Avian aggression leads to murder most fowl - Sqz(A) vs. Chickenboy(J)

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

You get any of those pilots back?

No idea. I'm not using tracker this game, but will check my pools to see if I have a bunch of experienced pilots. I'd actually forgotten to check earlier, thanks for the reminder.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock

VP's currently sit at 16000 (J) vs. 5600 (A). India could become the vital theatre that determines a Japanese AV.

That is a concern. What's the game date?

It certainly is. Game date is April 12/42. Japan holds Pago Pago, Fiji and New Caledonia in the Pacific and Ceylon in the IO. No landings in the Aleutians or Australia as yet. Bataan still has to fall in the Philippines so that will be another large VP haul. China is static at the moment, but once supply is out large numbers of Chinese LCU VP's will start to add up. There has been little air combat to date, but that is ramping up now that India is the playing field. I think I can start to make VP gains in the air and Andre does have to achieve a 4:1 ratio to come out ahead, so there is an opportunity to eat into his VP lead.

I've not been very active naval wise yet. Most of the Allied naval forces are conducting their 4/42 upgrades. Once these are complete I will be in a position to look for opportunities to strike at Japanese naval assets. I'm more of a reactive player, but won't move until I'm ready. The Allied side is fairly new to me and now that I have a better understanding of their early capabilities (or lack thereof), I'd definitely do things differently. It's been a learning curve for me too, but I'm confident I'll come up with something to avoid AV. If not, lesson learned.

Hey Joseph. I too was fretting a lot at this point about AV. Of course GJ had already invaded India and taken half of it!! [:)]

The best thing you can do is to build everything! You'll start catching up quickly once the air war heats up and your engineers start flowing in. If it's close near the end those South Pacific big point islands will be vulnerable. The navy can wait until then when you'l need it!

[SqzMyLemon]

Be careful what you ask for.

Recon of the Japanese positions along the coast of India shows there are now 17 units in theatre. As much as I wanted Andre to have to reinforce India, that reality is frightening considering what little I currently have available to counter. SigInt indicates another Japanese division, the 48th, is being committed to India as well as an AF construction unit. Even more units are indicated deploying to Rangoon. It appears Andre's operation in India may be bigger than I first imagined and it looks like I haven't seen anything yet.

I am glad I did not commit heavily to Ceylon as the rest of India would be completely defenseless in light of the Japanese commitment to this theatre.

On a positive note, I had set up a number of CAP missions in China which were successful today. Unescorted Japanese bombers were interdicted over Wenchow and near Kungchang. Numerous Sonia and Sally bombers were shot down for no Allied losses. On the day, including other Ops losses, the Japanese lose 20 aircraft against none for the Allies.

The actual VP numbers right now stand at 16137 (J) vs. 5715 (A).

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: obvert

The best thing you can do is to build everything! You'll start catching up quickly once the air war heats up and your engineers start flowing in. If it's close near the end those South Pacific big point islands will be vulnerable. The navy can wait until then when you'l need it!

Everything that can be expanded is currently doing so. I'll begin to probe in the Pacific to gage the Japanese reaction and see if I can interdict as few Japanese merchant TF's. My submarines have been withdrawn for their 4/42 upgrades and upon completion they'll resume patrols. The Allied navy needs to locate KB so I can assess my options.

[SqzMyLemon]

Dark days for the Allies.

Changsha falls 15 April 42. AAR follows:

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Ground combat at Changsha (82,52)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 114626 troops, 1081 guns, 237 vehicles, Assault Value = 3700

Defending force 27645 troops, 221 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 501

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 1

Japanese adjusted assault: 4078

Allied adjusted defense: 459

Japanese assault odds: 8 to 1 (fort level 1)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Changsha !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1607 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 127 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 19 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 16 disabled
Vehicles lost 18 (2 destroyed, 16 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
11670 casualties reported
Squads: 609 destroyed, 48 disabled
Non Combat: 513 destroyed, 105 disabled
Engineers: 65 destroyed, 5 disabled
Guns lost 95 (66 destroyed, 29 disabled)
Units retreated 8

Defeated Allied Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
4th Ind.Mixed Regiment
13th Tank Regiment
58th Division
40th Division
13th Division
59th Division
17th Division
60th Division
63rd Division
51st Engineer Regiment
39th Division
68th Division
3rd Division
11th RGC Temp. Division
1st Mortar Battalion
51st Ind.Mtn.Gun Battalion
15th Ind.Medium Field Artillery Regiment
2nd Hvy.Artillery Regiment
4th Mortar Battalion
11th Army
14th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
2nd Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
5th RF Gun Battalion

