Monday Night Montage (ex-Moose Crossings) - (J) vs. Bullwinkle/Obvert (A)

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: witpqs

So, questions about Ramree Island. I'm noticing that Bullwinkle is beginning to reconnoiter the place, DL 7/10 on this previous turn (October 3). I don't have anything there, and haven't. I'm probably late to this party. I think he might try to come in from this way? Can somebody point me to threads or referenced posts on the utility of Ramree? Is the crux of the matter that once you have a base built, supplies flow better along that crappy sheep trail from Prome to Akyab?

Yes, that's basically it. It's no free ride, and you really need to build up the port (plus support helps), but Ramree Island is very important. If you're looking for a reference, see my AAR. [:'(]

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=2966329

Even though it's not on the sheep trail? Seems pretty weird.

It's only one hex off the (minor) road system. I'm sure that supply losses in transit matter, but it's the best way in until Rangoon is captured.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: witpqs



Yes, that's basically it. It's no free ride, and you really need to build up the port (plus support helps), but Ramree Island is very important. If you're looking for a reference, see my AAR. [:'(]

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=2966329

Even though it's not on the sheep trail? Seems pretty weird.

It's only one hex off the (minor) road system. I'm sure that supply losses in transit matter, but it's the best way in until Rangoon is captured.

It makes sense in a counter-intuitive sort of way. It's only one hex through the jungle from the road, and presumably it will accumulate supply from Rangoon (or from Akyab), and then units on the front either towards Akyab or Rangoon will get supply from Ramree rather than the extra couple of hexes of poor LOC...

Sounds like I need to send a couple of divisions there. He just landed 2 US IDs plus a regiment of Marines and another USA regiment on Amchitka, so I don't think I have to worry much about US IDs showing up here... Still, Chittagong doesn't have that much and Cox's/Akyab are empty even by comparison to Chittagong. So I have little to no idea where the Indian and Commonwealth units are at. It's entirely possible that he could land several divisions at Ramree out of the blue, with USN and RN CVs as covering forces. I might sink a CV or two (and some amphibs) in such an op, but it would probably put a permanent halt on any offensive operations in Burma.

[witpqs]

In my experience, very little supply will flow from Akyab (or farther points) to Ramree Island. Really, its usefulness is as a seaport which them gets supply overland into the middle of Burma.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

In my experience, very little supply will flow from Akyab (or farther points) to Ramree Island. Really, its usefulness is as a seaport which them gets supply overland into the middle of Burma.

Hrm. I'll march some guys there for starters, and then see if supply will flow up from Rangoon. If not, I've got plenty of ships in the Singapore area that can load up in amphib mode to unload at Ramree.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: witpqs

In my experience, very little supply will flow from Akyab (or farther points) to Ramree Island. Really, its usefulness is as a seaport which them gets supply overland into the middle of Burma.

Hrm. I'll march some guys there for starters, and then see if supply will flow up from Rangoon. If not, I've got plenty of ships in the Singapore area that can load up in amphib mode to unload at Ramree.

My remarks are aimed at using it as a supply corridor (typically for the Allies) when you do not hold Rangoon. [:)]

[Lokasenna]

Alright dear readers, many updates. Just sent October 23 to Bullwinkle, so over 50 turns since my last real update.

First, my successes - Australia. For several reasons, I have decided not to try to take Perth. Here are my available troops:

18th Division, 100% combat TOE, 85 Exp
2nd Division, 100% TOE, 86 Exp
5th Division, 85% TOE, 92 Exp
33rd Division, 95% TOE, 76 Exp - near Esperance currently, not available for weeks for Perth
4th Division, 100% TOE, 74 Exp
7th Ind Tank Brigade, 70% TOE, 57 Exp
8th Tank Rgt, 70% TOE, 55 Exp

Supporting units:
16th Army
17th Army
101 guns between 5 ART units
48 Combat Engineers between 4 independent units

Basically, I don't think I have enough. If he has level 4-5 forts at Perth, as he should by now, I don't think I can break through what looks like 2-3 division equivalents. I would need more IDs, and I'm not bringing more in. I just don't want to commit the time here.

