilots take over a bit of the burden?

Also, I agree with Bullwinkle a bit here. You could use other good planes at high altitudes if you weren't restricted to second-best rating. For example, the F4U-1D has a max alt of 39.3, which is still slightly higher than the -84r Frank and it's SR1 vs. the Frank's 3. Likewise, your P-38s are being prevented from doing their historical job as well by that HR - they have max alts near 40k, but their second-best band tops out at 31k. But you're 3 years in, so we can discuss that in a different thread/game .

[ny59giants]

Having a HR for max ceiling based on 2nd best maneuver band puts a further restriction on Allied fighters. The Allied fighters maneuver better at their max than Japanese as far as I can recall.

I would ask for an end to this HR now. Both sides need to see if this is a good or bad thing to have. In my PBEM, we did one based on the date. So, when '44 rolls around, neither side will have any restriction. If I remember right, MichaelM added an increase to fatigue levels when you fly above 31k.

[Spidery]

I think there is an opportunity to look at the big picture. maybe an IJFB can chime in but given the level of IJ fighter production and losses about how much HI would the IJ typically have saved? Joc should have the world cut off and the IJ should be using the HI reserves at this point? I would assume that the IJ economy is about to have its day of reckoning ?

It is impossible to make even an educated guess from the outside looking in. At its peak, Japanese fuel production is about 10 million per year and Japan starts with about 6 million stockpiles (including oil stock).

Depending how much naval movement there has been, and how quickly the Japanese navy shrunk, 8 to 12 million might be spent by the Navy by now. Depending how much the naval programme was curtailed could make a lot of difference as well. So any estimate is going to be +/- a few million and 1 million HI represents 20,000 aircraft. I.e. the total aircraft build falls within the margin of error in estimating HI.

To give a feel for just how variable it is, there are 5 Tonan Whaler TK, if these have all been sunk laden with fuel that is about 1500 aircraft less built then if they were sunk heading back empty.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Also, I agree with Bullwinkle a bit here. You could use other good planes at high altitudes if you weren't restricted to second-best rating. For example, the F4U-1D has a max alt of 39.3, which is still slightly higher than the -84r Frank and it's SR1 vs. the Frank's 3. Likewise, your P-38s are being prevented from doing their historical job as well by that HR - they have max alts near 40k, but their second-best band tops out at 31k. But you're 3 years in, so we can discuss that in a different thread/game .

I never really grasped this HR until now. I'll never play with it, so for me it's academic. But, depending on the plane, it forces some really bizarre behaviors, especially in the second-generation Allied fighters. It requires some planes to sweep at max altitude even if the player would rather not for various coordination reasons. This is a huge advantage on bouncing, but after they dive on the bounce they're fighting in a great MV band the rest of the fight. So the HR gives with both hands. As you say, the P-38 is a really odd duck with this HR. For at least one of the P-47s it doesn't matter; there's no MV penalty at any altitude. And so on.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Judging by the air losses... from what I can see in the screenshot a couple of posts up, adding up all of the IJ planes listed in the second screenshot is a total of 23,818 engines. That's 857,448 HI spent. There are 10891 IJ aircraft unaccounted for. Assuming half of those are 2E (Netties?), 40% 1E (Vals, Rufes, etc.), and 10% 4E flying boats (Obvert has used them a lot, unsure if 110 is a reasonable number for their losses)... That still only totals about 1.5M HI. For 3 years of game time (1098 turns?), that's not TOO much. 1366 HI per day. With Scen 1 pilot training costs, I think Obvert can afford this.

Perhaps part of the problem, Joc, is that you're fighting over his bases a lot with sweeps, so his pilot losses are much lower than they otherwise would be? As for operating outside of air cover, are you playing with the database fixes? They make AAA much deadlier, and if he wants to inflict any kind of real losses on your LCUs from the air it's going to require planes, blood, and supplies that he may not be able to afford. Even IJAAF humble 2E bombing campaigns just burn up the supply. In an AI game not so long ago, I was bombing daily with ~500 IJAAF 2Es, all Helens/Sallys. The supply required numbers at their airbases jumped to a total of ~40k between them. If he wants to expend that amount of supply now (not to mention the HI to replace the planes, and the hard-to-replace pilots), it's going to really hurt him later.