Defending units:
26th Chinese Corps
72nd Chinese Corps
58th Chinese Corps
10th Chinese Corps
78th Chinese Corps
30th Group Army
29th Group Army
17th Chinese Base Force

Chittagong falls 16 APril 42. AAR follows:

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Ground combat at Chittagong (55,41)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 14621 troops, 146 guns, 59 vehicles, Assault Value = 527

Defending force 4258 troops, 43 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 70

Japanese adjusted assault: 377

Allied adjusted defense: 55

Japanese assault odds: 6 to 1 (fort level 3)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Chittagong !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: forts(+), morale(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
304 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 18 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled

Allied ground losses:
4199 casualties reported
Squads: 75 destroyed, 9 disabled
Non Combat: 292 destroyed, 7 disabled
Engineers: 29 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 31 (31 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units retreated 1
Units destroyed 1

Defeated Allied Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
Imperial Guards Division
Yokosuka 2nd SNLF
1st RF Gun Battalion

Defending units:
6/18th Royal Garwal Battalion
Chittagong Fortress

Colombo falls 17 April 42. AAR follows:

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Ground combat at Colombo (29,48)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 44540 troops, 424 guns, 555 vehicles, Assault Value = 1477

Defending force 13582 troops, 157 guns, 102 vehicles, Assault Value = 109

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 2

Japanese adjusted assault: 698

Allied adjusted defense: 117

Japanese assault odds: 5 to 1 (fort level 2)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Colombo !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: leaders(-), fatigue(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
749 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 17 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 9 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 52 disabled
Vehicles lost 56 (13 destroyed, 43 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
10574 casualties reported
Squads: 270 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 855 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 89 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 160 (160 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 140 (140 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 9

Assaulting units:
23rd Ind. Engineer Regiment
4th Ind. Engineer Regiment
1st Tank Regiment
4th Tank Regiment
Sasebo 3rd SNLF
15th Ind. Engineer Regiment
41st Infantry Regiment
38th Division
7th Tank Regiment
5th Division
20th Ind. Engineer Regiment
14th Guards Regiment
1st Hvy.Artillery Regiment
2nd Mortar Battalion
9th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
2nd Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
54th Const Co

Defending units:
Colombo Fortress
100th Indian Brigade
98th Indian Brigade
22nd Light AA Regiment
Ceylon Base Force
Ceylon Command
222 Group RAF
2nd Ceylon H AA Regiment
Eastern Fleet /2

Allied squad and device losses are staggering, not to mention the base VP's. The VP ratio is now 17801 vs. 5721 for the bad guys. Is it really this easy for Japan? Andre is quite confident that AV will be achievable, especially considering Bataan hasn't fallen yet and the veritable buffet of VP's that is China. If I had reinforced Ceylon or committed the British Fleet I can only imagine the VP ratio would be even higher in Japan's favour.

Andre is away for a week, so I have plenty of time to think on how to proceed before I submit the next turn. I'm obviously going to have to risk a major operation against a major VP target to avoid losing a 1942 AV. The only options I can see is to liberate Ceylon or a South Pacific campaign against Fiji and New Caledonia. I don't see enough VP's elsewhere.

Andre hints at harvesting even more VP's from India yet, providing I co-operate [:D]. I tend to take the jest seriously. He's looking to bag large numbers of Commonwealth VP's and I think he'll commit whatever it takes to achieve that goal. I'm sure KB is waiting in ambush for a desperate Allied move in the Pacific. Right now my options appear limited and it's going to get a lot worse before there's even a chance to turn this around.

Dark days indeed...

[witpqs]

1) Don't panic.

2) Always bring a towel.

Of course, if you forgot your towel, panic! [:D]

You could remember the advice of Josey Wales: it's time to get mad-dog mean!

You are still in the phase where there is a very high level of difficulty in winning a stand up fight. But auto victory is not triggered until January 1, 1943 no matter where the VP ratio stands. Bide your time, strike a little here and there as you can. Make him pay where you can on defense, save what you can where you can't make him pay. Most of all, sit down with the map and your best understanding of what is where, and start making long term plans. Having multiple plans is good, because enemy dispositions or other circumstances might cause you to have to switch plans and it's better to have a actual alternate plan ready to go (as opposed to only improvising, although improvising is always part of execution anyway).

