A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

[Curtis Lemay]

Couldn't US fight back somehow because of the loss of a few islands? .

Parts of the 7th and 19th Bombardment Groups armed with B-17Es were in California awaiting shipment to the Philippines in December 1941. One possible alternative for the US would be to stage them into Bellows Field from the mainland one evening. Turn them around for a night attack on this hastily constituted Japanese air base on Maui packed with several enemy air groups still sorting themselves out. An airfield with likely no tarmacs for dispersal, no revetments for protection, probably minimal AA defenses and no radar for early warning. Saburo Sakai (Japan's greatest surviving ace) stated that even with the Zero’s 20mm cannon, the big American bombers were very difficult to bring down even in the daytime. Even a worse prospect of doing that at night. And it's since it's a former US field those bombers know exactly where it is.

It's a hypothetical, but I'd wager on the Flying Fortresses.

But they have to be based on Oahu. Thus can be bombed. Its a two way street. Again, the Japanese can fly in replacement fighters. The US can't.

[Curtis Lemay]

One of the limited factors about Zeros vs. heavy bombers were limited amount of 20mm ammunition carried (60 rounds per cannon). After that, there was only 7.7mm machine guns left. Some later models had 100 rounds of 20mm per gun.

One of the more successful German planes in pure anti-bomber work was FW-190A-8, with 2 MG 131 with 475 rounds per gun, and four MG 151 20 mm, two with 140 rounds per gun and two with 250 rounds per gun.

The Germans couldn't raid the B-17s at their bases in England. The Japs can raid the bases on Oahu. Drop a bomb on a B-17 and its done for.

[Curtis Lemay]

It's occurred to me that we're making a logical mistake:

The Luzon invasion had great stockpiles of supplies and fuel pre-positioned on Taiwan. This shortened their supply lines.

But that is an illusion. In fact every bean, bullet, and gallon had to come from Japan. The cost of prepositioning it has to be dunned to the Luzon operation. If it hadn't been prepositioned, Japan would be that much richer in the fuel used to get it there.

Tokyo to Manila is 1867 miles.
Compare this to Tokyo to Midway = 2548 miles (36.5% further)
Tokyo to Maui = 3960 miles (112.1% further)

Considering that the force directed at Midway and Maui is much smaller than what was directed at Luzon - and the battle duration will be much shorter as well - its doubtful that the Midway and Maui operations will consume any more fuel than the Luzon operation did.

[Curtis Lemay]

Except that the Japanese don't have Midway, the attacking force was repulsed.

Postponement of Luzon provides much more force for the assault. It's going to succeed eventually.

US fighters could fly to Oahu from Hilo.

They have to get to Hilo first. And they have to do so by ship. All the Hawaiian Islands - and Johnson Island, too - are under the umbrella of Japanese spotting and torpedo attack. Will they risk their one remaining carrier? Can cargo ships run such a gauntlet?

[RangerJoe]

Except that the Japanese don't have Midway, the attacking force was repulsed.

Postponement of Luzon provides much more force for the assault. It's going to succeed eventually.

US fighters could fly to Oahu from Hilo.

They have to get to Hilo first. And they have to do so by ship. All the Hawaiian Islands - and Johnson Island, too - are under the umbrella of Japanese spotting and torpedo attack. Will they risk their one remaining carrier? Can cargo ships run such a gauntlet?

You write that the Midway invasion will succeed eventually but you need it immediately for your plan. So when will it be attacked and with what?

One remaining carrier? The US still would have quite a few left.

[warspite1]

Radios don't help the Bettys when over PI and the airfield on Maui is still in US hands. Please keep up.

?? They hear the Tora! Tora! Tora! signal - then they know they are cleared to attack. You keep up!

warspite1

A truly predictable response. Instead of your one liner responses that are designed to deflect from the fact this 'plan' is total fantasy, try providing the detail for this 'plan' that you've allegedly "wargamed successfully everytime you've tried it".... (this despite the fact you didn't realise destroyers as troop carriers wouldn't work, Midway needs to be taken, you couldn't transfer Zeros from Japanese held islands, you didn't have enough transports for more than one island and you've consistently had to change your mind about how the KB need to be used compared to historically).....