RE: pool levels in general -

You're in the "dead zone" for the P-47 right now, aren't you? I just loaded up a game from the Allied side. The P-47D25 stops being replaced in 6/44, and the P-47N doesn't start until 3/45. I think I remember seeing this pop up in other threads.

You just started receiving the P-51D at 120/mo and the F4U-1D at 158. Maybe it's time to let the USMC pilots take over a bit of the burden?

Also, I agree with Bullwinkle a bit here. You could use other good planes at high altitudes if you weren't restricted to second-best rating. For example, the F4U-1D has a max alt of 39.3, which is still slightly higher than the -84r Frank and it's SR1 vs. the Frank's 3. Likewise, your P-38s are being prevented from doing their historical job as well by that HR - they have max alts near 40k, but their second-best band tops out at 31k. But you're 3 years in, so we can discuss that in a different thread/game .

Thanks for the input Lokasenna! [&o]

I havn´t actually been sweeping his bases since a few months back. He withdrew to Bangkok/Manila 2-3 months ago. After that I have been sweeping his LRCAP. Often over his troops though. Don´t know if that helps with pilots losses or if its own bases only?

I just did a quick and dirty count on HI costs. Assuming Erik has about 3 million HI in the bank now. If he spend 2 million of those on fighters alone thats 36 HI per plane right? So he can make 11.000 fighters just using HI in that is currently "in the bank"? Would this be a fairly accurate assumption?

You are right about the P47. But I have been really restrictive in my use of them and had a good pool of 450 P47s when the -25 version stopped running. The last 4 weeks just drained them including some 250 more that was in squadrons.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Having a HR for max ceiling based on 2nd best maneuver band puts a further restriction on Allied fighters. The Allied fighters maneuver better at their max than Japanese as far as I can recall.

I would ask for an end to this HR now. Both sides need to see if this is a good or bad thing to have. In my PBEM, we did one based on the date. So, when '44 rolls around, neither side will have any restriction. If I remember right, MichaelM added an increase to fatigue levels when you fly above 31k.

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

I never really grasped this HR until now. I'll never play with it, so for me it's academic. But, depending on the plane, it forces some really bizarre behaviors, especially in the second-generation Allied fighters. It requires some planes to sweep at max altitude even if the player would rather not for various coordination reasons. This is a huge advantage on bouncing, but after they dive on the bounce they're fighting in a great MV band the rest of the fight. So the HR gives with both hands. As you say, the P-38 is a really odd duck with this HR. For at least one of the P-47s it doesn't matter; there's no MV penalty at any altitude. And so on.

I actually really dislike the HR. As bullwinkle points it it really messes stuff up. It absolutely KILLED the P40 when his Tojos arrived. He could sweep from 31k while my P40s where stuck on CAP at 20k. While not the norm I did see 50-1 results on a few occasions. 10-1 was normal. Once the P47 arrived it was the other way around.

Erik actually asked me if we could do away with this HR when the P47 arrived. I basically said it was my time to have some fun now and wanted to take advantage of it. So we decided to talk about it when he had some fighters able to access the top MVR band.

I´ll bring it up with him but I´m not sure he will accept. He now has a fighter he can mass produce at a tremendous rate (probably at least 500/month). I can´t counter that until the P47N arrives. I did not consider that the allied planes actually have a MVR advantage up high. But i´ll ask him and see what he says. I can still put the Hellcat up high and with radar most of my fighters should be able to climb above his sweeps.

To put things into a perspective I refused the 2nd MVR band HR in my other game. We are running a sort of gentleman's agreement not to go above 20k. Works very well. We will up the altitude per year as Michael is doing.

[aztez]

The fighter production definately is an bloody mess for allied side.

I'am currently using the max. 30 000 feet for anykind of aircraft in my new PBEM. Don't know whether it is an good idea but so far so good.

You really need to start finding those aircraft factories and start bombing hell out of them. Once those are done it will ease the situation a bit.

It will cost you B29 bombers but in my opinion definately worth the effort.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Spidery

I think there is an opportunity to look at the big picture. maybe an IJFB can chime in but given the level of IJ fighter production and losses about how much HI would the IJ typically have saved? Joc should have the world cut off and the IJ should be using the HI reserves at this point? I would assume that the IJ economy is about to have its day of reckoning ?

It is impossible to make even an educated guess from the outside looking in. At its peak, Japanese fuel production is about 10 million per year and Japan starts with about 6 million stockpiles (including oil stock).