[Richard III]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

Dark days for the Allies.

Changsha falls 15 April 42. AAR follows:

Is it really this easy for Japan? Andre is quite confident that AV will be achievable, Dark days indeed...

Perhaps in the early game for one of the legendary JFB`s.

Still thinking back on the Rader vs newbie Greyjoy game, Nic pulled it out in the end. ( and Rader knew the Japanese Game as well as anybody.)

He still has to ship the oil back to the HI.
JFB anti- sub still sinks.
I doubt even Andre can stop massed low level B-29 night attacks.
Even he can`t make KB appear in two places at once.

But I`m still glad it`s you playing him and not me..[;)].

[Lecivius]

B 29's won't come into play in time to stave off an AV.

Hang in there, and build like mad. If he's pushing this hard here, he ain't elsewhere [;)] Does he have all of Asia garrisoned, or would some low value unit be able to sneak behind the lines? The Aleutians? Etc. Etc. Etc.

[JocMeister]

Heh, told you the allied side wasn´t such a walk in the park...[;)]

But yeah, China is a walk in the park for the Chinese. This throws the whole AV balance out of whack and instead of becoming very hard it becomes quite doable. In a sense it might actually out of your hands but there are some things that helps.

Don´t want to give too much away here so I´ll drop you a PM later tonight or tomorrow evening.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Heh, told you the allied side wasn´t such a walk in the park...[;)]

But yeah, China is a walk in the park for the Chinese. This throws the whole AV balance out of whack and instead of becoming very hard it becomes quite doable. In a sense it might actually out of your hands but there are some things that helps.

Don´t want to give too much away here so I´ll drop you a PM later tonight or tomorrow evening.

I really don't think this is the case. Note that in my game, VPs never hit 3:1 during 1942, despite my loss of China. True, I didn't lose all of the troops, but the major difference is in my VP total - not the IJ VP total. You need to fight back. Even if you trade at 1.5 or 2 to 1 in his favor, it's a short term win for you. You just need to survive to the point where you're able to invade somewhere and bag lots of VPs in one go.

Don't be afraid to lose some assets, just make sure he loses some also. You get more - by and large, with the exception of airframes, he doesn't get any more. Go ahead and trade 50 planes to sink a CA, for example - that's near a 1:1 trade on VPs, and he only gets about 12 of those.

You need more VPs. If he's pushing into India, he can't defend Noumea. If he's defending Noumea, he can't defend Ceylon. Find those big vulnerable VP banks and make plans to take them in the autumn when you've got some more toys.

Beat that drum!

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Don't be afraid to lose some assets, just make sure he loses some also. You get more - by and large, with the exception of airframes, he doesn't get any more. Go ahead and trade 50 planes to sink a CA, for example - that's near a 1:1 trade on VPs, and he only gets about 12 of those.

You need more VPs. If he's pushing into India, he can't defend Noumea. If he's defending Noumea, he can't defend Ceylon. Find those big vulnerable VP banks and make plans to take them in the autumn when you've got some more toys.

Beat that drum!

He gets 18 CA's actually [;)].

I know what you are saying, but I think some credit has to be given to Andre here. He knows what he is doing and has used other PBEM's to get to this point. He knows he can achieve AV without sticking his neck way out. He relies on destroying units and plays accordingly. I fear that being as aggressive as some Allied players suggest only plays into his hand at this time. He wanted a reinforced Ceylon, he wants a large Commonwealth commitment to Burma, he wants a knee jerk invasion in the South Pacific. These are the things he's planned for. The only 'safe' otions for me are low value VP moves which he knows won't affect his bid for AV, yet puts my naval assets at extreme risk for little gain. This is what I believe I'm up against.

I'm not afraid to risk assets, but I'm also not willing to simply throw them away either. At this stage that would be exactly what I would be doing. It certainly doesn't help that I lost a CV to a single torpedo hit which compromised my planned interdiction of the Japanese move against Ceylon.

I never said this would be easy and I certainly know that a Scenario 2 gives Japan way more options than Scenario 1, which is all I've ever played as Japan. I'm not saying Scenario 2 is unfair, but it certainly allows for exactly this type of situation.