So now I'm trying to bomb Perth while I cut him off and then get my men out. There are almost daily, if mostly inconsequential, bombings by Wirraways, Liberators, and B-25s on my troops outside Esperance and/or Albany, but they haven't accomplished much. On October 20-22, Beaufighters damaged 2 xAK at Geraldton and 2 DD escorting Mutsu/Nagato for a bombardment run on Perth, but are no longer present.

Many days of night bombing, for no success. I've managed to get fires up to ~2300 on a few days, but they haven't burned anything up. It wasn't until I got a KB strike in that I got a whopping 20 Strat VPs for damaging 10 points of LI. I've finally established superiority over the skies, and expect that once I take Esperance he will no longer be able to fly planes in/out, so I don't expect any more aerial resistance. Then I can bomb Perth in peace while I transport out the 4th Division, both tank units, the 5th Division, and all of the supporting units. Southwest Area Fleet will remain at Geraldton until all of the divisions are evacuated.

I have taken Carnarvon with the rebuilt 8th Tank, and "ghosted" the 3rd Motor Brigade after it retook Cunderdin sometime in late September. Many LCU VPs have been had.



1: 7th Indpt Tank Bde to beat up that unit on the road outside Perth, take Busselton for funsies, and then move north back to Geraldton for evac.

2: 33rd Division to go take Esperance. 3 minor units sighted there. I suspect a base force in addition to the initial fortress, plus maybe a battalion of something. Easily handled.

3: nothing to see here...where's the "3"?

4: Perth itself. 26-29 units routinely sighted, with between 77-96k troops and around 700-800 guns/vehicles each. That's a big bite, and I'm going to pass. As already stated, I don't think I have enough troops currently present, and I am content to take my VP gains here and leave. Even though, as I will detail in my next post, it hasn't been to the benefit of my VP ratio the absolute gains in permanent VPs from ships/planes/men have been large.

5: Cordon of 3 IDs. He could come out of Perth and defeat any one ID, but it would leave the base open to capture by the other 2. I intend to leave these in place until the units on the road, as well as 7th Tank, have been extracted. 5th Division is the furthest north, and 33rd Division will take its place once Esperance has been captured (2-3 more turns plus movement time). And once 33rd Division arrives, I'll begin pulling out the other 2 divisions.

6: Ghosted units in these areas... 3rd Motor Brigade, which I expect is making for Esperance or maybe even Kalgoorlie (which would really limit my time here), was last spotted moving SE from the hex outside of Cunderdin. The 57th RAA CD unit was last bombed in one of the hexes underneath the Geraldton mouseover, last seen moving SE towards Kalgoorlie (but no expected AV in this unit).


Also of note - KB is missing Zuikaku, which is repairing at Singapore from the collision with Tone. She is also finally receiving her radar. She and Zuiho will both be ready in about a month or 45 days, which is when Ryuho arrives. At that time, I will reform MKB around Hiyo/Junyo/Ryuho/CVEs and bring KB back to a full 5 CVs. I am liking this "mega KB", though. Last turn's strike on Perth (which netted me a whole 20 points) had 140 Kates and 135 Vals.

The BBs are on their way back to Soerabaja after having held position 300 miles due west of Perth for several weeks, hoping to catch any inbound shipping from Africa. They bombarded Perth for mediocre results and Mutsu has 22 System damage from shell hits.

One new sub, I-32, is heading to the SW of Albany to look for more southerly shipping.

AOs are to the NW of the map shown, with 77k Fuel, which will soon replenish KB. The xAP/xAK convoy outside Geraldton will pick up the first 4-5 Engineer/Artillery units in 2 days.

