Rise of the Sheep! JocMeister(A) vs. Obvert(J)

[poodlebrain]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

I´m sure my landing will provide a very good testbed for the BETAs and kamis. I hope it won´t be too unpleasant for me! [:D]

I'm going to venture here into the air model stuff where I usually get muddy. But here goes:

There's a lot of discussion about "beta" this and "beta" that and kamis. So far as I understand the betas have changed the last official patch in the areas of strike coordination. And that only. The rest of the air changes relating to altitude or anything else I thought were in the data changes Andy and Symon did off-line and which can be added to the game pre-start. (Along with the AA and ASW stuff from DBB.)

I am not here referring to the massive air data changes Symon is discussing now in the Scenario sub-forum. These were changes Andy discussed in various threads related to his Ironman work. For Lokasenna, I'm referring to the stuff we inserted into Scenario 2 in our game just before starting. Not the betas.

So, for this game, on-going now for years, I think there's only beta changes, not aircraft data changes, right? And all the betas do is affect coordination, not altitude effects. (4000 feet versus 100 feet, etc.) Kamis may not now, under the betas, come in 500 planes packages. But five 100-plane packages still wear down CAP's op points.

Am I really confused on this?

I think it would be more like 10 50-plane packages than 5 100-plane packages, at least from what I've seen. Even with an HQa present, it can be really hard to get LBA strike packages to go in all at once. I've seen units of 18 get split into 3 strikes with elements of other units in the same package, and all flying from the same base! It gets weird, but perhaps a better approximation of reality.

But yes, the point is that even though you won't see 500-plane strikes just thundering through CAP before they can shoot enough down, your CAP will still be worn out/scattered from the 5-10 strikes that come in instead.


@Joc - you must've gotten unlucky with that 95% disablements in a non-base hex. I did it recently with ~750 AV and only suffered about -30 or -40 AV. Early war, as Japan, I frequently land with minimal prep for the base I'm landing at. Losses occur, but they aren't that bad. If you find a weak point in his line where you can land 3000 AV with plenty of supply, and you suffer even say 500 AV in disablements on the landing, but he only has a few hundred there and has to scramble to get back to you... I'm just saying I'd rather do something like that than smash my fist into the wall that is Formosa.

He has to capture someplace that is useful for future operations, and Formosa certainly meets that requirement. At this point in the game Formosa is likely a wall with the thickness of an eggshell. It likely has no reserve force to reinforce any landing site, and any such force would be forced to move through clear terrain while within easy range of 2E bombers operating from northern Luzon. His landing force may suffer some casualties, but the ground campaign to follow should be very one-sided.

[JocMeister]

Bull, Lokasenna has it right. I guess the effects are hard to see early game where the strikes doesn´t contain many planes. I cut out 95% of the strike when I post results. Fragmentation is absolutely INSANE. In a normal day I have perhaps 30-50 fragments. Even the squadrons fragment. I have 3 plane pieces all over the place. [:)]

As I mentioned earlier (its probably in the AAR somewhere) I had a very big LBA strike take off against the KB in the Celebes sea. For some reason only about 100 planes were on CAP (zeroes) yet I couldn´t get through it. I can´t remember the exact numbers but I had something like 8-900 DBs/TBs and Fighters that took off for the KB. About 20 or so got through CAP. They were flying like 6-7 hexes from a level 9 AF. Yet they couldn´t even get through that cap because they arrived in 20 or so strikes. And about 2 or 3 of those got fighter protection. Sadly the fighters seem to be just as happy to escort at 3 plane strike as a 100 plane one. I have had 200 escorts protect 3 planes before. Not something to make you smile! [:D]

[Bullwinkle58]

Says the man who HAS 200 fighters. [:)]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

@Joc - you must've gotten unlucky with that 95% disablements in a non-base hex. I did it recently with ~750 AV and only suffered about -30 or -40 AV. Early war, as Japan, I frequently land with minimal prep for the base I'm landing at. Losses occur, but they aren't that bad. If you find a weak point in his line where you can land 3000 AV with plenty of supply, and you suffer even say 500 AV in disablements on the landing, but he only has a few hundred there and has to scramble to get back to you... I'm just saying I'd rather do something like that than smash my fist into the wall that is Formosa.

I think I took a screen of that in the AAR? In the DEI. Before I landed on Java. That ID is still recovering and will for quite some time.

