Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA)

[John B.]

I am really enjoying your AAR. Thanks for all the effort you're putting in to it! [&o] Forgive the obvious question but to the Germans only get VP for allied manpower losses or do AFV and artillery losses give VP as well?

[Gunnulf]

My pleasure John glad you are enjoying it, its been a fun game full of frustrations so far and far from being a chore writing it down helps collect my thoughts. It helps that works been fairly relaxed last month too
AFAIK Allied losses for VP purposes (at least its stated in the manual) are the sum of all personnel lost, and crew from AFV, guns and aircraft are counted per the size of the element lost.

Turn 21 - 20 Nov '43 is a work in progress
No land combat with light mud in Italy now so the Winter line is quiet aside from light patrolling. The weather is light rain and looks likely to switch to heavy rain next week so the invas-omter flickers around the zero mark. VPs from bombing climbs upward, we keep the Luftwaffe Reich day bombers grounded, rebuilding for when the weather turns a bit. To be fair the flak is doing almost as good a job as the fighters right now. He's broken through the -1000VP mark now so we fire our chief of staff and send him to command a division in Army Group North for the winter.

[Gunnulf]

Turn 23 - 4 Dec '43

Snow on the ground in Germany but the skies are clear, however we have switched up tactics a little. Early we mixed in some Air Superiority to try to prevent fighters straying over the Fighter command dead zone that is the Ruhr, but we combined that in with a majority of interception elsewhere. We have started an experiment with boxes of Air Superiority to take advantage of maybe a little Allied complacency (well founded of course). The majority of intercepts where he has P38s are still average but We catch a few bomber streams at the far end of their runs and dish a lot of kills, in the most extreme case we gang 160 interceptors on a 50 bomber raid on the run in to Berlin and down 20 of them, with others looking damaged. Overall this is probably his worst week by a long margin with 190 LBs reported lost and 100 fighter, double our losses overall. Compared to previous games I've regularly got 300 LB in a turn but this game QBall is smarter and has avoided anything like this before. He might not even notice and can certainly afford the losses. I can't keep these boxes static and will have to shift them about or he'll just avoid them, but hopefully we can make these deep missions less of a milk run until the Mustangs show up.

Elsewhere everything pretty quiet. We shuffle some infantry into the winter line to free up a PzGn div, and also II SS Pz Corp HQ moves out and is replaced by the LI Gebirgs Korps, now led by Gen Schoerner (with his level 8 ninja infantry skills).
And we wait for a clearer weather forecast to signal danger ahead...

[Gunnulf]

Turn 26 - Dec 25 '43

Last couple turns flew by quickly and we are getting a healthy turnaround of 2 or 3 turns per day which is good considering the Chicago-UK time difference. I always like a speedy game and have fond memories of a couple great WITP games with RRoberson where we averaged 5-7 turns a day despite the Arizona-UK difference! Anyway before the really harsh weather kicked in he did a number on most of the V-weapon sites to get them pre-damaged ahead of time. These were supposed to be secret sites and a witch-hunt is launched. We get our best man, Canaris on the case via Enigma. We clearly can't trust the postman...

Otherwise we maintain a reserve around Rome in case the weather changes and he has a last minute invasion on standby, but I suspect he has mostly canned the idea. His recce flights have no doubt picked up there are troops in the area and that its not a soft target. We'll see, but while we watch this door our thoughts turn to NW Europe and we ponder where the blow might fall here... Right now of course its anybodies guess.

Anybody?

[decourcy2]

Carlkay surprised me with a late December invasion... it was worse than I expected, lost Rome, several infantry divisions.

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: decourcy2

Carlkay surprised me with a late December invasion... it was worse than I expected, lost Rome, several infantry divisions.

Smokindave did the same to me, you don't need to get the task forces back to the UK till mid January 1944 so there is time

[Gunnulf]

Absolutely, there is still a chance and have not ignored the possibility. As is by magic the weather forecast does give a potential window of opportunity on the horizon... Though, the reality might be different, there will likely be light mud on the ground, he'll have missed the early Rome points, he already has his bombing bases in Foggia, I suspect he's done enough recce to know there are troops in the area though its been mostly recce to support bombing airfields. I think the points against weigh more for the pro's, but I'd like the excitement of him trying, very curious to see if he can pull it off at 11th hour. If he doesn't take a run at it though then likely Italy will stay like this through much of '44 though and thats at least a few missed city points.
On balance I wouldn't be surprised if QBall has already taken away alot of his UK troops already. Its possible he might try grab the channel islands as a consolation staging post, or overall he might prep to be on standby for a slightly earlier chance window in the North Europe. I think he'll value a possible early start there more. If he chanced an early Brittany against lighter opposition the disadvantages of time/distance to Germany are slightly reduced I guess.

