Eliminating Montenegro on turn 2

[mdsmall]

ORIGINAL: BillRunacre

ORIGINAL: mdsmall

Does the 20-30% unit morale swing against allied Majors when "a country" surrenders (as per section 6.30.3 of the rules) apply to Montenegro too? If so, that not only will hasten Serbia's demise but will have a depressing effect on Russian, French and British units morale.

Yes, these are universal settings applying to everyone on the relevant side.

In my current game, my CP opponent used the morale swing against the Entente caused by Montenegro's surrender to attack on the Western Front in September 1914, even though he was pursuing an all East strategy. It worked - it gave him the edge he needed to kill a couple of entrenched French corps with minor losses on his side.

Surely, this makes no sense. I highly doubt that the average soldier in either the German or French armies had even heard of Montenegro, much less would have been inspired or worried or its by its surrender. The impact on Serbian morale is a different matter (and the impact of Serbia's surrender as a Major Power on the rest of the Entente is a different matter).

Is there a fix for this, so that Montenegro's surrender only impacts the morale of Serbian units? If that's not a fix that can be made for just for Montenegro perhaps a future patch could consider making the morale swing caused by a minor's surrender only apply to its controlling major and the major that conquered it.

Or maybe it is time to just decide that Montenegro as a separate minor is too big a strategic liability for the entire Entente and - at least in military terms - it should be incorporated into Serbia on the declaration of war. A new DE could be written to award a significant NM loss for Serbia if Cetinje is captured. That would still make it an important target for the Central Powers as part of their campaign against Serbia. But at least it would not have reverberations felt as far away as the Western Front.

[OldCrowBalthazor]

Seeing that Cetinje is certain to fall means that when the Entente sees the Germans lined up in Dalmatia...its time to turtle and last as long as possible for the Russians sake. With no where to run outside of Serbia..the only other alternative with the turtle defense is to wardec Albania to have a place to run...but that's probably not viable.

The other is a hail mary and try to pull the Bulgarian Gambit with the Serbs, but because of positioning and the fact that the Bulgar detachment is now at 3 ground cover...that isn't viable either. And anyway..I like the fact that Sofia has slightly better defences...and it should be even stronger.

In my opinion...the Entente player shouldn't have to come up with the hair brained schemes like I just illustrated. I also like the Montenegrin Gambit....but Cetinje should be significantly harder to crack...at least a few more turns anyway. Historically AH naval blockaded and repeatedly hammered on this mountainous and inaccessible town and its fjord like harbor...even if a German army group arrived...I think it would of taken longer than 2 to 4 weeks like happens in our tested matches.

The other thing is the Albanian neutrality deal. If the Serbs were that desperate to get to the sea...wouldn't you think they would just cut trail through that semi-lawless land?

Maybe another solution is that if Montenegro surrenders before Albania joins the Entente...that an event fires that makes Albania join..or a event decision that the Entente (thinking France) pays to accelerate that or not.

One thing that I like about The Montenegrin Gambit, though, is that it makes a Russia First strategy viable again.
However...in my opinion...it should be harder to do.

[shri]

a few proposals (some are already being considered)-

1. Entente can send alternative convoy via albania or greece (greece better) but with reduced efficiency.
2. Albania should join on turn 2 of the game if more than 10 corps units around Cetinje and Belgrade. (which means Germans in, Albania in), the Albanians joining should make Bulgars tilt towards Germany and Greece to go neutral (Greece immediately joining will make a mess, also Greece was divided between the pro German King and anti German Prime minister)
3. For only MP games, instead of getting free artillery for Russia and UK in Caucasus, Egypt and Mesopotamia, an extra convoy from South America for say 25/30 MPP per turn for the UK can be given (UK can choose to pass on some of the extra to Russia via Convoy) and Entente should be forced to build and transport these artillery, HQ and corps.
Right now, UK gets about 1600-2000 MPP free due to auto spawn on various levels (adding transport costs) and Russia about 300-360.

[OldCrowBalthazor]

New patch changes everything for the better! [&o]

The detachment in Cetinje, Montenegro is now entrenched...this will help. However, if the CP wants to pull a Montenegrin Gambit, that town will still fall. None the less, that's ok if the following would occur in a future patch:

I think Albania should have an event or dec event to fire if Cetinje falls...so like if a turn 2 surrender happens for Montenegro...the Entente at least might have an option to intervene through Albania...that is at least unless a Schlieffen is happening...and then its on the Russians to punish Austria-Hungary. [:D]

This is based on Bavre and my Montenegrin Gambit test featured in the War Room. There are other ideas that could help with Montenegro in a future patch. I like the Montenegro Gambit...but I humbly believe that with the terrain and inaccessibility of Kotor Bay, Mt Lovcen and Cetinje itself...that Montenegro should be tougher to swallow up. They held out to 1916....and collapsed about the same time as Serbia fell apart.

cheers about the new changes!

