GW Counterfactual Take 3.

[rkr1958]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #2.

Allied Atlantic Command.
The Allied Atlantic Command is a joint USN, RN, Free France command responsible for convoy routing, escorts and patrols for not just the Atlantic, as the command name implies, but for all sea areas worldwide including the Atlantic, Med & Pacific. The Allied Atlantic Command reports to the Combine Chiefs of Staff. It’s the Combine Chiefs of Staff that make the final decision for USA & CW action types each impulse and recommends Free France action. This is only a recommendation and the final decision for Free France’s action type is made by Charles de Gaulle. What a pain in the a$$ he is at times, well actually most of the time.

US & CW action types decisions by the Combine Chiefs of Staff result from recommendations for subordinate commands that report directly to the Combine Chiefs. The (joint) Allied Atlantic Command is currently 1 of 7 such commands. Subordinate command’s recommendations are not weighted equally by the Combined Chiefs. While the weighting is unknown what is known is that the Allied Atlantic Command does carry significant weight but definitely far from full weight in the final action type decision.

In the previous (axis) impulse the Allied Atlantic Command lost 5 CPs sunk and 7 aborted or a total of 12 CPs that need replacing and/or mitigating in the following sea area:
• Cape St Vincent – 7 (currently 4 left)
• East Med – 1 (currently 0 left, supply broken to Middle East/East Africa)
• Arabian Sea – 2 (currently 0 left, supply broken to Middle East/East Africa)
• Coral Sea – 2.

Also, the Atlantic Command has the requirement for adding 4 more CPs to the Northern Pacific Route CP chain for the additional lend lease BP from the USA to the USSR added this turn, which means
• See of Japan – 1
• Okhotsk Sea – 1
• Bering Sea – 1
• Gulf of Alaska – 1

Not surprisingly to anyone, especially the Combine Chiefs of Staff, is that the Allied Atlantic Command 100% of the time recommends (request) a naval action for the US, CW & Free France on the first allied impulse of each turn. But often has to do with less than full naval actions for all three major powers.

It is (also) standard practice for the Allied Atlantic Command to provide their plan to replace and/or mitigate CP losses, aborts and new requirements in this case which amounts to replacing and/or mitigating 12 CP deficient in 4 Sea Areas and adding 1 CP to each of the 4 northern Pacific route sea areas.

And if that’s not enough, it’s also standard practice for the Allied Atlantic Command to provide recommend CP escorts and patrols for all sea areas (worldwide).

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[rkr1958]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #2.

Allied Atlantic Command. Report & Recommendations to Combined Chiefs of Staff.

Current Allied CP Lines.

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CP Deficient/Needs.
• Cape St Vincent – 7
• East Med – 1
• Arabian Sea – 2
• Coral Sea – 2
• See of Japan – 1
• Okhotsk Sea – 1
• Bering Sea – 1
• Gulf of Alaska – 1

The USN has 5 organized and the CW 16 organized CPs in port as shown below. Also shown are the 1 USN and 6 CW disorganized (flipped) CPs in port. It’s the organized CPs from which the allies may use to replace and/or mitigate their current deficient and met their additional requirements

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CP Loss Replacement Plan
1. 1 USN CP Norfolk & 6 CW CP Liverpool to CSV (100% chance, 1 USN, 1 CW naval move).
2. 1 CW CP Karachi, India to Arabian Sea (100% chance, 1 CW naval move)
3. 2 CW CP Valetta, Malta (2 RN naval moves)
a. 1st CP to Arabian Sea, 2nd CP to East Med (70% chance)
b. 1st CP to East Med (30% chance intercepted), 2nd CP to Arabian Sea (70% chance)
c. 1st & 2nd CP to East Med (9% chance both successfully intercepted), leaving Arabian Sea at a deficient of 1 of 2 CP.
4. 2 CW CPs Brisbane, AUS -> Coral Sea (100%, 1 RN naval move).