But I've be wrong before, and likely will again...

[Gunnulf]

Turn 27 - 1 Jan '44

So here is 1944. We predict a big year ahead and we have the Allies exactly where we want them. We are surrounded on all sides so we can fire in any direction and hit them.
VPs not great but could be worse.
Production numbers, slightly worse than last time but not disastrously.
Ground losses have been quite low I think as aside from the 2 regiments and the fortress brigade lost on Sardinia the German army in Italy has fought and won on ground of its chosing. For example we have lost just 40 PzIII, 105 StugII, 24 PzIV, 5 Panther & 9 Tigers. On the other side 749 Shermans, 124 Churchills, 49 Crusaders, 330 Stuarts etc... He replaced those losses by noon, but still, i'm still going to list that as a positive!
I feel like we have Italy locked down reasonably well, while the NWE Europe defenses are taking shape. Every major port is fortified to at least level 4 and some on the way to level 5. We still have a bit of shuffling around to do as the fresh divisions arrive.

The Luftwaffe has taken a battering, but is so far in more or less fighting shape over Germany. That won't last long. QBall definitely got the better of me and somewhat disappointed I was rarely able to make a dent. Thats only going to get worse obviously but we'll try and get a few good results along the way. We do still have a very potent bombing force. Time will tell if we get a chance to use it a few times at least.

[Gunnulf]

Turn 28 - 8 Jan '44

Pretty quiet over the Reich due to the weather. Down in the underbelly the weather is a bit mixed, the south of Italy is clear on the ground and in the sky. A perfect day for a trip to the beach. However, from Anzio to Pescara and further north its light mud and rain. Exactly in the right place to frustrate either an invasion on the north or south coasts. We run some Ju188 recon flights from Ciampino over Tunis which confirms two units there, though the photos are a bit light on detail. Obviously this could be a unit and a TF so seems likely he's not given up hope yet. Meanwhile we send a bunch of Bf109B8 recce behind the lines. To the north are 4 armoured units, very possibly deployed to attempt to exploit a breakthrough, or even (as our imagination runs riot) to link up with an invasion around Pescara... Or they could just be armoured brigades in reserve to protect against an opponent who has proven a few times willing to launch a counter-attack or two... If only we had a second Panzer division we could send that way.
Well, I'm very curious to see if he pulls the trigger on this. The forecast for next week goes back to light rain across Italy, but without risk there is no reward obviously...

[Gunnulf]

Turn 30 - 22 Jan 44

Snowfall over the Reich. Looks like he continues to fly but only 5 small raids find their targets; one night raid on Essen causes no damage (flying in the snow at night sounds like a particularly aweful job for sure!), but the day raids cause pretty impressive damage. Just 49 liberators cause 79% damage to a size 30 HI target at Braunschweig, while just 22 liberators cause 69% damage to the V-Weapon factory at Neustrelitz and 24 bombers cause 29% damage to the size 20 Griefwald factory. I cam't wait until we get back to 150+ raids finding their targets...!

However most discouraging is when we actually engage in the air as now there are already Mustangs flying AS missions over Hannover with devastating results. 3 battles on different days for the same interceptor groups; first on day two then 152 Bf109s thing they get the drop on 47 P38s and 50 Bombers, however we lose 10 to his 2. Then the next day come the Mustangs, we bring 216 and lose 25, they bring 72 and lose 4. Day 7 the same groups engage. The now battered Bf109s can only muster 130 and lose another 24(!) while the 65 Mustangs still serviceable lose just 2. Should we even bother flying? I'm expecting 44 to be devastating overall but I would hope that now and again we can get the odds to do some damage. None of this seems encouraging and we need to have a big think about our response. There is no doubt however that QBall has mastered the air war here.

