Rise of the Sheep! JocMeister(A) vs. Obvert(J)

[JocMeister]

Oh, his fighters are on all bases alright. But I doubt they are all on CAP. Some are probably training. [:)]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]3rd-4th February -44[/font]
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Still very boring turns.

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Manilagrad
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We are starting to get some spectacular results from the bombardments. Here are some gems.

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Night Naval bombardment of Manila at 79,77

Allied Ships
BB Alabama
BB Massachusetts
BB Indiana
BB South Dakota

Japanese ground losses:
607 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 20 disabled
Non Combat: 23 destroyed, 16 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 17 (13 destroyed, 4 disabled)
Vehicles lost 5 (3 destroyed, 2 disabled)

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Morning Air attack on 102nd Division, at 79,77 (Manila)

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 22 minutes

Allied aircraft
Liberator B.VI x 46
Liberator GR.VI x 23
B-24J Liberator x 5
B-17E Fortress x 7
B-17F Fortress x 7
B-24D Liberator x 6
B-24D1 Liberator x 9
B-24J Liberator x 151
B-25D1 Mitchell x 3
B-25G Mitchell x 11
B-25H Mitchell x 43
B-25J1 Mitchell x 19
B-25J11 Mitchell x 6
P-38J Lightning x 16
P-38L Lightning x 46
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 30
PBJ-1D Mitchell x 11
PBJ-1H Mitchell x 3
PBJ-1J Mitchell x 3

Allied aircraft losses
Liberator B.VI: 10 damaged
Liberator GR.VI: 1 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 1 damaged
B-17E Fortress: 1 damaged
B-17F Fortress: 1 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 14 damaged
B-25G Mitchell: 1 damaged
B-25H Mitchell: 10 damaged
B-25J11 Mitchell: 1 damaged
PB4Y-1 Liberator: 1 damaged
PBJ-1H Mitchell: 1 damaged
PBJ-1J Mitchell: 1 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
700 casualties reported
Squads: 3 destroyed, 30 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 71 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 12 (1 destroyed, 11 disabled)
Vehicles lost 6 (1 destroyed, 5 disabled)


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Ground combat at Manila (79,77)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 7033 troops, 693 guns, 462 vehicles, Assault Value = 7323

Defending force 105493 troops, 1455 guns, 1036 vehicles, Assault Value = 1940

Japanese ground losses:
353 casualties reported
Squads: 18 destroyed, 13 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
Guns lost 5 (1 destroyed, 4 disabled)
Vehicles lost 5 (2 destroyed, 3 disabled)


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Morning Air attack on Manila , at 79,77

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 22 minutes

Allied aircraft
Liberator B.VI x 24
Liberator GR.VI x 17
B-17F Fortress x 3
B-24D Liberator x 3
B-24D1 Liberator x 12
B-24J Liberator x 145
B-25D1 Mitchell x 3
B-25G Mitchell x 6
B-25H Mitchell x 52
B-25J1 Mitchell x 17
B-25J11 Mitchell x 14
P-38J Lightning x 32
P-38L Lightning x 83
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 14
PBJ-1H Mitchell x 10
PBJ-1J Mitchell x 3

Allied aircraft losses
Liberator B.VI: 4 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 19 damaged
B-25G Mitchell: 1 damaged
B-25H Mitchell: 14 damaged
B-25J11 Mitchell: 1 damaged
PBJ-1H Mitchell: 5 damaged
PBJ-1J Mitchell: 1 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
795 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 21 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 125 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 10 disabled
Guns lost 16 (1 destroyed, 15 disabled)

Things are looking real good. After the last attack the raw AV ratio is 1:3,78 compared to 1:2,7 before the attack. Can´t complain about that. Still, the heavy allied losses are worrisome. But we are recovering nicely, about 150 AV per turn while the Japanese are losing about 30 per day. So we are getting there. Its just taking a bit longer then I wanted...

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Indochina
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We will reach Hanoi tomorrow. Looks empty!

Again...thats it. No more to report. [X(]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Manilagrad[/font]
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Here is the latest news from what actually turned out to be a Japanese Stalingrad. As can be seen in the screenshot Japanese AV has dropped again (-79) while Allied AV increased (+192)

Fatigue is down to 27 on the most fatigued unit. Next attack in about 4 days. This time against level two forts (hopefully!) [:)]

Out of curiosity (and boredom) I decided to track down Japanese losses at Manilagrad. I didn´t bother to look at the smaller units but here is a list of Japanese Divisions that are already wrecked or are about to.

