Perpetual Desolation - HLYA (German) vs a Soviet Player

[HardLuckYetAgain]

Turn 9

The goal here is the Rail in front of VL. I push forward a few hexes a turn.

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[HardLuckYetAgain]

Turn 9

Creeping up on Smolensk, one hex at a time

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[HardLuckYetAgain]

Turn 9

Got an Airborne Brigade Mogelov

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[HardLuckYetAgain]

Turn 9

Gomel Area

Need to start clearing this up since I have an FBD that is coming this way. My plan is to bring the two PZ DV's that come as reinforcements on turn 12 to this area too. So this area will start getting trickle in reinforcements not to awaken the bear to this area.

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[HardLuckYetAgain]

turn 9

Free Lunch in Kiev. I will take it

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[HardLuckYetAgain]

Turn 9

Dnep

Just moving forward at Inf speed. Resting some of the PZ's.

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[HardLuckYetAgain]

Turn 9

Zap area just moving forward infantry speed. Infantry speed is good . I haul in a Cav Division in the process.

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[HardLuckYetAgain]

Turn 9

Finish off the pocket in the Crimea and surround another unit.

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[HardLuckYetAgain]

Turn 9

Rail Head across the map

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[HardLuckYetAgain]

Turn 9

Ground Losses. 310,656 Soviet

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[HardLuckYetAgain]

Turn 9

Air Losses

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[HardLuckYetAgain]

Turn 9

OOB

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[HardLuckYetAgain]

Game is still ongoing waiting on turn 18 back from the Soviet player, it will be a week tomorrow since I sent it.

[HardLuckYetAgain]

Awaiting turn 19. Will update the AAR when we get into the middle of December:-)

[Wiedrock]

Been following this Server PvP on Discord from "a Soviet Player's" perspective.

Statistically your performance in your opponent's AAR is an outlier, that much I can say with certainty. Luckily he posts quite some combat reports which many people simply do not do or leave out the "Details" which is equally making the reports useless. So some questions came up I (and I assume some others) would like you to answer.
Note: I do not have all the info obviously, so I have to go with what I have.

Could you explain to the Community...

1. how you have a win ratio of close to 100%, sometimes even 100%? (not counting SCOUTs as losses)
   Like, can provide a detailed guide/scheme/matrix you apply to your decision before you do a right-click?
   One that everyone can follow to also reach 99% win ratios.
   Some in which is accounted for:
   • Unknown actual Soviet CV (the predictor is off by quite an amount at times)
   • Unknown Soviet/Axis SU committments
   • Unknown Soviet/Axis RESERVE committments
   • Unknown Soviet Air (well in this AAR this is not important due to no Soviet Air, but otherwise)
   • Unknown Soviet Leader (if changed/died)
   • Unknown Leader Rolls (especially the Soviet ones)
2. how you can combine a high win ratio as you have it with constantly close combat results (e.g. 2.X:1 Odds)?
3. how you do not have a single "Attack was Halted at Range XXX" result?
   Here again, provide a detailed Guide on how to avoid them, which everyone can follow to avoid these results with certainty. Looking at your attacks it seems that "Halts" at longer ranges would not be a part of the Combat results in this game at all.
4. why you did not at all attack the two GA UNIT spammed Hexes in T13?
   I assume an Axis Player who can predict Combat outcomes seemingly with 100% accuracy and avoid longer ranged halts completely should be able to plan ahead having sufficient units/MPs to make use of GA UNIT missions, right?

I created some collages of a few turns you did not share here so far.
I did not count SCOUTs (the ones I know off) as wins or losses.
I did not count "Surrender Flags" as wins.
I also left out the encircled Leningrad region out of the calculations (all were wins + 1xSCOUT).
Some turns you did GA Spam to Units which is not shown/was not posted like that by your opponent. But since your win ratio is basically 100% counting these few more as instant wins or just as wins does not change much. If GA UNIT or Interdiction is removing certain possibilities in combat results it would be nice if you could explain in what way.
Obv. some attacks are followups attacks, again, does not change the statistic if we would exclude them.

The good thing, with 100% wins I saved time with the calculator.

I am also attaching an PvP example of an halted attack you may explain how you would have avoided the Soviet increasing their CV by such a margin and causing a "halt at range" (since this never seems to happen in your attacks).

Looking forward for your detailed "Combat prediction Guide" we all can follow. I personally am especially looking forward how to avoid halts at longer ranges for all my Axis attacks in the future, thanks to your Guidance.

[Wiedrock]

3 more turns.

EDIT: Had the T14 as 88% because I messed up the 3/34=0.088 during the night, the actual is 1-0.088, so ~91%.
So the new average Win ratio over 6 turns is 97.89%.

[Joel Billings]

Please do not imply that cheating is going on here. I have checked the logs and can attest that there is no double downloading going on for the German player.

[Wiedrock]

I am just curious how he does it and hope for him to share it with the Community.

[Toronja91]

I'm a noob poster/long time lurker but he gives a big breakdown on his tactics/combat odds calculation here in this AAR: https://forums.matrixgames.com/viewtopi ... 5&start=20