A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

[Shellshock]

This is, I suspect, why Curtis Lemay refuses to provide detail. Detail means a) having to make some effort and to do some research and, more importantly, b) having to provide evidence for any OOB suggested in a “what if” AND what that amendment to an historical OOB would have done elsewhere in real life.

So... he claims he's "simmed' it out, but can't offer any specifics on what named ships--brigades--divisions go where and when? I suppose that makes it easier for him to shuffle the deck every time someone spots a flaw in his "plan".

[Aurelian]

Even if we could accept that Yamamoto would think of this, even if we accept that priority would be given in preference to carriers and battleships, when would he have actually had to have had this brain wave? How long would each conversion take?

I think taking the 3 turrets and 2 torpedo bays out could be done in a week. The rest of the work doesn't require even dock space. So...12 weeks for 12 destroyers. All using just one port berth anywhere in the entire Japanese empire.

Please tell me "the rest of the work" does not then involve the destroyer crews trying their hand at slapping on some deckhouses which would be expected to accommodate up to 200 soldiers for their journey through the North Pacific on a low freeboard destroyer. If you want to start a proper shooting war between the IJN and the IJA, that would be one way to kick it off.

https://destroyerhistory.org/flushdeck/green_dragons/ How the US did it.

On 28 November 1938, the Navy’s oldest flush-deck destroyer, USS Manley, underwent the first of several exercises and modifications in quick succession until, by 7 February 1939, her forward two boilers and two stacks were replaced by a berthing compartment for 120 Marines and her four triple torpedo tubes mounts were replaced by davits to handle the new Higgins boats. One waist gun was deleted, the other moved to her centerline. Removing the boilers cut her speed to 23kts.

[Curtis Lemay]

This site:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/oil-war- ... 0years.%22

Says the Japanese had a two year supply of oil in reserve in July 1941. By December that would be down to 1 year and 7 months. So...any claim that the Japanese were about to run out of oil and any delay in getting the DEI oil would be a disaster are wrong. They had the time to be flexible with the start date. They had the time to be flexible with Luzon.

Furthermore, it says this:

"We had about 4 1/2 million barrels of oil out there and all of it was vulnerable to .50-cal. bullets," Adm. Chester Nimitz, commander in chief of the Pacific Fleet, later said. "Had the Japanese destroyed the oil, it would have prolonged the war another two years."

So...two year delay, not one year. This is a really high reward option!

[Curtis Lemay]

Again, delaying Luzon does nothing to the rest of the expansion. You can keep saying the same thing over and over again, but it doesn't make any difference.

It does. That is not an opinion - it is a fact. The PI was needed as a stepping stone to the NEI. The US units on the PI needed to be subjugated or they would be used to interfere with the Japanese attempts to conquer the NEI. Why can’t you understand such a simple concept?

The air and naval elements needed to be supressed. The ground units didn't. They don't have to invade to supress the air and naval. Air raids will suffice.

[Curtis Lemay]

The Kido Butai is maintaining radio silence, the radios on the A6M2 did not work well if at all. No coordination possible.

Not after the raid begins. And then the "Tora Tora Tora" signal has been sent. That's all the bombers have to hear to know they can now attack.

[Curtis Lemay]

warspite1

No again. A lot of extra oil in exchange for still no certain date on which Japan go to war and obtain the oil they need to stop the outflow of their dwindling reserves. It sounds like a good deal to you because you are playing a war game and you don't have an industrialised country to run; a country that is fast running out of oil.....

Again, Luzon is postponed - along with the oil that that operation would have required.

warspite1

Which is a strange answer given you haven’t in any way addressed the point. You seem to believe (numbers used made up to make the point) that if one cancels a mission that would have used 100 tons, you can then launch an operation that uses 200 tons and the extra 100 tons don’t count. It’s weird logic......

The Luzon operation was huge. It's supply requirements (and therefore sea capacity requirements - and the oil that consumes) would far exceed the PI invasion needs.