Depending how much naval movement there has been, and how quickly the Japanese navy shrunk, 8 to 12 million might be spent by the Navy by now. Depending how much the naval programme was curtailed could make a lot of difference as well. So any estimate is going to be +/- a few million and 1 million HI represents 20,000 aircraft. I.e. the total aircraft build falls within the margin of error in estimating HI.

To give a feel for just how variable it is, there are 5 Tonan Whaler TK, if these have all been sunk laden with fuel that is about 1500 aircraft less built then if they were sunk heading back empty.

Minor quibble. The Tonans can carry 16,435 Fuel. At 36 HI per single engine plane, that's only 456.53. Not insubstantial, but definitely not 1500 planes!

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Judging by the air losses... from what I can see in the screenshot a couple of posts up, adding up all of the IJ planes listed in the second screenshot is a total of 23,818 engines. That's 857,448 HI spent. There are 10891 IJ aircraft unaccounted for. Assuming half of those are 2E (Netties?), 40% 1E (Vals, Rufes, etc.), and 10% 4E flying boats (Obvert has used them a lot, unsure if 110 is a reasonable number for their losses)... That still only totals about 1.5M HI. For 3 years of game time (1098 turns?), that's not TOO much. 1366 HI per day. With Scen 1 pilot training costs, I think Obvert can afford this.

Perhaps part of the problem, Joc, is that you're fighting over his bases a lot with sweeps, so his pilot losses are much lower than they otherwise would be? As for operating outside of air cover, are you playing with the database fixes? They make AAA much deadlier, and if he wants to inflict any kind of real losses on your LCUs from the air it's going to require planes, blood, and supplies that he may not be able to afford. Even IJAAF humble 2E bombing campaigns just burn up the supply. In an AI game not so long ago, I was bombing daily with ~500 IJAAF 2Es, all Helens/Sallys. The supply required numbers at their airbases jumped to a total of ~40k between them. If he wants to expend that amount of supply now (not to mention the HI to replace the planes, and the hard-to-replace pilots), it's going to really hurt him later.


RE: pool levels in general -

You're in the "dead zone" for the P-47 right now, aren't you? I just loaded up a game from the Allied side. The P-47D25 stops being replaced in 6/44, and the P-47N doesn't start until 3/45. I think I remember seeing this pop up in other threads.

You just started receiving the P-51D at 120/mo and the F4U-1D at 158. Maybe it's time to let the USMC pilots take over a bit of the burden?

Also, I agree with Bullwinkle a bit here. You could use other good planes at high altitudes if you weren't restricted to second-best rating. For example, the F4U-1D has a max alt of 39.3, which is still slightly higher than the -84r Frank and it's SR1 vs. the Frank's 3. Likewise, your P-38s are being prevented from doing their historical job as well by that HR - they have max alts near 40k, but their second-best band tops out at 31k. But you're 3 years in, so we can discuss that in a different thread/game .

Thanks for the input Lokasenna! [&o]

I havn´t actually been sweeping his bases since a few months back. He withdrew to Bangkok/Manila 2-3 months ago. After that I have been sweeping his LRCAP. Often over his troops though. Don´t know if that helps with pilots losses or if its own bases only?

I just did a quick and dirty count on HI costs. Assuming Erik has about 3 million HI in the bank now. If he spend 2 million of those on fighters alone thats 36 HI per plane right? So he can make 11.000 fighters just using HI in that is currently "in the bank"? Would this be a fairly accurate assumption?

You are right about the P47. But I have been really restrictive in my use of them and had a good pool of 450 P47s when the -25 version stopped running. The last 4 weeks just drained them including some 250 more that was in squadrons.

Keep in mind that he also has pilot training HI costs. If he had 3M HI in the bank, and spent 2M on fighters at 36 HI per plane, that's actually 55,555 fighters he could build... Obviously, no one is able to actually build that many, because there are so many other costs. Any NavSY he might still be doing (I actually can't think of anything worth it at this late date, except maybe subs and smaller craft?), plus 6 HI per Armaments/Vehicle, which he'll still need to run. Especially come August when the Soviets activate, at least so Pax claims (and I mostly believe him, though it depends on whether the IJ turns replacements on or off in Manchuria).