[bomccarthy]

ORIGINAL: Gunnulf

Turn 30 - 22 Jan 44

Snowfall over the Reich. Looks like he continues to fly but only 5 small raids find their targets; one night raid on Essen causes no damage (flying in the snow at night sounds like a particularly aweful job for sure!), but the day raids cause pretty impressive damage. Just 49 liberators cause 79% damage to a size 30 HI target at Braunschweig, while just 22 liberators cause 69% damage to the V-Weapon factory at Neustrelitz and 24 bombers cause 29% damage to the size 20 Griefwald factory. I cam't wait until we get back to 150+ raids finding their targets...!

However most discouraging is when we actually engage in the air as now there are already Mustangs flying AS missions over Hannover with devastating results. 3 battles on different days for the same interceptor groups; first on day two then 152 Bf109s thing they get the drop on 47 P38s and 50 Bombers, however we lose 10 to his 2. Then the next day come the Mustangs, we bring 216 and lose 25, they bring 72 and lose 4. Day 7 the same groups engage. The now battered Bf109s can only muster 130 and lose another 24(!) while the 65 Mustangs still serviceable lose just 2. Should we even bother flying? I'm expecting 44 to be devastating overall but I would hope that now and again we can get the odds to do some damage. None of this seems encouraging and we need to have a big think about our response. There is no doubt however that QBall has mastered the air war here.

Aren't these screens subject to a great deal more FOW than when you check the city itself for damage? I am not sure - I thought someone discovered that a while ago.

What are the experience levels in your fighter units? I seem to recall that this has a major effect on the Luftwaffe in 1944. Also, what were the altitude settings of your units and the P-51s? Above 25k ft, the P-51 had a performance advantage over the Bf-109 and FW-190, reflected in the game's high speed at altitude (which you can see in the Editor). The P-51's best speed starts at 28k feet (I believe) - this was its critical high blower altitude. Actually, all of the second-generation Allied fighters (except the Typhoon/Tempest, Spitfire V, XII, and the LF Spits) performed best at 28k ft or higher. You can try setting your Luftwaffe units at no more than 25k ft (best altitude for most Bf-109 models), but the Allied fighters will still get the altitude bounce if they are flying higher. I think the best altitude of FW-190A, F, and G models will be no more than 20k ft; FW-190D models will probably be the same as the Bf-109s. The Germans were never able to mass produce an adequate auxiliary stage supercharger; they had to use nitrous oxide for high altitude performance, and that only lasted 10-15 minutes.

[Gunnulf]

Good point, yes there is an element of FOW on the report, I haven't checked the actual damage, will take a look at that on the next turn. - edit: notwithstanding these are on priority repair the damage doesn't look like it was too far from the mark.

Re. The p51 engagements, these were at 28k from memory (not home at mo) which he has of course dictated in his AS directive. I'm not sure I can constrain my interceptors not to fly that high? He flies his bombers at 27k I think so going to have trouble on that one too. Will check all the details on the next turn this arvo...

Turn 32 passes without much incident as either nothing flies or everything misses. We ground the Luftwaffe anyway pending a new new plan.

In the south though he has been bombing the apexes of the line, no doubt softening up for a few weeks to hit hard when the weather improves.

[Gunnulf]

Turn 33 - 12 Feb '44

One thing I was worried about was on the previous engagements with Mustangs our BF109s showed in the loadout screen to have droptanks whereas his P51s didn't. We had these on to allow a bit more range and overlap the intercepts. Jut in case this wasn't dropping the tanks before combat we took them off, however the impact on results seems to be zero and the Germans still get chewed up, at 24k versus his 25k despite in theory the interceptors reacting and being the ones to chose to engage. Why wouldn't you at least attack from above?
Elsewhere our mix of a BF109 interceptor screen and 2 'killer' AS boxes of 150 Fw190s & Bf110/Me410s works reasonably well (though not without a few engagements versus P38s where we lose 13-0) with a few isolated battles where we can pounce on just bombers, but results like this against the Mustangs make it unsustainable. Being able to limit the range gruppes intercept at would be really useful, as without it interceptor roam into danger too often. I'd be tempted to try again just AS missions but it just means more fuel burnt for less planes in the air over a smaller area i think and relies on just occasional ambushes.