It just seems way too easy to be in this position considering the lack of combat. Andre has yet to finish harvesting the starting Allied OOB that is stuck in the DEI and Philippines, not to mention thousands of VP's in China. It's only April 1942 and I hardly see how I could have effectively changed the current situation. This is why is seems far too easy for Japan to be in this position in my opinion. Could I have loaded up Ceylon? Sure, and now all those divisions would be destroyed and India completely defenceless. Could I have prevented the early move on New Caledonia and Fiji? Absolutely not. I'm dealt with outclassed air and naval forces and combat LCU's that have such low experience they simply can't hold against a patient, methodical Japanese player that simply commits more to the point of attack than my forces can deal with.

However, I play best when I'm up against the wall. I do have options. It's a matter of avoiding catastrophe and nibbling away where I can until I can make a move. However, the moves that need to be made I'm 100% positive Andre is counting on me making them as well. That's the problem.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
I really don't think this is the case. Note that in my game, VPs never hit 3:1 during 1942, despite my loss of China. True, I didn't lose all of the troops, but the major difference is in my VP total - not the IJ VP total. You need to fight back. Even if you trade at 1.5 or 2 to 1 in his favor, it's a short term win for you. You just need to survive to the point where you're able to invade somewhere and bag lots of VPs in one go.

Yeah, but your VP is unusually high I think. At least so compared to my games. In my game vs Joseph where I had Noumea I ended up just over 8200 VPs in December 42. Granted I didn´t invest very heavily in base building. I did do that against Tom though and without Noumea I might have just passed 8000 VPs. So around 9k with Noumea and most allied bases maxed out. You had what? 12,5k VPs at the end of 42? Thats a very big number and I doubt many allied players reach that kind of number in 42.

Feel free to prove me wrong though! [:)]

[Capt. Harlock]

These are the things he's planned for. The only 'safe' options for me are low value VP moves which he knows won't affect his bid for AV, yet puts my naval assets at extreme risk for little gain. This is what I believe I'm up against.

It looks as if he has cast up the numbers well. But there is a possibility that you can turn a low-VP base into one that he cannot afford to ignore, for instance, capturing an island in the Kuriles within B-17 range of Hokkaido.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock

It looks as if he has cast up the numbers well. But there is a possibility that you can turn a low-VP base into one that he cannot afford to ignore, for instance, capturing an island in the Kuriles within B-17 range of Hokkaido.

All options are being considered. [:D]

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
I really don't think this is the case. Note that in my game, VPs never hit 3:1 during 1942, despite my loss of China. True, I didn't lose all of the troops, but the major difference is in my VP total - not the IJ VP total. You need to fight back. Even if you trade at 1.5 or 2 to 1 in his favor, it's a short term win for you. You just need to survive to the point where you're able to invade somewhere and bag lots of VPs in one go.

Yeah, but your VP is unusually high I think. At least so compared to my games. In my game vs Joseph where I had Noumea I ended up just over 8200 VPs in December 42. Granted I didn´t invest very heavily in base building. I did do that against Tom though and without Noumea I might have just passed 8000 VPs. So around 9k with Noumea and most allied bases maxed out. You had what? 12,5k VPs at the end of 42? Thats a very big number and I doubt many allied players reach that kind of number in 42.

Feel free to prove me wrong though! [:)]

My numbers are similar between games! Granted, I sunk Yamashiro in one and Hyuga in the other, but that's only 250 VPs. Against Arto, I'm at 12.7K on 12/19/1942. 50K VPs is a pretty tall order for anybody to get in 1943.

Bullwinkle's VPs aren't too dissimilar either - he has >12K in December 1942. He sunk Kaga and MKB, both combinations of good play on his part and poor anticipation or planning on mine. Maybe Andre is planning for you to hit those places. That doesn't mean that you can't do so.

Also, I didn't mean to stick your neck out (like a chicken [;)]) right now - I mean in the fall. Make your plans for where you'll need to go. And stick to those plans. It may require flawless settings for your CV air groups (for example), but if you bring enough to the table you should be able to trade in your favor anywhere on the map. You just need to pick the spot. I still think Noumea is a prime location for at least one part of a two-part thrust - it doesn't have a lot of supporting base potential nearby (unlike Ceylon), and is worth a boatload of VPs to you.

Keep in mind that shattered units are cheaper to buy out. If you get some gutted Chinese corps and you have a PPs to cross HR, then you can get them on the cheap. They aren't great, but better to buy them out and schlep to India than have them killed, respawned, and killed again - right?

RE: New Caledonia, Fiji - you can't prevent that early on. You just don't have the units to send there. It takes at least 2-3 months to be able to send anything to reinforce.