I think leaving only 1M HI to account for the other costs is too low. I would reverse it, and be surprised if he spent 1M HI in the next year on planes, considering he hasn't even spent that much on losses to date in 3 years.

Plus he has to account for "Are the B-29s going to torch my factories?"

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Plus he has to account for "Are the B-29s going to torch my factories?"

HI and plane pools. The Japanese version of off-map. Build early, sit back.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Keep in mind that he also has pilot training HI costs. If he had 3M HI in the bank, and spent 2M on fighters at 36 HI per plane, that's actually 55,555 fighters he could build... Obviously, no one is able to actually build that many, because there are so many other costs. Any NavSY he might still be doing (I actually can't think of anything worth it at this late date, except maybe subs and smaller craft?), plus 6 HI per Armaments/Vehicle, which he'll still need to run. Especially come August when the Soviets activate, at least so Pax claims (and I mostly believe him, though it depends on whether the IJ turns replacements on or off in Manchuria).

I think leaving only 1M HI to account for the other costs is too low. I would reverse it, and be surprised if he spent 1M HI in the next year on planes, considering he hasn't even spent that much on losses to date in 3 years.

Plus he has to account for "Are the B-29s going to torch my factories?"

But its quite unlikely he will run out of HI to produce planes? So that is not something to expect?

Going by what you and aztez says my only hope of making an impact on production is by burning the factories. Problem is I will have to do it by night...Hope it will work!

This whole deal kind of puts things in a perspective. Once I secure a B29 site within normal range of the HI I wonder if it won´t be counter productive to try and establish any kind of foothold closer to the HI. I won´t be able to do any daylight bombing without clearing the air of Japanese fighters. And that is most likely impossible to achieve. Even in late 45 I will only be getting around 700 USN/USAAF fighters. Assuming Erik pour everything he has into producing fighters I don´t see it as improbable that he would produce 1500 fighters per month.

That would require me to get a 2:1 advantage just to break even. And I would be fighting over his bases where he has radar and most likely Jets long before I get any.

Might be better to just sit back and let the B29s do the work at night? If that works of course.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
HI and plane pools. The Japanese version of off-map. Build early, sit back.

Ouff, didn´t think of that. Well, at least some good have come out of my losses. I´m preventing him to fill up his pools unhindered at least!

[Spidery]

Minor quibble. The Tonans can carry 16,435 Fuel. At 36 HI per single engine plane, that's only 456.53. Not insubstantial, but definitely not 1500 planes!

I meant for all 5 Tonans and assuming a mix between 2E and 1E.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Spidery

Minor quibble. The Tonans can carry 16,435 Fuel. At 36 HI per single engine plane, that's only 456.53. Not insubstantial, but definitely not 1500 planes!

I meant for all 5 Tonans and assuming a mix between 2E and 1E.

Ah, well that adds up nicely in that case.


RE: B-29s and bombing, especially at night - isn't that somewhat historical? Especially at the start of the bombing campaign? I don't think the Allies jumped right in on daylight strat bombing, not without suffering huge losses. But I'm not terribly familiar with either the campaign in Europe or the strat bombing campaign of Japan, so am a little unsure here. I just don't think that having to go in at night, at least for starters, is an unreasonable expectation.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]9th December -44[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

I hate this game sometimes! [:@]

------------------------
Luzon
------------------------
I had set my P47s to LRCAP a small base in the archipelago. I had a small LST TF sitting at the base awaiting ASW escort. Just to make sure you know. LRCAP, target base set, max range 2. Check.

Lo and behold when Erik sweeps Boac (4 hexes away) and a 80 of my P47 show up. At 15k. Really? [:@]

Afternoon Air attack on Boac , at 80,80

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 49 NM, estimated altitude 42,270 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-84r Frank x 49

Allied aircraft
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 80

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-84r Frank: 7 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 4 destroyed

First I thought I messed up and forgot to limit the range. Nope. For some reason 6 of the 8 squadrons decided, Hey lets ignore our set target and our max range and go over to this completely empty hex with NOTHING in it to meet that Sweep coming in despite a 20k altitude disadvantage. AAAARGGGHH! [:@]

Another 28 P47 lost for absolutely NOTHING. No doubt Erik is rubbing his hands in delight. [:@]

This was actually the only combat of the day besides the usual bombings in Thailand.