You know exactly what I am talking about with the Bettys.

Give us the detail.

1. When do the destroyers head for Maui?
2. Where do they halt pending the final run-in to the island? How far from Maui?
3. What time does the run-in to Maui start?
4. What time do the Betty's take-off from the Marshalls?
5. What time are the Betty's due to arrive off the HI and where do they hold such that they don't alert the defenders on HI?
6. What time do the destroyers reach Maui?
7. Where do the troops land?
8. How long does it take to unload the two battalions plus their transport?
9. How far is the airfield, that can handle Bettys, from the invasion point? This is critical if you don’t want to throw away the Bettys and the Zeros you are denuding the carriers of.
10. Where are the US troops on the island?
11. What coastal defences are available to the defenders?
12. What time do the surviving Bettys run out of fuel and start crashing into the sea/land if the airfield isn't taken?
13. When in the day do the destroyers laden with fuel, spare parts, engines, ammunition, bombs/torpedoes and ground crew leave the KB and head for Maui? Obviously until the airfield is taken you are getting no Japanese aircraft on Maui (apart from those that have crashed out of fuel) and even if the airfield is captured intact, the Japanese aircraft are empty sitting ducks until they can be serviced and re-supplied.
14. Have you decided what you are doing with the KB yet? You have the benefit of hindsight as you know the Wake invasion will initially be a disaster and you know six of the KB (inc two carriers) will be required for that.
15. What about Midway? What ships, have you earmarked for that operation and in particular, which carriers will be needed to provide air cover?
16. Following Pearl, where were the KB used next? Have you allowed for losses over Midway and the aircraft you’ve sent to Maui?

Remember. The real life Japanese knew the desperate need for secrecy and surprise. Your 'plan' simply drives a coach and horses through this by flying Bettys (that are somehow timed to coincide with the carrier attack) to HI (and they can't be early because this will alert the defenders before the carrier planes - and they can't be late because they will be facing an alert defender) and sailing two destroyer flotillas around the HI.

So please stop stalling and tell us how this 'plan', that needs perfect timing and co-ordination, works in order to ensure that the Japanese don't lose 40+ precious Bettys and their even more precious aircrew, two destroyer flotillas and two battalions of troops before the war has properly started. Oh and also that ensures the carrier attack is not fatally compromised by one or more of these elements being detected.

[warspite1]

So many ground forces have been freed up via postponing Luzon that the invasion force will be overwhelming.

warspite1

I know you think all Japanese are supermen with the power of Bushido - but even you know they can't walk on water right? How do these troops get there?

Same why they got to Luzon, historically. Whatever transport landed them on Luzon can take them to Midway.

warspite1

Nope. Not that simple and you know it. You are taking away units that are required later - even if you cancel Luzon. For the billionth time, the war wasn't fought in silos and two ships can't be in two different places at once. You amend one operation by removing assets, you have to look at the knock-on effect.

[warspite1]

You must be really bad at math.

600,000 tons would only be 8% of 50,000,000 barrels.

warspite1

No, Maths is okay. What exactly does the above prove? You know the oil is needed for all ships, aircraft, vehicles and Japanese industry right?

It proves they had a huge stockpile. Put differently: The stockpile was enough to launch 12.5 Battles of Midway.

Just for the record that battle employed:

4 CV
2 CVL
7 BB
10 CA
3 CL
13 SS
35 Support ships
248 Carrier Aircraft
16 Float Planes.

And Midway is 2548 miles from Japan.

warspite1

Once again you are answering me with someone else's point. I don't care about Midway. Midway was not the sole use of oil for the Japanese. Ultimately this aspect of the argument is pointless. You are never going to believe that a year and a half of oil (before the Pacific War starts) is a problem for an industrialised country which needs its large navy. But then you are a wargamer playing with cardboard and pixels and, as the Spain/Turkey 'plan' evidenced, you are totally disinterested in real life aspects of wargames.