[hottegetthoff]

I suggest a change for the strategy. Honestly, you dont need to attack montenegro right away, and the german units may be used well elsewhere in those beginning turns, serbia wont be able to go on a offensive against austrians for some time.

Austrians should focus on attacking Belgade and Valjevo, you attack Cetinje similarly (and similar effect) with German units in 1915 when Albania joins the war and kill two birds with one stone. This offers several advantages:

1-immediately, you get additional route of attack through albania, outflanking serbia even more and stretching them thinner

2-austria can rest for sometime after initial objectives and focus on Russia (ties in better with east first strateggies and can save them some money)

3-plunder and income will mater more in long run, along with ability to plan spending better as mentioned above if you capture albania also (its not much but always something, its important to divide the spoils in the Balkans between the 3 big players for most optimal performance)
4-Additional route of attacking eventually into Greece later, this can be a disadvantage if Entente invests in Greece, but i feel like its easier for CP to muster units here than Entente in the end.

5-Albania gives you an additional harbour, and when Greece joins you can take Corfu very early and it gives you a lot of uses in your struggle in mediterranean.

Of course, Cetinje may be defended much harder, but with if you time it right, coordinate, Serbs have to give in either in Montenegro or in Serbia proper.

[Tendraline]

I think you are missing the point of the original strategy, which is to eliminate Montenegro before it can spawn enough forces to cover Serbia's flank. On the first and second turns there are only two detachments to oppose you, but then on the third there is suddenly a corps, which greatly bolsters the defense of this region.

Secondly, any early attack on Montenegro is a mainly German affair, as they have troops to spare from the west (especially if they are not doing Schlieffen). Thus, a player would often do both, as OldCrowBalthazor demonstrated at the top of this page.

As for income, by keeping Albania out of the war, the MPPs it provides to Russia never arrives. And this is not insignificant in the beginning stages of the game, some 11 MPPs. Yes, the Central Powers suffer worse over time, but it is less of a problem than imagined.

[hottegetthoff]

Id say that german corps with Mackensen can still break through, you can use whichever tools you want honestly. But going for Montenegro later has its benefits aswell, i just wanted to point that out. My only universal recommendation is to let A-H get the serbian plunder and income, while Germans make most of the offensive.

Basically its still harder to defend cetinje where they can get boxed in and cut off, than the Serbia proper with room for counter attacks.

[Chernobyl]

Don't mean to be a Negative Nancy but I just did a quick hotseat test in the new 1.04 patch and Cetinje is still extremely easy to take. I don't think the entrenchment does very much. Montenegro needs its HQ out improving their defense.

I think also my prior testing quite possibly didn't take into account this "surrender unit bonus" which I wasn't aware of. In my latest test I made sure to conquer Luxembourg (previous testing I hadn't bothered to do so) and I think this improved my unit readiness. Not sure. But in any case the German corps that I railed next to Cetinje was predicted to do 4 damage to the full strength fully entrenched detachment. This is higher than I remember from previous testing so that's why I assume this "surrender bonus" is in play (still not clear on exactly how it works). Whatever the cause, there's no way for Montenegro to win if the attacks against their capital are so strong.

Would still recommend spawning the Montenegro HQ before the attack can take place, and giving Montenegro an alternate capital in Pec.

[Bavre]

ORIGINAL: Chernobyl

Don't mean to be a Negative Nancy but I just did a quick hotseat test in the new 1.04 patch and Cetinje is still extremely easy to take. I don't think the entrenchment does very much. Montenegro needs its HQ out improving their defense.

I think also my prior testing quite possibly didn't take into account this "surrender unit bonus" which I wasn't aware of. In my latest test I made sure to conquer Luxembourg (previous testing I hadn't bothered to do so) and I think this improved my unit readiness. Not sure. But in any case the German corps that I railed next to Cetinje was predicted to do 4 damage to the full strength fully entrenched detachment. This is higher than I remember from previous testing so that's why I assume this "surrender bonus" is in play (still not clear on exactly how it works). Whatever the cause, there's no way for Montenegro to win if the attacks against their capital are so strong.

Would still recommend spawning the Montenegro HQ before the attack can take place, and giving Montenegro an alternate capital in Pec.

Oh yes! This temporary "surrender unit bonus" is absolutely nuts, especially once you are able to halfway reliably gauge your units abilities under its effects in advance and are prepared to reap its benefits. You can literally waltz up to a fortress town and just take it with minor losses. Now that I know its power I would gladly throw 6 corps + Hindenburg at Montenegro if neccessary without even batting an eye, just for that alone. And for Serbia the fall of Montenegro is double doom: open flank and CP units on steroids.

[Chernobyl]

Elaborating on my above post for 1.04, railing in the str 10 Serbian corps is slightly stronger defense than repairing the Montenegro detachment. However, it's not that much stronger, even with the free trenches due to the patch.

