Eliminating Montenegro on turn 2

[Bavre]

ORIGINAL: stockwellpete

I have just run a test using my mod. I made the hex immediately to the north of Cetinje "high mountains" (there is a relatively high mountain there - Mount Lovcen) and I made the Montenegrin Detachment in Cetinje strength 10. It was not entrenched. I then operated 4xGerman Infantry Corps to hexes 183,99 182,99 181,98 and 180,98 with a German HQ unit, which put them in a row along the road leading to Cetinje. The A-H unit there (16 Corps) went up to the "high mountain" hex at 183,99.

The attack sequence was as follows . . .

German Infantry Corps number 1 - odds were 1-3 against, lost combat 0-3
German Infantry Corps number 2 - odds were 1-3 against, lost combat 2-3
German Infantry Corps number 3 - odds were 2-3 against, lost combat 3-4 so Montenegrin unit down to 5 strength points
German Infantry Corps number 4 - odds were 3-3 level, lost combat 3-4
A-H unit number 1 from high mtns - odds were 2-2 level, drew combat 2-2 so Montenegrin unit was destroyed

2nd German unit occupied Cetinje.

I'll do the test again in Hot Seat and entrench the Montenegrin unit in Cetinje. I am not sure but maybe those combat results were a bit favourable to the Central Powers and in another test where the casualties were a bit lower for both sides then the Montenegrin unit would have held on. Of course, it may have fallen on the next turn anyway, unless a fresh Serbian unit could have replaced it. But I think it would definitely have survived if it had been entrenched.

So increasing the strength of the Montenegrin Detachment to 10 and entrenching it (plus possibly adding the high mountain hex to the north of Cetinje) could do the trick in terms of this particular gambit. Could the CP player afford to operate 5 units there to take Cetinje? What consequences might it have for the CP elsewhere?

What CP General was this? Did you manually attach the corps? Because those odds look a lot worse than they should be.

[stockwellpete]

ORIGINAL: Bavre

What CP General was this? Did you manually attach the corps? Because those odds look a lot worse than they should be.

It was Albrecht Rating 5 and I had manually attached the corps.

I have just done the same test as before in Hot Seat. Montenegrin unit entrenched . . .

First German attack lost 2-4
Second German attack lost 1-4
Third German attack drew 2-2, Montenegrins down to 5 strength points
Fourth German attack won 4-1 (!), Montenegrin unit forced out of Cetinje
A-H attack from high mountains drew 1-1, Montenegrin unit destroyed

[Bavre]

ORIGINAL: stockwellpete

It was Albrecht Rating 5 and I had manually attached the corps.

I have just done the same test as before in Hot Seat. Montenegrin unit entrenched . . .

First German attack lost 2-4
Second German attack lost 1-4
Third German attack drew 2-2, Montenegrins down to 5 strength points
Fourth German attack won 4-1 (!), Montenegrin unit forced out of Cetinje
A-H attack from high mountains drew 1-1, Montenegrin unit destroyed

Ah, I did the test with the lvl 6 HQ and 3 ger corps with xp 1. Lost 2 AH and 4 Ger strenght points, got slightly lucky with the rolls however.
Does the high mountain actually do anything (lower supply or attack malus like a swamp)?

[stockwellpete]

ORIGINAL: Bavre

Ah, I did the test with the lvl 6 HQ and 3 ger corps with xp 1. Lost 2 AH and 4 Ger strenght points, got slightly lucky with the rolls however.
Does the high mountain actually do anything (lower supply or attack malus like a swamp)?

I just did another test with Rupprecht HQ rating 7 and 3x German Infantry Corps plus 1x Austrian Corps and still took Cetinje on the fourth attack.

I am not sure but does the high mountain hex stop the Germans operating a unit straight to the hex north of Cetinje? Supply on high mountains is 5 at that hex.

The other thing that might help is if the Jankovic 2nd Serbian HQ DE happened a week earlier.

[stockwellpete]

Another test with Rupprecht and 3 German Corps. Took Cetinje without needing the A-H unit. Montenegrin unit entrenched 3/3. I don't think they can defend against this sort of attack with a highly-rated German HQ.

[stockwellpete]

Further testing this morning, very interesting. I changed the terrain in hex 183,99 from hills to mountains. Supply remained unchanged at 9 because of the railway but the Austro-Hungarian unit was no longer able to move on to the new "high mountain" hex at 184,99 (directly north of Cetinje). So the attack now has to come along the railway line from Ragusa and the A-H unit can attack from the mountain hex 183,98. The Detachment defending Cetinje was attached to the Serbian HQ unit.

