Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA)

[Gunnulf]

Turn 53 - 1 July '44

Bit of a ceasefire due to respective work and family stuff on both sides but rolling forward again now. Bit of a shock as QBall manages to demonstrate a mastery of logistics again to launch a second invasion a few weeks earlier than I estimated would be possible. I think this is due to a couple of TFs that were already prepped with double divisions on the flanks for impact and regimental landings in the sandwich recycling released TFs. Smart as he gets a bunch more beaches on the cheap further easing his logistics. I wonder if he already placed his mulberries or whether he saved 1 for here further east. Either way I don't see him having huge dramas. Le Havre is level 4 fort with 2 regts but I don't expect it to last long. He also did and expert job lining up landing a further 4 airborne divs with at least 2 further brigades attached for another massive airborne invasion in support. Really not much I can do about this.

However the worst bit is he combines this landing with a schwerpunkt from the 1st army which joins up, albeit tenuously to trap a panzer korps and and infantry korps in Normandy. Very good timing as last turn they were about to leave but stupidly I delayed a turn. Why didn't I? I guess really because we are already well ahead of historical timeline here I wanted to slow him down at least another week and utilise the bocage terrain on that flank. Were it not for the 2nd invasion that would have been valid. I manage to break the seal, but I am quietly confident its not going to last and may end up costing me more. But after a lot of soul searching I decided it was the in-character thing to do as C-in-C to at least try and rescue my troops. Never leave a man behind etc... However we'll see what the cost will be with his countermove. It did at least allow me to detach the SUs from the otherwise doomed units so saves me some Stug bdes and Flak btlns. But it might be a false economy. What is annoying is when they were temporarily cut off every hex in Normandy not within a hex range flips. I can see the arguement for partisans etc... but strikes me this wouldn't be immediate and there would be rear echelon elements here not a complete vacuum. It does complicate matters as we saw in Brittany that units don't retreat into the pocket as they are effectively cut off behind which is very annoying.

Anyway, in short, a bit of a bugger of a turn and morale certainly fragile in the German officers mess

[Gunnulf]

Turn 54 - 8 July 44

Gotta zoom right out to fit in the extent of the allied advances in France now. Rather ironically at first glance you might be mistaken for thinking the Normandy landings have happened in reverse and thats the extent of the German advances from the beaches... but sadly not 1 Kampfgruppe from 21Pz with 33 tanks managed to ride out but it looks like the bulk of 21 Pz, 2 Pz and 3 PzGn are bottled up along with 4 Inf Divs. I guess thats less than the Falaise pocket losses but still more than I bargained for. Maybe they can at least divert some attention and sell themselves dearly.
Otherwise his tanks are punching south though seem to backtrack north of the 215th parallel for some strange unbeknown reason... He will no doubt be trying to set up a sweeping arc, though I think most of his armour is up near the coast at the moment. We'll leave the bare minimum in Bordeaux to prevent garrison loss points before thats triggered to avoid them getting cut off. The Toulouse garrison should be fine and go out via the Rhone valley or Italy at worst case. 19th Army will split north and east to guard the Italian passes and the rest to Alsace. I don't think he'll be landing in the south any time soon but I'm not sure its going to be worth contesting at all. Maybe some token security units to prevent a bit of flipping and make him at least have to expend some time and effort.

[loki100]

ouch, this phase can be grim when the Allies are still fresh and relatively well supplied. And its such a constant set of choices between trying to delay and when to pull back to stretch their supply lines.

I'd not be too down about Normandy. He's going to have to come up with a solution. Screening is valid but will tie down quite a lot as he daren't risk a suicide break out once his main army is well to the east. Attacking will take him time and resources?

[Gunnulf]

Fresh, well supplied, and very large. I keep spotting more and more 15th Army group units. He really is running that theatre on a shoestring right now which causes us problems. I don't want to draw down Italy too much and give him it for free. I've taken a few more divisions but ultimately if he wants it he'll need to bring stuff back. Otherwise for now it's denying him points from a capital, and we can consider this a strategic reserve of fresh troops for later.
It's hard not to be down about Normandy, 2pz particularly is pretty fresh but somehow not a single corps HQ got trapped. So far still in Army C2 range but not for too long. I'm considering flying in even a single HQ with a mediocre leader we can spare to lose, at least make it a little more potent a force once out of Army C2 range. Cherbourg is well supplied, and there is plenty of bocage si if he wants it then it won't quite be free.
Otherwise the line has pulled back in relatively good order and II SS Pz korps bolstered the north flank. It won't hold but it shouldn't fold
Famous last words...
At least it should be a little while before the next serious landing... I would think a few TFs will go back to the med, but at some point a landing in NL or Denmark doesn't seem too unlikely.
The one bright spot is that Le Havre held out against 4 assaults which cost him a bit. The forts are at zero but it's still a city and in C2 range so likely will cost a bit more in the final assaults next week.
Also we should mention while we have had coulple of turns dip to net -4vp at least last turn was a relatively more significant -22vp. The drift is still positive though and a boost coming when Paris falls will leap us into draw territory.

