Tyronec vs BrianG. 12.03

[HardLuckYetAgain]

ORIGINAL: mktours

ORIGINAL: tyronec

It looks like there might be a golden opportunity to create a huge pocket around Penza. The right wing pincer goes in this order: 6 inf Ds easily dislodge the (5=28)hex, the panzer Ds drive through that hex, attack the retreat troops and capture the 2 NW rough hexes, before Inf Ds and PzDs attack and rout the (8=35) hex (better use 7-9 divs to attack it to make sure success), then dislodge the (6=25)hex, once Axis control the 2 rough hexes behind the line, the entire Penza soviet troops would be doomed. The left wing pincer looks easy, the sequence should be doing the right wing pincer first, to make sure it has enough troops, besides, once axis clear a 3 hexes gap, the follow Pzs could drive through and enjoy a free ride, then do left wing pincer.

Am not strong enough to take out those three stacks and gain any further ground. I might get the 5=28 but one or both of those rough hexes likely has an infantry unit that the Panzers might not be able to shift. Last turn I got held up for 3 attacks by a 12 stack behind a river. My combat strength looks higher than it actually is, the reason is the VVS have control over that area of the map. The Soviets have full GS for every combat, after the battering the Luftwaffe took last turn they are not even fit to do any bombing in the area and GS has been out of the question in '42 except for the occasional attack where I know the hex is largely VVS free.

However as you say there is a threat against Penza and I should continue to work around it from both flanks.

I believe the 2 NW rough hex is lightly defended, once you dislodge the (5=28), there is not difficult for your PzDs to run through that hex, attack the retreat troops and capture these 2 rough hexes, I think that just capture these 2 hexes will be a victory for your side this turn, soviet troops is at least locked and can't escape. It looks like you have more than enough troops to be directed into the right wing, the break through in the right wing is the key, the left wing doesn't have to succeed, and it deoesn't have to seal the pocket this turn, if just lock down the soviet troops, then would be enough. soviet is strategically wrong here, the point is don't let them escape. I would choose to focus on the right wing and use as much troops as possible there.
but it is your game and would be your choice, I just comment for fun and I hope you don't mind.

MkTours always give good advice

[HardLuckYetAgain]

The 4=11 hex would have been nice but I would have attacked the 1=3 hex just to keep a fort from being built in it. Once the 3=33 hex is taken though it is normally game over for the Soviets down here. Especially since you have a good amount of turns left.

IMO the Soviets have way too many troops in the Caucasus that could have been better utilized up North. Barring any mass penetration by the Soviets up North the German are in excellent position up North and the South. Your pocket will hold up North based on the pictures shown. The Soviets are spent in that area.

[chaos45]

You still have the initiative...Brian is on the back foot in both the center and south. I still don't understand his defense in the south....he is wasting a lot of men for really nothing.

I think he should defend Baku don't get me wrong but leaving all those units that far from supply lines is just silly....the attrition losses alone in trucks and men must be massive for almost no effect on the Germans.

All those men would have been much better used defending and fortifying them main pass to Baku like a month ago in game time. With the concentration of units he kept there is no way the Germans could have gotten through if he had retreated and just dug in...lots of good soviet units there. Put those GRC in lvl 2-3 forts with the cav in reserve behind them and the Germans would have never gotten through...now his defense is looking riskier each turn as hes just burning men like he doesn't need them.

At this point he has burnt more men than the manpower he is risking losing...….

[mktours]

I think that you might miss a golden opportunity here. The (5=28)hex is 3 weak divisions, about 30000 men, 6 Ger infD plus tons of pioneer, would be 80000+, since it is a critical battle, it is worthwhile a good leader, and let 3 HQ participate to get more SU into combat, would be a sure win.

After dislodge the (5=28), put the (17-47)SS unit into that hex, it would have (47-10-15=22mp)left, the(6-40)pz regiment (40-7-17=16mp), the( 12-44) PzD will have (44-4-15=25mp left, the 2 (18-41)PzD will have (41-2-15=24mp)left, that is already 5 units,

Suppose we use 17+12+9CV=39CV, plus 6 InfD cross river, that is 9divisions to rout the (8=38),would be an sure overkill. I believer we could use the Pz regiment, then 2 Divison is spare

(17CV+12CV)/2=14CV enough to do a haste attack, before they participate in the deliberate attack against the (8=38). The 2 (18=41)PzD move on to attack the rough hex , that is at least one PzD could have 16Mp to deliberate attack against the rough hex adjacent to the (8=38), or 2 PzD do a haste attack against it, chance is that would be weak unit, otherwise soviet would put it at front. Would be an easy win.

After the (8=38)hex captured, it only need 9mp to cross the river, then the (44-46)stack of Pzs would go into that hex to have (46-19-9=18mp), plus 3 InfD cross the river, would surely overkill the (6=25)hex.

After that the (14-45)SS wii have (45-14-5=26mp) after reach the (8=38)hex, the (11-34)PzD, the (15-32)PzD will have 10Mp left after reach the (8=38)hex, they could go on to assist the capture of the second rough hex or occupy it.

The InfD needed to do cross river attack is 6+6+3=15, you have more than that in the region which could have at least 7mp to do the attack.

[tyronec]

I think that you might miss a golden opportunity here.

You could be right, maybe take all those hexes in one turn. Maybe close the pocket with the left hook in the same turn, it depends on the combat results and what Soviet troops are in the second line.
Unfortunately with the server game you cannot try it again with a different strategy so we will never know, except maybe when the game is over and Brian can tell us what he had in reserve.