[Curtis Lemay]

This plan also conveniently ignores that the fact that the Japanese were operating on a shoestring due to their manpower commitments in China, and had to do double-duty with some of their divisions. The 48th Division slated to invade Luzon was scheduled to turn over garrison duties to the 65th Mixed Brigade in January and then proceed south to invade Java in March 1942. Kind of a difficult schedule to meet when you've been sent 4,000 miles across the Pacific to Hawaii instead.

The Luzon invasion was a Corps-sized unit, with two divisions and a brigade. I'm only taking two battalions for Maui and maybe four for Midway. About a brigade. That leaves two divisions left over for repurposing. The 48th Division can get to Sumatra that much sooner.

[Curtis Lemay]

Even if we could accept that Yamamoto would think of this, even if we accept that priority would be given in preference to carriers and battleships, when would he have actually had to have had this brain wave? How long would each conversion take?

I think taking the 3 turrets and 2 torpedo bays out could be done in a week. The rest of the work doesn't require even dock space. So...12 weeks for 12 destroyers. All using just one port berth anywhere in the entire Japanese empire.

Please tell me "the rest of the work" does not then involve the destroyer crews trying their hand at slapping on some deckhouses which would be expected to accommodate up to 200 soldiers for their journey through the North Pacific on a low freeboard destroyer. If you want to start a proper shooting war between the IJN and the IJA, that would be one way to kick it off.

A naval architect only requires an office building. Once designed, the crew and port personnel can follow the blueprints.

[Curtis Lemay]

So, you're stuck with SNLF. There is just no way they will stand against the two divisions on Oahu. Especially given Japanese logistical realities. Even the vaunted Tokyo Express failed in its mission. http://www.combinedfleet.com/Dai1Yusokan.htm

The two divisions on Oahu can't walk across water to get to Maui. No ships will dare stay in Pearl with the Bettys in Maui. The US and Japanese at the time of Pearl were very different from the US and Japanese at the time of Guadalcanal.

[warspite1]

This site:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/oil-war- ... 0years.%22

Says the Japanese had a two year supply of oil in reserve in July 1941. By December that would be down to 1 year and 7 months. So...any claim that the Japanese were about to run out of oil and any delay in getting the DEI oil would be a disaster are wrong. They had the time to be flexible with the start date.

warspite1

One year and seven months.... in peacetime.

You continue to make plans and decide what people would do in real life with the mindset of someone totally detached as to outcome, and playing with cardboard counters or electronic pixels. Nineteen months? (although much less once the shooting starts).

Yeah bags of time - especially with the Code of Bushido available to operate factories, ships, aircraft and vehicles.....

[warspite1]

Again, delaying Luzon does nothing to the rest of the expansion. You can keep saying the same thing over and over again, but it doesn't make any difference.

It does. That is not an opinion - it is a fact. The PI was needed as a stepping stone to the NEI. The US units on the PI needed to be subjugated or they would be used to interfere with the Japanese attempts to conquer the NEI. Why can’t you understand such a simple concept?

The air and naval elements needed to be supressed. The ground units didn't. They don't have to invade to supress the air and naval. Air raids will suffice.

warspite1

Well tell us which units (and aircraft types) are going to be sent east and which units (and aircraft types) are going to be left behind to try and suppress the naval and air units of the PI.

Then, tell us how the NEI invasion plans are amended to allow for the fact that the PI is enemy held.

[warspite1]

Again, Luzon is postponed - along with the oil that that operation would have required.

warspite1

Which is a strange answer given you haven’t in any way addressed the point. You seem to believe (numbers used made up to make the point) that if one cancels a mission that would have used 100 tons, you can then launch an operation that uses 200 tons and the extra 100 tons don’t count. It’s weird logic......

The Luzon operation was huge. It's supply requirements (and therefore sea capacity requirements - and the oil that consumes) would far exceed the PI invasion needs.

warspite1

You are giving no thought to what you say. Look at the distances involved, look at the number of ships and aircraft that you’ve added to the original Pearl operation. Look at the additional operations you’ve added to try and make your plan work....and you still have the PI to conquer. You’ve saved NOTHING - you’ve increased oil consumption massively AND you’ve almost certainly delayed conquest of the NEI.