Are you sure the Ampib bonus wasn´t active when you landed? [:)] But yes you do have a valid point. But at this stage suffering only 20% disablements would mean thousands of AV. And to be honest there isn´t that much places left to land. [:)]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

Says the man who HAS 200 fighters. [:)]

The offer for 2000 Wildkitten is still open you know... [;)]

(I actually only have 1200 left as I had to downgrade a lot of squadrons to keep them flying [:(])

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain
He has to capture someplace that is useful for future operations, and Formosa certainly meets that requirement. At this point in the game Formosa is likely a wall with the thickness of an eggshell. It likely has no reserve force to reinforce any landing site, and any such force would be forced to move through clear terrain while within easy range of 2E bombers operating from northern Luzon. His landing force may suffer some casualties, but the ground campaign to follow should be very one-sided.

My thinking too. Clear hexes. Level 9 AF within normal B29 range of the HI. And the last of the Japanese Army. Can´t be a bad position! [:)]

[ART11]

Hmm...
Maybe better try to land on southern tip in March even if it takes one month travel to another hex just to avoid possible big losses in Takao?
Or different target - do you have some recon data about Hokkaido/Sakhalin?
Sorry for my poor English.
ART

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

@Joc - you must've gotten unlucky with that 95% disablements in a non-base hex. I did it recently with ~750 AV and only suffered about -30 or -40 AV. Early war, as Japan, I frequently land with minimal prep for the base I'm landing at. Losses occur, but they aren't that bad. If you find a weak point in his line where you can land 3000 AV with plenty of supply, and you suffer even say 500 AV in disablements on the landing, but he only has a few hundred there and has to scramble to get back to you... I'm just saying I'd rather do something like that than smash my fist into the wall that is Formosa.

I think I took a screen of that in the AAR? In the DEI. Before I landed on Java. That ID is still recovering and will for quite some time.

Are you sure the Ampib bonus wasn´t active when you landed? [:)] But yes you do have a valid point. But at this stage suffering only 20% disablements would mean thousands of AV. And to be honest there isn´t that much places left to land. [:)]

Does the Amphib bonus help with unprepped landings? For all I know, it could.

Against the AI, I frequently landed Allied LCUs without 100% prep. I mean, they weren't in the 10s or 20s, but I'd say I felt ready to go when they were in the 50s-70s. With rest mode, you can get to that level in a month or 6 weeks. Also note that you don't suffer any disablement if you are unloading at a friendly base, and your amphibs will unload at the same rate (or faster, because there will be no CD fire?) there as over an enemy beach.

Basically, at this point that's talking about mainland China. Which still puts you in range of the Formosa AFs if you want to land anywhere that's useful, in terms of air base and range, right away (the coast near Amoy, Wenchow, etc.).

Or the Sakhalins, maybe.

If your main goal, other than VPs, with the next landing is a usable airfield, I'll bring it up again as I know Bullwinkle has in the past: what's wrong with the Bonins?

[JeffroK]

While I wouldnt recommend Formosa now, different situation from pre Luzon landings, time no starts to drive strategies. Having to spend months prepping for a landing forces your hand. (Maybe, Army HQ have to prep and if you pay the PP you pick up its prep levels. This would allow for 6th Army running Luzon while 8th Army is getting its plans for Formosa, maybe WITPXIV) Your options on a line towarnds japan are limited, realy only the Okinawa approach would replace Formosa.

Hengchun will make a suitable fighter field while you do the main landings elsewhere, might even be a viable feint if you are willing to grab it early and absorb some heat. My experience in DOWNFALL is that its a 2 mth hike to Takao.

(Its amazing how smashing a japanese strongpoint diverts the worries about fighter numbers problem.

[JocMeister]

Morning guys!

Man I love weekend mornings. Maria is home so I don´t have to take care of Ida. I can read the forum and do the turn in peace and quiet. Aaaah! [:)]

ART, I´m trying to get intel from the NOPAC area. I guess weather is bad because the planes won´t fly! [:)]

Lokasenna, If I´m not mistaken the whole Amphib bonus is about prep levels? It gives the Japanese the ability that every landing counts like they have 100% prep? The reason I don´t like the bonins is simple. Atolls. Yuck! [:(]

JeffK, I´m sorry but I don´t understand!

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Ki-83[/font]
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This Japanese toy showed up today. Not in combat though but an empty sweep. Not sure what to make of it. Fast little bugger! This feels more like an offensive plane then a defensive one due to the SR. If its anything like the P38 its going to spend a lot of time repairing. But then again most Japanese planes are high SR at this point. (Franks, Jacks George)

Having this one show up is a good indication that the Japanese economy is still thriving. But I´m not sure building one of these instead of two Franks is a good choice. I guess it will depend on what Erik can achieve with it!

