ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay
ORIGINAL: warspite1
So the very first question we need to have a consensus on is when, realistically, Hitler would have decided a Med strategy is the way to go.
My view is that such a strategy should not be considered until June - and this would have been after the armistice is signed. I say this for three main reasons:
1. Going for any strategy - be it a Med strategy or a Soviet strategy or a Sea Lion strategy - is totally superfluous to Hitler's thinking until such time as Poland and France are defeated. After all, who - least of all Hitler - is going to imagine how the war will pan out in September 1939.
2. Only once Hitler knows Mussolini has joined the war, does the Med even come onto anyone's radar.
3. During May and June 1940 Hitler has his hands full trying to beat France, Britain and their Allies. To suggest that at this time Hitler is going to be diverted from this major operation (Case Yellow) to start thinking earnestly about Spain, and having in-depth conversations with Mussolini and Franco, while France has yet to be resolved, just seems highly unlikely.
Why is this important and the place to start? Well for two reasons:
a) it governs how quickly, after France, an attack on Spain would take place - and that is really important in terms of the knock-on effect elsewhere, the preparedness of the various belligerents etc
Anyone could have concluded that a cross-channel invasion was a fool's errand. Once that point is reached, the obvious next option to get to the British is Egypt. That adds other advantages as well, regarding Middle Eastern oil. They could have come to that conclusion well in advance. And Italy's involvement can easily be anticipated and prepared for. That's what plans are for: to handle contingencies.
If the BEF is still in France, it would not be a fool's errand - unless you are assigned to do it.
If the BEF has been destroyed, it would not be a fool's errand - unless you are assigned to do it.
If the BEF was evacuated without its equipment, it would not be a fool's errand - unless you are assigned to do it.
Nazi Germany can't have detailed plans with Italy unless and until Nazi Germany knows what Italy is willing to do and with what. Since it would be the Italian fleet doing the lifting of supplies and units to North Afrika, other than what flies across the sea, Nazi Germany is dependent on Italy. If you would actually consider that, Italy should come up with plans (not Nazi Germany) then ask Nazi Germany if Nazi Germany would be willing to help and what they are willing to lend.
Nazi Germany would have been better off planning and implementing a cross channel attack even before France fell. If the Armme would have continued to attack on land with the Luftwaffe concentrating on any shipping evacuating the BEF, the losses could have been staggering to the British. It it could have been done before the BEF was even evacuated, there was little in the United Kingdom that could quickly oppose it on land. One the Nazi Germans cross the channel and have troops plus an airfield, the the British radar has little to no warning of raids - especially since some of the radar stations would be captured and/or destroyed.






