Questions about Soviet Naval Strategy

[hellfish6]

ORIGINAL: Mgellis


Let's try a well-known one...

What if the Soviets tried to run the blockade of Cuba in 1962? The American Navy fires on them, sinks a few of the ships, etc. Meanwhile, the one Foxtrot submarine that nearly fired nuclear-tipped torpedoes actually does fire them--would they be able to tell on sonar that ships are breaking up and other bad things are happening? That might be the reason for using their special weapons. Suffice that some American vessels go down, too.

Realistically, what happens now? Both sides fire all their ICBMs? Limited bomber strikes with conventional weapons against proxy states to indicate "a high level of displeasure" over what has happened--the U.S. bombs some Cuban bases and the U.S.S.R. bombs some Turkish ones? Kennedy gets on the phone to Khrushchev and, without either of them admitting they are both scared silly by what has happened, start to work out some kind of agreement? Something else? What do you think?

In all reality, the Soviet Union would be glowing for centuries. In November '62, the US nuclear arsenal vastly - VASTLY - outnumbered the Soviet. The Americans didn't realize it, though, apparently. Yes, the Soviets would get some shots off - especially in Europe - but the United States would have annihilated the Soviet Union (within 28 hours, if you believe the USAF estimation).

[mikmykWS]

Agree with Hellfish in that the Soviets would have taken the bigger hit and I think they knew that. Obviously the losses on both sides would been unthinkable but not world ending. If you look at some of the sales literature on weapons systems at the time (BMP-1, M-60) all promised nuclear survivability/hardening which means they thought forces would be charging through the nuclear dust post exchange to duke it out. I don't think that would be wrong although definitely short lived as logistics dried up.

In terms of your nuclear tipped Foxtrot starting a war I really don't know how fast information would travel had a tactical engagement gone nuclear in the deep blue. The lost of several ships would be taken very seriously but probably a far greater chance of Kennedy stepping back his response then lets say a nuclear warhead hitting Miami. My guess is the logical response would have been for those ASW forces to go nuclear which would have made their jobs significantly easier. Definitely not the right one though for human kind although my trip to St. Marty's this year would have been significantly warmer and cheaper.

Mike

[MR_BURNS2]

As for the campaign plot, how about Desert Shield?

Suppose The Iraqi, the 4th largest military in the world on paper, would have invaded Saudi Arabia in summer 1990, who could have stopped them?
Aircraft could be deployed fast but may not yet be fully operational, The first A-10s had no ammo but for the 30mm load they carried on the ride, Strike Eagles weren't fully operational yet, they made plans for interdiction with huge Mk-20 Rockeye loads borrowed from Oman.

There is a number of options, Phase 1 Arabs only, Phase 2 First NATO aircraft arrive, maybe some carriers come in range,...

[SSN754planker]

If the Iraqis went south into Saudi Arabia, we would have thrown aircraft in there and a few carriers, but aircraft cant take territory back, that would have required land forces. It would have been a completely different war, and a lot more costly in lives.

[Wiz33]

Unless Iraq was willing to just hit Saudi Arabia with part of the 7 divisions they sent against Kuwait. The mobilizing and prepping of a larger force would have raise a big red flag. The Saudi would probably request assistance and we might actually have time to get some properly supported asset into the area. This will then turn into a Reforger scenario. Can whatever we can get there in a hurry (82nd, 101st, MEU from Diego Garcia, CVBG) Hold long enough for heavy reinforcement to make it from Germany?

[mikmykWS]

US had 6 combatants and LaSalle in the PG during the invasion on August 2nd. Brits had a destroyer and oiler in the Gulf. The Independence group was in the Indian Ocean near Diego Garcia (close enough to strike on Aug 5) and the Eisenhower group was in the Med (close enough to strike late Aug 5th or 6th). 2 USAF F-15 Fighter squadrons arrived on the 7th as well as 5 E-3's. August 8th advanced parties of 82nd airborne arrive and MPS squadrons leave Guam and Diego Garcia with gear for MEF force.

So Iraqi forces completed Kuwait by the 3rd. Had the quality of the Iraqi army been a little different and Saddam's goal a little more strategic how long would it have taken them to drive south and take Saudi Persian Gulf cities and oil fields and then hit Riyahd? Given the time lines above could the US has stopped them? Probably unlikely unless the Saudi Army and NG really had a few good fights in them.

Mike

[hellfish6]

I don't think the Iraqi logistics capacity would have allowed them a rapid advance into Saudi Arabia. Think of Saudi Arabia as a kind of desert version of the Soviet Union. The Saudis could give up lots of useless sand and gravel and scrub desert to seriously screw up the Iraqi logistics system and then hit them. Or conserve themselves for a defensive fight that the Iraqis would have a hard time sustaining.

[SSN754planker]

The Iraqis didnt need to drive clear to Riyadh. All the important stuff (oil terminals, refineries, and Dharhan) is all within about 100 kilometers from the Kuwait border.

[hellfish6]

If they were just planning to raid it, sure. They could never have held it. That's 100km of naked supply likes to the Kuwait border they'd have to defend too. You'd have to knock out the Saudi regime to do any good, which means going to Riyadh.

[MR_BURNS2]

Whatever the "what if´s" might be, it would be good enough for a interesting scenario.
Since it was about Defence other Arab countries who didn´t actively participate in Desert Storm would probably also have come in.

Oman had some 20 Jaguars and 20 Hunters, mainly piloted by seconded RAF personnel,
Bahrain had a squadron of F-5s and some brand new F-16s, which might have been to new to be combat ready.
UAE 1 or 2 Squadrons of Mirage 2000,
Qatar some 12 Mirage F.1,
and whatever Kuwaiti aircraft escaped.

It would be a quite exotic mix.

[hellfish6]

I think most, if not all, of those countries were involved in ODS. They were the GCC forces. Fought with the Marines.

[MR_BURNS2]

You are right!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Order_of_battle_of_the_Gulf_War_ground_campaign

Also Egypt, Marocco, Syria and even Senegal.

[VIF2NE]

ORIGINAL: Sunburn
IIRC this was true for some of their ICBMs. A standard running joke was that SS-18 production rate was supposedly limited not by how many rocket motors they could make, but how many TI scientific calculators they could smuggle out of the US (and install them on the guidance packages). Maybe complete BS but has a ring to it.

The film of the Soviet Ministry of Defense to establish a system of control "Buran". When creating the work was of such a missile.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqq3EJYBZtY