My german corps which attacks first is predicting 3 damage to the enemy Serbian corps. This is too much. The Serbian corps will die in one turn to my strikeforce. If the predictor was saying only 2 damage, then maybe it would have a chance with good rolls.

On a side note I think that surrender bonus is what makes turn 2 assaults on Nancy or Lodz so effective. Luxembourg surrenders and you get to do something cool with attacks next turn.

[Bavre]

Hmm, I did not even think of that. Maybe the reason why my stats at the beginning of turn 3 in my match with OldCrow were so off the charts was an (almost) DOUBLE bonus: turn 1 Luxembourg + turn 2 Montenegro?

[OldCrowBalthazor]

ORIGINAL: Chernobyl

Elaborating on my above post for 1.04, railing in the str 10 Serbian corps is slightly stronger defense than repairing the Montenegro detachment. However, it's not that much stronger, even with the free trenches due to the patch.

My german corps which attacks first is predicting 3 damage to the enemy Serbian corps. This is too much. The Serbian corps will die in one turn to my strikeforce. If the predictor was saying only 2 damage, then maybe it would have a chance with good rolls.

On a side note I think that surrender bonus is what makes turn 2 assaults on Nancy or Lodz so effective. Luxembourg surrenders and you get to do something cool with attacks next turn.

Sigh..I just tried a test with the new patch regarding Cetinje. I don't want to seem ungrateful..for the patch overall is awesome...but it might take something as radical as making Cetinje a fortress...coupled with a alternative capital at Pec.

The whole hex where Cetinje is placed was a virtual fortress anyway..for hundreds of years this area kept Montenegro either semi-independent or out right independent because of the extreme nature of the terrain here. There's the deep fjord-like Kotor Bay, Mt Lovcen, and other steep rugged defiles and mountains all around covered with medieval to early 20th century hardpoints, hill forts and the like...with artillery.

Also..this would balance Trento being a fort..which was necessary to keep that area from being rolled first in the older version. If there was a fortress here, the Entente has a detachment that will be at a level of 3 entrenchment..and that may give the Entente time to get either reinforce the detachment...or move another unit in..I don't know...it needs testing for sure.

Like I said before, I like The Montenegro Gambit...but the rewards are so great for the CP in the early game and equally devastating to the Entente. Its going to become a normal play...and not a risky gambit.

At the very least..this gambit should require artillery..so by 1915 the CP can contemplate it...while mean time still savaging Serbia. Montenegro went down about the same time as Serbia in 1916..and should not be so prone to be roll over in 2 turns..with all the snowball effects it has to the Entente.

my humble opinion anyway...and I am going to test this idea.

Image is of the top of Mt Lovcen, outside of Cetinje and Kotor Bay. The Austro-Hungarians had to storm this mountain covered with entrenchments and forts in 1916.

[Chernobyl]

ORIGINAL: OldCrowBalthazor
making Cetinje a fortress

Perhaps:
-Pec is alternate capital
-Monts start with their HQ in Pec
-Supply route diverts to Tirana in case Cetinje is lost (and Albania has joined)

Because I'm not quite sure it's worth it for me to rail so many units down there if all I do is take their city and kill a detachment. In fact it probably isn't worth it!

Side note:
One of the things I really dislike about the turn 2 Montenegro snipe is that Albania never joins. It actually makes Serbians defending their last capital easier when the Centrals can't wheel through Albania. If 3+ corps (or 4+ corps if you go all in on this "strategy") abandon Nish and everything else north of the Uskub mountain area, it can take quite a while to dislodge them, especially if the weather is bad. Between Serbian resistance collapsing so fast and the front narrowing on mountainous terrain, the Serbian front quickly becomes a very boring and tedious mountain slog that heavily relies on RNG and is more about 'how many turns can Serbia delay the inevitable' than 'can Serbia fight and survive?' Eventually the Austrians get good RNG on an attack and Serbia doesn't have enough MPP to repair their unit fully, and it retreats, but wait then there's another mountain hex with a str 10 Serbian corps! This defense is difficult to do perfectly, and sometimes you get unlucky, but it can seriously delay Serbian surrender / Bulgarian entry.

[OldCrowBalthazor]

ORIGINAL: Chernobyl

ORIGINAL: OldCrowBalthazor
making Cetinje a fortress

Perhaps:
-Pec is alternate capital
-Monts start with their HQ in Pec
-Supply route diverts to Tirana in case Cetinje is lost (and Albania has joined)

Because I'm not quite sure it's worth it for me to rail so many units down there if all I do is take their city and kill a detachment. In fact it probably isn't worth it!

