Rise of the Sheep! JocMeister(A) vs. Obvert(J)

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: castor troy

ORIGINAL: witpqs

If recon tells you there are 30,000 men on that island there will be 15,000-20,000 at best...

I've never noticed that - where did you get that idea?

from playing? pure playing experience [;)], it's always less than recon tells you. Then you count the number of units (which recon usually is excellent at) and you get an estimation.

Example: recon says 50,000 troops at at base, 8 units. Ok, I'd guess roughly 30,000 troops really there, 1 division, couple of AA units (depending on how my air attacks look like), a HQ perhaps, some base forces and constr. units. So that would then come down to 400-500 av at best (depending on which IJ div is there as they range from 300-400+ av). Ok, I'll need three US Inf divs plus armor and support and the base will easily fall. Rinse and repeat.

Of course you can always use smart bombs and identify each and every unit at the target by sending in a couple of hundred bombers on ground attack. The way the game works noone should ever be surprised what the enemy really has at a target when it comes down to combat capable LCU because they would all show up during air attacks.

That's not my experience at all. In fact, until recon has run for several days with good DL, I have found the opposite - recon says 5,000 and when you get there you find 12,000!

[JocMeister]

I had 30-33k for 2-3 days now. I´ll know tomorrow how many there really where.

Now I just have to chance homeport to Manila on 70 something subs. Fun fun fun! [:(]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Destination Okinawa - Day Five[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

An excellent day! Not a single strike flew against the fleet nor was any hostile ships encountered besides a bunch of motor launches! [:D]

There were some CD fire received during unloading. At first I was glad I had embedded the BBs but later realized it was overkill as the shells bounced of CL Helena without penetrating. Ah well. Better safe then sorry! [:)]

Pre-Invasion action off Naha (95,66) - Coastal Guns Fire Back!
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

803 Coastal gun shots fired in defense. [X(]

Allied Ships
BB Colorado, Shell hits 3
BB Maryland
CL Phoenix, Shell hits 2
CL St. Louis
DD Perkins, Shell hits 1
DD O'Brien
DD Hammann, Shell hits 1
DD Satterlee
AKA Oberon, Shell hits 1, on fire
AKA Torrence
APA President Polk
DD Downes

Japanese ground losses:
79 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 3 destroyed, 8 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Allied ground losses:
274 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 11 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 41 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled

During the whole amphibious operation I lose and LCI and a LCI(R). That it. A very good day! [&o] Almost lost an entire beach prep TF (Rocket, gun and mortar LCIs) though as they after bombarding wanted to retire NORTH of Luzon back to Manila. My fault as I forgot to change the homebase to Yap. [X(] Interestingly enough nothing flew against them despite being only 7 hexes from Eriks main hive and 1000 fighters and 500 bombers. Wonder if he has restricted the range for some reason?

Hopefully tomorrow will be as quiet as we will withdraw the fleet. I was pretty amazed when I opened the turn and find out EVERYTHING has unloaded including 70.000 supply. Those Amphib BDEs rock! [&o] I still have some 50.000 supply left on the APA/AKAs but there is no need to keep them in the danger zone any longer. So we will escort the Amphibs out of danger and meet up with a bunch of LSTs and AKs that carry supply and BFs. While I already have anything needed on Naha to put a good CAP up (radar, AS, AirHQ) I have some brutal AA and big CD guns and loads of engineers I want to unload before retiring the fleet and leaving Naha on its own for a while.

I also decided to withdraw the subs. While not one is sunk yet (amazingly! [X(]) about half of them have sustained damage by bomb hits and I already have had to pull back 10-15 of them.

Tomorrow Naha will definitively be secured. [:)]

Ground combat at Naha (95,66)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 9272 troops, 195 guns, 72 vehicles, Assault Value = 370

Defending force 140122 troops, 2287 guns, 3404 vehicles, Assault Value = 4999

Japanese ground losses:
435 casualties reported
Squads: 5 destroyed, 44 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 12 (1 destroyed, 11 disabled)
Vehicles lost 2 (1 destroyed, 1 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
10 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
15th Ind.Mixed Regiment
108th/B Division
Yokosuka 1st SNLF
108th/A Division
108th/C Division
100th Ind.Hvy.Art Battalion
27th Ind. AA Battalion
91st Field AA Battalion
19th JAAF Base Force
26th RF Gun Battalion
100th Field AA Battalion
19th RF Gun Battalion
80th Field AA Battalion
81st Field AA Battalion
5th Medium Mortar Battalion
44th IMB Artillery Battalion
32nd Army
1st Machine Cannon AA Battalion
79th Field AA Battalion
42nd Air Defense AA Battalion
Nansei Shoto JNAF Base Force
46th Air Defense AA Battalion
26th Air Flotilla
Okinawa Naval Base Force
51st JAAF AF Bn