[Bo Rearguard]

This topic doesn't fall into the category of "what if". It is in the "never would/could have happened" category.

For those who want the short version that's an excellent summation.

[Aurelian]

Again, the IJA was *not* going to divert anything that did not contribute to taking the SRA. I don't care what some old DOS game says, I don't care what some board game says.

If Hawaii could be invaded, then why didn't the Army go for it?

If Midway could be invaded, why didn't the Army go for it?

Just because an old game allowed me to bombard Japan with old battleships does not mean it can be done in reality.

[Buckrock]

Let me get this straight: You're saying that, in a time of war, a Japanese warship would be denied access to a Japanese controlled port that otherwise had space for it. I want to see real evidence for that.

LOL, I'm supposed to provide historical evidence about something the real Yamamoto would probably not have done in the first place, and all to disprove your comic book version of 1941 Japan.

Are you seriously saying you can't imagine the circumstances in 1941 where Yamamoto's orders for his destroyers might be unable to take precedence over existing orders and plans from those with superior authority to him? He could just decide to grab a port berth somewhere that has a crane and tie it up for 12 weeks and none of the relevant authorities could say boo? Even with all the frantic preparation work going on in 1941? Yeah, right.

Yamamoto was CinC of the Combined Fleet (just like there was a CinC of the China Area Fleet) but still subordinate to the Naval General Staff, headed by Admiral Nagano. The Navy General Staff were also one half of the IGHQ, the ultimate military authority. The other half of the IGHQ were the Army General Staff who added in the IJA's own needs. Then there was the Ministries of the Tojo Government, including the Navy Ministry which was led by Admiral Shimada. They also had authority regarding Japan's national infrastructure. Last but not least were the CinC of Strategic Ports and the CinC of Naval Bases. These two were not even subordinate to the Navy General Staff but reported direct to the Emperor, as effectively did the IGHQ and the Tojo Government.

Other than the near-feudal nature of Japan's military and civilian bureaucracies, none of this should have created insurmountable problems for those who operated within the limits of their own authority. I never said otherwise. It was you who decided to have Yamamoto go rogue in a system not known for its flexibility.

These hierarchies were real. I would have considered supplying you Peattie's chart from Kaigun but can't currently be bothered doing a scan&paste given the fact that all you're doing is spitballing stuff in the hope of making something stick.

I refuse to believe any of this garbage till it gets proven. Yamamoto - commander of the fleet - wouldn't be able to have a single berth in any port in the entire Japanese empire for months on end!!??

Who said that? I never have. If he followed the correct process, he may have even got two berths.

All I've been pointing out is what the lines of authority were. Yamamoto had no direct authority over the ports, bases and yards. If he acted outside his authority and undermined that of others, he would not only be expected to encounter objections and disapproval, his actions would almost inevitably attract attention from the Navy Ministry and General Staff, the people I assume you don't want him yet having to share his plans with.

From what I've read of the historical Yamamoto, he was admirably equipped to make the system work for him rather than to have to try subverting it. He was respected, popular and influential and used those aspects to advantage when dealing with his military and political colleagues. What I haven't ever seen is any accounts where he was acting like some mini-shogun, therefore I can't help you with the evidence you're asking for.

[Buckrock]

The "southern islands" of the Philippines taken historically by the Japanese at this time were the island of Jolo and a small enclave around the port of Davao on Mindanao. The airfields at these two locations would have brought the JAAF no closer to the main US airfields on Luzon than the Japanese airfields on Formosa had.

Do you intend to do the historical invasions of the southern Philippines? If not, please supply the forces, places and times of your alternative plan for this area.

They can capture Mindoro, which gets the short range fighters in range. Assets not being used for the invasion of Luzon would do the job.