[Lokasenna]

I meant to ask in that post whether fort levels affected results against city infrastructure. My bombing attacks on Perth have been exceptionally poor, with mid-60s Exp pilots with average 70 GrdB skill. I'm bombing from 11-12k and some raids have gotten through CAP. One Betty raid, the rebuilding Kanoya KuK-1, got completely demolished one time, though...

The biggest strategic battle of this campaign, aside from the LCU VPs obtained, was the destruction of a large Allied surface task force consisting of 1 BB, 4 CAs, 4 CLs, 1 CLAA, and 2 DDs. I was trying for a clash of the titans between BB North Carolina and BB Yamato, or else between the Allies and Nagato/Mutsu, but did not correctly anticipate his movement (he went far to the north, eventually dooming his ships).

Victory Points
August 30
Allied LCU VPs earned: 13426
Japan Air Loss: 2430
Allied Air Loss: 2747
Japan VPs: 32181
Allied VPs: 11987
Ratio: 2.685:1 (down from 2.742:1 on 08/28/42)

October 23
Allied LCU VPs earned: 15452 (+2026)
Japan Air Loss: 2976 (+546)
Allied Air Loss: 3375 (+628)
Japan VPs: 36293 (+4112)
Allied VPs: 13621 (+1634)
Ratio: 2.664:1

Not all of this action has been in SW Australia, but that's the bulk of it.

Ship Losses near Perth since 08/28/1942
Japan
CA Mikuma [:(] (52)
CA Kumano [:(] (46)
8 DD (56)
2 APD (12)
1 E (4)
2 DMS (6)
7 AK (160)
26 xAK (260)
1 SSX (3)

Total VP: 599

Allies (estimated)
BB North Carolina (hit by 12 bombs and then 6 torpedoes) (214)
CA Houston (35)
CA Louisville (35)
CA Minneapolis (40)
CA Devonshire (39)
CL Phoenix (finished by BB Hyuga at long range) (40)
CL Nashville (40)
CL Perth (?)
CL Birmingham (36)
CLAA San Juan (24)
DD Sterett (?)
DD Wilson (6)
3+ more DD (?)
5-6 SS (44-55)
3 xAKs
1 PC
4+ AM
1-4 AVD/AVP
1-2 ACM
Lots of PTs (28+)

Total VPs: ~700
12+ total CAs sunk now
3 hated Brooklyn CLs sunk

North Carolina brings the BB kill total to 5, probably 6, plus BC Repulse. Only modern BB other than Prince of Wales to be sunk, though. West Virginia allegedly sank off the West Coast from damage sustained on December 7.

Important to note that I only have a slight edge in ship VPs, however a large portion of my losses were to merchant shipping while almost all of his losses were top of the line combat ships, particularly North Carolina and several of the most modern CAs and CLs. It stings to lose 2 of my favorite ships in Mikuma and Kumano, but after sinking the Allied deathstar TF I feel rather good about the affair. Strategically, combined with the apparent loss 3 pre-war USN BBs and Force Z, I think this is going to hurt him in terms of bombarding. Or at least, I thought so until 7-8 BBs showed up in the Aleutians for 3-4 bombardments per week not all that long ago...

My escort losses were slight. In Scen 2 with the extra DDs, this is sustainable, despite losing a handful of modern DDs.


On land, the vast bulk of my Allied LCU VPs are Commonwealth/Australian units. Bullwinkle has commented that this has crippled his ability to resist, especially with the initial US Army units being restricted and needing several thousand PPs to get to combat. I have destroyed many thousands of VPs in Chinese units, but I still think that I have ~6000 to 9000 VPs from UK/Australian/Indian units. About half of them destroyed in Australia or outside of Palembang, plus the other stuff in the SRA and a small amount in the South Pacific at Noumea/Suva.

[Lokasenna]

The Aleutians

Complete Allied domination up here. It's been a long time coming, and I almost got forts on Shemya to level 5 before the bombings started.