Defending units:
671th Tank Destroyer Battalion
38th Infantry Div /8
3rd NZ Armoured Sqn
1st Cavalry (Spec) Cavalry Division
1st Marine Division
XIV Corps Combat Engineer Regiment
716th Tank Battalion
77th Infantry Division
37th Infantry Div /9
192nd Tank Battalion
I Corps Cmbt Engr Rgt /5
93rd Infantry Div /10
31st Infantry Division
1st USMC Tank Battalion
2nd USMC Tank Battalion
32nd Infantry Div /9
CenPac Amphib Tank Brigade
4th Marine Div /8
24th Infantry Div /8
225th Field Artillery Battalion
Southwest Pacific
2nd USMC Field Artillery Battalion
XI US Corps /1
III US Amphib Corps
Sixth US Army
3rd USMC Air Wing Base Force
I US Corps
2nd RAA Jungle Regiment
205th Field Artillery Battalion
9th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
XI Corps Artillery
XIV US Corps
16th NZ AA Bde /6

[JocMeister]

WOW. [X(]

Just saw the replay for the next turn. Erik made a dash forward with the KB and at least some of the BBs! [X(] They ended up right in the path of all my subs moving back to Manila. [:D] I lost perhaps 3-5 subs. Managed to put a single torp in Unryuo (no extra message) and two in Nagato. No message there either!

The stricken DDs got blasted but no other combat took place. Its a shame I decided not to hang around with the CV Fleet. Then again we would have another of those silly 8 hex strikes on our hands...

I also struck at a 4DD TF probably going after the stray LCI TF. Only 2 DDs where hit. One with a 1000LBS bomb so she is probably in sinking condition.

I also punished Erik for not paying attention around Palembang. More on that tomorrow. Now I´m going to try and get a good nights sleep. I need to figure out what to do tomorrow.

[DOCUP]

Nice op.

[CaptBeefheart]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

My friends just moved to Woodbridge. The Calvert Woodley store I mentioned earlier is in NW DC, on Connecticut Ave. I'll ask them if there's a good beer shop nearby, but I kind of doubt it...

Thanks a lot, Lokasenna. I think that's where I'll be heading. My dad said Virginia still has the archaic ABC store system, and I don't think the government will have the latest and greatest craft beer.

EDIT: Nice Okinawa operation, Joc.

Cheers,
CC

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Destination Okinawa - Day Six[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

Is mentioned in the previous note the KB + Battle line surged forward and took position just east of Formosa (See screen). This had the fortunate effect that they ran in to the gaggle of subs returning to Manila! [:D] I contemplated sending the subs due south and then around the southern tip of Luzon but ruled it out since I didn´t want to set up waypoints for 70 something subs! Sometime its good to be lazy! [:D]

We get loads of attacks in including two tries on the Hiyo but misses. We do have some luck though!

Sub attack near Taihoku at 89,63

Japanese Ships
CV Unryu, Torpedo hits 1
BB Kongo
CLAA Natori
DD Shimozuki
DD Hamanami
DD Okinami
DD Makinami
DD Akigumo

Allied Ships
SS Razorback, hits 3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack near Iriomote at 89,64

Japanese Ships
BB Nagato, Torpedo hits 2
BB Mutsu
DD Kiyoshimo
DD Asashimo

Allied Ships
SS Sealion II, hits 2, heavy damage

Eriks ASW TFs do wreck havoc on my subs whom many where already damaged. 3 subs are sunk outright and about 5-8 more are in sinking condition.

My two stricken DDs are also picked off and sink right away. Erik also sent some DDs in most likely to hit the LCI TF that strayed too close to Formosa. A appallingly small and unsuccessful Allied strike goes after them.

Morning Air attack on TF, near Ishigaki at 91,71

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 31 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Allied aircraft
F6F-5 Hellcat x 67
SB2C-4 Helldiver x 55

Allied aircraft losses
SB2C-4 Helldiver: 1 damaged

Japanese Ships
DD Akikaze
DD Okikaze
DD Hokaze, Bomb hits 4, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Sawakaze, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage

The main event of the day is of course the attack on Naha.