[bomccarthy]

ORIGINAL: Gunnulf

Turn 33 - 12 Feb '44

One thing I was worried about was on the previous engagements with Mustangs our BF109s showed in the loadout screen to have droptanks whereas his P51s didn't. We had these on to allow a bit more range and overlap the intercepts. Jut in case this wasn't dropping the tanks before combat we took them off, however the impact on results seems to be zero and the Germans still get chewed up, at 24k versus his 25k despite in theory the interceptors reacting and being the ones to chose to engage. Why wouldn't you at least attack from above?
Elsewhere our mix of a BF109 interceptor screen and 2 'killer' AS boxes of 150 Fw190s & Bf110/Me410s works reasonably well (though not without a few engagements versus P38s where we lose 13-0) with a few isolated battles where we can pounce on just bombers, but results like this against the Mustangs make it unsustainable. Being able to limit the range gruppes intercept at would be really useful, as without it interceptor roam into danger too often. I'd be tempted to try again just AS missions but it just means more fuel burnt for less planes in the air over a smaller area i think and relies on just occasional ambushes.

I took a quick look at the Editor: Bf 109G-6 top speed is 400 @ 21k ft, while P-51B-10 top speed is 439 @ 25k ft. This means your units were a few thousand feet above their best altitude for speed. For comparison, the P-38's best altitude is also 25k (399 mph for the G/H model and 415 mph for the J/L model), while the P-47's best altitude is 29/30k ft (433 mph for the D-15 and 430 mph for the D-25) Unfortunately, there isn't much you can do about it - the Allies can choose the altitude at which you have to defend. To make matters worse, the B-17's best altitude for speed is 27k ft, so they will almost always bomb from an altitude higher than your best altitude. If it is any consolation, you'll never have to face the P-47N, P-51H, or F4U-5.

Keep in mind that you are in the months where the real-life 8th AF fighter units gutted the Luftwaffe.

[Gunnulf]

Turn 34 - 19 Feb '44

Little bit confused this week as on the last turn we pulled back the Bf109 interceptor groups out of range of the new Hannover 'dead zone'. Clearly he will just shift it when his fishing reels nothing in but I figure its probably quite a focused AD he has set up so we'll end up playing hide and seek. However what I thought was out of range as per the range circles on the left map proved to be wrong as the over-enthusiastic pilots find a way to go the extra mile to meet their grizzly fate. 114 Bf109 lost in a series of 7 battles in that one hex that I thought we didnt even cover, which has me pulling my hair out somewhat. Everything is grounded until we work it out. Maybe something simple about what those range circles mean but I thought that was fairly clear, but we'll be out of planes before we find out at this rate.

Otherwise 188 bombing raids over Germany, with a few over the channel V-sites. Elsewhere the weather is pretty wet and muddy down south. He continues to soften up the mountain troops at the south apex of the Winter line (soon to be renamed...). The line is still strong, if that corner falls he still has a long way to fight back through the hills and mountains and we welcome the action. This would be his first real attack on German troops, aside from the Sardinia skirmishes. Elsewhere the March garrison changes are looming but we are well over-garrisoned everywhere pulling in a couple of negative VPs per turn, and the extra garrison city, Toulouse has long been garrisioned already.

We are continually mulling over where the Allied landing might be but no recon flies yet, and all we can do is be best prepared for all eventualities. If I had to put money on it I'd bet he pulled back his TFs early and will take a run at Brittany against what will have to be the lightest opposition and use the extra time to make up the distance to Berlin. But he values (and plays well) his airpower so maybe he will feel the need to hit the channel islands first. OR, I might be wrong. Much more likely to be honest. We'll just have to wait and see.

[Gunnulf]

ORIGINAL: bomccarthy

ORIGINAL: Gunnulf

Turn 33 - 12 Feb '44

One thing I was worried about was on the previous engagements with Mustangs our BF109s showed in the loadout screen to have droptanks whereas his P51s didn't. We had these on to allow a bit more range and overlap the intercepts. Jut in case this wasn't dropping the tanks before combat we took them off, however the impact on results seems to be zero and the Germans still get chewed up, at 24k versus his 25k despite in theory the interceptors reacting and being the ones to chose to engage. Why wouldn't you at least attack from above?
Elsewhere our mix of a BF109 interceptor screen and 2 'killer' AS boxes of 150 Fw190s & Bf110/Me410s works reasonably well (though not without a few engagements versus P38s where we lose 13-0) with a few isolated battles where we can pounce on just bombers, but results like this against the Mustangs make it unsustainable. Being able to limit the range gruppes intercept at would be really useful, as without it interceptor roam into danger too often. I'd be tempted to try again just AS missions but it just means more fuel burnt for less planes in the air over a smaller area i think and relies on just occasional ambushes.