Already wrecked at Manila:
6th ID
102nd ID
105th ID
107th ID
4th Tank division

About to be wrecked:
56th ID (50%)
8th ID (50%)
1st Tank Division (30%)

Thats 8 divisions minimum. I think I have missed one or two from the first attack. Against this are 10 Allied divisions. Considering we have about the same number of divisions and Erik have had the benefit of forts and terrain we have done very well.

Together with the Superstack outside Tavoy this will have cut the Japanese OOB with 22 IDs [X(] if I´ve counted correctly. That has to be devastating for Erik ability to defend what he has left.

I´m not sure it was the best of moves for Erik to reinforce Manila as heavily as he has done. He would probably have made a better stand somewhere that wasn´t so close to allied main facilities. I have 5 level 9 AF within range of Manila. Erik on the other hand can´t really support Luzon once he lost his only level 9 AF. I´m not going to give away anything to you Japanese players reading this ([;)]) but I know exactly where I would have put at least 5 of those 8 divisions instead! [:)] Either somewhere else or he should have built up inland Luzon with good airfields. There are two level 9 potential AFs outside naval gun range. Now he only had Manila at level 9 and Clark at level 8. That turned out to be the achilles heel of Luzon. For once I was right about something! [:D]

Stackinglimits
I´m starting to think not agreeing to stackinglimits earlier may have been a mistake on my part. If we had, I think I could have overcome this a lot faster. I could simply have overstacked like crazy eating the supply penalty (I have 3 million on Luzon so no problem). And/or rotated units in and out. Erik on the other hand couldn´t have built these superstacks which he has done so far. Good lesson for my other game with SL.

My reasoning behind not wanting to switch to SL in early 43 is that I also wanted to reap the benefit of doing "deathstars". Erik did this in China and massed a 350.000 army just taking base after base in China. I thought I would just do the same against him later on. But it doesn´t work like that. Because the Chinese sucks even more than the Japanese do. And in China I had zero supply across the board. Erik has (so far) been able to keep his units in supply and he proved in Burma that with supply and defensive terrain all you need is about 1/3rd of allied AV on the defensive to hold. Besides advancing as the allies is just as much about prepping and sea lift as numbers. Taking a deathstar and moving it from base to base with Amphibious landings simply takes too long.

I think with SL the allied ability to burn almost unlimited supply will really start to shine.

[Crackaces]

22 Divisions is a lot! Taking replacements for surviving LCU's, and buying LCU's and having them take replacements takes a whole lot of supplies. I believe the Moose commented early in this discussion of exactly how much stuff has to go into each division replaced. Plus drawing aircraft replacements from the pool requires supply. Eventually this has to put a strain on the IJ's ability to resist.

The ahistorical IJ aircraft OOB I suspect has come to some cost, and this cost is being balanced in other areas. Plus Strat bombing and attacking ports/airfield/airbases consumes supply. I also suspect that some dramatic tipping point will be reached where resistance will collapse due to a lack of supplies. At the very least I might suggest that the IJ are making some strategic decisions regarding supplies. At least in my last game at this point ..the IJ complained a whole heck of a lot that supplies were borked [8D]

I might suggest that The battle in Manila is such an example. The AV was drastically affected once the (-) supply indicator affected combat.

[ny59giants]

In the beginning of the war, as an Allied player, I don't care about how many hits my AF takes at Manila and Singapore. Its the number of supply hits that worries me. Having 90 bombers get double digit supply hits hurt.

[JocMeister]

Interestingly enough Erik seems to have taken a keen interest in supply expenditure lately. He wrote this in another AAR recently. This he said during a discussion on how much supply planes use:

ORIGINAL: obvert
All from Alfred's Logistics guide. Amazing how we can play through years of game and not really know these basics! [:)] Unless we have to, like I do now.

It was Pax actually who made a great post about the cost of rebuilding an ID.

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo
Now, the player has choices as to how and most especially WHEN to spend this HI. The easiest way to look at this is in 100K HI chunks. 100K HI will 'buy' you about 2800 1E ac equivalents or about 1 ID or 1 accelerated CV. OK, nice and easy.

So those 20ish divisions could have built him 56000 fighters. [X(] Wonder how much supply it will cost on top of that to get the IDs back to strength? I know the Chinese Corps gurgle supply when the respawn.

As Michael says the constant bombings of Manila should burn supply like crazy. Recently flak lessened a bit and the (-) supply modifier seems a good indication I´m burning his supply faster than he can get it to Luzon.

It will be really interesting to see what happens when the dormant Japanese army in China starts moving around and get into combat...