Side note:
One of the things I really dislike about the turn 2 Montenegro snipe is that Albania never joins. It actually makes Serbians defending their last capital easier when the Centrals can't wheel through Albania. If 3+ corps (or 4+ corps if you go all in on this "strategy") abandon Nish and everything else north of the Uskub mountain area, it can take quite a while to dislodge them, especially if the weather is bad. Between Serbian resistance collapsing so fast and the front narrowing on mountainous terrain, the Serbian front quickly becomes a very boring and tedious mountain slog that heavily relies on RNG and is more about 'how many turns can Serbia delay the inevitable' than 'can Serbia fight and survive?' Eventually the Austrians get good RNG on an attack and Serbia doesn't have enough MPP to repair their unit fully, and it retreats, but wait then there's another mountain hex with a str 10 Serbian corps! This defense is difficult to do perfectly, and sometimes you get unlucky, but it can seriously delay Serbian surrender / Bulgarian entry.

I hear you...though I wish the gambit could be made to be 'worth it' IN 1915. I like your ideas btw...maybe that and a fortress or not a fortress, idk. I am going to test all this on the side though...want to do some MP's with the new patch regards [:)]

[shri]

Why not go for the alternative that the Montenegro corps becomes Serbian (as it did have a Serb commander and some Serb troops)? This in addition to Pec alternative capital.

This will nullify the gambit effectiveness as it only kills a lousy detachment and stops flow of MPP by convoy but doesn't trigger immediate disaster.

Ideally you want the gambit to have some effectiveness but not game breaking, it costs a lot of MPP to rail in and out.

[OldCrowBalthazor]

ORIGINAL: Chernobyl

Perhaps:
-Pec is alternate capital
-Monts start with their HQ in Pec
-Supply route diverts to Tirana in case Cetinje is lost (and Albania has joined)

After thinking about this more and doing one more test...the Fortress idea was wrong. I see what your getting at here.

Pec was a bigger town anyway...and more inaccessible. The Sanjak Corp will show...and the Serb Corp in Uskub can get in the area if needed if not elsewhere.

If the CP pulls the M-Gambit and goes all in on Russia, the French can get into Albania as an option. If the CP goes France first...then the Russians could consider buying the Albanian corp and detachments.

I would suggest that if Tirana falls...the convoy gets reset again through Salonika, Greece.

I am not quite knowledgable enough yet to set up an alternative capital at Pec or do the convoy work to test this out. I guess I'll ask on the modding forum.

I think this needs to be seriously added as an emergency patch for MP's because after my test with Bavre I see nothing but unbridled unrecoverable disaster for the Entente Player...which I prefer to play on the whole.

[stockwellpete]

ORIGINAL: shri

Why not go for the alternative that the Montenegro corps becomes Serbian (as it did have a Serb commander and some Serb troops)? This in addition to Pec alternative capital.

This will nullify the gambit effectiveness as it only kills a lousy detachment and stops flow of MPP by convoy but doesn't trigger immediate disaster.

Ideally you want the gambit to have some effectiveness but not game breaking, it costs a lot of MPP to rail in and out.

Yes, this is what I would prefer, I think. Make the Sanjak Corps a Serbian unit (in reality it was around 50% Serbian anyway) and make Jankovic always a Serbian general (he was).

[Bavre]

ORIGINAL: OldCrowBalthazor
Like I said before, I like The Montenegro Gambit...but the rewards are so great for the CP in the early game and equally devastating to the Entente. Its going to become a normal play...and not a risky gambit.

Absolutely seconded!
Right now it's no gambit, it's the Montenegro "I win button". The overall strategy doesn't even matter. Being able to order Chaptermaster Hindenburg and the Kaisers Spacemarines into the fray by turn 3 will give you an immense advantage that will only get worse through snowballing.
And then there's the possibility to repeat it twice over easily, thanks to the headway the Montenegro effect gives.

I'm in fact already brainstorming ideas for mods/houserules with my next opponent as we speak.

Btw, just was toying with another idea: time the simultanious death of Greece and Albania with an all out invasion of Italy. Since after the M-gambit and Serbias death you have a great deal of control over the point of time Greece and Albania kick the bucket and you can simply anticipate Italys entry via its percentage, it should be doable.
Considering how weak Italy initially is, you're probably in Rome by the time your boost wears off.

[hottegetthoff]

About countering this move: if Serbs are stubborn, i think that Entente can invade albania instead, using port from malta, which requires some planning and im not sure if it would get on time.

[Bavre]

ORIGINAL: hottegetthoff

About countering this move: if Serbs are stubborn, i think that Entente can invade albania instead, using port from malta, which requires some planning and im not sure if it would get on time.

Two problems here:
With M-gambit Serbia dies REALLY fast, you can see a demonstration here:
https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.a ... =&#4969830

And at least early game Albania is protected against a declaration of war by scripts that cause huge diplomatic fallout. Well at least that is for a CP declaration of war, but I assume it's the same for Entente.