Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice)

[jwolf]

If Dave conceals his carriers for an extended period, I'll probe somewhere to elicit a reaction.

This is the difficult part. I would not want to be part of the "probing" task force.

[Lecivius]

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[Canoerebel]

4/1/43 to 4/7/43

Marshalls: interesting SigInt about Kwaj base force aboard a ship bound for Ulithi. I've seen reports of other units bound for similar bases, like Pagan. But this is interesting because it raises the possibility that Dave is pulling back from the Marshalls. Recon will tell me more over the next few days. My carriers and combat vessels are recovering from the recent action, so I couldn't act on this intel yet (too, Dave could set a massive ambush using KB when and if I moved into the vacuum). But this info would prove helpful in assigning prep targets for units.

Other than that it's been quiet in the Marshalls and Gilberts of late. Supply at Tarawa at 90k, Tabituea at 20k.

Cocos: Similar situation here - Dave hasn't come back after getting his tail caught in the crack. Supply at 17.5k, forts nearing 4.

China: Dave will take Kukong in a day or two, unless he's timid. Overall, the MLR looks good at the moment.

Pacific: Darned quiet. One possibility is that Dave's familiar with my record of striking deep and has erred on the side of defending deep early. If so, there's some irony there, as I haven't considered striking deep yet. I've been more focused on moving forward in steps that don't risk everything early. Thus far it's worked well, and I haven't seen a need to take chances on the order of what I did vs. John III (Sumatra) or Obvert (Sikhalin Island).

[Canoerebel]

4/8/43 to 4/13/43

China: The Japanese have bombarded the Kukong garrison into oblivion but haven't attacked to finish them off. Each day gives my units a hex to the rear time to entrench. The problem at Kukong is that the units weren't drawing supply, even though the right hex sides are open. I'm evaluating whether Dave is pulling back from the Sian front to reinforce the Changsha/Kukong front. He can move faster, via railroad, but I can shift units fairly efficiently, as long as my MLR doesn't collapse.

Two AE Oddities, I Think: I have noticed repeatedly that there are times when fort building at certain bases progresses more slowly than it ought and that ships unload supply at ports more slowly than they ought. This is a regular, though not widespread, occurrence. I think it's something mechanical inside the game system as opposed to some failure on my part. I've noticed this repeatedly over two games with many instances and haven't been able to figure out anything that I'm doing wrong. The only commonality is that it seems to be within the game itself. For instance, at the same time, I unloaded supply and similar engineers at two Aleutian Islands. Fort building progressed at one notably faster than at the other. I've seen that before, from time to time. And, for instance, I have small cargo vessels that are unloading at Cocos Island remarkably slowly. It's a level one port, but the rate of unloading isn't explained by that. The same vessels unload far more quickly at other level one ports with all other factors being the same (absence of naval support in both cases, for instance).

Cocos Island: SigInt reports 6th Guards Div., currently at Pegu, prepping. Could be disinfo, but I think Dave will mount a major counterinvasion, so I'm buying it. The key to Cocos is supply. I've had lots of small xAKs and AGs come in, only to have supply dribble ashore sometimes at a rate of 10 or 20 points per day. The cargo ships have backed up. Dave's navy is going to come back soon and wreak havoc, so getting supply ashore is of paramount importance. I have an RN base force (nav support) inbound on fast transports. They need about four more days to make it. Whether they make it is certainly in question. At the moment, Dave is quiet here. That's gonna end soon.

Marshalls: I'm preparing the Allied bases and forces for a major enemy counteroffensive even while testing my hypothesis that Dave might've decided to withdraw from the Marshalls to concentrate further back. Recon is working but the info produced thus far is too little to make deductions. Troops for quick invasions are inboud to Hawaii, just in case it does look like Dave's bases are weekly held.

[apbarog]

I've seen a similar oddity with unloading. It's very rare, but I've seen it. Track how much you are currently unloading, if any. Disband the task force and reform it, and start unloading again. This has resolved it for me.

[jwolf]

FWIW in my one Allied campaign, vs. the AI, I found that Kukong was untenable because supply simply would not flow there despite the rail line. So I withdrew my forces to a position in the rough terrain 2-3 hexes up the rail line and held there until a time much later, when I could maintain a broad offensive in the China theater.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: apbarog
I've seen a similar oddity with unloading. It's very rare, but I've seen it. Track how much you are currently unloading, if any. Disband the task force and reform it, and start unloading again. This has resolved it for me.

Thanks, aparog. I tried disbanded an AG carrying supply, re-created a TF, and put it dockside (it's a small ship). It's unloading, but still much slower than I'd expect. That's what prompted me to think over things and commit an RN base force (with nav support) via fast transport. I think that'll be an effective band aid, if I can get 'em ashore.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

FWIW in my one Allied campaign, vs. the AI, I found that Kukong was untenable because supply simply would not flow there despite the rail line. So I withdrew my forces to a position in the rough terrain 2-3 hexes up the rail line and held there until a time much later, when I could maintain a broad offensive in the China theater.

I didn't notice the supply-draw issue for awhile. The failure of the units to recover at all from enemy bombardments eventually drew my notice. But I'd never counted on Kukong as part of the MLR. It was really accidental that I still held it. The 3x hex to the rear has four decent corps entrenching, two of them for many months, and should be pretty stout.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: apbarog

I've seen a similar oddity with unloading. It's very rare, but I've seen it. Track how much you are currently unloading, if any. Disband the task force and reform it, and start unloading again. This has resolved it for me.