I took a quick look at the Editor: Bf 109G-6 top speed is 400 @ 21k ft, while P-51B-10 top speed is 439 @ 25k ft. This means your units were a few thousand feet above their best altitude for speed. For comparison, the P-38's best altitude is also 25k (399 mph for the G/H model and 415 mph for the J/L model), while the P-47's best altitude is 29/30k ft (433 mph for the D-15 and 430 mph for the D-25) Unfortunately, there isn't much you can do about it - the Allies can choose the altitude at which you have to defend. To make matters worse, the B-17's best altitude for speed is 27k ft, so they will almost always bomb from an altitude higher than your best altitude. If it is any consolation, you'll never have to face the P-47N, P-51H, or F4U-5.

Keep in mind that you are in the months where the real-life 8th AF fighter units gutted the Luftwaffe.

Yep, the only choice I have really is fly and fight or not. Either way the bombing is pretty much unaffected. I'll keep on trying to through a couple of spanners in the works, and its very frustrating to not fully understand a few things that are happening here. But at least the ritual gutting of the Luftwaffe is on schedule

[Gunnulf]

Turn 35 - 26 Feb '44

Finally some ground action, long expected obviously from the focused preparations he has been running. After 4 weeks of 300 bombers hitiing the hex 3 times a week then 170k men from 8 divisions get a 3-1 result. In fact I was just about to switch out the 2 regiments there so QBall timed in well. Maybe he noticed the activity behind the lines and pulled the trigger early. But with the firepower deployed (QBall really doesn't do things by half, its all or nothing) I'm not sure the new units will have held anyway and we are better defending in depth. No real problem as at 1 hex per month its going to be a long way to Rome let alone the Gothic line but I'm sure he has an invasion up his sleeve not the weather is starting to turn. Our big frustration this turn was we deployed 300 fighter forward to intercept the bombers this turn but they literally intercepted every recon flight, for no effect and ignored the bombers completely. Maybe I should have done a focused AS AD but I was fairly sure they would do what I expected. I think I need to employ a chief of staff to run the air war, clearly I am rubbish. Air skill 3 at best.

[Gunnulf]

Turn 36 - 4 Mar '44

This is the turn the railyard strikes in France commence. Nothing really in Brittany or the Netherlands yet (which makes me think he wants these even more... re-inforcement bias? (pun intended...) We'll see!).

Otherwise down in Italy he switches his unit bombing to 9 runs on a single hex in the centre. No prizes for guessing where the hammer will fall next in the next few turns!
Otherwise plenty of airfield recce behind the lines but no sign of a fresh invasion down here. We have ample reserves if/when it comes it will likely be successful in the end but hopefully at least a little painful to achieve. Again time will tell and we can only wildly guess when and where. There are a few more divisons than we need in Italy so we might have to send a few north in the not too distant future obviously.

[Gunnulf]

In other news we have noticed that we are suffering from a severe lack of armaments and assault guns in our ToEs. Which is strange as none of the Stug factories are damaged and the armament factories pretty much the only things untouched. Across the board though divisons on refit fill up with infantry and tanks but miss artillery, anti-tanks guns and assault guns. Which isn't good obviously and I need to study the chain and work out why fast... There seem to be plenty in the pools; 3200 Pak40, 4500 81mm Mtr, 900 105mm howitzers, though only 24 StugIIIG. But none seems to be going where it is needed and artillery bltns arriving depleted at OKW stay empty too. The manual and forum need to be scoured again.

[Gunnulf]

Turn 37 - 11 Mar '44

Railyard hits in NW & NE France continue but also a new element is a box of 130 interdiction raids by groups of 25 Hurricane IICs around Paris. Presumably either to cause a nuisance to traffic shifting around (although there are plenty of alternate routes south), a show of force, or fighter bait (its always seemed a bit strange that AS missions happen in complete stealth unless they connect, but presumably there are 500 spitfires buzzing around invisibly above this circus). QBall does share by email that he lost 500 planes to flak and operational losses this turn. None to my fighters as they stay grounded, we get a much better result clearly if we don't fly!). He is riding his hard in anything less than a blizzard, through right now its mostly cold or light rain in the north while down south its clear in the sky and dry on the ground.