Rise of the Sheep! JocMeister(A) vs. Obvert(J)

[paullus99]

Think of it this way - he's not in any position to attack, so he either has to stand or retreat....eventually, he's going to run out of room - which still works in your favor.

Think of the Atlanta Campaign as your guide - you can still win without having to fight a major battle...if you can force Obvert to vacate strong defensive positions because of being outflanked....he might be able to see your moves a mile away, but you can see his too.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: paullus99

Think of it this way - he's not in any position to attack, so he either has to stand or retreat....eventually, he's going to run out of room - which still works in your favor.

Think of the Atlanta Campaign as your guide - you can still win without having to fight a major battle...if you can force Obvert to vacate strong defensive positions because of being outflanked....he might be able to see your moves a mile away, but you can see his too.

You are absolutely right. I´m going to walk around instead. I have a couple of Chinese corps coming in to secure the crossing and our LOC. Its all clear terrain so the Motorized army make good speed! [:)]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]18th-19th March 1945[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

Looks like Erik has decided to fight back...

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Destination Okinawa
------------------------
Look at the attached screen in the bottom. Looks like Erik brought everything he still have left. He is definitively going to try for a bombardment. He is going to send in a million small TFs to make me expand ammo and OPS and perhaps clear some mines for the big boys to come in and blast the airfield. Going to be a big firework that will hit...

...nothing! [:D]

My initial reaction was to try and exploit this too obvious attempt. But after giving it some though I´m going to continue on the same path that have served me so well for over a year now. Patience. I don´t need to fight this. Not yet. My engineers will repair the field in a day and all it will cost is some disruption and burned supply. With 240.000 supply at Naha its not going to run out.

So I simply pulled everything out (including the DDs) leaving only subs and PTs. The Fleet withdrew 3 hexes south and will sit there watching the fireworks. Anything within range of the Fleet tomorrow will be sunk. Wonder how much fuel this will burn for him.

Hope I figured this out right or I will look silly tomorrow... [:D]

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China
------------------------
Bombers go in over Nanning with better results. Still not stellar though. Around 1000 Japanese casualties are recorded during the day. Some leaky CAP showed up that got dealt with by the sweeps.

I´ll cancel the crossing tomorrow. Want to make Erik sweat for another day. It will also make my CMA leave the hex so I don´t have to set all the units individually (yes I´m lazy! [:D])

------------------------
DEI
------------------------
We land at Oosthaven tomorrow with a full ID. This is part of the small OZ corps tasked with reserve at Java. Might as well make them do something useful...Besides I could always use the fuel at Palembang!

Not much happening besides the fact that I forgot to stand down the bombers in India. But I did remember to stand down the sweeps...[8|] So that could end in a nasty way...

Here is the screen of the entire Japanese navy withing strike distance of Naha. [:)]

[paullus99]

Now, if you can just keep him coming & hit him where he ain't.......

[JocMeister]

Good thing I was right so now I don´t have to look stupid. [:D] But it was a really halfhearted attempt from Erik. Far from the all in move I would have expected. He didn´t even manage to close the AF...

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]21th March 1945[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

The fireworks turned out to be...a disappointment for the onlookers!

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Destination Okinawa
------------------------
As suspected a bunch of smaller TFs went in ahead and cleared out the PTs. I lost 6 PTs in total. After that came the big guns.

Night Naval bombardment of Naha at 95,66 - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

Allied aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft losses
PBY-5A Catalina: 2 damaged
PBY-5A Catalina: 1 destroyed on ground

14 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Japanese Ships
BB Kirishima
CA Mikuma
CA Nachi
CA Maya
DD Yamakaze
DD Yudachi
DD Shigure
DD Shimakaze

Allied ground losses:
295 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 22 destroyed, 62 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 4 disabled
Guns lost 37 (11 destroyed, 26 disabled)
Vehicles lost 35 (18 destroyed, 17 disabled)

Manpower hits 1
Repair Shipyard hits 1
Fires 131
Airbase hits 20
Airbase supply hits 3
Runway hits 41
Port hits 10
Port supply hits 1

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Night Naval bombardment of Naha at 95,66 - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

Allied aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft losses
PBY-5A Catalina: 1 damaged

12 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Japanese Ships
CL Sakawa
CL Yahagi
CL Agano, Shell hits 1
CL Oyodo

Allied ground losses:
8 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Airbase hits 2
Runway hits 2
Port hits 2

And that's it! [&:] The airfield isn´t even closed. And to add insult to injury...