USN Lend Lease +1 BP to USSR CP Plan
1. 1 USN CP Manila (reflags USSR) to Sea of Japan (100%, 1 USN naval move)
2. 1 USN CP Truk (reflags USSR) to Okhotsk Sea (100%, 1 USN naval move)
3. 1 USN CP San Diego (reflags USSR) to Bering Sea (100%, 1 USN naval move)
4. 1 USN CP San Diego (reflags USSR) to Gulf of Alaska (100%, 1 USN naval move)

Additional this command is requesting that the 5 disorganized CPs in Gibraltar and the 1 in Port Said be reorganized this impulse, or as quickly as possible. Reorganizing an odd number of CPs, especially if a naval is taken, is a hard sell because of the 2 CPs per reorg point ratio. But, hey who knows might as well put in the request.

CP Escorts & Patrols.
1. Because of the single and now flipped IJN sub squadrons in the Arabian and Coral Sea the allies for this turn don’t need to be concerned with escorts and patrols in those two sea areas, just replacing the CPs lost & aborted.
2. A recommendation for strong escorts and patrols in Cape St. Vincent, West Med & East Med is considered a must especially given the presence of 3 U-boat flotillas/Sub Gps in each of these areas.
3. With German and Vichy subs fully committed ASW escorts and patrols in other sea areas are not needed (this turn).
4. However; this leaves the threat of KM surface raiders (2 BBs in Brest, 2 old BBs in Kiel, 1 CA in Trieste) to address.
5. While it’s unlikely that Germany will take another combine just to chance sending (likely BB Bismarck & Tripitz) KM surface raiders out, the threat can’t be ignored completely.
6. This command recommends blockades of Brest and Kiel by carrier tasks forces in the Bay of Biscay and North Sea with reserve escorts and CPs in the UK to respond to unlikely sortie and breaking of the blockade(s) to other Atlantic Sea Areas.

BOA German & Vichy Threat.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #2.

Allied MTO Command.

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(1) Well, the allied MTO command also has significant input to action types.
(2) Working overtime the MTO command staff sees, what they believe, is an very good opportunity to isolate, cut supply to and trap German land forces in Italy south of a line running from La Spezia (west) to Venice (east).
(3) Their plan is so convincing that General Alexander, current commander of all allied forces in Italy, is able to organize a meeting with the Combine Chiefs of Staff who fly over under the guise of congratulating allied forces in their defeat of Italy.
(4) Security and travel (flight) plans for the Combined Chiefs is tight and varied. No more than one named member per aircraft allowed as to reduce risk of losing multiple members.
(5) All make it safely within 3 days of the emergency summons issued by General Alexander.
(6) The Combine Chiefs to each individual is impressed and excited over this plan which if successful, which looks like it should be successful, would not only trap German land forces in Italy but also should take significant pressure of off their Soviet ally.
(7) Within 48 hours (2 days) after arrival the Combine Chiefs of Staff issue their ok, and war directives, for the operation(s) and defer the directive for establishing a bridgehead in southern France.

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(8) The two operations are codenamed, Operation Leapfrog & Operation Toadstool.
(9) Operation Leapfrog, which will be commanded personally by General Alexander, are 4 amphibious allied landings in northern Italy & Zara.
(10) Operation Toadstool is an overland operation led by De Gaulle to link up with allied forces in Zara and northern Italy.

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(11) These operations will require super combine by the US, combine by the CW and land by the Free French.
(12) The needs of the Allied Atlantic Command will have to wait for later in the turn as this opportunity, which is fleeting and needs to be taken now, if successful should not only turn the tide of this war but shorten it to!
(13) Well that's the hope at least.
(14) The Allied Atlantic Command is ordered to give their full support to this operation.
(15) Also they are directed to reestablish supply to the Middle East, East Africa & Southern USSR.
(16) More significantly they are order to take naval moves that guarantee through the end of this impulse (at worse) supply to the Med, Middle East, East Africa & Southern USSR.
(17) This means no "unnecessary" naval moves into or attempting through Cape St. Vincent which could risk that supply line. That is, Germany (non-phasing) can only search if the allies make a move that stays within the CSV.
(18) Also, Allied Atlantic Command will made use of TRS for redundant supply into and through the East Med and/or Arabian Sea as necessary.
(19) At a minimum 1 of the 2 RN naval moves will be used for bombardment and amphibious landing task forces in the Italian Coast.
(20) But 2 is desired which means that the USN using TRS will first try to reestablish supply through the Arabian Sea and/or East Med.