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Japanese divisions - known status[/font]
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Manila
1st Tank Division - 30% strenght
4th Tank division - wrecked
6th ID - wrecked
8th ID -50% strenght
56th ID -60% strenght
102nd ID - wrecked
105th ID - wrecked
107th ID - wrecked

Outside Tavoy
2nd Tank Division - Wrecked
2nd ID - Wrecked
2nd Guards ID - Wrecked
3rd Tank division - Destroyed
5th ID - Wrecked
16th ID - Wrecked
18th ID - Wrecked
21st ID - Wrecked
33rd ID - Wrecked
38th ID - Wrecked
39th ID - Wrecked
55th ID - Wrecked

Cam Ranh Bay (completely cut off)
9th ID - 100% strenght
4th ID - 100% strenght

Unknown
48th ID - 100% strength. Last seen at Bangkok. Probably in China now.

[Spidery]

Wonder how much supply it will cost on top of that to get the IDs back to strength?

About 300,000

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Spidery
About 300,000

Thanks, I´m assuming here that 300.000 supply for the Japanese player at this stage is quite a large amount?

[Quixote]

You assume correctly, sir.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Quixote

You assume correctly, sir.

Thats good to hear! [:)]

I tend to count supply in millions at this stage so its hard to imagine 300.000 being much. [:)]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]5th-6th February -44[/font]
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Finally things are starting to get rolling again!

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Manilagrad
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Troops are still recovering. FAT is down to 21. Two, possible three more days of rest. Meanwhile we got the best bombardment result in so far!

Morning Air attack on 56th Division, at 79,77 (Manila)

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 17,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 23 minutes

Allied aircraft
Liberator B.VI x 33
Liberator GR.VI x 16
B-24J Liberator x 3
B-17E Fortress x 3
B-17F Fortress x 7
B-24D Liberator x 3
B-24D1 Liberator x 11
B-24J Liberator x 166
B-25G Mitchell x 8
B-25H Mitchell x 28
B-25J1 Mitchell x 20
B-25J11 Mitchell x 6
P-38J Lightning x 31
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 27
PBJ-1D Mitchell x 13
PBJ-1H Mitchell x 3
PBJ-1J Mitchell x 3

Allied aircraft losses
Liberator B.VI: 5 damaged
Liberator GR.VI: 2 damaged
B-17E Fortress: 1 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 18 damaged
B-25H Mitchell: 4 damaged
B-25J11 Mitchell: 1 damaged
PBJ-1H Mitchell: 1 damaged
PBJ-1J Mitchell: 1 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
813 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 39 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 69 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 12 disabled
Vehicles lost 22 (2 destroyed, 20 disabled)

For some reason the naval bombardment didn´t go in today. Most likely user error. Allied raw AV is up (+153) while Japanese decrease (-29). I hope with two more days of rest the allied AV will be back on the same levels as before the last attack.

There is a lot of Japanese movement on Luzon right now. This coupled with some Japanese transport losses seems to indicate Erik is trying to get some troops out. I´ll do what I can to stop this but its almost impossible. I took a guess on what base he is using to fly stuff out from and ordered a LRCAP to catch the transports coupled with a strike at the AF. He is definitely flying troops to Takao with 250 transports stationed there.

In all honestly I´m not sure why he is bothering at this point. If supply really is dire he is using it twice by lifting stuff out. First the transports use supply and then he needs more to rebuild the fragments with loads of HI.

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Indochina/China
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The army reaches an empty Hanoi. Here we will rest for a few day while Haiphong is secured and recon gives us a clear picture of the opposition in front of us. I have only 4500 with this advance army. Another 5000 is a couple of weeks behind. I might make a dash into China nonetheless. In all honestly I don´t have a clue how much AV Erik still has left in China. I bet he has bought out A LOT of stuff.

I´m toying with the idea of letting 10-15k Chinese AV in Chunking make a try south. Supply will of course be dire for them. But I might be able to fly something in to them from Hanoi. That would leave 10-15k AV at Chunking. More then enough to make it 100% secure. What do you guys think? Moving them out would break our ceasefire agreement and make the central plains up for grabs for Erik. I do find it very unlikely he would try for it though with 10k allied AV at the gates of southern China.

The thought of opening another front in the heart of China makes me all tingly. But the advancing Chinese would be completely dependent on aerial supply.


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Java
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Tomorrow we reach the abandoned Soerabaja. The 21 size ship repair yard will come to good use! [:)]

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Stratbombing
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Another raid at Tokyo end in bloodbath as 31 B29s are shot down by 60 NFs. [:(]

Another 1000 VPs netted over two days though. Next raid I´m going to try and hit some HI directly instead and see what we can achieve. Hopefully this will allow my pools to recover a little bit.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]TOE Upgrades[/font]
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Can someone remind me what is need for a TOE upgrade to take place? Both my USAAF and USN BFs doesn´t upgrade their TOE.