How many battalions will invade and secure Mindoro and when will that invasion occur? How long are you allowing for Mindoro's two small civilian airfields to be made ready for sustained operations by twin-engined bombers?

[RangerJoe]

The "southern islands" of the Philippines taken historically by the Japanese at this time were the island of Jolo and a small enclave around the port of Davao on Mindanao. The airfields at these two locations would have brought the JAAF no closer to the main US airfields on Luzon than the Japanese airfields on Formosa had.

Do you intend to do the historical invasions of the southern Philippines? If not, please supply the forces, places and times of your alternative plan for this area.

They can capture Mindoro, which gets the short range fighters in range. Assets not being used for the invasion of Luzon would do the job.

How many battalions will invade and secure Mindoro and when will that invasion occur? How long are you allowing for Mindoro's two small civilian airfields to be made ready for sustained operations by twin-engined bombers?

Even I can say that there was a place for large bombers on Mindanao . . .

https://military-history.fandom.com/wik ... e_Airfield

[Buckrock]

They can capture Mindoro, which gets the short range fighters in range. Assets not being used for the invasion of Luzon would do the job.

How many battalions will invade and secure Mindoro and when will that invasion occur? How long are you allowing for Mindoro's two small civilian airfields to be made ready for sustained operations by twin-engined bombers?

Even I can say that there was a place for large bombers on Mindanao . . .

https://military-history.fandom.com/wik ... e_Airfield

You say Mindanao, I say Mindoro. Lets call the whole thing off.

[Aurelian]

Potato Potatoe, he keeps moving the goal posts.

[Curtis Lemay]

A truly predictable response. Instead of your one liner responses that are designed to deflect from the fact this 'plan' is total fantasy, try providing the detail for this 'plan' that you've allegedly "wargamed successfully everytime you've tried it".... (this despite the fact you didn't realise destroyers as troop carriers wouldn't work, Midway needs to be taken, you couldn't transfer Zeros from Japanese held islands, you didn't have enough transports for more than one island and you've consistently had to change your mind about how the KB need to be used compared to historically).....

I've corrected you on this repeatedly. What I said was that I've successfully captured the HI in every Pacific War - style game I've ever played (so have plenty of other players). I haven't gamed this idea, however. But I'm making a clinching case for it.

You know exactly what I am talking about with the Bettys.

Evidently not.

Give us the detail.

I've answered most of this over and over.

1. When do the destroyers head for Maui?

The destroyers have a range of 1400 miles at full speed. They only need 400 to sail in and out of the detection zone. That leaves them 1000 miles of slack.

2. Where do they halt pending the final run-in to the island? How far from Maui?

They want to start the run 200 miles out.

3. What time does the run-in to Maui start?

Dusk of course.

4. What time do the Betty's take-off from the Marshalls?

In time to synch with the first strike.

5. What time are the Betty's due to arrive off the HI and where do they hold such that they don't alert the defenders on HI?

In synch with the first strike. If they get there early, they hold out of detection range.

6. What time do the destroyers reach Maui?

Probably about 5 hours after departing. Around 11:00pm. Note that night is a bit longer than day on December 7, 1941, in Hawaian waters.

7. Where do the troops land?

Where the pathfinders guide them.

8. How long does it take to unload the two battalions plus their transport?

No transport. I would guess about a couple of hours. But they have lots of slack.

9. How far is the airfield, that can handle Bettys, from the invasion point? This is critical if you don’t want to throw away the Bettys and the Zeros you are denuding the carriers of.

They have all night to get into perfect strike position. Guided by the pathfinders.

10. Where are the US troops on the island?

It's Saturday night in peacetime on Maui. They're partying. Unless there is an alert - in which case the pathfinders would wave the DD off, and the invasion would have to take place in the morning.

In fact, if there is an alert, the whole thing might be postponed, just as it would be if the carriers were out of port.

11. What coastal defences are available to the defenders?

Whatever they are, they are unlikely to be manned without an alert order, and the invasion will be waved off in that case.