Biggest allied concern at this stage is still lack of fighters. Its pretty annoying having to avoid air combat at this stage. But it what it is.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]14th February -45[/font]
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An interesting turn. More Japanese strikes.

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Luzon
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BBs and 4Es pound the defenders of Clark Field. The ground troops then breaks them up and the Japanese are once again in full flight!

Ground combat at Clark Field (79,76)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 111999 troops, 2171 guns, 2596 vehicles, Assault Value = 3871

Defending force 30555 troops, 375 guns, 129 vehicles, Assault Value = 395

Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 4

Allied adjusted assault: 1725

Japanese adjusted defense: 151

Allied assault odds: 11 to 1 (fort level 4)

Allied forces CAPTURE Clark Field !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), disruption(-), preparation(-)
supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
12919 casualties reported
Squads: 393 destroyed, 47 disabled
Non Combat: 792 destroyed, 31 disabled
Engineers: 79 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 231 (218 destroyed, 13 disabled)
Vehicles lost 132 (129 destroyed, 3 disabled)
Units retreated 17
Units destroyed 2

Allied ground losses:
493 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 50 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 25 disabled
Vehicles lost 6 (1 destroyed, 5 disabled)

Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

The defenders retreat to the next Japanese stronghold of Lingayen. A clear hex... I´m also happy to report that the 8th, 56th and 107 ID are now all down to 0 AV. No doubt Erik has already flown out a fragment of each. But they won´t have time to rebuild in time to change anything.

I also moved all bomber forward to Luzon from Iloilo. Only a gazillion mouse clicks...[:(]

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Japanese Strikes
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Again the Japanese launch an attack on my rear areas and LOC. Again allied losses are negligible. But it could have ended worse at Japanese planes bomb Tinian. For some reason some utter idiot had set all fighters to 0 CAP.... [:D] A B29 and a DB is lost on the ground. 8 runway hits. [:'(]

I also lose a 13 VP point tanker to a Kami attack. Stuff like this will continue to happen and I won´t do anything to prevent it. The time where stuff like this would make any kind effect is long gong. To be honest Erik is only wasting planes and 45 is lost on the day costing him more VPs then it gained. But I guess it feels good to do something at this point so I can´t say I blame him.

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DEI
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We have now reached the middle of Java and continue to move unopposed. I have some bombers here using the bypassed Japanese bases as a training ground.

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Stratbombing
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Tomorrow we pay a visit to Shanghai and the almost 200 HI there. Thanks to Powloon for reminding me! [:)] Its only a 24 hex strike to 105 B29s means 2100 500LBS bombs. First time that I can remember that the B29s will use their full bomb load outside Luzon.

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Indochina/China
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Definitely a new Superstack between Nanning and Hanoi. This one will be named Mk.5. Troop count has now risen to 95.000 troops. Only x2 defensive terrain though. And I have a plan to deal with this...and hopefully isolate this stack. There are no reserves available for Erik. Closest is Superstack Mk.4 around Canton/HK.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]DEI[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

Still completely unopposed here. Even Soerabaja was left empty. Which in turn left the repair yard intact for me. Thank you. [:)] I´ve started sending cripples towards the yard here.

Operations here are winding down. Two IDs including the very potent 7th OZ ID is being lifted out and are now preparing for phase 3 objectives.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Indochina/China[/font]
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[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Japanese Superstacks[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

Here is a list if you want to keep track of which one I mean when I mention them.

Mk.1 - Outside Tavoy. Originally 300.000 men but now reduced to 42 AV.

Mk.2 - Luzon/Manilla 280.000 men. Now reduced to 200.000 men at Lingayen. No longer a threat

Mk.3 - Formosa 300.000 men

Mk.4 - Canton/HK - 180.000 men.

Mk.5 - Outside LangSon - 95.000 men. Possibly being reinforced.

Mk.6 - Singapore, 46 Units - 90.000 men.

Obviously I don´t know what is in Mk.3 to 6. But I do know that the absolute best of the IJA was in the Tavoy stack. There was also some good IDs on Luzon. I don´t know how many more decent divisions the Japanese have at this point? Arn´t a lot of them pretty crappy ones with a very light TOE? I´m guessing he still have some decent ones in China. But obviously he has already bought out the best of them. I have seen and destroyed a lot of BDE/RGTs too. At this stage they are pretty much useless.