ASW attack near Kume-jima at 93,65

Japanese Ships
DD Michishio, Torpedo hits 1, heavy damage
CL Sakawa
CL Yahagi
CL Agano
CL Oyodo
DD Arare
DD Maikaze

Allied Ships
SS Lamprey

She immediately sinks after that so I traded 1 Cat, 1 sub and 6 PTs for a DD. Good trade. [:)] Obviously had I known this wouldn´t have been an all in effort I would have opposed this. Very risky by Erik to do this halfhearted effort. Even keeping the Fletchers in place could have spelled disaster for him.

The plan to get Naha into a self sufficient base continues. First TFs have just left Manila. I´ll repeat the system I used to move stuff to Luzon. So it will be LST/LCIs/Barges to shuttle partial units to Naha. The TFs will take cover under the CVs and then go in to unload one TF at a time. I cannot prevent losses if Erik decides to strike but it will be very low risk for me. And hopefully heavy losses for him! [:)]

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China
------------------------
The CMA shifts hex moving at a steady 30 per turn. The main army cancels the crossing and follow after. I have 1500 Chinese AV coming in from Thailand to secure our rear as we advance south. The bombers get some long overdue rest. I think I may have found another crack in Eriks MLR. Awaiting more detailed recon.

Concentrating on the troops allowed Liuchow air field to open again. Erik moved in 120 fighters. I think I´m going to try an attack here. I want to see how much LCRAP I can get over a target 7 hexes away. The big 42 plane Corsair units will sweep while the long range P51s will provide LRCAP. I´m not expecting anything above 1:1 here. Its just to test LRCAP. This knowledge will be important further on.

In the mountains we continue to pound the 3 IDs guarding the road to Tsuyung. This has been going on for a few days now and will continue to do so for at least 10 more days.

Morning Air attack on 37th Division, at 67,44 , near Paoshan

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Allied aircraft
Liberator B.VI x 28
Liberator GR.VI x 16
B-17E Fortress x 8
B-24D Liberator x 7
B-24D1 Liberator x 12
B-24J Liberator x 72

No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
330 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 12 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 24 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled

Another 200 casualties are added in fragmented strikes. I don´t know why Erik perseveres. I guess he hope the rivercrossing will wreck my troops. But if I can get enough disablement and disruption on his troops I´m confident even 3 half strength IDs can make it. Once I´m across its just a matter of time.


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Sumatra
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Always nice to add a new location! [:)] Troops have landed but something held up the TF and they didn´t start unloading until the afternoon. Still got 438 AV in shore though. No opposition.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Sumatra/Malaya[/font]
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Here is a screen of the situation. I´ll continue to advance as long as I can. I can´t complain when I´m given all this completely free. [:)]

Havn´t gotten the turn back from Erik yet so most likely I won´t have time to run it tonight.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]22nd March 1945[/font]
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Just the usual business.

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Destination Okinawa
------------------------
As I rebase some of the subs to Naha for defensive purposes Erik spots them. Four subs are forced to RTB as they are hit by ASW air. Added bonus is that this scares away the KB a bit to the North.

Second attack at Nago goes well.

