Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA)

[HunterICX]

Great AAR and interesting developments so far,

Have this game for over a year now I still consider myself a novice reading up these AAR's with their tips and strategies and even just pondering on what to do and take in consideration is very helful.

Keep up the good work!

[Gunnulf]

Turn 14 - 2 Oct '43

Pretty quiet to be honest. Rain in the Reich so we rest and refit and let Flak do its job for a change. He's still on 20VP for bombing but with the losses from fighting he only posts +7 overall.

Sardinia falls, but still no Italian surrender yet, though I still have the bulk of my forces away from his front line modifiying the roll, he will close up soon and i'm sure it will trigger soon. So until then we continue to put them to work, stalling the advance marginally as attacks on Taranto and Messina are both held, and probably more importantly helping dig the Gothic line. Meanwhile 10th Army occupies the first of the optimistically named 'Winter lines'. A mix of Fallshirmjagers and PzGrenadiers with armour reserves. We configured the army for hitting the anticipated Rome beachhead over holding the rough and mountains, but they should be up to the job. The biggest problem we foresee is his much larger than historic army means likely he will hit above Rome sooner or later. He still has 2 x TF and all he needs is to get ashore and a flood of divisions will no doubt follow, without really having to deplete the forces he has south of the Winter line forcing me to commit to keep this strong enough. I doubt I wil be able to marshall enough troops to be able to contain a beachead like Anzio was and no sure there is really a clever way to solve this without the EF box to push and pull about.

I do still worry about the free flexibility the Allies have here to bulk up, as I haven't seen any evidence he is suffering supply problems, despite being very cavalier about allowing most of his supply routes to be over contested seas. Does it even matter much? I try to secure these relatively but is it that important and do you have to bother? He has lost 30,000 vehicles, 50 Troop ships and 444 cargo ships (I guess thats relatively abstracted in terms of volume as thats 618,000 tons of shipping if its a typical Liberty ship, they made 2700 of them too so a pretty good job if I've sunk 20% of them in 3 months...! (i'm pretty sure its abstracted though...)). Question is, at what point do ship losses hurt? I'm quietly confident he is no-where close.

Thats pretty much it I think, more interesting stuff once he fans out from the boot I suspect.

[Gunnulf]

A screenshot of D+7 for you, and the Italian skirmishing. A fair few hold across the board, but I think they will evaporate next turn, or latest thereafter. Pretty good to squeeze an extra month out of them, and Sicily still defiant and tying down at least a whole British Corps. Plus a sneaky peak at the corner of the real front line (seeing as its nearly christmas).

[Gunnulf]

Seasons greetings! I suspect there will be a christmas ceasefire or my long-haired CO will court marshall me. However in between cooking turkey and sundries (domestic god, general extraordinaire, is there no end to my talents? Yes, apparently I am a terrible air marshall...) then I will quickly stitch today a couple of screenshots from yesterday.

Turn 15 - 9 Oct '43

The Italian finally throw in the towel. They had a good innings and I ran their air force ragged, though actually still a reasonable number of fighters and bombers left some with decent experience by the end. Sad to see them go and we wish them well in their new alliance. Apart from all the ones we interned obviously. Which is all but a couple of Brigades on Corscica, one already dispatched, one still outstanding. If we is going to hit Corsica then no doubt this should come immediately otherwise it will be winter soon. If not then that points towards a Roman riviera landing in preparation I would think...
Otherwise he has 1 weeks drive to the Gustav line at least, then shake out to attack and likely be mud so I can't see him making progress here anytime soon. I maybe should have made a play to extend the line to Naples but not going to risk it on the fly. Everything is dug in to level 3 in good terrain and where it should be, with tactical and strategic reserves. A couple more divisions wouldn't go amiss for sure but not much I can do about that. Bring it on!
The one exception for the keen-eyed is the division on the north coast, in open terrain and barely started digging in. Its 1 SS PzGn, due to withdraw in 2 turns and its a shame not to use it a little first. Its bait for him to attack and cause a few casualties hopefully. Or not, we'll see.

[Gunnulf]

Over the Reich

After a couple of weeks rest and re-organisation we activate Luftwaffe Reich again by day. Focused effort to catch 8th air force on the way to Berlin and back. The result? I'm not sure he will really notice we are back. A few of the intercept results screenshotted together. Even when outnumbered he bests us, only right close to Berlin when the P38s drop off to we start to get a few hits. Too little too late obviously and a drop in the ocean. Of course the difference between this and the real campaign is that as we know he relies heavily on P38s brought up from the Med theatre to cover the reich bombing by day.
Thats all folks.