EDIT: I looked through Japanese divisional reinforcements for 44 and 45. He gets a lot of them. A LOT. Probably something like 50 divisions. Almost all arrives restricted on the HI with 25-35 EXP. Some unrestricted do arrive. But they are coming with 35 EXP and a very light TOE. Only a few guns and 300 or so inf squads. At this stage I think they will be mostly free VPs. The lack of AT guns must be killing them just as the Chinese are killed early game.

[JeffroK]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Morning guys!

Man I love weekend mornings. Maria is home so I don´t have to take care of Ida. I can read the forum and do the turn in peace and quiet. Aaaah! [:)]

ART, I´m trying to get intel from the NOPAC area. I guess weather is bad because the planes won´t fly! [:)]

Lokasenna, If I´m not mistaken the whole Amphib bonus is about prep levels? It gives the Japanese the ability that every landing counts like they have 100% prep? The reason I don´t like the bonins is simple. Atolls. Yuck! [:(]

JeffK, I´m sorry but I don´t understand!

You have to learn to stalk strine!

While I would have recommended Formosa before you landed on Luzon, I think that the best time has passed, but you have limited options as lines of approach to japan are limited.

You also have to prep, can you afford to waste a few months to change targets. I sometimes hate the prep process but understand the reasons. However is it more realistic to have Army level HQ prep and after paying PP to reassign LCU takeon the prep the HQ has done. This would allow a bit more flexibility but also costs a lot. Similar to the USN 3rd Fleet & 5th Fleet, same ships, different staffs.

I also noted on the more positive writings in a time where you are liberating bases against the time when your aircraft pools were showing zeroes!

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: JeffK

You have to learn to stalk strine!

While I would have recommended Formosa before you landed on Luzon, I think that the best time has passed, but you have limited options as lines of approach to japan are limited.

You also have to prep, can you afford to waste a few months to change targets. I sometimes hate the prep process but understand the reasons. However is it more realistic to have Army level HQ prep and after paying PP to reassign LCU takeon the prep the HQ has done. This would allow a bit more flexibility but also costs a lot. Similar to the USN 3rd Fleet & 5th Fleet, same ships, different staffs.

I also noted on the more positive writings in a time where you are liberating bases against the time when your aircraft pools were showing zeroes!

Stalk strine? [:D]

You are certainly right about Formosa being past the best due date. But I´m not convinced postponing the next invasion for 3 months is my best move right now. During that time I could actually land on Formosa and reprep them while I clean it from Japanese troops.

I do feel a bit more positive. Its nice grabbing bases and racing through Java and Indochina. And Eriks air force can´t reach me on Luzon so I get to be mostly left alone in the air. Thats has sort of drenched the frustration a bit. [:)]

[JocMeister]

Regarding Formosa we might end up scrapping the whole operation. I just got the first recon from Hokkaido. I have reconned HALF the bases and found 11.000 troops. [X(]

Its not a typo! Its 11.000 troops. [X(] Eleven thousand troops. So far. I should get a better picture in the coming days when all the bases are reconned. If I don´t find another supderduper stack here I´ll drop everything and race as fast as the ships can go to Hokkaido....

[ART11]

Good to hear:-)
It wont be easy - IJN main bases are really close, so reaction will be fast. GreyJoy's old ARR is good example how to organize such operation with some "maskirovka" elements.
There are 2 options in my opinion now:
1. Hokkaido
2. move your US divisions into China mainland (through Cam Ranh bay or Haiphong - not to land in Jap controlled port), free Chinese troops, and try to conquer Korea and activate soviets earlier.
Regards
ART

[Crackaces]

move your US divisions into China mainland (through Cam Ranh bay or Haiphong - not to land in Jap controlled port), free Chinese troops, and try to conquer Korea and activate soviets earlier.

There are mixed messages in this thread about VP's and whether these players care about them or not. However, one reason for the China strategy despite poor roads and infrastructure [i.e. lack of supply] is to reduce the IJ opportunity for increasing the denominator part of the equation. As mentioned before in this thread, Allied auto-victory is Allied Points / IJ Points. So if a landing sinks a bunch of Allied ships .. the Allies have to get 2X the points to counterbalance the losses. That assumes that the Allies have achieved the 2:1 ratio ...

So my strategy focused on China at this point in my last PBEM game only because the game parameters dictated that I limited VP exchanges favorable to the IJ.

The VP's assigned to things might not align with the same historical value and thus a use of superior naval forces at this point has to be considered with expected losses from the situation. My own evaluation is that the IJ can extract better than the 2:1 and even though the IJ take a whipping the victory can be Pyrrhic in the long run.

That all said, are there bases that can be invaded by sea that do not risk a Pyrrhic victory?