Ground combat at Nago (95,65)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 101428 troops, 1905 guns, 1626 vehicles, Assault Value = 3989

Defending force 16194 troops, 401 guns, 126 vehicles, Assault Value = 135

Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 4

Allied adjusted assault: 1705

Japanese adjusted defense: 745

Allied assault odds: 2 to 1 (fort level 4)

Allied Assault reduces fortifications to 4

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), preparation(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
3156 casualties reported
Squads: 117 destroyed, 12 disabled
Non Combat: 29 destroyed, 241 disabled
Engineers: 10 destroyed, 15 disabled
Guns lost 129 (36 destroyed, 93 disabled)
Vehicles lost 14 (1 destroyed, 13 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
1283 casualties reported
Squads: 3 destroyed, 104 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 17 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 17 disabled
Guns lost 42 (2 destroyed, 40 disabled)

I think Erik have been a little too bold with a TF. Its possible this might be the TF that bombarded Naha. Then again its seems lately my fly boys see CAs and BBs in every little DD TF... But I´m going to give this one a go. 9 Ships listed for 2 turns now which rules out a small ASW TF. There is something there at least. The Fleet will shift NE towards the HI and have a go. It should be fairly safe as Erik still has 1500 fighters and 500 bombers on Formosa.

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China
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The sweep/LRCAP encounters about 80 Franks. Notice how few P51s appear despite 225(!) being on LRCAP.

Morning Air attack on Liuchow , at 74,55

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 78 NM, estimated altitude 34,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 29 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-84r Frank x 80

Allied aircraft
P-51D Mustang x 17
F4U-1D Corsair x 36

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-84r Frank: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-51D Mustang: 3 destroyed
F4U-1D Corsair: 3 destroyed

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Morning Air attack on Liuchow , at 74,55

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 78 NM, estimated altitude 38,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 29 minutes [X(]

Japanese aircraft
Ki-84r Frank x 70

Allied aircraft
P-51D Mustang x 15
F4U-1D Corsair x 47

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-84r Frank: 3 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1D Corsair: 2 destroyed

So using even massed LRCAP with long range fighters is not feasible. I had hoped the range of the P51s would have helped. This also shows the futility of trying to wage a air war against the Japanese. The day ended with a Japanese win of 26 vs 24. I need 4:1 or even 5:1 to just break even in terms of loss/produced.

Until I can (if ever) start to strike at his factories we will continue to avoid combat.

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Sumatra
------------------------
Oosthaven is secured without combat. Now we start to shuttle the troops over from Java and then head for Palembang.

[JocMeister]

Heading out of town for a night so you will have to wait for the results on the CV raid...I understand you are all dying to know the result ([;)]). But you will have to wait...

Be back with an update tomorrow! In my absence here is Friday nights listening:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jRXNtYbbW3w

Here is tonights drink!
http://www.ratebeer.com/beer/oppigards- ... pa/191963/

[JocMeister]

You guys suck at bumping me when I´m away! [:D]

Decided to stay for another night so I won´t be back until tomorrow.

[witpqs]

Bump

[:'(]

[JeffroK]

You wou[8D]ld think that he would take his computer so he could run his turns and keep us entertained!!!

[jonreb31]

ORIGINAL: JeffK

You wou[8D]ld think that he would take his computer so he could run his turns and keep us entertained!!!

Seriously insensitive of him. Doesn't he understand our WiTP obsession disorder? We have feelings, Joc.

[JocMeister]

Haha, I´m sure you do! [:D]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]23rd March 1945[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

Frustration! [:@]

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Destination Okinawa
------------------------
Erik of course moved the BBs the same turn...so my strikes went after a DD TF costing me...a lot.

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Morning Air attack on TF, near Kagoshima at 102,60

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 63 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 27 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Sam x 28
Ki-84r Frank x 56

Allied aircraft
Hellcat F.II x 24
F6F-3 Hellcat x 59
F6F-5 Hellcat x 208
SB2C-4 Helldiver x 43

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-84r Frank: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Hellcat F.II: 1 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 4 destroyed
F6F-5 Hellcat: 12 destroyed
SB2C-4 Helldiver: 11 destroyed, 6 damaged
SB2C-4 Helldiver: 1 destroyed by flak

Japanese Ships
DD Kiri, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Sugi
DD Kaede, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
DD Kaya

Quite often the automated routines of this game makes me furious. Couple that with some poor design decisions and you end up with a lot of frustration....[:@]

The engine decides sending 40 DBs are quite enough (which it obviously isn´t). And we all know that 300 Hellcats should get absolutely MURDERED by 50 Franks because they are on escort. [8|]

A bad day.

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China
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Here we see a good example of why trying to do anything in the air is a complete waste of time.

