Where I have altered my mind - certainly in the last couple of years - is that while I still believe that Germany and Austria-Hungary take the lion's share of the blame for the reasons I have outlined in previous posts, I am really not sure about the extent to which Germany had a cunning plan to start a wider war at that time (on the basis that they would soon be at a disadvantage compared to Russia/France).
There are three likely possibilities:
a) There was no plan but the Kaiser was simply criminally negligent in allowing A-H to dictate events once it was clear they weren't going to take immediate action (which would at least have been understandable).
b) There was a plan and the Kaiser was at the heart of it all along
c) There was a plan, the Kaiser was at the heart of it but he then got cold feet (or a sudden realisation that following through on this would lead to disaster) but by this time von Moltke and the General Staff effectively 'took over the show'.
There unquestionably was such a cunning plan: the Von Schlieffen plan. It was not the sort of thing that can be dreamed up and organized overnight -- mobilization orders, maps, railway schedules, etc, etc, had to be written out and put in place. The question is when exactly was the decision made to execute it.
For whatever my opinion is worth, I am inclined to believe option "c". I rather think the German military realized that the crisis over the assassination of the Archduke could be used as an excuse to execute the Von Schlieffen plan, and that was why they encouraged the Austrians to make maximum demands to Serbia. There is reason to believe that the Kaiser attempted towards the end of July to divert the German army to attack Russia, and stay on the defensive against France so as not to invade Belgium and provoke Britain. However, von Moltke apparently argued that there was no time for the massive re-work of the railway schedules that would involve.
Civil war? What does that mean? Is there any foreign war? Isn't every war fought between men, between brothers?
--Victor Hugo
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