[Gunnulf]

Turn 16 - 16 October '43

Simple to summarise, this turn QBall pretty much bombed everywhere in North Germany. Quite impressive really with 150 city bombing raids in total on a total of 47 different hexes, a new high. I've not been though all of them but they are 50 plane raids. Losses inflicted were maybe the best in a while with 98 level bombers, and 45 P38s, versus 67 Bf109s and 18 Me410s. Some quick maths puts that at at a 1.28% loss rate combined 8th AF & Bomber command. Hardly going to set the high command scurrying around for a new tactic due to overwhelming casualties. That its 47 different hexes for me makes it difficult for me to imagine this can be considered each wave as part of complex raid. This is not even a shotgun now, its a blunderbus!
I can't blame QBall, I've made plenty of mistakes which haven't helped my case and they are snowballing, but clearly the bombing experts have hit on the right formula to work the game mechanics to the best advantage to minimise intercepts, maximise escort coverage, increase interceptor fatigue and reap huge damage. Maybe if 8th Air force had adopted the strategy of fanning out everywhere in individual wing sized attacks on multiple different places in a free-for-all then they would have come back with 1-2% losses rather than 5-7% they sustained? Needless to say all the inteceptor gruppes in range (given the area, thats almost all) have fatigue between 57 & 84 as the bounce out and back each time, eventually no doubt asleep at the controls, underperforming in battles, increasing fuel use and operational losses. This has to be a big part of the difference between this game where I am getting raped, and the other where so far in '43 my air force has well over double the day fighter pilots remaining in Luftwaffe Reich?

[Gunnulf]

Christmas sale! Invade 2 Islands and get your 3rd for free!

1 TF lands in NE Corsica, 45 US Inf Div coming off the ramps with what looks like a corps behind them. It would be tempting to pull another hard fight as clearly the mountain/rough terrain lends itself to a fight, especially with the weather about to turn. But I don't think I'd have such an easy job slipping away this time, I don't have Italians to soak up a few casualties, and anyway my 2 Mtn regiments were busy in the south where I expected the invasion as was also moping up the last Italian turncoat so no chance to contain the beachhead. Otherwise we had 4 security regiments in 'support' but they are not going to cut the mustard in a stand-up fight. This time he (accidentally on purpose?) left the door open on the west and we take the easy option to sail/fly out. Only 1 Sec Regt couldnt make it this turn but likely will next. Its not really worth the fight at this stage as he already has plenty of airfields in Sardinia that wil be useful to him,, and even if I delay him for a couple of months by the time he actually needs these they will be his, albeit not so expanded maybe. Overall trying to deny him the extra here have diminishing returns at this stage I think and he knows it so he has gambled on 1 TF and 1 corps ashore.
That he again leaves 1 TF in reserve does raise interesting questions. He likes to keep you guessing and on your toes and its a very good strategy, and one less beachhead is clearly not hurting his logistics.

[Gunnulf]

The Winter Line

For somebody who was in a helluva hurry to get to Rome before QBall doesn't seem to have such an urgency closing with the defense line he no doubt knows is ahead. Historical hindsight is a wonderful thing! Looks like 1 SS PzGn will be shipping out to Russia before this kicks off. I'm sure they are overjoyed. I think in future I'll stick to the EF box on as its just too frustrating having units disapear. You have to send Mech units to Russia with it on or you will lose ground, but at least you have a little control over who and when. Never mind, its really the least of our problems. This line will hold for a while, and we have reserves off the line in case he decides to use than illusive remaining TF to land behind us. Its a bit weird as the Axis knowing exactly how many TFs are lurking out there does influence your decision making unnaturally, but on balance its a good system obviously and really doesn't help us knowing there are six anymore than so many other elements of any game that gets rehearsed with replays.
Anyway, in this case he seems to be paying a particular attention to the north coast. As the allies you might be tempted to see that north shore behind the Gustav line as worth a gamble even with 1 TF to save blood and treasure, particularly when its tempting to focus on Rome and the south coast as the threat. Good cover from the Foggia bases too. I'll be keeping at eye on this. But what is (relatively) clear is that unless he has been taking a long time to prep a single TF with multiple division then landings in the Rome area can be expected more likely when the Bari landings have recycled. Too much chance of getting hammered on 1 hex in such a critical area and ending up back in the sea. However, the count-down no doubt has already started...