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[rkr1958]

Ethiopia should now be aligned to an Allied major power. I have seen MWiF get this wrong. Did it work correctly?

So just doing a little exploring what to do about Ethiopia now that Italy is completely conquered.

Here's the current situation in Ethiopia.

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The CW is given the option to DOW Ethiopia but if they do ... oh boy.
All hexes, even the ones controlled by the CW and containing their units go to German controlled with alignment to Germany.

999-DOW-Ethopia.png (1.37 MiB) Viewed 427 times

However if the don't, then they can march into Addis Ababa.
I think as the CW I choose this option!

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[rkr1958]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #2. MTO.

Naval Moves. Supply.

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02-AL-MTO-NM-East-Med-Arabian-Sea.png (1.34 MiB) Viewed 400 times

(1) Allied Atlantic Naval Command able to restore supply to the Middle East, East Africa & Gort's BEF in Southern USSR using only US naval moves and transports.
(2) There's some risk in the East Med where German U-boats/Sub may search for the escorted supply transport.
(3) However; no risk in the Arabian Sea from the flipped IJN Sub Sq, so (redundant) supply ensured to the Middle East, East Africa & Gort's BEF in Southern USSR.
(4) Achieving this will USN moves only allows both RN naval moves to be used in the Italian Coast in support of Operation Leapfrog.

[rkr1958]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #2. MTO.

Naval Move. Italian Coast. West Med. Operation Leapfrog.
(1) Invasion, bombardment and reinforcement task forces put to sea off the Italian Coast and in the West Med.
(2) Combine Chiefs are having second thoughts about the intended amphibious invasion at Blue Beach (E1-Venice).
(3) The concern is that if the allocated forces take losses/flips during landing and allied forces can't link up quickly with this beachhead then they could be blitzed back into the sea.
(4) Per invasion wargaming shows this landing to be automatic IF heavily opposed Luftwaffe ground support doesn't get through or (unlikely) isn't flown.
(5) However; Blue Beach is considered necessary to protecting the northern flank of Green Beach, ensuring ZOC lock, eventual link up with Orange Beach and (eventual) isolation of German units south and capture of Venice and (eventually) Rome.
(6) The push by some to move Blue Beach to the Balkans, northeast of Zara has been fended off with the final decision to land at originally planned.
(7) Also, there's been some back and forth, mainly from the Free French, about Operation Toadstool and De Gaulle's scheduled assault vs German Mtn div to breakout in the Balkans.
(8) With HQ support, best (estimated) odds are +8.833A which gives a 91.3% PWIN but carriers with it a 42% of full survivor flip, 4.7% lose 3, 22% lose 2, 29.3% lose 1 and 44% lose 0.
(9) Also there's a risk that Germany may wish to fight a blitz which up PWIN to 95%, reduces expected losses to 38.3% lose 1, 3.7% lose 2; however any loss (42%) would require the loss of De Gaulle.
(10) The Combine Chiefs in a MOST SECRET memo acknowledge this risk as acceptable as a blitz also gives 74.3% of no flips (39%) or 1/2 flips (35.3%), which is expect to break up Germany's defense in the Balkans given the auto Zara landing and follow-up reinforcements.
(11) The Combine Chiefs play on De Gaulle's honor to launch the assault, or is it a blitz, only time will tell.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #2. PTO. Naval Moves.

(1) USN sends out a massive carrier attack task force into the China Sea hoping to do damage to the IJN escort, patrols, load transports and CPs there.
(2) Subs are send into the Sea of Japan to sink the CP, and any replacement CP.

China Sea & Sea of Japan.

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South China Sea.
(3) With storm in the South China Sea, 3 massive USN BB task forces are sent in hoping to find, inflict damage and sink loaded transport & CPs.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #2. Naval Combat.

Cape St. Vincent, West Med, East Med, Arabian Sea.