Overall, I don't have anywhere near enough supply up here. And nowhere near enough in the Kuriles. I need to bring in more men, more supply, and build more forts. I also need to start keeping a viable response force either in CentPac or in the HI, in case he comes to the Kuriles in early-mid 1943, which is definitely on the table. I may have the upper hand everywhere else on the map, but this theater scares me.

I'm looking at giving up another couple hundred LCU VPs when Attu falls. I want him to come for it sooner rather than later, when I still have a prayer of having some supply on the island. It's not looking good. Almost 2 dozen Nicks were lost there a couple of weeks ago when the airfield was shut down for good.

On the seas, it's been all Japanese losses up here. I've thrown away some minor ships trying to get a couple thousand supply in to Amchitka...then Shemya... I'm not going to bother at Attu, despite the presence of an independent Infantry Group. They're cheap enough to rebuild and aren't an elite unit in any case. Also no hope of lifting them out, and if I did I'd just be leaving the more valuable RF Gun Bn units to die on their own in any case. May as well leave the Infantry.

Shipping Losses since 08/01/1942, when USAAF dominance began
Japan:
6 DD
1 DMS
2 E
16 PB
7 xAKL
1 ACM
1 SS

Allies:
None? Maybe an xAK or 2 to submarines.


Many of my PB losses were small 330-capacity boats worth 3 VPs each, though a few were the good 1000-capacity 14-knot boats. Most of the DD losses were obsolete boats that wouldn't even see Type 95 Mod-2 DCs until late in the war. Still, it all adds up to at least 100 VPs for no gain.

If my campaign against Chungking stalls permanently (will know more by the end of 1943), I think I will buy out at least 1 CEA Division for each Kurile (7 to 9 of them). They're all crack units at this point and should do well in this area. For reference, there are currently 22 Divisions at Chungking with various regiments and 3 tank divisions with more regiments. If I can't take the city, I will leave enough in the area to keep him bottled up (probably around 40% of my current forces there) and the rest will go to Burma until it's time to send them back to Manchuria.

[Lokasenna]

Strat Map



White: Current defensive perimeter. Minimal or no base expansion aside from forts. Little or no commitment of air units, other than at Noumea and some search units at the furthest-flung bases (Suva, Baker, Luganville).

Yellow: Secondary defensive lines. I will put up more of a fight here (Christmas IO, Ndeni, Tabiteuea) than at the current front line. Judicious base expansion here.

Cyan: Tertiary defensive lines. The pink area around Kwajalein, etc., is something I would like to defend however if he gets the Gilberts I don't think this is an area I want to do major battle. Moderate base building so far at Rabaul, PNG area, Kusaie, and Ponape. Forts construction in the Marshalls. Forts only at Port Moresby.

Purple: Dot bases I still need to take...working on that now.


I am building more aggressively in the Marianas, Luzon, and the SRA (Java, Sumatra, Borneo). The Celebes and Moluccas are being somewhat neglected for now.

I am concerned that, with Bullwinkle's strategic position, he is going to go straight for the jugular with simultaneous operations against Sumatra and the Kuriles/Hokkaido. If he were to succeed with both, I think he would pull out a solid victory in 1945. Otherwise, unless one of us makes some major and unrecoverable errors in late 1943 or 1944, I think we're looking at a draw in 1946.

On that note, I know Bullwinkle has been demoralized of late - particularly since the naval losses off Perth/Geraldton. It's true that his LCU VP situation is poor, but I don't think his naval situation is all that bad. He's lost a few more CAs than were lost historically, and he's lost North Carolina, but otherwise is in a comparable historical position in terms of assets remaining. He has lost 2 USN CVs and 1 British CV that was withdrawing anyway, so he still has 4 USN CVs plus 4 28-capacity CVEs now. I've lost Kaga and 2 CVLs/2 CVEs, so I only have a slight edge in CV power at the moment. His CVs have been missing for many months. I'm not sure where to expect them, or when. I've begun shoring up the western side of Sumatra in case he comes here out of the blue, either trying to bomb Oil or with a major landing once he gets some Essexes.