12. What time do the surviving Bettys run out of fuel and start crashing into the sea/land if the airfield isn't taken?

The Bettys have 400 miles of slack in their range. They can stay up for a while.

13. When in the day do the destroyers laden with fuel, spare parts, engines, ammunition, bombs/torpedoes and ground crew leave the KB and head for Maui? Obviously until the airfield is taken you are getting no Japanese aircraft on Maui (apart from those that have crashed out of fuel) and even if the airfield is captured intact, the Japanese aircraft are empty sitting ducks until they can be serviced and re-supplied.

They head back once the raid is underway.

And the air forces on Oahu are not in mid-war condition. Their capabilities are better understood at this time by how they performed on Luzon . And the Japanese know the full plan and all contingencies. The Americans will take days to even figure out what's up.

14. Have you decided what you are doing with the KB yet? You have the benefit of hindsight as you know the Wake invasion will initially be a disaster and you know six of the KB (inc two carriers) will be required for that.
15. What about Midway? What ships, have you earmarked for that operation and in particular, which carriers will be needed to provide air cover?
16. Following Pearl, where were the KB used next? Have you allowed for losses over Midway and the aircraft you’ve sent to Maui?

The carriers will make a visit to Midway on the way back - assisting that invasion.

Remember. The real life Japanese knew the desperate need for secrecy and surprise. Your 'plan' simply drives a coach and horses through this by flying Bettys (that are somehow timed to coincide with the carrier attack) to HI (and they can't be early because this will alert the defenders before the carrier planes - and they can't be late because they will be facing an alert defender) and sailing two destroyer flotillas around the HI.

Risk. Reward. The risk is low and the reward is huge.

So please stop stalling and tell us how this 'plan', that needs perfect timing and co-ordination, works in order to ensure that the Japanese don't lose 40+ precious Bettys and their even more precious aircrew, two destroyer flotillas and two battalions of troops before the war has properly started. Oh and also that ensures the carrier attack is not fatally compromised by one or more of these elements being detected.

Exactly: They are risking two battalions and two air groups (although the planes could run for it easily). The reward is catching two carriers in port and delaying the US response by two years.

[Curtis Lemay]

Once again you are answering me with someone else's point. I don't care about Midway. Midway was not the sole use of oil for the Japanese. Ultimately this aspect of the argument is pointless. You are never going to believe that a year and a half of oil (before the Pacific War starts) is a problem for an industrialised country which needs its large navy. But then you are a wargamer playing with cardboard and pixels and, as the Spain/Turkey 'plan' evidenced, you are totally disinterested in real life aspects of wargames.

No, I was answering your post. My point was that the Japanese are not running on fumes. They clearly have flexibility as to exactly when to start the war and flexibility in securing the NEI oil. Your claims that they have no flexibility about that are false.

[Curtis Lemay]

Who said that? I never have. If he followed the correct process, he may have even got two berths.

Then what have we been talking about?

[Curtis Lemay]

How many battalions will invade and secure Mindoro and when will that invasion occur? How long are you allowing for Mindoro's two small civilian airfields to be made ready for sustained operations by twin-engined bombers?

Whatever they used historically. They've got plenty of spares once Luzon is postponed. Mindoro is only needed by the fighters.

[warspite1]

A truly predictable response. Instead of your one liner responses that are designed to deflect from the fact this 'plan' is total fantasy, try providing the detail for this 'plan' that you've allegedly "wargamed successfully everytime you've tried it".... (this despite the fact you didn't realise destroyers as troop carriers wouldn't work, Midway needs to be taken, you couldn't transfer Zeros from Japanese held islands, you didn't have enough transports for more than one island and you've consistently had to change your mind about how the KB need to be used compared to historically).....

I've corrected you on this repeatedly. What I said was that I've successfully captured the HI in every Pacific War - style game I've ever played (so have plenty of other players). I haven't gamed this idea, however. But I'm making a clinching case for it.