Besides the per-ship limit for the amount unloaded each turn, there is a total unloading limit for the port, dependent on port size. It is likely that the level one port there reached the unloading limit for the port before it reached the per-ship unload limit. I also presume that the limit applies even if some ships are unloading amphibiously because there is a limit to how much can be dumped on the beach without port vehicles to haul it away.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: apbarog
I've seen a similar oddity with unloading. It's very rare, but I've seen it. Track how much you are currently unloading, if any. Disband the task force and reform it, and start unloading again. This has resolved it for me.

Thanks, aparog. I tried disbanded an AG carrying supply, re-created a TF, and put it dockside (it's a small ship). It's unloading, but still much slower than I'd expect. That's what prompted me to think over things and commit an RN base force (with nav support) via fast transport. I think that'll be an effective band aid, if I can get 'em ashore.

AGs and all other support ships unload at a much slower rate than xAKs.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

FWIW in my one Allied campaign, vs. the AI, I found that Kukong was untenable because supply simply would not flow there despite the rail line. So I withdrew my forces to a position in the rough terrain 2-3 hexes up the rail line and held there until a time much later, when I could maintain a broad offensive in the China theater.

The supply distribution algorithm prioritizes units in the field ahead of units at a base, so if supply is insufficient to get some everywhere, the units in a base will starve. Many players simply rotate units between the base and an adjoining hex to keep units from starving. But if you don't want to waste supply by having to counter-bombard the enemy, leaving units there out-of-supply is a valid decision.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

AGs and all other support ships unload at a much slower rate than xAKs.

The xAKs aren't unloading either.

I think it's an anomaly in the coding of certain bases or their ports. But I'm not sure. I'm not even sure it's the same bases in each game. It's just every once in awhile I come across a situation where ships carrying supply do not unload as expected at a port.

[Korvar]

I do not recall ever observing supplies not being unloaded where they "should" - although I could just be missing it entirely. Of course, they do not always unload as quickly as I would like.

One thing to pay close attention to, as I'm sure you know, is damage to the port. This factors in mostly with unloading certain devices where the undamaged percentage, based on the size of the port, has to rise to a certain amount (probably to be equivalent to at least a size one or two port) where the game considers there to be sufficient dock capacity to handle the offload. I can't say that I've seen the equivalent with straight supplies though...

I have seen stubbornness with supply offload at atolls and that is usually solved by reforming the supply TF as amphibious. It can still be slow as snails if only xAKs are involved, but it's usually enough to at least get a trickle of supply offloading.

[Canoerebel]

Sometimes its atolls, sometimes it's not. None of the ports are damaged.

It's only occasional, but I've played so many turns in the past few years that I've begun to notice - it happens every now and then.

It's not important. I just take it as part of the game. And, to this point, it's never factored in a meaningful way. But it does happen and I do think it's something within the game itself.

(This question will end up taking on a life of its own, with folks wanting to figure it out. I raise it in case other players a happen to notice it too, which would be interesting.)

[Korvar]

Yes, that's why I put so many caveats in my statements - I realize my sample size is but a fraction of many on this forum. I'll certainly keep an eye out for it now, and it will be interesting if anyone else chimes in with similar accounts.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Sometimes its atolls, sometimes it's not. None of the ports are damaged.

It's only occasional, but I've played so many turns in the past few years that I've begun to notice - it happens every now and then.

It's not important. I just take it as part of the game. And, to this point, it's never factored in a meaningful way. But it does happen and I do think it's something within the game itself.

(This question will end up taking on a life of its own, with folks wanting to figure it out. I raise it in case other players a happen to notice it too, which would be interesting.)

Good lord! Cap Mandrake's M&M Enterprises has infected this AAR too and is keeping the local labour on strike until contract rates double!

[Canoerebel]

4/14/43 to 4/19/43

Cocos Island: An enemy sub put a TT into one of four fast-transport AMC's bringing in an RN base force. Nevertheless, the damaged ship made port. 28 nav support points are ashore; the rest should unload tonight. If Dave is coming for this base - if the SigInt that 6th Guards Div. is prepping is true - the nav support could be key to the defenses. At the end of the hotly-contested invasion, the Allies had 6k supply to support 500 AV. Supply is currently at 20.5k and could reach 25k in a couple of days. If he comes, he'll probably bring carriers (I hope), giving me info that may be useful in other theaters.

Marshalls: Recon indicates Dave is withdrawing his troops. Roi Namur appears vacant. The other islands have 1k men or less with few guns or vehicles. If true, he's withdrawing to a safer MLR he deems more secure. It may be a mistake to cede this much territory without making me fight for it. Allied troops and ships are gathering to move on the bases in the not-too-distant future, once I've confirmed the garrisons and once I have a feel for the whereabouts of his carriers.

China: Dave hasn't take Kukong yet, but only because he hasn't ordered an attack. The Chinese defenses in the woods-rough hex to the rear are now in place. I hope it's enough. I hope I haven't drawn dawn improvidently to augment here, weakening another place that ends up in his crosshairs. Always things to worry about.

[Canoerebel]

4/20/43

Vanished Naval Support: Hey, Cocos reports no naval support. Is this yet another game wonkiness? If so, this one might have hurt.

[BBfanboy]

There was extensive discussion of NS recently in the War Room or main forum. There is a bug that does not let NS do its job if the port SPS is (0). It isn't just a display issue, the NS simply doesn't help with anything. This is based on testing by members.

EDIT: Here is the thread:

tm.asp?m=4621522

[Lovejoy]

I think this has happened either in another AAR, or someone posted a question to the main forum.

Edit: here's the thread tm.asp?m=4621522