Another factor has been the game setup in general. I feel a bit guilty for the settings we are playing with - mainly the lack of realistic R&D, but also Scen 2 in general. We were both unaware of the full effect of the R&D setting at the start, and while I haven't used it to full advantage I have fast-tracked the A6M5c and begun steady work on the Ki-43 IV and Ki-100-I. I will have the A6M5c in early 1943, and the Oscar-IV/Ki-100 sometime in mid-late 1943, I think. I know his aircraft pools are suffering somewhat. If we are able to "patch in" a database change for multiple torpedo upgrades in 1943, I think I will suggest that we also look at aircraft replacement rates, maybe.

I think SoPac would look rather different if this were a Scen 1 game, without the extra Fuel stocks, as I would have been forced to go for Palembang earlier. This would have made it a big stretch to grab Noumea and Suva, the acquisition of which has effectively shut down any 1942 moves on his part in this area, and completely isolated all but the southern tip of Australia. The extra LCUs have definitely made a difference, probably facilitating the move on Darwin. I realize these are both areas that Japan can get in Scen 1, but Scen 2 allowed me to do so without compromising elsewhere. The higher HI and Supply cost of Scen 2 doesn't bother me right now. The HI is manageable, and if the extra supply cost of the units is somewhere around that of the entire emergency reinforcement package for invading Japan (~100K for 3 years), then the extra Supply cost is also minor. I haven't added up the supply cost of the extra Scen 2 units, but might someday. Obviously it's more than the depot divisions since they are all seeing regular action.

[JocMeister]

I´ve been talking a lot with Bullwinkle so I can´t really comment much. But I have been trying to cheer him up. I don´t think his position is that bad at all. The CW/OZ units lost will absolutely hurt him no doubt. But he will have time to rebuild one and possible two of the good IDs in time to see some action.

I went through my game vs Erik only using the 3 arriving OZ IDs. I was always short on PPs (even up to the end) and never had any to spare to buy out the some of the restricted OZ IDs.

I think 2,7:1 is a very good allied VP ratio for 10/42. If he can keep it around that its actually a very good score. As you say he has a pretty intact navy and if the USMC and USA IDs havn´t taken lots of damage he still have a very large hammer to swing in 43...and VPs can swing around VERY fast. I found an old screenshot from my game vs Erik. During just 6 months in 44 I earned 27.200 VPs for only 8400 Japanese. So it can swing very fast. And that is not after a catastrophic naval loss or something. Its mostly just bases, a couple of ships and an army.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

I´ve been talking a lot with Bullwinkle so I can´t really comment much. But I have been trying to cheer him up. I don´t think his position is that bad at all. The CW/OZ units lost will absolutely hurt him no doubt. But he will have time to rebuild one and possible two of the good IDs in time to see some action.

I went through my game vs Erik only using the 3 arriving OZ IDs. I was always short on PPs (even up to the end) and never had any to spare to buy out the some of the restricted OZ IDs.

I think 2,7:1 is a very good allied VP ratio for 10/42. If he can keep it around that its actually a very good score. As you say he has a pretty intact navy and if the USMC and USA IDs havn´t taken lots of damage he still have a very large hammer to swing in 43...and VPs can swing around VERY fast. I found an old screenshot from my game vs Erik. During just 6 months in 44 I earned 27.200 VPs for only 8400 Japanese. So it can swing very fast. And that is not after a catastrophic naval loss or something. Its mostly just bases, a couple of ships and an army.

Hence my concern with the NE and SW corners of my little empire in 1943!

27000 vs. 9000 VPs would put us at a 1.2:1 in my favor. I'm focusing on the bases worth VPs in my defense plans, and looking to make him pay disproportionately for low-VP bases if possible, in order to maintain a good VP ratio.

[JocMeister]

Out of curiosity, do you think AV is still a possibility for you?