[Gunnulf]

Turn 17 - 23 Oct '43

I should have built the line around Naples and denied him the city points. His progress is much slower than I expected, perhaps for supply reasons.
QBall is doing a bit of recce now on the north and the south coasts of Italy behind the lines. It might just be psychological at this stage as I estimate that the earliest he can get a 2nd TF with 50prep points in a level 6 port is 13th Nov, and a 3rd the week after. Thats when we go from Amber to Red, but still a risk of a chance attack before then.
But the weather is starting to turn. The bombers over Northern Europe are grounded in heavy rain, and while the south is still clear that rain will extend as far as central Italy next week it seems.

The only question I am left mulling over this turn is whether to attack the only 2 Allied units we can see. The US Armoured division in open ground seems like a likely candidate despite the rivers... Once the air phase is done I'll take a closer look.

[loki100]

I'd guess that Naples as a freebie is a good reward for his southern campaign. It also solves your supply problems once it is running.

So I'd make it part of the defensive line or as an isolated stay behind defence.

As to the vp problem - here loss due to attrition - I've no solution but think even more complex rules would create even more problems.

Big issue here is I regard taking Naples as the natural end to the first part of the Italian campaign, so not surprised he is sitting back.

[Gunnulf]

Yep, it's certainly a mistake. I was fairly convinced right up to D-day that despite the delays he would come at Anzio as his main effort. I had the Gustav where it was as the maximum I felt I could hold while concurrently covering this threat. Then when he did come at Bari I thought I had just 2, maybe 3 weeks until he would be through Naples in more force than I could handle at short notice. On balance it's still better than I envisaged a couple of months ago for sure.

We roll the Panzers forward against 1 US Arm Div and discover actually Guards Armoured Divison on the west flank as well as 3 CAN inf div on the other (2 more UK divisions from 21 Army Group), we had a recce air directive but nothing flew, not checked why yet. Anyway, we commit Herr's LXXVI Pz Corps for the first time (16 Pz, 26 Pz, 15 PzGn & regiments from 1 & 4 Fallshirm). Results are pretty good with half his divisions AFVs out of action and 2.5K casualties.

[bomccarthy]

ORIGINAL: Gunnulf

Turn 16 - 16 October '43

Simple to summarise, this turn QBall pretty much bombed everywhere in North Germany. Quite impressive really with 150 city bombing raids in total on a total of 47 different hexes, a new high. I've not been though all of them but they are 50 plane raids. Losses inflicted were maybe the best in a while with 98 level bombers, and 45 P38s, versus 67 Bf109s and 18 Me410s. Some quick maths puts that at at a 1.28% loss rate combined 8th AF & Bomber command. Hardly going to set the high command scurrying around for a new tactic due to overwhelming casualties. That its 47 different hexes for me makes it difficult for me to imagine this can be considered each wave as part of complex raid. This is not even a shotgun now, its a blunderbus!
I can't blame QBall, I've made plenty of mistakes which haven't helped my case and they are snowballing, but clearly the bombing experts have hit on the right formula to work the game mechanics to the best advantage to minimise intercepts, maximise escort coverage, increase interceptor fatigue and reap huge damage. Maybe if 8th Air force had adopted the strategy of fanning out everywhere in individual wing sized attacks on multiple different places in a free-for-all then they would have come back with 1-2% losses rather than 5-7% they sustained? Needless to say all the inteceptor gruppes in range (given the area, thats almost all) have fatigue between 57 & 84 as the bounce out and back each time, eventually no doubt asleep at the controls, underperforming in battles, increasing fuel use and operational losses. This has to be a big part of the difference between this game where I am getting raped, and the other where so far in '43 my air force has well over double the day fighter pilots remaining in Luftwaffe Reich?

How much damage is your industry suffering from these small raids?

[Gunnulf]

Worse than I've had in other games at this point, matching the VPs. Doesnt feel like disasterous levels yet but not good after 17 turns with 93 to go. As Carl says a brief respite to rebuild a little certainly welcome. Fuel levels only recently stopped dropping, oil still climbing marginally but I expect that to change when Romania starts getting hit.
Overall:
Fuel - 10% damage
Heavy Ind - 20% damage
Manpower - 1 % Damage
Oil - 10% damage
Resources - 10% damage
Syn Fuel - 29% damage
U-Boat - 19% damage but never more than -1VP
Vehicle - 9% damage

[Helpless]

So far it doesn't look so bad.

Btw, are you using priority factory repairs? Some of the u-boat sites are very lightly damaged, it should bring them back to 100% very quickly.