Ground combat at Naha (95,66)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 122885 troops, 2122 guns, 3063 vehicles, Assault Value = 5078

Defending force 20942 troops, 584 guns, 215 vehicles, Assault Value = 331

Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 5

Allied adjusted assault: 5460

Japanese adjusted defense: 213

Allied assault odds: 25 to 1 (fort level 5)

Allied forces CAPTURE Naha !!! [&o][&o][&o]

Japanese aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5b Zero: 5 destroyed
Ki-84r Frank: 8 destroyed
Ki-100-I Tony: 14 destroyed
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 5 destroyed
N1K2-J George: 4 destroyed
B6N2a Jill: 3 destroyed

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), disruption(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
4571 casualties reported
Squads: 151 destroyed, 38 disabled
Non Combat: 462 destroyed, 286 disabled
Engineers: 127 destroyed, 14 disabled
Guns lost 281 (165 destroyed, 116 disabled)
Vehicles lost 135 (129 destroyed, 6 disabled)
Units retreated 20

Allied ground losses:
1080 casualties reported
Squads: 8 destroyed, 87 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 57 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 18 disabled
Guns lost 40 (2 destroyed, 38 disabled)
Vehicles lost 75 (16 destroyed, 59 disabled)

Something worrying is revealed when I open the turn though. Supply is in the RED?! [X(] When I check the base only 23.000 supply is listed in the base. Before the attack I have 69.800! This is the second time this happens! Is this a bug that I should report to michealm?

With 23.000 supply but the actual base in red will I be able to fly CAP? [&:]

------------------------
Day Seven - Tomorrow
------------------------
I havn´t started on the turn yet and needs to decide on a course of action. I narrowed it down to two option.

Option One
I ignore the forward dash completely. Of course I would have to make contingencies if this really is a hail Mary all out attack. This means I use my CVs defensively and just get on with the job. The job being to get the BFs and more supply to Naha while covering the amphibs to safety.

Option Two
I react to the IJN. If so the only thing that makes sense would be to try and initiate battle with the KB. In all honestly I´m a bit reluctant to do this. Not because of fear of the IJN but rather because it would give the IJN a significance it no longer have. Do I allow myself to start reacting on what Erik does all of the sudden?

The thought of finally dealing a death blow to the KB is enticing. But do I have any reason at all to seek battle? And on Eriks terms? My brain says "no".

But there an interesting detail here. When talking about the sleepless night last night Erik responded in an email by saying this something like "covered by 2000 planes". Someone has failed to do his homework. The actual number is 3000. Could this faulty knowledge be influencing him in his moves.

What do you guys think?

[Speedysteve]

Personally I would go for option 1. The main aim is to get Okinawa up and running and to begin to dominate the local region. If you get that accomplished the Empire (what's left of it) is in peril. As you say the KB is an annoying inconvenience. Nothing more If you can I'd get the CV's in a position so they're covering your support forces BUT they're able to attack the KB is he stays put/advances.

My 2p.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Speedy

Personally I would go for option 1. The main aim is to get Okinawa up and running and to begin to dominate the local region. If you get that accomplished the Empire (what's left of it) is in peril. As you say the KB is an annoying inconvenience. Nothing more If you can I'd get the CV's in a position so they're covering your support forces BUT they're able to attack the KB is he stays put/advances.

My 2p.

Thanks Speedy! Sounds like we are on the same page in our thinking. [:)]

[koniu]

Something worrying is revealed when I open the turn though. Supply is in the RED?! When I check the base only 23.000 supply is listed in the base. Before the attack I have 69.800! This is the second time this happens! Is this a bug that I should report to michealm?

With 23.000 supply but the actual base in red will I be able to fly CAP?

You still be able to fly CAP as long as You have supplies in base.
Base in Red mean that You have below 100% requirements of all units in hex. Yellow mean that You have below 200% requirements(200% is required to use drop tanks etc) Tomorrow it should be be yellow or without color because today You was attacking.

Usually japanise ID(not know about allies) have normal requirement of ~1200 tons, supply, but after attack i next turn it is ~2500 tons. Tomorrow total base requirement for supplies will back to normal.

As for supplies level, some where us to attack, some where destroyed because You was not owner of base and was treated like dot base for You, many where drained by LCUs because after attack they jump double supply requirements after attack, if You look and LCU they should be in wite but have 2500k supplies or more instead of ~1200.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: koniu
You still be able to fly CAP as long as You have supplies in base.
Base in Red mean that You have below 100% requirements of all units in hex. Yellow mean that You have below 200% requirements(200% is required to use drop tanks etc) Tomorrow it should be be yellow or without color because today You was attacking.

Usually japanise ID(not know about allies) have normal requirement of ~1200 tons, supply, but after attack i next turn it is ~2500 tons. Tomorrow total base requirement for supplies will back to normal.