Supply is plentiful (2,3 million) and 3(!) Command HQs are within range.

Is rest mode needed too?

[ny59giants]

TOE Upgrades - I turn on both Replacements and Upgrade option. Often I place them in Rest, but that isn't always needed, but I do it anyways.

China - I would quickly discuss with Erik the Chinese stalemate. Propose a date for it to end. Next, I would start from the west and move east to isolate Hong Kong in your landings, but try to move inland from those clear terrain hexes. Time for your Shermans to earn their pay and run wild. [:D] Just remember something I forgot again, bring along some AA units to keep the Helens at bay. [;)]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

TOE Upgrades - I turn on both Replacements and Upgrade option. Often I place them in Rest, but that isn't always needed, but I do it anyways.

Both replacement and Upgrade is on but I can´t get them to upgrade. [:(] Tried setting them to rest this turn to see if it works!

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]DEI[/font]
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Here is a map from the last turn. Looks like Erik will abandon Java without a fight. I´m considering pulling 3 of the 5 IDs to Luzon instead. They won´t be needed here. The 2 US ID and the armor I have almost decided on pulling out in a month or so. They will go to China.

I will also start cleaning up the map. There are lots of small bases I have bypassed. Some a quite big in VPs like Bathurst Island and Ambon (60 VP gain). There are also loads of 10-20 VP places. They will add up.

[Cpt Sherwood]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

TOE Upgrades - I turn on both Replacements and Upgrade option. Often I place them in Rest, but that isn't always needed, but I do it anyways.

Both replacement and Upgrade is on but I can´t get them to upgrade. [:(] Tried setting them to rest this turn to see if it works!

I think ( heavy on the think ) the unit has to be in rest mode, at a base, and in 2 x the command range of a Command HQ for the TOE to upgrade. Devices can upgrade anywhere and in any mode.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Cpt Sherwood
I think ( heavy on the think ) the unit has to be in rest mode, at a base, and in 2 x the command range of a Command HQ for the TOE to upgrade. Devices can upgrade anywhere and in any mode.

If you are right its the rest mode that is the decider. I switched them to rest last turn so hopefully they upgrade now! Really need the extra AS!

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]7th-9th February -44[/font]
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Flurry of turn today. Four or five I think? [:)]

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Manilagrad
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Tomorrow we go again. I really hope for a good result. I want the defense to really start collapsing. This was the last bombardment before the attack.

Ground combat at Manila (79,77)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 8257 troops, 749 guns, 542 vehicles, Assault Value =8228

Defending force 82837 troops, 1142 guns, 878 vehicles, Assault Value = 1639

Japanese ground losses:
92 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 6 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)

Allied AV has recovered back to 100 more AV then before the last attack while the Jap AV has dropped from 2763 to 1639. Promising! All I can do now is keep the fingers crossed! [:)]

Erik jumped in some Franks that got a shot at the unescorted bombers. But number was simply too low and only 2 allied bombers are lost for 16 Franks.

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Indochina
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Hanoi and Haiphong is secured. BFs will arrive in a couple of days together with another 2000 AV. A "small" scouting force move towards the Chinese border. Intel is still sketchy but it looks like Erik will continue to build superstacks. Another one is forming at Canton. 85.000 men and rising. This time I have room to maneuver though so he will either have to break the superstack(s) up or be surrounded. Nanning looks semi deserted with only 30k men there.

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DEI
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Soerabaja is secured without a fight. Armor moves forward to secure the rails as far as possible. This will allow then infantry to rail forward gaining time. I´ve decided to pull the two US divisions slated for Java to China instead. They will be of much better use there. I still have 3 OZ divisions and and an African ID in the area. Backed up by the OZ armor it will more than enough to secure Java and jump to Sumatra. I´m only doing this for the free VPs Erik leaves for me to pick up. [:)]

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Japanese counterattack
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Erik jumps into some rear bases in my LOC. About 100 Jap Kamis and fighters are lost during the day for no Allied losses. Good day that could have ended worse. This is bound to happen from time to time but I decided a long time ago to just eat the losses to gain the time not needed to be spent securing the entire LOC. I can take the losses without problems.

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TOE Upgrades
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Rest mode was the key. Every one is upgraded now. The extra AS and NavSupport will be a great help! [:)]

[RogerJNeilson]

Not about the current situation, but looking back on your pasting of the combat details.... how are you getting these screen caps during a replay?

Roger