[Gunnulf]

Feels pretty bad Maybe I've just been a bit lucky with opponents so far. I definately feel like under pressure from QBalls campaign. U-boats - Some are, some aren't on priority as i've put priority on some of the deeper fuel targets as being more of a long term investment in scarce AP points in industries I can actually use, rather than a just the 4.5 months of benefit to of a few VP points.

I've been fiddling about with the Luftwaffe in the lull this term. 4 NF gruppes get scrapped to switch pilots to day duty. Actually we have more pilots than airframes for the day team, I'm guessing this lends support to many of the losses being non-fatal operational losses due to fatigue?

[Gunnulf]

Turn 18 - Oct 30 '43

Heavy rain in the north and south keeps the air activity pretty much zero. We take stock and reorganise to be hopefully in slightly better shape when the weather clears. I have a couple ideas to switch strategy a little, more on that later - but any ideas welcome obviously

On the Winter line the Allies close up to the front line. Some of their infantry seems relatively low CV so its possible that there are minor supply constrictions, but nothing major I'm sure, so its not a cunning ruse to avoid attrition and as above I apologise for doubting QBall's aggressive spirit for even a second
On the south end of the line, infantry replace 1 US Arm div in the city of Caserta which makes them a more formidable target. On the flank though Guards Arm Div is looking like 14CV, but only dug in to level 1 in the clear, and while its raining the ground is firm and the mud is yet to start so Herr's LXXVI Pz Korps forms up for a counter-attack. 8th Br Arm Bde activates in reserve but Herr again prevails and 16 Pz, 26 Pz, 15 PzGn & 10 SS PzGn force the Guards to retreat with 1700 infantry lost and half the allied tanks out of action. Looks like they reduced from 14 to 3CV and will join the Americans to rebuild in reserve.

Thats pretty much all the excitement this turn though. November just around the corner and the invasion clock ticks down once more...

[Gunnulf]

Ok, actually while I was hovering on end turn this news flash came in. We saw a further opportunity to dish out some hurt on the north flank too. Ideal Panzer country, no rivers to cross and 53 Br Inf Div with 1st PO Para Bde and 2 Commando Bde in support but not yet dug in. Seemed originally like less of an opportunity, but this flank has the potential to be more vulnerable as he could stack an attack on the corner salient from 3 hexes. So Von Schweppenburg forms up LVIII Pz Korps on the start line (3 PzGn, 29 PzGn, 16 SS PzGn with elements of HG Pz in reserve and Nashorns attached), the attack goes in and we are filled with a little dread as air support starts to appear despite the weather. Luckily it seems to be just a single squadron of IIC's that didn't get the memo to stand down and our Luftwaffe massacres them as a bonus, while on the ground its a resounding success and we cause 4.5k losses, plenty of them Para and Cdo squads. Another triumph for the Panzerwaffe, which does something to avenge the bombing losses and hopefully go some way to instill fear in the allied ranks. In future of course I won't report every action but right now these are the only 2 actions. Definately no more attacks this turn. I think... But thats got to be at least 9VPs of casualties I reckon so I'll chalk that up as progress.

[loki100]

Very satisfying .. chapeau

[Gunnulf]

Yep quite satisfying for sure, allows us to set the initiative a little at least at a tactical level. Aside from Sardinia where we were unable to stand due to odds and isolation effects he has only managed to make one attack against Schmalz PzGn, which was a hold, but we have managed to find the right situations to launch 7 or 8 successful armoured attacks on ground of our choosing in Sicily and the mainland. Its still only 43, and the tables will turn when his air power gets stronger so we'll just have to enjoy it while we can. You just know that at some point full of memories of these salad days I will try to launch a Wacht Am Rhein attack and it will fail utterly miserably!

[Gunnulf]

Turn 20 - 20 Nov '43

All quiet on the southern front really. Light rain so air activity re-commences in ernest. He is hitting railyards and airfields, but while technically we can probably expect fresh invasions from now on with 2 TF, I expect he will delay to get a better weather window and at least 4 TFs ready with prep more than the 50 minimum given that this could be his last shot at Rome before he has to start thinking about NWE. Until then he will batter away with his air no doubt.
We have to jockey around garrison units in France when 21 Pz takes a drop in CV, possibly a ToE change, but luckily we have enough spare garrison elsewhere to avoid penalties. Does pay not to try to over-optimise the garrison levels but sometimes we sail pretty close to the wind...
In the meantime we wait, contemplate, study chicken bones for clues...