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

I´ve been talking a lot with Bullwinkle so I can´t really comment much. But I have been trying to cheer him up. I don´t think his position is that bad at all. The CW/OZ units lost will absolutely hurt him no doubt. But he will have time to rebuild one and possible two of the good IDs in time to see some action.

I went through my game vs Erik only using the 3 arriving OZ IDs. I was always short on PPs (even up to the end) and never had any to spare to buy out the some of the restricted OZ IDs.

I think 2,7:1 is a very good allied VP ratio for 10/42. If he can keep it around that its actually a very good score. As you say he has a pretty intact navy and if the USMC and USA IDs havn´t taken lots of damage he still have a very large hammer to swing in 43...and VPs can swing around VERY fast. I found an old screenshot from my game vs Erik. During just 6 months in 44 I earned 27.200 VPs for only 8400 Japanese. So it can swing very fast. And that is not after a catastrophic naval loss or something. Its mostly just bases, a couple of ships and an army.

Yes, they can swing quickly, especially once strat bombing shifts into high gear late in game. It was about even in late 44, then shifted to almost 2:1 IIRC by the end, in about 6 months. Would have kept going up too.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Out of curiosity, do you think AV is still a possibility for you?

I don't think so. Even if I netted 2.5-3k VPs for the Chinese at Chungking and captured the place, and built it to AF 9, it would be only 2.92:1, or ~42.4k : 14.5k. That's if I took a level 9 Chungking tomorrow. The denominator of his VPs is just too high, and there are no big VP multiplier bases left to take, other than Chungking. Even Perth wouldn't get me there, as it wouldn't drop his VP level much. I'd be shocked if the VPs weren't closer to 1.9:1 or 2.3:1 by the end of 1943.

I didn't think I had much chance of AV from the start of the game, so I haven't been playing for it. Just expanding my perimeter as far as I dare in order to destroy units, keep him off balance, and delay the counter offensive.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: obvert
Yes, they can swing quickly, especially once strat bombing shifts into high gear late in game. It was about even in late 44, then shifted to almost 2:1 IIRC by the end, in about 6 months. Would have kept going up too.

Yeah, but the big shifts happened long before I started strat bombing. Mostly in 44. I think I ended up with a total VP of around 115k. About 15k of that was from strat bombing. Most remarkable shift was in spring of 44. I think that was most of it was base VPs.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: obvert
Yes, they can swing quickly, especially once strat bombing shifts into high gear late in game. It was about even in late 44, then shifted to almost 2:1 IIRC by the end, in about 6 months. Would have kept going up too.

Yeah, but the big shifts happened long before I started strat bombing. Mostly in 44. I think I ended up with a total VP of around 115k. About 15k of that was from strat bombing. Most remarkable shift was in spring of 44. I think that was most of it was base VPs.

Agree. The Marianas and the Philippines are worth tons of VPs. Just tons. As I recall, you had Thailand and Indochina as well, which is also a big VP boon. Rangoon has a large multiplier and can be built up...

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: obvert
Yes, they can swing quickly, especially once strat bombing shifts into high gear late in game. It was about even in late 44, then shifted to almost 2:1 IIRC by the end, in about 6 months. Would have kept going up too.

Yeah, but the big shifts happened long before I started strat bombing. Mostly in 44. I think I ended up with a total VP of around 115k. About 15k of that was from strat bombing. Most remarkable shift was in spring of 44. I think that was most of it was base VPs.

Agree. The Marianas and the Philippines are worth tons of VPs. Just tons. As I recall, you had Thailand and Indochina as well, which is also a big VP boon. Rangoon has a large multiplier and can be built up...

The gains in 44 were big and that was the time that paved the way for the later surge, but the actual accumulation of the most VPs happened in the last 6-7 months. I guess I see the strat bombing as a major added factor that really pushed the VPs up for the Allies in addition to reducing combat effectiveness, destroying supply generating industry and oil production from around April 44 in China and the DEI.

Here is a look at the periods of major Allied success from Spring 44 - June 45. Strat bombing of the HI began in November 44.