[Gunnulf]

Turn 55 - 15 July 44 (maybe halfway through, but probably not...)

After stubborn tenacity against 4 assaults this turn Le Havre frustratingly folds like a pack of cards with very few allied losses. This leaves them free to launch an attack on the north flank, pushing back our lines 3 hexes. Clearly close to the beaches the troops here are well supplied, fresh and most importantly massively well supported from air support on the beachhead and across the channel. It will take a miracle to slow this down and I doubt he will feel much compulsion to put much pressure on the southern flank below Paris, rather hoping to maneuver us out. I can't see that it won't. Without the 2nd landing we might have had a bit more luck holding the Seine line for a little longer, so kudos again for a well placed invasion.
In the Normandy pocket he doesnt have too much trouble pushing back the line and trapping and capturing 1 infantry division. The best we can hope for is to draw back a couple of hexes each week and hunker down in Cherbourg really. If the hexes hadn't flipped when the pocket was first created we might have been able to utilise some existing fortifications but they were wiped out.

[Gunnulf]

After the moves the overview of the line in northern France looks like this. For a brief moment before it gets hammered again in Picardy obviously. I have complained to QBall that it takes alot of time and effort to assemble these beautifully crafted lines and its really not helpful that he feels the need to keep destroying them. As the first landings came a month earlier than historically of course for perspective Operation Cobra would just be about to kick off in 2 turns really, so we can see we are well behind the curve. With these new beaches closeby I can't imagine there are too many logistics problems in the north at least and I can't see much chance to slow this assault down in front of the Rhine before winter.

In Italy he pulls a couple units off the north flank and a turncoat Italian unit is in the front line. We run some recce across the front and while no detail there are 3 units in Naples, with the French mountain troops just outside the port and I suspect he is getting ready for some landings down south again. South of France or trying to break the Italian deadlock? Or both?

[Gunnulf]

Turn 56 - 22 Jul 44

Past halfway! Its all downhill from here. The Panzers reverse gears are taking a beating. We call in some Italian engineering experts but it will take a while to come up with a solution. The Allies push back our hasty holding position and we fall back to the last position we'll attempt a delay in central France. No prizes for guessing where the blow will come next. If we can deny Paris and force him to work a bit here until August we can consider that as best as we could hope for I think in the circumstances. The pressure on the south flank is minimal, in fact a cavalry regiment is assigned to screen west of Paris so we oblige and 9Pz duly routs them for their impertinence.
We stand to lose a few regiments trapped in Rouen and no doubt another division that won't make it to Paris but in the grand scheme of things it could be worse for sure. Manpower pools are at 45K and climbing slightly, and we have managed to steadily fly out a regiment each turn from the Normandy pocket so likely 2 of the 4 Infantry divisions trapped there will be saved, leaving 2 Pz & 3 PzGn to deny him Brest for as long as possible, possibly to the end. Sucks to lose those 2 effectively but better to be doing something moderately useful than being wiped out and returning as a shell.

Otherwise of note the last few turns has been a bit of a switch in bombing tactics over the Reich. Less blunderbuss and more targeted perhaps on key industries he wants to hurt (though i'm yet to work out the pattern). Makes sense with the reductions in the bombing VPs multiplier. Also a complete cessation of bombing in Romania with the Soviets approaching they will be out of action anyway. Until then they are fully repaired and pumping hard. In fact these oil fields never really suffered much all game and fuel stocks have been building up ok. Plenty of damage about but looking at the charts they are all going up or pretty much sideways really. So far...

QBalls asked how much of the AAR he can have a peek at and I've cleared him up to end of page 4. After that there are a few sensitive items I think.