Morning Air attack on Liuchow , at 74,55

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 44 NM, estimated altitude 36,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 16 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Sam x 9
Ki-83 x 18
Ki-84r Frank x 34

Allied aircraft
F4U-1A Corsair x 29

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1A Corsair: 7 destroyed [X(]

Too far away for LRCAP to support. This was a 42 plane Squadron but the sweep fragmented... [8|] Luckily the bombers for some reason didn´t take off or it would have been slaughter. Days like this enhances my worry that there will never be a daylight bombing campaign over the HI.

In all honestly I think it might be easier and more doable to try and take the factories by land. That means landing on the HI...

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]24th-25th March 1945[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

Interesting situation develops in China.

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Destination Okinawa
------------------------
Erik seems to have shifted focus to western parts of the HI. Lots of ships under the trademark heavy CAP. I have an idea to deal with this but I will need some time to get stuff into place.

In the meantime we continue to siege Nago. Another deliberate attack on the 26th.

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China
------------------------
Here is were things are turning really interesting. Because I didn´t pay attention I missed that the guard unit I left at Chungking was due to withdraw. So suddenly the place is completely unguarded. I noticed this as I was losing VPs due to insufficient garrison. Stupid mistake by me. I turned some units back from the main stack but Erik seems to have timed this perfectly and I now have 2 IDs between the stack and a completely empty Chungking...

or that is what he thinks... [:D]

When I realized Chunking was left completely empty I immediately sent the 44th Parachute ID to Hanoi together with 600 transports. Just in case... [:)]

It comes down to timing. I hope I got it right. So on the 25th I started transporting them in. This means Eriks recon bombing missed me on the 25th. He will now see them on the 26th but it will be too late to stop the crossing. Shocking into a 91 EXP Parachute division behind level 6 forts in a Light urban terrain will destroy him. And the door will close behind him before he can retreat back. BUT it comes down to if he really crosses next turn. If not he can cancel the crossing and get out of dodge in time.

We will know tomorrow.

And just to hedge the bet a bit....

Afternoon Air attack on 35th Division, at 76,46 , near Chungking

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid spotted at 37 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-24J Liberator x 8
B-24J Liberator x 58
B-25D1 Mitchell x 18
B-25G Mitchell x 12
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 15
PBJ-1D Mitchell x 13

No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
424 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 32 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 49 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled

I set them to 50% so not to trash them so bad Erik cancelled the crossing all together. Tomorrow the whole force will fly.

I´m not really sure why Erik wastes 2 IDs on this to begin with. Even if he would have grabbed Chungking and all of the central bases whats the point? He gets a few VPs that I can easily take back later if I need to. I don´t think Erik really sees the big picture at this point. Central China is completely irrelevant now. We are going EAST. Not West... Its the Chinese forces that have a strategic value at this point. Their bases are useless. And the Chinese forces are heading SOUTH. Towards supply. Can´t really complain though... [:)]

[DOCUP]

That's kinda slick Joc.

[CaptBeefheart]

That looks like a great beer. Tell Oppigards to export it to Korea. Also, have you had the Norwegian Nogne? The founder of that brewery used to live in Japan and that was his first export market. I've had Nogne over there a couple of times and it is tasty. I've heard rumors it'll be available here in Korea shortly as well.

I've only played against Ironman AI, which essentially means not a lot of offensive air raids, so I feel your pain. It's all about doing proper base defense to shoot down tens of thousands of Japanese aircraft over time, with some uber-aces racking up over 100 kills. Then, we you absolutely need to take out an airbase, you need to use every 4E in the area and also do shore bombardment on the base if possible. Shore bombardment is your friend. You might even consider a couple of Fletcher bombardments on Taihoku and other bases within range.

Cheers,
CC

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: DOCUP

That's kinda slick Joc.

It would have been if I had managed the timing. But I didn´t. [:(] Erik didn´t cross during the turn and now he cancelled. Bah. [:(]

ORIGINAL: Commander Cody

That looks like a great beer. Tell Oppigards to export it to Korea. Also, have you had the Norwegian Nogne? The founder of that brewery used to live in Japan and that was his first export market. I've had Nogne over there a couple of times and it is tasty. I've heard rumors it'll be available here in Korea shortly as well.