As for supplies level, some where us to attack, some where destroyed because You was not owner of base and was treated like dot base for You, many where drained by LCUs because after attack they jump double supply requirements after attack, if You look and LCU they should be in wite but have 2500k supplies or more instead of ~1200.

Thanks koniu! You are 100% correct! [&o] All units have double their usual requirements!

Amazingly how you can play this game every day for 6 years and still learn new things! [:)]

[castor troy]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: castor troy

ORIGINAL: witpqs


I've never noticed that - where did you get that idea?

from playing? pure playing experience [;)], it's always less than recon tells you. Then you count the number of units (which recon usually is excellent at) and you get an estimation.

Example: recon says 50,000 troops at at base, 8 units. Ok, I'd guess roughly 30,000 troops really there, 1 division, couple of AA units (depending on how my air attacks look like), a HQ perhaps, some base forces and constr. units. So that would then come down to 400-500 av at best (depending on which IJ div is there as they range from 300-400+ av). Ok, I'll need three US Inf divs plus armor and support and the base will easily fall. Rinse and repeat.

Of course you can always use smart bombs and identify each and every unit at the target by sending in a couple of hundred bombers on ground attack. The way the game works noone should ever be surprised what the enemy really has at a target when it comes down to combat capable LCU because they would all show up during air attacks.

That's not my experience at all. In fact, until recon has run for several days with good DL, I have found the opposite - recon says 5,000 and when you get there you find 12,000!

lol! Of course you need a good DL but how hard is that to achieve? All my targets have DL 9 or 10, from end 42 I have at least two dozen recon flights per phase minimum and every base is well reconned. With good recon (I wouldn't expect anything else than good recon to be honest) it is exactly how I described and always has been that way.

[JocMeister]

I´ve decided to go with my gut and pretty much ignore the IJN. The cargo TF will turn straight south to avoid any raiders or the KB if Erik has decided to do an crazy suicide attack.

But I deem a move by the IJN into the Philippine Sea extremely unlikely. Erik will operate his fleet within LBA. Anything else would be completely insane and stupid. Nonetheless the TFs that can reach the safety of the CV fleet will scurry in under its CAP. Any TF unable to do so will head due South.

Fuel is good among the CV fleet. Around 80% on the CV/CVEs but only 45-50% among the escorts. So we will continue as planned. We move south and rendezvous with the TFs carrying the BFs and Fuel. We reload and refuel from the replenishment fleet and then head back into Naha. I have 800 engineers already on Naha and the AF is already operational. I´m not going to move anything in yet though. Erik might try an bombardment here and Fighters are way to valuable to get blown up in Naval bombardments.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: castor troy
lol! Of course you need a good DL but how hard is that to achieve? All my targets have DL 9 or 10, from end 42 I have at least two dozen recon flights per phase minimum and every base is well reconned. With good recon (I wouldn't expect anything else than good recon to be honest) it is exactly how I described and always has been that way.

My above attack on Naha seems to confirm your observations.

I had 30-33k troops listed by Recon on Naha. Obviously I had great DL on the base. In the actual attack though only 21k is listed. But I guess it depends on what is counted in that number? Are ALL the units at the base included in in the combat summary? Or are units that lack AV, Guns or AFVs not included?

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Rest of the World 8th-12th March 1945[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

While there wern´t a huge amount of things happening. Some noteworthy events took place.

------------------------
China
------------------------
The deliberate attack outside Nanning did worse then expected but nothing disastrous.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 71,56 (near Lang Son)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 224287 troops, 4249 guns, 5020 vehicles, Assault Value = 8601

Defending force 114447 troops, 1108 guns, 577 vehicles, Assault Value = 3711

Allied adjusted assault: 4152

Japanese adjusted defense: 8917

Allied assault odds: 1 to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
6330 casualties reported
Squads: 47 destroyed, 505 disabled
Non Combat: 21 destroyed, 242 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 83 disabled
Guns lost 262 (50 destroyed, 212 disabled)
Vehicles lost 69 (13 destroyed, 56 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
13433 casualties reported
Squads: 91 destroyed, 1132 disabled
Non Combat: 28 destroyed, 488 disabled
Engineers: 34 destroyed, 541 disabled
Guns lost 191 (24 destroyed, 167 disabled)
Vehicles lost 455 (35 destroyed, 420 disabled)[

Some things to note here though. Eriks adjusted AV was just over two times the RAW AV. The allied adjusted AV was only halved. This is a very good indication I might actually be able to break through here if I wanted... But I´m going ahead as planned and I´m pulling out the Corps I need for the landing.

Allied losses might look bad but they are spread out evenly and will recover quickly. RAW AV was only down by 1200 and I already recovered 250 back in a single turn.