Test 1 - Germans took Cetinje in 3 attacks, losses (German losses first) 4-3, 1-3, 3-4
Test 2 - Cetinje held after 4 attacks, losses 3-1, 3-1, 3-2 AH unit 1-1
Test 3 - Cetinje held after 4 attacks, losses 4-2, 1-0, 4-2, AH unit 1-1
Test 4 - Cetinje held after 4 attacks, losses 4-1, 3-2, 1-2, AH unit 1-2
Test 5 - Cetinje held after 4 attacks, losses 2-3, 2-1, 2-2, AH unit 2-3

It seems that if you toughen up the terrain around Cetinje and attach the defending Detachment to the Serbian HQ then there is a reasonable chance of defending Cetinje. The next turn the South Serb Infantry Corp can go into Cetinje to relieve the besieged Detachment. Also worth considering is whether the DE that allows a second Serbian HQ could be brought forward a week.

The next turn when the South Serb Infantry Corps gets into Cetinje means that the German attack will fail with heavy casualties.

Who knows anything about the Sanjak Corps? They seem to be a huge unit for the Montenegrin army to have.

There should not be a railway between Cetinje and Pec, I believe.

[OldCrowBalthazor]

ORIGINAL: stockwellpete

Further testing this morning, very interesting. I changed the terrain in hex 183,99 from hills to mountains. Supply remained unchanged at 9 because of the railway but the Austro-Hungarian unit was no longer able to move on to the new "high mountain" hex at 184,99 (directly north of Cetinje). So the attack now has to come along the railway line from Ragusa and the A-H unit can attack from the mountain hex 183,98. The Detachment defending Cetinje was attached to the Serbian HQ unit.

Test 1 - Germans took Cetinje in 3 attacks, losses (German losses first) 4-3, 1-3, 3-4
Test 2 - Cetinje held after 4 attacks, losses 3-1, 3-1, 3-2 AH unit 1-1
Test 3 - Cetinje held after 4 attacks, losses 4-2, 1-0, 4-2, AH unit 1-1
Test 4 - Cetinje held after 4 attacks, losses 4-1, 3-2, 1-2, AH unit 1-2
Test 5 - Cetinje held after 4 attacks, losses 2-3, 2-1, 2-2, AH unit 2-3

It seems that if you toughen up the terrain around Cetinje and attach the defending Detachment to the Serbian HQ then there is a reasonable chance of defending Cetinje. The next turn the South Serb Infantry Corp can go into Cetinje to relieve the besieged Detachment. Also worth considering is whether the DE that allows a second Serbian HQ could be brought forward a week.

The next turn when the South Serb Infantry Corps gets into Cetinje means that the German attack will fail with heavy casualties.

Who knows anything about the Sanjak Corps? They seem to be a huge unit for the Montenegrin army to have.

There should not be a railway between Cetinje and Pec, I believe.

This is very interesting. I always thought the approaches to Cetinje were a little too accessible. So, having a high mountain tile on 184/99 seems to approximate Mt. Lovcen, also called 'Mt Doom' by the Montenegrins in WW1.(realistically it would be placed on the coastal hex NW of Cetinje but placing any terrain tile at this scale is an abstraction).

Apparently, Mt Lovcen, which is a huge massif, wasn't taken until Jan 1916 by the Austro-Hungarians. When they did, then Cetinje fell shortly afterward.

Nice test Stockwellpete. I'm going to add this to the Trento/Alta Adige edit and give it a whirl...it seems you found a very good solution that's realistic and reasonable.

[stockwellpete]

ORIGINAL: OldCrowBalthazor

This is very interesting. I always thought the approaches to Cetinje were a little too accessible. So, having a high mountain tile on 184/99 seems to approximate Mt. Lovcen, also called 'Mt Doom' by the Montenegrins in WW1.(realistically it would be placed on the coastal hex NW of Cetinje but placing any terrain tile at this scale is an abstraction).

Apparently, Mt Lovcen, which is a huge massif, wasn't taken until Jan 1916 by the Austro-Hungarians. When they did, then Cetinje fell shortly afterward.

Nice test Stockwellpete. I'm going to add this to the Trento/Alta Adige edit and give it a whirl...it seems you found a very good solution that's realistic and reasonable.

Yes, I think it might work. An early attack on Cetinje is a very reasonable alt-history variation, but it needs to be quite difficult with maybe around a 25% success rate. To be more certain than that of taking it the CP player would have to commit an HQ unit (rated 6 or 7) plus 4x German Infantry Corps. This would inevitably have a detrimental impact on Schlieffen and/or defence of East Prussia. In terms of operating units there and back it would cost approximately 200 MPP's in total plus over 100 MPP's to return the units to full strength. They would also be away from the main fronts for 4 turns (2 turns operating, one turn fighting and one turn reinforcing).