[Gunnulf]

Turn 57 - 29 July 44

First off down in sunny Italy. Something is definitely afoot as QBall has thinned the line with US Inf regiments holding parts of the line on the north flank and an Italian division on the south. We run some recce in the air phase again and we can see there are a few arnoured reserves up north but more interestingly a troop concentration around the port of Naples. As noted before the 2 main possibilities are a landing in the south of France to hasten proceedings here, or north Italy to try to break the stalemate. Its difficult to contest either too hard wherever he lands but what is clear is he is short on troops down here and seems like any landing that does come might not have a huge follow up. If he lands in Italy I might (famous last words) even be able to contain it depending on where. If its the west coast we have forces deployed as you can see, if its the east coast he will get ashore but can be boxed in by the Gothic line and the mountain. In fact I wonder if I might be able to hold the Gustav line with regiments only and pull back more troops given what he has in the sector. But so far I am still taking the line of considering Italy as a kind of strategic reserve/fleet in being for the future. When we do pull back to the Gothic line no doubt several fresh units can go even further back to the Reich. But for now there are enough city points down here for me to consider making this hard for him for as long as possible.
Of note you might see that in Rome is the rebuilt Fallshirmjager regiment that was lost in Sardinia. Its been off the line refitting in Milan since but finally has morale up to 73 to the point where it might rejoin the division without diluting the core. Its taken a while to get there for sure, stuck around the low 50's for ages.

[Gunnulf]

Clearly sticking a poor infantry regiment to cover a hex in the line opposite our old friend Hans Hube and his veteran XIV Pz Korps is like a red rag to a bull and we greenlight him to launch an attack, forcing the unfortunate GIs to retreat as no reserves activate. Likely he will just pop them back in the line, maybe with some armour this time but there is the small chance that it will cause some small diversion from the impending invasion force, even if its just a regiment. Either way its a fun and easy VP for the losses.

But compared to the action up north this is still a minor sideshow obviously. More to follow....

[Gunnulf]

North West Europe

As expected the Allies carry on pushing at the weak spot caused by the gap between the Somme and Oise rivers. Not too much can do about this lack of good terrain other than at least we know where he will continue to attack next week too. If we can keep him to a couple of hexes advance on a narrow front thats the best we can really hope for as we go into August. At some point we will need to break contact and head for the real defense lines. But right now the fighting is fairly limited to this area, a bit north of Paris as he clears up units that were slow to retreat due to ZOC blocking. We have some reserves available to the east to fill the Somme gap and will cycle some more out of Paris ready to do the same next week. After that, we have probably outstayed our welcome. His spearhead is looking less healthy than it was before but thats not to say he doesn't have fresh armour waiting to be unleashed. However, on the flipside until he gets a depot in Paris or Amiens there is a bit of a constraint on how far he can push east, and every week before he can set that up is a bonus.
Maybe soon we'll know if down south he commits to land in the South of France or in Italy which will help clarify our strategy a little. South of France will see little resistance now as the bulk of 19 Army is screening the upper-Loire river line, but it would be good if it takes a landing for him to clear South France ultimately. If we pull out too early he might retask any invasion of South France to Italy. Just a small consideration, but a piece of the jigsaw maybe.

[Gunnulf]

Turn 58 - 5 Aug 44

Operation Dragoon kicks off in the south of France, just 3 divisions; 4th British, 4th Indian & 9th US with 2 airborne bde/regts in support. Its already a ghost town down here and the landings go in unopposed, exactly where I expected they would but unless we heavily stacked those 2 beaches then contesting them were beyond us right now really. It was really tempting though as the Med theatre is clearly threadbare and probably the ideal time to try to utilise the Luftwaffe and try to box in these landings. On balance though for me covering Italy, rightly or wrongly, was a more realistic and joined up objective.
That said given its a relatively limited landing it might be tempting to garrison Toulon & Marseille with a static division to slow down the process of the Allies capturing these but to be honest I think the battle has moved on.

[Gunnulf]

Up north is where the real action is though. Sadly we underestimated his ability to break through the line in 2 places and 6th Fallshirmjager is trapped in Amiens. Again timing is everything as we were about to pull everything back to slightly more defensible positions. Trouble is so long as the weather is good, he will continue to be able to focus every aircraft from bases on the beaches and in England on this northern flank then there really isn't too much hope to stop the juggernaught. His supply bases are too close and he has too many divisions from the combined army groups to rest and recycle troops. You have to feel a bit sorry for the allies in the south who could be forgiven for thinking they don't have an air force.
I need to fire up a metaphorical cigar and have a think about what can be done next up here. There is a natural line from Ostend-Lille-Sedan but not really any realistic chance to hold more than a week or 2 really given the situation. Maybe we should have gone straight there but it didn't seem the right thing to do and ultimately we would just be fighting these same battles, just further east and sooner. Sacrificing some troops for a little time and space is possibly still valid, but there is still Aug & Sept to get though before we can hope for the weather to turn a little in our favour.
In other news the Normandy pocket is finally down to just 2Pz & 3PzGn holed up in Cherbourg, which likely will stay that way I suspect.