I can recover and hopefully Erik can´t. The 60th Japanese ID was completely trashed and was down to something like 50 AV after the attack. I might try another attack in a couple of days.

------------------------
South China Sea
------------------------
I spotted a lone ship here again. I´m tired of this now. I sent out some DDs and DEs to take up patrol.

------------------------
Luzon
------------------------
Luzon is now finally clear of all Japanese troops. Allied troops are moving back towards Manila. Although very unlikely of a Japanese counter attack I have put a armored force in the center of Luzon backed up by a Army Corps.

------------------------
Burma/China
------------------------
The air support (200 4Es) get into action and close Tsuyung AFs. We later plaster the troops in the mountain causing almost 800 Japanese casualties in a single day. Erik didn´t bring any AA with him... [:'(]

I just realized I forgot to stand the bombers down today though. Might take a pounding tomorrow if Erik decides to send in Fighters on LRCAP...crap.


------------------------
Palembang
------------------------
Erik hasn´t been paying attention here and neglected to have a CAP up despite several TFs at the base. On the 12th we struck. Sadly two BIG TFs has just left the port. We still managed to bag a good haul of ships though. They won´t change anything but sinking ships is always nice. [:)]

[JocMeister]

After Eriks comment in GJs AAR I had to check my own pilot situation. I don´t have that many pilots over 90 EXP actually. Only 23 of them.

But I did discover my previous 98 EXP guy finally had bumped to 99. Highest I have ever seen. Can he go to 100 or is 99 max? [:)]

[ny59giants]

Palembang - its only a size 4 port, so Japan can only use those small to medium capacity TKs to load fuel quickly. This raid should end attempts to get any fuel out and run your blockade by going through the South China Sea.

Okinawa - I agree with the need to take bases in this area and bring in your air force. Erik would have to attack with both KB and LBA to try to slow you down. Is he willing to risk KB?

Good Luck here sir!!

[Crackaces]

The blockade also means a continuous drain on fuel with the choice of feeding HI/LI or fleet actions.
I think it is great he is running around BB's consuming fuel [;)]

Speedy wrote:

Personally I would go for option 1. The main aim is to get Okinawa up and running and to begin to dominate the local region. If you get that accomplished the Empire (what's left of it) is in peril. As you say the KB is an annoying inconvenience. Nothing more If you can I'd get the CV's in a position so they're covering your support forces BUT they're able to attack the KB is he stays put/advances.

My 2p.

Just to reinforce his thoughts:

Even though you are not playing for points .. I might have the equation in mind that you need to sink twice as many points
points in any engagement. Thus not engaging his KB and letting them burn fuel might be a more positive expected
value than exchanging CV's/CVE's. Plus you got the IJ to sail into the middle of a bees nest of submarines ...[8D]

I think supply will be the IJ's downfall in China. Each attack is absorbing more supply,
and over time just like the Allies in 1942 ... there is resistance then things eventually collapse...

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Palembang - its only a size 4 port, so Japan can only use those small to medium capacity TKs to load fuel quickly. This raid should end attempts to get any fuel out and run your blockade by going through the South China Sea.

Okinawa - I agree with the need to take bases in this area and bring in your air force. Erik would have to attack with both KB and LBA to try to slow you down. Is he willing to risk KB?

Good Luck here sir!!

Thanks Michael! Certainly looks like he is willing to! [:)]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

The blockade also means a continuous drain on fuel with the choice of feeding HI/LI or fleet actions.
I think it is great he is running around BB's consuming fuel [;)]

Just to reinforce his thoughts:

Even though you are not playing for points .. I might have the equation in mind that you need to sink twice as many points in any engagement. Thus not engaging his KB and letting them burn fuel might be a more positive expected
value than exchanging CV's/CVE's. Plus you got the IJ to sail into the middle of a bees nest of submarines ...[8D]

I think supply will be the IJ's downfall in China. Each attack is absorbing more supply,
and over time just like the Allies in 1942 ... there is resistance then things eventually collapse...

Good point about the VPs. Didn´t think of that! While "we" don´t play for VPs "I" do as a motivator right now. So lots of my choices are based on it. [:)]

I have exactly the same outlook on China. Some people think China is a waste of time right now. It might be but then again every supply point I can burn here is a supply point he can´t use somewhere else. Somewhere that might be important! And with the huge amount of Japanese troops here supply burns FAST. I burned through almost 100k in only 2 weeks. Even if he burns only half that, or a third, how long can he keep that up?

In a couple of turn the bombers will get to work too. And when all those squads disabled by air attacks are resting....schluuuurp! [:D]