[Chernobyl]

I was gonna say I think pushing forward the montenegro HQ spawn event (it's the decision event and the two HQ spawn events) to the end of the Entente's first turn makes Cetinje much tougher. It's still not impossible to kill though. And it forces the Entente player to take the Montenegran HQ instead of a second Serbian HQ which I know they don't always want in the long term.

I experimented with spawning in the Montenegro HQ after turn 1 and starting that detachment at strength 10 (higher strength than it would possibly get ordinarily since it won't lose any experience). Entrenched and then tried to attack it. With these two bonuses (HQ command and +starting strength so you can entrench) it was not reliable for the Centrals to one turn conquer Montenegro with my normal strikeforce. However there was still a decent chance and the Germans could potentially rail in MORE forces. I don't think it completely blocks a determined attack. I think I could engineer a reliable attack. Haven't proven yet though.

One question is exactly what is our goal? Do we want to make it impossible for the Centrals to take out Montenegro on their second turn, or just risky?

[OldCrowBalthazor]

ORIGINAL: Chernobyl

One question is exactly what is our goal? Do we want to make it impossible for the Centrals to take out Montenegro on their second turn, or just risky?

That's a tough question, but I'm leaning towards hard risky. I did a brief test on the lines of what Stockwellpete proposed. Its a helluva gambit, Chernobyl. The eastern front is already Swiss cheese and there's a risk there already. I think making Cetinje itself just hard enough that a 2nd turn takedown isn't always possible...but a possibility should be there.

With FoG on...(and in a MP its always on), the Entente player may not notice it before its too late...and even if they figure it out quick..the Russians are still deploying into turn 3. The trick is how to make Cetinje hard enough that even a gambit with the German forces (+ an HQ) presented, there's a risk of the Germans floundering into turn 3 or 4 before taking Cetinje.

Its such an interesting and wild gambit that it shouldn't be penalized with a certainty of failure on turn 2, but there should be the possibility of failure on turn 2. Its the method of how to make it so is where we are at I think now. Of course, this is just my opinion.

[mdsmall]

How about randomizing the turn on which the second Serbian HQ spawns, so that neither player will know exactly when it will turn up at the start of the campaign. By revising the DE, it could arrive with an equal chance on turns 1, 2 or 3.

[Chernobyl]

So I tried a "maximum effort" attack against a modded defender. I gave the defender detachment strength=10, max entrenchment and the Montenegrin HQ. I railed in 3 German corps, one German cav, and use 1x Austrian cav and 2x Austrian corps that walk over there. So 7 strong attackers. More than in my original post.

And the results? I wasn't able to make the Central Powers lose*.

*Except when I saved the game after THREE bad rolls in a row. These rolls were so bad that the Entente detachment was still at strength 8 after 3 fights. Well, EVEN WITH THOSE BAD ROLLS I was only able to get the Centrals to lose ONE TIME out of 8, and I think that was because I forgot to upgrade the Austrian HQ leader. So in my opinion, it's possible to "guarantee" a one-turn knockout of Montenegro "no matter what". It takes a contrived example to engineer a fail even with my scenario adding additional bonuses to the Entente defense.

Now all that being said, that "guarantee" attack involves quite a commitment. The attack in France will be weaker, and/or defense in Russia for the first few turns will have some weakness. But in my opinion none of that matters as much as Montenegro dying early.

I hate to say it but Montenegro might really need an alternate capital in Pec.

[Tendraline]

ORIGINAL: Chernobyl

ORIGINAL: Tendraline
On the other hand, I'm confused when you say that the city's "hex bonus" disappears if you surround it on all three hexes.

Try it for yourself. Place a unit on 2 sides of the city and look at your attack predictor. Then surround the city from 3 sides and look at your attack predictor. You IMMEDIATELY get a better attack (no need to wait a turn for supply effects to happen). The defender seems to not be getting any defensive bonus from the city, but ONLY if it's completely surrounded WITH a unit in each surrounding hex. I don't completely understand it but I think there is something built into the game that makes defense weaker if you are cut off?

Again to be clear this is NOT supply. That's an additional effect that happens later to the defender.

I have been busy with schoolwork recently, I'd still like to say sorry for stating a falsehood without proper testing. I first got an idea when someone complained that a Soviet corps in Sevastopol could not be reinforced, and when I searched in the manual I found that "surrounded" units can only be reinforced up to 5. Surrounded seems to mean "every unit on all land sides in the war", the same as this context.

The removal of this bonus is not exclusive to Cetinje, as I made it work on every type of resource hex with the exception of fortresses like Verdun and Sevastopol. In-game, the bonus is labelled DB for defense bonus, which along with entrenchment prevents defender losses. Unfortunately I do not see it mentioned within the manual, but if Bill Runacre or another staff member could tell us if this was intended that would be great.