[Gunnulf]

While we decide what to do here is the current VP situation. At least we are extracting a cost in casualties from the Allies as well, albeit not huge. On balance most turns he is getting as many points from bombing and cities to creep upwards with occasional dips down when the fighting is heavy. I think we can safely factor in a +600 boost for Paris and Antwerp which is a question of when, not if which safely pushes QBall out of negative territory straight away. I'm sure he will break into Germany too of course, just not sure when yet and at what cost. Given QBalls experience I think I'll probably consider this a personal victory if we contain him to an actual Allied minor victory at this stage, but we'll see...

[Gunnulf]

Post turn moves pretty much complete this is how the NWE front looks. Up north we'd like to have pulled back more but 2 FJ div on the far flank was zoc locked and could only move 1 hex. As always this might be a false economy to try to bring them out, but we'll try, hopefully 6 FJ holed up in Amiens will keep the allies relatively well occupied for a week. Then we have identified 2 lines of resistance we will try for to try bring the allies to the main westwall/rhine line in time for winter. No plan survives contact with the enemy...but we'll give it a shot.
With this in mind 5 Pz army pulls back to the east bank of the Seine in Paris, and 19th Army in the south pivots towards the Swiss border, hopefully to pull back to the Vosges in relatively good order. We have contemplated the pros and cons of Festung Paris to leave a division or 2 behind and deny the allies this crucial rail junction as long as possible. However given that the beaches are up north around Le Havre I'm not sure what real impact this will have.

Otherwise down south until now I had a chain of Security regiments as a chain from Toulouse to Lyon to keep the natives from flipping. But this is now fully evacuated aside from 3 regiments and a corp HQ who have taken refuge in Toulon and Marseille. With a few Ost battalions each city has about 5CV. This might delay these 2 ports from coming into operation immediately given that he so far only landed 3 divisions. This plan might be revised next week but on the fly I decided I might give it a shot. If they are lost its not a huge drama, these regiments weren't really going to put up much fight anywhere else.

[Gunnulf]

Turn 59 - 12 Aug 44

Years of training for so many soldier ultimately come down to one single momemt, and this week 6 FJ div sell themselves in Amiens to buy 1st Army a weeks relative respite and the rest of OB West a chance to break contact relatively cleanly. It takes best part of 200k allied troops and 3 assaults to clear the city, although ultimately only 2k allied casualties versus 13k PoWs is not a great swap, the damage not done elsewhere is valuable. We will now pull back to the next line, although I have yet to decide whether its worth trying to contest Paris with a division or more to force QBall to divert resources and delay that depot coming into action. Anybody thoughts?

Otherwise if we squint our eyes really hard and channel our inner oddball positive vibes we can almost argue that we are almost back on historical track... sort of... Paris will either fall now in mid Aug, or end of the month if we sacrifice units. Antwerp will be safe until early Sept at least. We've lost a few divisions along the way but (famous last words) nothing too outrageously catastrophic. St Nazaire and Le Havre have fallen but the bigger ports of Brest, Lorient and Cherbourg are secure. Down south Op Dragoon is ashore in early Aug but just 3 divisions for the moment and it will take more follow up troops before he can clear Marseille and Toulon while Nice might stay axis for longer. Which leads us to wonder about the channel ports too. We can't hope to hold them for long but even a regiment or 2 each might buy further time and complicate his logistics a little seeing as he is running a larger than historic army on the continent. Further thought needed this afternoon.

[loki100]

in my game vs Smokindave I overdid the stay behind concept - that added to mismanaging the eastern front then left me terminally short of troops going into the Rhine battles.

I'd say yes to hold onto Paris. He probably has to attack and the VPs etc are nice. On the channel, Dieppe can be good as it forms a part of a fortified line in Belgium (and screens Antwerp). Beyond that, I'd pick one of the level 2 ports? -- logic here is they are quick to bring on line with a TF and quite valuable for resupply, so worth denying more than a bigger port.

I really have to get a PBEM of this gem going again [8D], reading your wonderful AAR is only teasing my appetite.