(1) Neither side looking to fight this impulse.
(2) May change in later impulse if allies move replacements CPs into these sea areas with the exception of the Arabian Sea which has no organized axis unit left to search.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. PTO. Naval Combat.

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China Sea.

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Sea of Japan.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. PTO. Naval Combat.

South China Sea (1/2).

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[rkr1958]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. PTO. Naval Combat.

South China Sea (2/2).

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02-AL-PTO-South-China-Sea-NC-1e.png (228.25 KiB) Viewed 376 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #2. Eastern Front.

Siberian Fronts.
(1) Shifting of fronts, no air or land combat.
(2) Positions at end of impulse.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #2. Eastern Front.

Southern Fronts (1/2).

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02-AL-Eastern-GSTK-1-Cacu-61-70.png (324.75 KiB) Viewed 360 times

02-AL-Eastern-GSTK-1-Cacu-62-74.png (310.69 KiB) Viewed 360 times

02-AL-Eastern-GSPT-A2A-USSR-62-69.png (219.25 KiB) Viewed 360 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #2. Eastern Front.

Southern Fronts (2/2).

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02-AL-Eastern-Southern-HQ-Reorg.png (270.71 KiB) Viewed 359 times

End of Impulse.
(1) Gort HQ-A moved via CW 1 rail move of their combine.

02-AL-Eastern-Southern-Fronts.png (1.59 MiB) Viewed 359 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 24. May/June 1943. Allied #3. MTO.

Pre Invasion Ground Strikes.

Combat Logs.

02-AL-MTO-GSTK-CL.png (124.5 KiB) Viewed 354 times

Rome.

02-AL-MTO-GSTK-Rome-A2A.png (255.57 KiB) Viewed 354 times

02-AL-MTO-GSTK-Rome.png (349.67 KiB) Viewed 354 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 24. May/June 1943. Allied #3. MTO.

Pre Invasion Ground Strikes.

Naples.

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02-AL-MTO-GSTK-Naples.png (291.65 KiB) Viewed 353 times

Ancona.

02-AL-MTO-GSTK-Ancona.png (352.54 KiB) Viewed 353 times

Milan.

02-AL-MTO-GSTK-Milan.png (353.49 KiB) Viewed 353 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 24. May/June 1943. Allied #3. MTO.

Pre Invasion Ground Strikes.

La Spezia.

02-AL-MTO-GSTK-La-Spezia.png (365.55 KiB) Viewed 352 times

(1) In summary, bitter air-to-air dog fights.
(2) Allies had their chances but managed to flip NO units.

[rkr1958]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #2. MTO/Balkans.

Operation Toadstool. Land Combat 1 of 5.
(1) Starts off ok, could have been better, could have been worse.

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02-AL-Balkan-LC-1-SE1-Sarajevo.png (263.31 KiB) Viewed 351 times

Operation Leapfrog. Land Combat 5 of 5.
(2) Automatic amphibious landing.
(3) Now let's see what happened in between.
(4) Hint. It was ugly, not disastrous, but ugly for the allies!

02-AL-Balkan-LC-5-Zara.png (215.39 KiB) Viewed 350 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #2. MTO.

Operation Leapfrog. Amphibious Landing 2 of 5. Blue Beach (E1-Veince).
(1) Luftwaffe ground support, which was heavily opposed, gets through AND the US rolls 2D10=3 resulting in the dreaded 14 (assault).
(2) Ok, with that out of the way there's 3 more landings, 2two of which are automatic and one that's +19A.
(3) Surely, the allies bad luck is gone!

02-AL-MTO-LC-2-E1-Venice-CL.png (54.69 KiB) Viewed 349 times

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02-AL-MTO-LC-2-E1-Venice.png (246.47 KiB) Viewed 349 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #2. MTO.

Operation Leapfrog. Amphibious Landing 3 of 5. Green Beach (SE1-Veince).

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02-AL-MTO-SE1-Veince-GSPT-A2A.png (264.61 KiB) Viewed 348 times

02-AL-MTO-GSPT-SE1-Venice.png (331.16 KiB) Viewed 348 times

02-AL-MTO-LC-3-SE1-Venice.png (207.66 KiB) Viewed 348 times