April 10, 1944 - 42,955 - 29,743

October 27, 1944 - 52,663 - 52,280
-------------------------------------
9,708 - 22, 537 = 2.32

October 27, 1944 - 52,663 - 52,280

June 17, 1945 - 65,508 - 113,937
--------------------------------------
12,845 - 61,657 = 4.80

The last seven months were decidedly the most successful of the war for the Allies in VP differential.

[JocMeister]

Ah, but wouldn´t the bulk of that be base VPs? Its most of Indochina, Luzon, Okinawa, Thailand and China.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Ah, but wouldn´t the bulk of that be base VPs? Its most of Indochina, Luzon, Okinawa, Thailand and China.

Just responding to this. It happened largely after strat bombing and strat bombing was a huge factor in the collapse of the Japanese economy. Right? [:)]

I'm actually trying to show that you did a great job of bombing the Japanese economy to oblivion! [:D]

Yeah, but the big shifts happened long before I started strat bombing. Mostly in 44.

[Lokasenna]

A few updates. Current game date: December 29, 1942

Southwest Australia

A summary of the foray into SW Australia, even though the saga is not yet complete.

As I alluded to in somebody else's thread, I let Bullwinkle have Kalgoorlie back too soon. Although I'm not sure that staying there with the 33rd Division would have made much difference, it's possible. This led to a relatively rapid withdrawal and fall away from Perth for me. Geraldton has fallen, and we had a lot of naval battles.

November 26 - December 3: I lose 1 DD, 1 E, 11 xAKs, and 2 xAPs to port strikes at Geraldton. Poor play on my part, and not enough CAP due to stretching too far.

December 12: I lost 4 AKs (others damaged) and both of my LSDs in a surprise attack from CA Quincy and 2 DDs a few weeks ago. I then sunk the Quincy, but it was not enough revenge. I've had to console myself with lots of aircraft victories with KB's CAP. Akagi's DB unit, previously gutted not once but twice, is slowly recovering Exp as well.

Most of my LCUs have made it out, however the 18th and 33rd Divisions are taking a beating. The 18th Division may march far enough up the coast that I can save them. I'm not sure of the 33rd Division's fate yet. I would like to get them to a coastal hex so that I can evacuate. I've also lost bits and pieces of SW Area Fleet and a couple of AF Bns.

Some pieces of the 18th and 33rd were airlifted out of Geraldton before it fell, so I won't have to buy the IDs back either way.

Attached is a spreadsheet of some quick and dirty VP calculations for the operation. Change the file extension back to .xlsx to open it. In my calculations, I approximated air losses to be 85% of the global total for the 4-month period. I only counted ships that are in Tracker and sunk in that area, so my count of his losses may be low. I do not think it is high. Some of the subs may not actually be sunk. I deducted estimates of LCU losses in China and Burma for both of us, however there may have been more (especially for him) that I did not count.

Summary of losses for Japan
Ships - 938
Air - 1131
LCU - 545
Total - 2614

Summary of losses for the Allies
Ships - 826?
Air - 1295
LCU - 2009? seems high
Industry - 248
Total - 4378

So I got somewhere around 4000 permanent VPs for this, at the cost of 2600 to myself. This is an effective VPs (to stave off AV in 1945) of 5400 (4000*2 - 2600).

Strategically, one of his divisions got set back several months and the USMC has 2 divisions and other units present here. I'll have to fortify Java in case he decides he's going to go for the jugular in 1943 (doubtful given his aircraft losses thus far, particularly to SBDs, but still possible). I have the divisions from this foray for that, plus decent forts so far. But I can't hold the island with what I've got in the theater now (~4 IDs plus support). I need Chungking to fall and then bring 2 more divisions down here, I think.

Strat bombing didn't work very well.

Net supply expenditure (some was captured and some was lost as bases fell back to the Allies) for this entire operation was somewhere around 50,000.

Fuel expenditure and losses in sunken ships unknown.