[tyronec]

Some good counter attacks by the Soviets, have finally begun to use their Tank Corps. There was always going to be a deep penetration somewhere when they were committed.
Break the Finnish pocket, will have to try and herd it back.
In the center break the main pocket with a 10 hex advance. It is not going to be easy to make that pocket secure again but may be able to persuade the lead Tank Corps to join it.
The Caucasus pocket holds but that rough hex wall at Derbent will be tough to break, I have maybe three turns before the two Guard Rifle Corps get back to support it.

[HardLuckYetAgain]

Did you get an unlucky route or retreat of the German infantry? Looks like one division just disintegrated or am I missing something?

[corbon]

I suspect the 6-3 east of Pachelma now resides under the 5-0 due east of the Moks lettering.

[tyronec]

Did you get an unlucky route or retreat of the German infantry?

corbon is correct, they are all still there. Just the strange retreat paths.
Still working on this turn, taking me longer than usual !

[tyronec]

End of turn.

AGN is OK, my Finnish excursion was a flop and am retreating behind the river.

In the Center have herded a Tank Corps into the pocket at the cost of one Brigade routed out. A lot of routs this turn, just hope he doesn't have enough to overrun my air base cluster. If I hold out this turn then the Soviet counter attack will have been to my benefit, drawing a lot of Soviets into the open.

Hungarians managed to surround and rout a stack.

Caucasus. Went much better than expected, won the first two main battles and had a go at the third one not really expecting anything. After that stack went was able to keep on going. There is only one unit in Baku, presumably infantry. It helped that had shifted all the Stukas down last turn and the VVS is too weak here to do much.

[HardLuckYetAgain]

ORIGINAL: tyronec

Did you get an unlucky route or retreat of the German infantry?

corbon is correct, they are all still there. Just the strange retreat paths.
Still working on this turn, taking me longer than usual !

Thank you. I'm looking at this on a phone since my Laptop died I have found that the retreat pathing is more detrimental to the Germans in 12.x.

[HardLuckYetAgain]

Only a matter of time now with this PZ cutting off the supply. Should be a very nice catch of units coming up. Very nice Tyronnec [&o][&o][&o]

[HardLuckYetAgain]

What is the number of units that you have cut off down South?

[tyronec]

I think there were about 55 Divisions and 5 Corps at one time, though some of them have already gone.
Several of the units that were retreating through the mountains for a few turns were shattering or surrendering, and there have been a couple of pockets eliminated already.

[joelmar]

Very nice. I didn't think you would cut through his big CV stacks south of Makha so easily, so I have the answer to my doubts and I must gracefully admit I was wrong in thinking you should bring back pz in center.

That said, if I compare to 2x3+ game in which we had a very similar situation on turn 50, but in which we used all 4 panzer armies in center, the fact is now on turn 59, we are well in advance in center, and we will also get the Georgian valleys for sure before turn 70 (but probably not Baku). So that makes me wonder how much of that is due to that missing pz army in center? And if it is so, are the 3 VP for Baku worth it? Will the big defeat in Caucasus and all those Soviet units lost give you enough edge to catch up? Interesting stuff from my point of view.

Also I wonder if Getting Baku should get the Germans more VP? Anyway, I think that taking Baku is a cool achievement in itself and is worth some sacrifices.

[Telemecus]

The interesting thing will be now or soon all the panzer armies can be brought up to the Volga anyway. So not sparing the troops to make a very hard defence of the corridor along the Caspian is just going to mean more German units in the centre anyway.

[tyronec]

So that makes me wonder how much of that is due to that missing pz army in center?

In this game a definite YES.
The benefit of attacking towards Baku is that there is no escape for the defenders, Soviets have to decide how much to commit to the Caucasus and then if Baku is taken all those units are lost. Axis have the advantage of the central position, they can feint towards Baku and then continue or switch them back to the center.

Also if Baku is taken the whole area South of Stalingrad is a dead zone for Soviet supplies and is not going to need much of a garrison. There is no port supply unless isolated so keep that rail line cut East of Stalingrad and the Soviets can do nothing further south. That has got to help if you are coming under pressure in 42 or 43. Presumably if you can hang onto Rostov into '44 that is an going to help with surviving till the bitter end. Of course am speculating here, never having played past mid '42.

[joelmar]

Soviet defensive strategy was far from optimal in this game, you could get those results and it's definitely very good. War is about making the best of your opponent error, and that is exactly what you did.

Also, from what you say, I get that you play Bitter end. We are going for victory conditions, which might change a little the relative importance and choices of the objectives. 3 VP for Baku is probably not good enough to put an entire pz army down that hole for a few months. But I agree having Baku and the Georgian valleys in a game going '43 and beyond is probably a bigger asset than anything you might get in center. That's even without counting the large number of Soviet troops that will die there.

[tyronec]

We are not playing Bitter End, just a reference to playing through to '45. When I looked at the game after the Blizzard I didn't think there was any prospect of getting a VP win in '42, if at all. Even if Axis are doing well the rail supply modifier looks to make it too difficult in '42 but maybe possible in '43 if you can keep the Soviet army down to size. Looking forward to seeing what happens in the 2x3.

[chaos45]

Short of a massive mistake on your part the game is super done now, great job. That panzer army will still be tied up for awhile in mop up operations in the south, but end result is it will allow to expand or at the least defend your far forward position for far longer.

Also historically speaking.....the game should be over as its unlikely the soviets could have continued to resist with how much you have taken esp once you add Baku.