RE: Ceylon - I disagree, unless (posting without checking back some pages in your AAR here) he went for Ceylon within the first 30-60 days. Anytime after that and it should be a Stalingrad for Japan.

Your VP total is about in line with everybody's at this point in the timeline. 6K VPs seems to be a standard baseline.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
I really don't think this is the case. Note that in my game, VPs never hit 3:1 during 1942, despite my loss of China. True, I didn't lose all of the troops, but the major difference is in my VP total - not the IJ VP total. You need to fight back. Even if you trade at 1.5 or 2 to 1 in his favor, it's a short term win for you. You just need to survive to the point where you're able to invade somewhere and bag lots of VPs in one go.

Yeah, but your VP is unusually high I think. At least so compared to my games. In my game vs Joseph where I had Noumea I ended up just over 8200 VPs in December 42. Granted I didn´t invest very heavily in base building. I did do that against Tom though and without Noumea I might have just passed 8000 VPs. So around 9k with Noumea and most allied bases maxed out. You had what? 12,5k VPs at the end of 42? Thats a very big number and I doubt many allied players reach that kind of number in 42.

Feel free to prove me wrong though! [:)]

OK! [:)]

I'm playing Lokasenna in a Scenario 2 game. No HRs of course. He has non-historic R&D. I believe we have weather OFF, but I don't recall. He is as good a JFB as CB, trust me. I'm average at best in my second PBEM.

Just loaded the December 10, 1942 turn in Tracker. I have 14, 897 VPs. I've lost 400 more airplanes than he has. He owns Suva, Noumea, and all of China but Chungking. I suck at ground combat; I've made mistake after mistake, including several just this week. What's the difference? Ships. Just ships. You can't make it up with base building alone.

On my side of the FOW I've sunk 366 Japanese ships. He's sunk 438 of mine, mostly in the first two months.

It's a NAVAL game. You can't avoid auto-vic on land in 1942. A good JFB will eat you up. To Squeeze I would ask, if you won't use the RN to save Ceylon what are you saving it for? There are good bases all the way north to Karachi. He unloads fast, yeah, but not forever. Two more weeks actually. You don't need carriers to hurt the invasion zones. Trade 10-pt DDs for 10-Pt xAKs and you win the exchange.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Also, I didn't mean to stick your neck out (like a chicken [;)]) right now - I mean in the fall.

I know what you meant. It's all good. [8D]

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
To Squeeze I would ask, if you won't use the RN to save Ceylon what are you saving it for? There are good bases all the way north to Karachi. He unloads fast, yeah, but not forever. Two more weeks actually. You don't need carriers to hurt the invasion zones. Trade 10-pt DDs for 10-Pt xAKs and you win the exchange.

Anywhere, but Ceylon. [:D]

Andre has made a few comments now about the whereabouts of the RN. He's disappointed he's not had a crack at.

I totally agree, it's a naval game, but right now Andre holds too much of an advantage in my opinion, and in this regard he plays like me. When I play as Japan, I use overwhelming force in moving forward. Ask Jocke or Smeulders. I'd welcome any Allied move to counter a naval operation of mine in the first 6 months of the war. I actually appreciate you commenting in the AAR. I still have 8 months for the navy to turn things around.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
To Squeeze I would ask, if you won't use the RN to save Ceylon what are you saving it for? There are good bases all the way north to Karachi. He unloads fast, yeah, but not forever. Two more weeks actually. You don't need carriers to hurt the invasion zones. Trade 10-pt DDs for 10-Pt xAKs and you win the exchange.

Anywhere, but Ceylon. [:D]

Andre has made a few comments now about the whereabouts of the RN. He's disappointed he's not had a crack at.

I totally agree, it's a naval game, but right now Andre holds too much of an advantage in my opinion, and in this regard he plays like me. When I play as Japan, I use overwhelming force in moving forward. Ask Jocke or Smeulders. I'd welcome any Allied move to counter a naval operation of mine in the first 6 months of the war. I actually appreciate you commenting in the AAR. I still have 8 months for the navy to turn things around.

Andre talks too much. He counts on his opponents to listen.[;)]

Against Loka the LCU VPs are about 8:1 against me. You can sink ships that can't shoot back. They count too. Things get a little easier after the first round of upgrades. But it's an often-ignored source of Allied VPs. In 1942 it's the smallest tech and experience gap in the OOB versus the Japanese.

[SqzMyLemon]

A thank you to all who are posting. I know the pace of the game is slow, but I do enjoy any discussions that arise in the AAR that facilitate the lack of updates.