To the rest of you, sorry for derailing your conversation when I have almost nothing to provide you, but West Prussia might be in for a hell of a time because of this principle. With the AI I was reliably able to capture Thorn on turn one, killed Hindenburg, and then proceeded to cut off the whole region. Although that's for another thread, it's food for thought.

Edit: It is a hell of an investment to rail in four corps AND upgrade an HQ on presumably the first turn, but opening Serbia's flank and taking a significant portion of its income is one hell of a prize. Not sure where you got the cavalry though.

[Chernobyl]

ORIGINAL: Tendraline
upgrade an HQ
Not sure where you got the cavalry though.

I usually upgrade those skill-3 HQ asap anyhow.
And the units I send to Serbia all come from France. Mostly the units that start in the south of that front cause they are farthest away from Belgium. There is something to be said for pushing France with all your units, having extras in Belgium and assaulting Nancy. But I prefer to kill Montenegro. I try to send at least one max skill unit to be the first attacker. I find the full experience point does make a difference in the predicted casualty effect.

Sending 3 german corps and a cavalry really stretches things to the limit, but remember that's just for my experiment where I gave Montenegro more defense than they actually have right now.

[Chernobyl]

An alternative to hastening the deployment of the second HQ would be to give Serbia the ability to command their minor units. Serbia is kind of unique that it doesn't get to do this. The downside that comes to mind is that I don't know what the point of a Montenegrin HQ would be, and players would always choose to make a second Serbian HQ. But this is one option that would give the Serbians the option to buff the defense of Cetinje immediately.

This option can be switched on in the editor.

[Tendraline]

One thing that we have not quite mentioned is the occupational efficiency. When I checked, for Greece, Serbia, and Montenegro this value is 100 percent, while the norm is 80. Thus, when captured, their resources give both more MPPs than usual and remarkable supply bases for further advances, which makes no sense where one of the few uprisings in the war ever occurred. It would certainly tip the risk-and-reward balance if we change this.

As for Jankovic's HQ, the decision could be used into improving the HQ itself, such as giving it bonus experience points or buffing his HQ rating. And if the Serbs decide to take him, he could be initially put too far to command Montenegro initially, giving the CP an edge there. If anyone has any other suggestions feel free to put it down below.

[stockwellpete]

ORIGINAL: Chernobyl]
One question is exactly what is our goal? Do we want to make it impossible for the Centrals to take out Montenegro on their second turn, or just risky?

No, not impossible, but it should be quite a tough proposition to take it in 1914 considering Cetinje did not fall until 1916 in the real war. With the terrain changes that I am proposing a Central Powers player would probably need a 6 or 7 rated German HQ plus 4x German Infantry Corps plus the A-H Infantry Corps that starts at Ragusa. That is quite a big chunk to take out of Schlieffen or the defence of East Prussia, both in terms of operating and reinforcement MPP costs, particularly if the Entente make significant gains in those 4 turns that the "Montenegrin expedition" are away from the major fronts. I think this is a reasonable dilemma for a CP player considering an early assault on Montenegro.

[shri]

Someone already suggested- Why not spawn the MonteNegro HQ and Corps at the end of 1st Entente turn via Decision? This will make the front tougher but deprive choice of Serbia to have a 2nd HQ, which is a fair trade-off.
This coupled with the Monte unit starting entrenched or at full strength should be enough.

The CP player is spending a lot of MPP railing in corps and a HQ and that gambit should have some chance of success.

[stockwellpete]

ORIGINAL: shri

Someone already suggested- Why not spawn the MonteNegro HQ and Corps at the end of 1st Entente turn via Decision? This will make the front tougher but deprive choice of Serbia to have a 2nd HQ, which is a fair trade-off.
This coupled with the Monte unit starting entrenched or at full strength should be enough.

The CP player is spending a lot of MPP railing in corps and a HQ and that gambit should have some chance of success.

Yes, I have suggested the 2nd Serbian HQ unit arrives a week earlier too. I am not actually sure what this Montenegrin HQ and Infantry Corps represent though. Montenegro fielded 40-50,000 troops in WW1, so 2x Detachments are probably enough to represent them. They were tough guerilla fighters first and foremost. I think Jankovic was a Serbian commander and Montenegrin troops fought under Serbian command in WW1, but I would need to check that. I am all for DE's in the game, but I think this Serbian one is not the best, by any means.

[stockwellpete]

Chapter and verse here on the Montenegrin situation in August 1914. There seems to have been a very uneasy relationship between Belgrade and Cetinje . . .

https://encyclopedia.1914-1918-online.n ... montenegro

This bit refers to Jankovic . . .

"Upon his arrival to Montenegro, General Božidar Janković (1849-1920) was appointed Chief of Headquarters of the one third of the Montenegrin army designated to defend Montenegrin territory. Although King Nikola held the supreme command, the entire armed forces of the country were essentially under the command of Serbian officers."