No one is going to sign up for this. Not even after swallowing a Code of Bushido pill.

[Buckrock]

Even if we could accept that Yamamoto would think of this, even if we accept that priority would be given in preference to carriers and battleships, when would he have actually had to have had this brain wave? How long would each conversion take?

Please tell me "the rest of the work" does not then involve the destroyer crews trying their hand at slapping on some deckhouses which would be expected to accommodate up to 200 soldiers for their journey through the North Pacific on a low freeboard destroyer. If you want to start a proper shooting war between the IJN and the IJA, that would be one way to kick it off.

A naval architect only requires an office building. Once designed, the crew and port personnel can follow the blueprints.

Unfortunately Yamamoto's authority is only over the Combined Fleet, not the entire navy organization. Both the ports and naval bases fall under different government and naval bureaucracies that are outside his direct control. So at this point he would now be putting in his request for the plans, materials, a workforce and the ship berths necessary to carry out the conversion work on the 12 destroyers. And the reply from relevant base administration would be that they will get back to him after the Navy General Staff have reviewed the request as well as also conducted a review into his recent decision that has left 12 destroyers currently without armament and a dock somewhere with 24 torpedo mounts and 36 naval guns piled up next to a crane.

[Aurelian]

This site:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/oil-war- ... 0years.%22

Says the Japanese had a two year supply of oil in reserve in July 1941. By December that would be down to 1 year and 7 months. So...any claim that the Japanese were about to run out of oil and any delay in getting the DEI oil would be a disaster are wrong. They had the time to be flexible with the start date.

warspite1

One year and seven months.... in peacetime.

You continue to make plans and decide what people would do in real life with the mindset of someone totally detached as to outcome, and playing with cardboard counters or electronic pixels. Nineteen months? (although much less once the shooting starts).

Yeah bags of time - especially with the Code of Bushido available to operate factories, ships, aircraft and vehicles.....

Peacetime oil consumption. So the 90%+ of the fleet at sea before the shooting started uses the same amount of oil as the same 90%+ sitting in port.

The Midway operation consumed over 600,000 tons of oil. And all they got out of it was a couple of islands they couldn't hold, or even do anything with.

[Aurelian]

Again, delaying Luzon does nothing to the rest of the expansion. You can keep saying the same thing over and over again, but it doesn't make any difference.

It does. That is not an opinion - it is a fact. The PI was needed as a stepping stone to the NEI. The US units on the PI needed to be subjugated or they would be used to interfere with the Japanese attempts to conquer the NEI. Why can’t you understand such a simple concept?

The air and naval elements needed to be supressed. The ground units didn't. They don't have to invade to supress the air and naval. Air raids will suffice.

warspite1

Well tell us which units (and aircraft types) are going to be sent east and which units (and aircraft types) are going to be left behind to try and suppress the naval and air units of the PI.

Then, tell us how the NEI invasion plans are amended to allow for the fact that the PI is enemy held.

Air raids from what? The land based air that was supposedly heading to land on a pair of airfields on two islands in Hawaii.

[Buckrock]

Again, delaying Luzon does nothing to the rest of the expansion. You can keep saying the same thing over and over again, but it doesn't make any difference.

It does. That is not an opinion - it is a fact. The PI was needed as a stepping stone to the NEI. The US units on the PI needed to be subjugated or they would be used to interfere with the Japanese attempts to conquer the NEI. Why can’t you understand such a simple concept?

The air and naval elements needed to be supressed. The ground units didn't. They don't have to invade to supress the air and naval. Air raids will suffice.

Many pages ago you stated shorter ranged JAAF units would have to cover for the missing JNAF bomber units to keep Luzon suppressed and that to do this the Japanese would need to capture PI territory within range of Luzon. That would obviously still qualify as an invasion. Have you decided on which particular bit of PI territory would be the target of this invasion?

