SC ww1 balance issue with CP's Serbian blitz strategy

[hannaj]

Hi,

SC ww1 is a great game, but with two such different sides balancing can be difficult.

I think SC ww1 multiplayer is not balanced against the Serbian blitz strategy, which brings Bulgaria into the war so early that Bulgarians troops with Gemran stats can support Ottomans before Allies can attack. Serbia will have lost Nish before their reinforcemenft can suppot it, and Serbia is out or only holds Uskub. As a consequence Bulgaria will join the CPs in 1914, and the great war is decisively decided in favor of the central powers in 1915 if no serious mistake. The Serbian blitz strategy has been used at the beginning of https://forums.matrixgames.com/viewtopic.php?t=412154, though there nothing on Bulgaria has been said (which is the decisive point in my view) .

Caveats: bad luck of CP with attack on Belgrade in the first turn or extreme luck with Entende diplomacy on Bulgary can prevent this. But the game's outcome should not depend on such singular chances.

Possible fix(es): make Bulgaria's 8-15% mobilization trigger of both CP conquering Nish and 2 hexes of Uskub only 2-4% and another 6-11% in January 1915 if both conditions still hold (or distribute these mobilization triggers over several turns like for Belgrade). Alternatively, one could also make the "3 units 3 hexes east of Warsaw" Bulgarian mobilization trigger only fire from 1915 onwards, but this is maybe less perfect since the other two triggers alone can be sufficient, and are hard to defend against.

Don't believe me (and strong player): Feel free to challenge me on this at PBEM (password SerbianBlitz).

Just my two cents,

hannaj

[mdsmall]

I was intrigued by hannaj's challenge above, given that I had never seen Serbia surrender in a MP match before the spring of 1915. Frequently, they can hold out much longer, especially if the Entente decides to send French or British units to Serbia to shore up their defences. So, he and I recently completed a play-test of the Call to Arms campaign so I can see how the Serbian Blitz works out. I played the Entente side - hence I was defending Serbia. We agreed in advance that the test would proceed if the CP succeeded in taking Belgrade on the first turn; as it turned out, the Austro-Hungarians were succesful on the first try and Belgrade fell on August 1, 1914.

Apparently I held out a bit longer than most, but by January 2, 1915, Serbia had only two corps and one detachment left defending a small area around Nish, with one rebuilt corps arriving in the production queue. However, all of these units were cut off from their only general whowas defending Uskub. Nish would have fallen in another two turns and Serbia would have survived till April 1915 at the latest, by which time Bulgaria would have entered the war.

hannaj's strategy relied on sending 2-3 German corps plus a general to Serbia within the first three turns, as well as sending two AH cavalry corps south from Galicia. This is in addition to the Austro-Hungarian Second Army (which is a must for any offensive against Serbia). I would describe his tactics as "maximum aggression" aimed at killing Serbian corps as quickly as possible, regardless of cost to the Central Powers. Given Serbia's very small economic base and limited space to retreat, it worked. I could have tried to send French reinforcements to Serbia via Albania from November 1914 onward, but Serbian corps were dying so fast, I was concerned the French would arrive too late to do any good in holding the line.

Needless to say, this concentration of forces came at a cost on other fronts. Russia succeeded in capturing Lemberg and Stanislaw in Galicia by December 1914. In the west, Belgium had surrendered, but the Germans had not made any gains in Alsace-Lorraine beyond the Briey mine (which always falls on the first turn). Still, with the imminent demise of Serbia, the CP could shore up their position on east and west, and could afford to send some expeditionary units to the Middle East to help the Ottomans, who entered the way in November, 1914.

My conclusion is that the Serbian blitz is an effective strategy for CP players who have a high tolerance for risk and are prepared to attack aggressively. Does it unbalance the game? I am less sure about that. In large measure it depends on what the CP does with Bulgaria after Serbia surrenders. I have certainly seen games where the Bulgarians become an expeditionary force in the Middle East and serve as the "tip of the spear" for an Ottoman offensive into Egypt.

My solution to that in the Icarus mod has been to a) cut the rail line over the Bosphorus so the Central Powers can only move one per turn via operational movement from Europe to Asia, and b) to follow a house rule that no European minors on either side can be sent to the Middle East (with the limited exception of the Portuguese for the Entente). One could also slow down Bulgarian mobilization, or put on break on Bulgaria fully mobilizing - regardless of what happens in Serbia - until spring or summer of 1915. I personally prefer using the house rule mentioned above. In real life, I don't think any of the Balkan minors would have been prepared to fight beyond their immediate neighbhood. And in the case of Bulgaria, the Entente maintained a beach-head around Salonika for the rest of the war which keep the Bulgarian forces tied up defending their own territory.

Thanks again to hannaj for posting this challenge. It is always fun to do a deep dive into opening strategies for this classic game.

[hannaj]

Thanks for the game and accepting the challenge. You did a fantastic job defending Serbia, and also at the French and Russian frontier were doing better than I usually experience , though nothing too dramatically yet. I overall agree with your assessment, would not say though that CPs attack regardless of costs. Even if first attack is 2:2 or several 2:1, if you have weakened the unit and enough units available to attack, you have a total positive expectation value plus a kill. Losses in our game were 8 (CP) vs. 35 (Entente); MPPs losts on units was a bit more balanced: 6800 (CP) vs. 9600 (Entente).

Guess it is still is to be determined whether Serbian blitz is another opening or putting the game out a balance (all this only if Belgrade is conquered first turn).
With Belgium + Serbian conquest + Bulgarian joining early + typically earlier artillery tech 1, CP have quite some overwhelming early advantage.

Anyhow, here is the Serbian blitz opening:

SerbianBlitz.jpg (313.45 KiB) Viewed 178 times

SerbianBlitz.pdf

(289.25 KiB) Downloaded 3 times

EDITED: Two additional screenshots further into the Serbian blitz.

First from a game September 12, 1914, where the Serbian Blitz went extremely well (Entente caught by surprise I guess). Here one nicely sees the purpose of the cavalary and why I called it blitz.

SerbianBlitz2.jpg (278.1 KiB) Viewed 156 times

Second from aforementioned game vs. mdsmall January 2, 1914, who did a great job defending Serbia. This is how it looks like if Serbia blitz goes not too well/mediocre. Please note that the challenge was, besides testing Serbian blitz, specifically to defend Nish till end of 1914, which mdsmall managed. CPs emptied the artillery (which usually is not railed in) the previous turn to win this specific challenge (and failed). Actually, artillery lvl 1 became available just this turn but challenge is challenge.

SerbianBlitz3.jpg (346.51 KiB) Viewed 156 times

[Zarevic]

But as I understand this opening only works if Belgrade falls in the very 1st turn (50% chance as you say)...
If it doesn´t fall, is as big the difference to endanger the whole strat? Do you keep going against Serbia or change your priorities to the main fronts?

Very interesting post. Thanks for it!

[hannaj]

If Belgrade does not fall first turn, the game will be way more balanced and different opening strategies are similarly good, I think.

I would still try to entrench around Belgrade and attack 1-2 turns later, as it is still important for NM and Bulgarian mobilization trigger.
Possibly, attack Valjevo first and move German corps to eastern front instead. The 2nd army might
now either help defend Lemberg though this is very difficult or be depolyed against Serbia.

I'd resume Serbian attack in full after other fronts stabilize or artillery becomes available or see Belgium/British untis are not
withdrawn from the western front or if somehwhere at the Serbian front good attack statistics become available.