[Gunnulf]

Time will tell whether I overdid it, quite probably a couple of times I made a valient effort to cover the retreat of units that were slow to pull back due to zoc blocking when I could have been more ruthless and made a cleaner break. Up north 1st Army has taken a hammering from ground and air but is still holding, though bit low on Panzers (20-50 panzers per division). There is a fresh korps on the Ostend-Sedan line which I will integrate and maybe send a couple units to refit if I can.

Otherwise the panzers in 15th army are better off on the southern flank of his thrust (50-70 panzers per division), and 5 Pz Army and 19 Army are in almost factory-fresh condition really having not seen a single allied Jabo. I can see the merits of piling every FB into the north but I wonder whether there is merit for the allies to spare a little airpower elsewhere? Even a little harassment could make my retreat less orderly. As it stands the troops on the southern part of the westwall are going to be fresh. The threat remains the channel-end but we are already digging in the gap in the westwall here with pretty much a division per hex and a few extra forts. But before that Antwerp is a level 4 fort and we are creating a festung on the island approaches. I suspect he is already prepping TFs for this though.

Re. Paris one of the two divisions had had on standby to stay behind has a slight zoc block which means it can't retreat as far as I'd like when we break contact here so looks like that makes the decision to stay behind easier. Lesson for the allies maybe, sometimes blocking the axis makes the job harder...

Re. the channel ports you are probably right, my initial instinct was Boulogne as the only level 3 port and 1 regiment can only retreat that far so seemed logical, but I've added Dieppe to the plan too.

Screenshot below shows the nice tidy front lines before QBall messes them up again... We have a bit further to go next turn again when it will look very much like the 1914-18 front line. Not sure we can hold that for 4 days let alone 4 years though!

At the rate we are going I suspect I will free up QBall for your game before too long Of course at some point I'd be happy to line up a game with yourself too whenever you like.

[Gunnulf]

Finally down the in Med. No action in Italy. We pulled back a few infantry divisions to Germany that were surplus for the moment now he has shown his hand in the South of France. Here you can see he is ashore and advanced to our line of resistance at Nice. Not sure if will hold but its a neater shorter line than the existing forts on the border, we can always pull back to them later but might as well get him to fight for Nice if he wants it.
He has nearly joined up with the north thanks to a partisan uprising (at least i'm fairly sure he hasn't marched this far from the beach in 1 week...!) and is 4 hexes short of a link up. Until he liberates a port or two though the operation is immaterial obviously but I am sure he will have enough to take these before very long. Still weeks to go before the end of summer but time ticking along a bit.

[Bismarck2761]

>>At the rate we are going I suspect I will free up QBall for your game before too long Of course at some point I'd be happy to line up a game with yourself too whenever you like. >>

Please do a running AAR!

[Gunnulf]

Turn 60 - 19 Aug 44

First some good news down in sunny Provence. Actually two good bits; the first assault on Marseille failed, our ad hoc garrison of security troops and ost battalions bolsters by 30 Schelle Bde and some 88mm AT guns hold off 5 Allied divisions and an armoured brigade. Forts are damaged from 4 to 3, and we can see QBall has maneurved a further 2 divisions ready for the next attempt so seems unlikely they will repeat the feat but 2 weeks delay is better than 1 of course. The second news, and time will tell whether it affects the first, is that we spotted that QBall already withdrew 1 TF and is running a single beachhead (at least I think there were 2 to start with...). By our reckoning he has at least 9 divisions ashore so thats quite a stretch but I suspect he was expecting these ports immediately when he saw 19th Army had left. We had already been marshalling the Luftwaffe last week but we hadn't spotted the greater impact they might have.
So this week 600 bombers reek havoc in the bay, doing more than enough damage to isolate the beachhead, +4 in the key hexes. Just 40 allied fighter on duty cause fairly negligible casualties to the escorted bombers. To be fair even the original double beachhead would have been isolated but our optimistic hope is that he has already expended some supplies and that this won't help the cause of reducing the ports. I suspect he'll have enough ammo but we'll see. No doubt he can bring in more air to try to win back control but if there is ever going to be a chance to put these bombers to use then now seems like it and we'll have a bit of fun trying to see if we can cause some trouble for a change. He has linked up with the north so its not going to be critical for long, but I suspect the Allied plan was for supplies to flow south to north rather than vice-versa...

Up north update to follow later, but in short no real dramas. Paris surrounded but no assault attempted yet, and some harassing attacks on the withdrawing troops.