I've only played against Ironman AI, which essentially means not a lot of offensive air raids, so I feel your pain. It's all about doing proper base defense to shoot down tens of thousands of Japanese aircraft over time, with some uber-aces racking up over 100 kills. Then, we you absolutely need to take out an airbase, you need to use every 4E in the area and also do shore bombardment on the base if possible. Shore bombardment is your friend. You might even consider a couple of Fletcher bombardments on Taihoku and other bases within range.

Cheers,
CC

I´ll try to convince them there is a huge fan base in South Korea... [;)]

The air war makes absolutely no sense at all in the later stages of the war. I´m working on a separate post on that and why I think its broken and what could possible be done to fix it.

But basically it comes down to the defender being able to mass 1000+ fighters on a single base while the only tool available to the attacker is sweep + LRCAP. The problem with that is the distance of LRCAP. Just 3-4 hexes away only about 30-50% show up but high FAT drops that number to almost nothing after just the first or second sweep.

This makes defense way too powerful. You simply have no tools available to combat this. If the escort mission wasn´t so ridiculously penalized the attacker would have at least one tool to strike back at this CAP hives and would force the defender to spread out on multiple bases instead.

But I doubt the post will lead to anything. The community (well, one or two very loud individuals really [8|]) is completely unwilling to try and evolve the game and rather have a static and stagnant game because it suits their needs.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]26th March 1945[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

Things are slowly getting into place. A bit worried I still havn´t managed to snap out of the low interest rut I suffered after the Okinawa invasion. I guess I just have to keep my head down and plow on.

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Destination Okinawa
------------------------
The attack on Nago goes well. So happy Erik didn´t have 2-4 IDs on this place or it would have been a nightmare!

Ground combat at Nago (95,65)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 101727 troops, 1905 guns, 1627 vehicles, Assault Value = 4004

Defending force 14340 troops, 372 guns, 125 vehicles, Assault Value = 121

Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 3 [&o][&o][&o]

Allied adjusted assault: 1517

Japanese adjusted defense: 502

Allied assault odds: 3 to 1 (fort level 3)

Allied Assault reduces fortifications to 3

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
2860 casualties reported
Squads: 28 destroyed, 31 disabled
Non Combat: 181 destroyed, 72 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 20 disabled
Guns lost 131 (33 destroyed, 98 disabled)
Vehicles lost 21 (2 destroyed, 19 disabled)
Units destroyed 2

Allied ground losses:
941 casualties reported
Squads: 3 destroyed, 112 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 6 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 11 disabled
Guns lost 26 (2 destroyed, 24 disabled)

First of the "shuttle TFs" will go into Naha next turn. I hope I can trigger a response from Erik. KB is sitting 1 hex outside Shanghai. Guess he doesn´t dare enter the harbor again! [:D]

I´m making preparations to clear the East China and Yellow Sea of Japanese naval forces and chase them east towards the HI. This will be a low risk allied operation with a high risk for the Japanese.

I´m in a great position where I have an abundance of low value platforms like DDs/CLs and subs that can easily take out Japanese high value target.

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China
------------------------
My elegant trap fails because I overestimated the speed in which Eriks IDs would cross. He sees the danger and cancel the crossing. Too bad. He is still in danger though. I´m going to try and cut him off. So either he withdraws east or he will be cut off in 10-12 days. All in all can´t really complain about having 2 Jap IDs up here.

I started the crossing towards Tsuyung. I´m causing around 600-700 casualties per day. With no HQs or support here I doubt he can recover any disruption and it should be through the roof by now.

------------------------
Logistics
------------------------
The news supply chain is now up an running. I´ve decided to skip using the Marinas as a "halfway point". So stuff go directly from PH to Luzon. This means they will have to refuel on the return leg at Midway. So I have a couple of high END xAKs sitting at Midway refueling the TFs returning. Works well.

Supply is once again back up at 3 million on Luzon and fuel is nearing a million. In a month it will be at least double that.