Maybe my points of reference are off. There are lots of little bits that I haven't posted here (the SIGINT on units in the Marianas, for example). But my other game is in December 1944 and I'm at 1.5:1, with the IJ "permanent" VPs lower than in this game - no China capture in that game, so a few thousand LCU VPs there. In that game, everything SW of Luzon is in Allied hands. Even with Manila, Hong Kong, and Shanghai, I'm going to have to bomb the home islands to get over the top.
Strat bombing in this particular game is so very far off, and the level of resistance in the air is enormous. At some point I'm going to be seeing 81-plane IJNAF night fighter groups (put A6M5d-s on Akagi, resize...maybe split into 27's if he feels like it) which will interfere with my B-29s.
Once I get caught up to the current date (still at least another page of posts to go, starting in a few minutes), I'll look at some bigger picture things like aircraft pools, my available shipping/LCUs, maybe some of my plans, and some VP calculus.
You may not need to work at predictions. Knowing that once B-29s come online you'll have a whole lot of strat bombing options that are already in range. You may have some now even with the 4Es available.
Strat bombing is the key, but also, as mentioned above, letting him bludgeon against CAP with masses of his oversized groups will earn a good number of points late. There are a LOT of planes in 45 for Japan, and judging by plane loss numbers over 20k so far, he's likely to want to use them. So just make those favorable to you. Even if you lose ships, as you know well, the VP count is what matters.
Japanese army troop losses will also start to pile up faster and faster. Territorial gains are worth more to you and he loses more as you get targets closer to the HI. It may be a bloodbath, but it'll most likely gain you a lot of points to move forward aggressively. [;)]
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill
