Early in this thread Chickenboy discussed mortality rates and offered some ideas in comparison to SARS and flus. Seasonal flu mortality figure typically used is 0.1% and, IIRC, Chickenboy posted that this might be above that, around 0.2% or neighborhood. At the time, 3% to 5% or higher was the widely discussed figure. That has since dropped to something around 1%. By the time this is over and retrospective analysis is complete Chickenboy's projections might be right on. Given what he does, no surprise. Chickenboy's first post, page one, given below. He amplified his thoughts further down that page and on page 3. I recall that a week or two into this, as more information became available, he posted to update his outlook and apologized to the extent earlier thoughts were off target. Bear in mind that this post was made 2/26/20, when the outbreak in South Korea was in its first days. Given Chickenboy's background, and how long he's been a member of this community, he's a tremendous in-house resource.
Chickenboy, Pg. 1 of this Thread:
I believe that this virus and disease will have a similar trajectory to that of MERS/SARS some 17 years ago. Coronaviruses are not Orthomyxoviruses (influenza) and act differently in transmissiblity and mutation rates, so again the MERS/SARS analog is probably more useful than H1N1 (1918; 2009) or other seasonal influenzas.
In the case of MERS/SARS, the virus circulated amongst mainland China for some time before diagnosed, a bit longer before there was recognition of it by central authorities and then longer yet before there was even a haphazard and incomplete response. International spread was a feature of the disease. Here's a very interesting and concise timeline from the CDC's website:
https://www.cdc.gov/about/history/sars/timeline.htm
To whit: The disease ran rampant in China for a while. Then it spread internationally. Cases that were not laboratory-confirmed were later re-stated (see entry for July 2003) and halved. In between, the overreaction to cases was addressed (de-stigmatization of SARS) and travel advisories lifted after a few months.
A curious thing about the SARS virus was how it disappeared after a year or so. No isolates were recovered post-2004. Poof. Gone. NIH states that the disappearance was due to quarantine and isolation of affected cases and-of course-due to the research money poured into NIH on interventional strategies.
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/diseases-cond ... onaviruses
COVID-19 does behave somewhat differently in the human host (replicates higher in the respiratory tract versus deeper in the lungs like SARS) and therefore may spread more readily. By nature of its replication patterns, it will also probably have a lower case fatality rate. That's exempting the exacerbatory effects of other co-pathogens (COVID-19 PLUS influenza, streptococcal pneumonia, TB, asthma, emphysema, other respiratory disease in the same patient) of course. I have not seen *any* efforts to parse the effects of COVID-19 from other co-pathogen effects in infected, but this is likely one of the rationale for making sure to get one's annual flu vaccine ASAP if you haven't already done so.
Viruses spread more readily when they make one sick, but aren't fatal. Paradoxically, the sicker people are with a particular virus, the easier it is to diagnose and ultimately contain. The Los Angeles Times had a nice article on this a couple weeks ago.
https://www.latimes.com/california/stor ... a-epidemic
What do I think will happen? Something more akin to SARS, albeit with a more significant global spread in the interim. I expect the peak of this will probably not be too far off and that, with the onset of warmer weather in most of the Northern Hemisphere it will abate. I would be surprised if we heard much about this 12 months from now, excepting in cooler climates (you listening, Oz land?) as they slip into their annual influenza cycle.
The economic and social impacts on our increasingly globally connected supply chains are a totally 'nuther question. I'm limiting my observations to the disease cycle and virus longevity in our public per se.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