[Buckrock]

Again, Luzon is postponed - along with the oil that that operation would have required.

warspite1

Which is a strange answer given you haven’t in any way addressed the point. You seem to believe (numbers used made up to make the point) that if one cancels a mission that would have used 100 tons, you can then launch an operation that uses 200 tons and the extra 100 tons don’t count. It’s weird logic......

The Luzon operation was huge. It's supply requirements (and therefore sea capacity requirements - and the oil that consumes) would far exceed the PI invasion needs.

Some of the the Luzon invasion fleets were "huge" but that does not mean cancelling them automatically frees up correspondingly huge quantities of oil. The invasions themselves required only a comparatively short duration at sea due to the close proximity of Japanese controlled ports. Most of the ships used would have had to have been based nearby anyway as they were also being used in the Malaya, Borneo, Mindanao and DEI invasions.

Once you detail your own HI plans it may be possible to do a proper comparison regarding oil usage.

[Curtis Lemay]

This site:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/oil-war- ... 0years.%22

Says the Japanese had a two year supply of oil in reserve in July 1941. By December that would be down to 1 year and 7 months. So...any claim that the Japanese were about to run out of oil and any delay in getting the DEI oil would be a disaster are wrong. They had the time to be flexible with the start date.

warspite1

One year and seven months.... in peacetime.

And it remains peacetime until the start date is triggered. (And, of course, it WASN'T peacetime - Japan was at war with China).

Clearly they have a huge stockpile.

[Curtis Lemay]

Again, delaying Luzon does nothing to the rest of the expansion. You can keep saying the same thing over and over again, but it doesn't make any difference.

It does. That is not an opinion - it is a fact. The PI was needed as a stepping stone to the NEI. The US units on the PI needed to be subjugated or they would be used to interfere with the Japanese attempts to conquer the NEI. Why can’t you understand such a simple concept?

The air and naval elements needed to be supressed. The ground units didn't. They don't have to invade to supress the air and naval. Air raids will suffice.

warspite1

Well tell us which units (and aircraft types) are going to be sent east and which units (and aircraft types) are going to be left behind to try and suppress the naval and air units of the PI.

Then, tell us how the NEI invasion plans are amended to allow for the fact that the PI is enemy held.

I'll refer to this site:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippin ... 80%931942)

It says the Japanese had 541 aircraft targetted at the PI. Including 156 Bettys and Nells. And 107 Zeros. I'm taking about 32 Zeros and 48 Bettys. That leaves 461 behind, including 75 Zeros and 108 Bettys and Nells. So...85% of the historical strength. Maybe it takes a little longer to neutralize Luzon's air. But not much longer.

The attached map shows that the southern islands were invaded from Palau, not Luzon. That makes Luzon irrelevant to the further operations.

[Curtis Lemay]

Please tell me "the rest of the work" does not then involve the destroyer crews trying their hand at slapping on some deckhouses which would be expected to accommodate up to 200 soldiers for their journey through the North Pacific on a low freeboard destroyer. If you want to start a proper shooting war between the IJN and the IJA, that would be one way to kick it off.

A naval architect only requires an office building. Once designed, the crew and port personnel can follow the blueprints.

Unfortunately Yamamoto's authority is only over the Combined Fleet, not the entire navy organization. Both the ports and naval bases fall under different government and naval bureaucracies that are outside his direct control. So at this point he would now be putting in his request for the plans, materials, a workforce and the ship berths necessary to carry out the conversion work on the 12 destroyers. And the reply from relevant base administration would be that they will get back to him after the Navy General Staff have reviewed the request as well as also conducted a review into his recent decision that has left 12 destroyers currently without armament and a dock somewhere with 24 torpedo mounts and 36 naval guns piled up next to a crane.

What nonsense! Yamamoto, commander of the Combined Fleet, has no port control of any kind?! He can't park a ship anywhere?! And, apparently, throughout the Japanese empire there's not a single berthing available anywhere for months on end! You're just making this up as you go along.