------------------------
Disappearing planes
------------------------
Hmm, all of the sudden almost 300 fighters are gone from Thailand. Another 200 is missing at Manila. ALL the bombers are gone too. This can´t be good...

I went through my CAP on all possible locations where he might strike. Can´t do much more than that.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Might be better to just sit back and let the B29s do the work at night? If that works of course.

This is the type of analysis and the game ballet where playing for VPs and observing the design really come to fruition. Many players never see it. Putting the HI economy on its rear is a far different task than knocking every plane out of the sky (over and over and over.) Plane whacking has to be done up close. Strategic war can be done at a distance IF you carefully balance all the forces. If one doesn't play for VPs the HI War is less useful.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

RE: B-29s and bombing, especially at night - isn't that somewhat historical? Especially at the start of the bombing campaign? I don't think the Allies jumped right in on daylight strat bombing, not without suffering huge losses. But I'm not terribly familiar with either the campaign in Europe or the strat bombing campaign of Japan, so am a little unsure here. I just don't think that having to go in at night, at least for starters, is an unreasonable expectation.

B-29s were first used by day at high altitudes. For a variety of reasons and a new CO that was changed to night incendiary attacks. Of course in real life the fighter threat was minimal compared to the game, and Iwo was available as a divert field.

[JocMeister]

No word from Erik on the 2nd MVR band HR yet. Got a note last night he would get back to me during the day with the turn and word on the HR.

I have a hunch Erik wants to keep it. As I said earlier he can now mass produce the Frank "R" getting access to the top MVR band. And I think he believes this is advantageous for him. I actually hopes he wants to keep it in. I have been doing a lot of thinking and looking at numbers this morning. Yes, Erik has been doing very good sweeping with the Frank over the last couple of days. But thats not the whole story. He has been sweeping my LRCAP down at 15-20k without radar and layered CAP. I feel quite confident once I those things sorted my CAP will deal promptly with his sweeps.

I´m going to use Spit VIIs down low at 20k (better MVR and slightly better speed than the Frank) and stack Corsairs above them at 31k and on top of that up at 37k I´ll put Hellcats. There is even a good chance the excellent climb of the Corsair will have time to climb above his sweeps. I´m positive the Hellcats will have time to do so with only 1k lower altitude. And its only 2,5 month before the P47N arrives. And it will be able to get above anything Erik has anyway.

If we remove the HR it will allow my P51s to go higher than his Franks which is of course an advantage for me. BUT. Removing it would allow a lot of Eriks fighters to go up to the top MVR band. ALL his navy fighters are now restricted to 31k tops. Removing the HR would get them up to max altitude. (Jack, Sam, and Shinden)

Whatever he chose to do I don´t think it will impact things too much actually. The Hellcat 5 version is just slightly slower than the Frank and with radar backup I think it will do quite well on the defensive. And I hope I will have Hellcats in sufficient numbers to take some losses in the process. The P51 should also do well with its excellent top speed.

The key is radar. I have only 2 sets on Luzon right now and none in central Thailand. Once that is taken care of I´m confident I can handle the situation defensively. Offensively I will do very little for now. Once the P47N arrives I will again have a means to dish out some punches.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]DEI[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________
No action here lately. Erik has pulled everything out. Can only find 40k troops on Java via recon. This might be the location of Eriks "missing planes" mentioned in the above update. Not much of value here though. A Fletcher TF, 2 Cargo TFs, a barge TF and a small assault ship TF. Thats it.

Depending on what Erik does here things might go faster than planned. I´m considering shifting a Cruiser TF and another Assault ship TF and some more LSTs to speed things up once Luzon is reinforced.

Would be nice to get Soerabaja harbour. I have a heavily reinforced OZ corps and a small US Corps slated for the liberation of Java. Waiting for prep basically.

[ny59giants]

Rather than Java, I would try a bold move....Hainan!![X(]
Invade at four bases - Samah and Kiungshan along with on the coast of Vietnam at Hue and Tourane.
All AFs can build up to size 9 and you would cut off any troops in IndoChina and beyond.
His troops defending around greater Bangkok would have to live on the supply they have as you drive South towards Cam Rahn Bay.
It would cut of his source of Oil to Japan by both sea routes and the overland route from either Saigon and/or Cam Rahn Bay through China.
Its only 4 days sailing from one of your Philippine Archipelago bases.
This is a game of logistics, logistics, logistics. Cut off his!![:D]