You know exactly what I am talking about with the Bettys.

Evidently not.

Give us the detail.

I've answered most of this over and over.

1. When do the destroyers head for Maui?

The destroyers have a range of 1400 miles at full speed. They only need 400 to sail in and out of the detection zone. That leaves them 1000 miles of slack.

2. Where do they halt pending the final run-in to the island? How far from Maui?

They want to start the run 200 miles out.

3. What time does the run-in to Maui start?

Dusk of course.

4. What time do the Betty's take-off from the Marshalls?

In time to synch with the first strike.

5. What time are the Betty's due to arrive off the HI and where do they hold such that they don't alert the defenders on HI?

In synch with the first strike. If they get there early, they hold out of detection range.

6. What time do the destroyers reach Maui?

Probably about 5 hours after departing. Around 11:00pm. Note that night is a bit longer than day on December 7, 1941, in Hawaian waters.

7. Where do the troops land?

Where the pathfinders guide them.

8. How long does it take to unload the two battalions plus their transport?

No transport. I would guess about a couple of hours. But they have lots of slack.

9. How far is the airfield, that can handle Bettys, from the invasion point? This is critical if you don’t want to throw away the Bettys and the Zeros you are denuding the carriers of.

They have all night to get into perfect strike position. Guided by the pathfinders.

10. Where are the US troops on the island?

It's Saturday night in peacetime on Maui. They're partying. Unless there is an alert - in which case the pathfinders would wave the DD off, and the invasion would have to take place in the morning.

In fact, if there is an alert, the whole thing might be postponed, just as it would be if the carriers were out of port.

11. What coastal defences are available to the defenders?

Whatever they are, they are unlikely to be manned without an alert order, and the invasion will be waved off in that case.

12. What time do the surviving Bettys run out of fuel and start crashing into the sea/land if the airfield isn't taken?

The Bettys have 400 miles of slack in their range. They can stay up for a while.

13. When in the day do the destroyers laden with fuel, spare parts, engines, ammunition, bombs/torpedoes and ground crew leave the KB and head for Maui? Obviously until the airfield is taken you are getting no Japanese aircraft on Maui (apart from those that have crashed out of fuel) and even if the airfield is captured intact, the Japanese aircraft are empty sitting ducks until they can be serviced and re-supplied.

They head back once the raid is underway.

And the air forces on Oahu are not in mid-war condition. Their capabilities are better understood at this time by how they performed on Luzon . And the Japanese know the full plan and all contingencies. The Americans will take days to even figure out what's up.

14. Have you decided what you are doing with the KB yet? You have the benefit of hindsight as you know the Wake invasion will initially be a disaster and you know six of the KB (inc two carriers) will be required for that.
15. What about Midway? What ships, have you earmarked for that operation and in particular, which carriers will be needed to provide air cover?
16. Following Pearl, where were the KB used next? Have you allowed for losses over Midway and the aircraft you’ve sent to Maui?

The carriers will make a visit to Midway on the way back - assisting that invasion.

Remember. The real life Japanese knew the desperate need for secrecy and surprise. Your 'plan' simply drives a coach and horses through this by flying Bettys (that are somehow timed to coincide with the carrier attack) to HI (and they can't be early because this will alert the defenders before the carrier planes - and they can't be late because they will be facing an alert defender) and sailing two destroyer flotillas around the HI.

Risk. Reward. The risk is low and the reward is huge.

So please stop stalling and tell us how this 'plan', that needs perfect timing and co-ordination, works in order to ensure that the Japanese don't lose 40+ precious Bettys and their even more precious aircrew, two destroyer flotillas and two battalions of troops before the war has properly started. Oh and also that ensures the carrier attack is not fatally compromised by one or more of these elements being detected.

Exactly: They are risking two battalions and two air groups (although the planes could run for it easily). The reward is catching two carriers in port and delaying the US response by two years.

warspite1

Lol....