Japanese defensive strategy...

[Damien Thorn]

ORIGINAL: mdiehl

I'll clarify: 'Denial Land, boy.' Hope the comma helps.

It does, but the overall tone still sounds like you intended it to be insulting. That's OK; I don't mind. It's one of the signs that you are losing your argument when you start resorting to personal attacks.

I'll flip your argument back at you. If you think that the IJN could have dashed a bombardment TF in to Midway they'd have tried it? Do you think that there was maybe a reason why they decided not to do so?

Sure, there were several reasons. Firstly, they didn't expect enemy CVs to be in the area so they knew their CAP was more than sufficient to deal with the air power at Midway until after the invasion. Secondly, they were expecting the American forces to come out to fight after Midway was captured so maybe the battleships and cruisers were armed with all AP ammo - expecting a lot of surface action.

If you think that it is a reasonable plan to count on bombardment shutting down airbases, where are all the examples that demonstrate that it could be done?

Well, I'm not sure what kind of shore guns they had at Midway but, assuming they didn't have anything significant, CLs and DDs could go back and forth picking off anything above the ground at will. I've seen Midway; it is SMALL. If there were significant shore guns there then they would have to be suppressed first with a nightime bombardment from battleships or CAs.

[tsimmonds]

I'll flip your argument back at you. If you think that the IJN could have dashed a bombardment TF in to Midway they'd have tried it? Do you think that there was maybe a reason why they decided not to do so?

Actually, Kurita with Mogami, Mikuma, Suzuya, Kumano, Asashio and Arashio was about three hours away from doing exactly that when the MI operation was cancelled. The bombardment would have begun about an hour before the dawn twilight.

[mdiehl]

It does, but the overall tone still sounds like you intended it to be insulting. That's OK; I don't mind. It's one of the signs that you are losing your argument when you start resorting to personal attacks.

No, it's a clear sign that I'm feeling insulted when I retaliate. I've posted facts. So far you have posted nothing but denial. To wit, your claim that 1. I'm just wrong. When confronted with links to places where you can verify the same you switch arguments to claiming that the sources are incorrect. Hence "Denial Land" because your only rebuttal so far has been to claim that the sources are incorrect. If you believe otherwise, start acting like you have enough respect for the argument to contradict anthing I've said here by citing an established fact.

Sure, there were several reasons. Firstly, they didn't expect enemy CVs to be in the area so they knew their CAP was more than sufficient to deal with the air power at Midway until after the invasion. Secondly, they were expecting the American forces to come out to fight after Midway was captured so maybe the battleships and cruisers were armed with all AP ammo - expecting a lot of surface action.

Well, YEAAH, but ISN'T THAT THE POINT? If you don't know where the enemy CVs are, isn't it a BAD PLAN to assume that they're not around since AS HISTORY DEMONSTRATED, then you can't assume IN A SIMULATION that the same stupid thing won't happen all over again, especially since in the real world the outcome was basically EXACTLY what the USN planned, from the outset, to make happen?

And if the real Japanese were so unconcerned about Midway, why arm up for the second strike? THEY, unlike apparently the loyal opposition around here, at least knew how dangerous an operational land base could be.

Actually, Kurita with Mogami, Mikuma, Suzuya, Kumano, Asashio and Arashio was about three hours away from doing exactly that when the MI operation was cancelled. The bombardment would have begun about an hour before the dawn twilight.

Yeaahh.. that was AAAFFTER the JAAPANEEESE pounded the SNOOOT out of Midway using aircraft. That is the real deal. 1. To get close enough to Midway you have to suppress the airbase. 2. The bombardment TF turned back because the airbase was NOT suppressed and, moreover, USN CVs might still be in the area.

3. Note to HerbieH Mikuma and Mogami collided. At night. Doing nothing in particular other than trying to execute a turn. Hmmm. Guess it ain't a perfect world after all.

[mdiehl]

It's such a tragedy that both sides did not have all this knowledge to work from. I don't see why EVERY naval invasion didn't begin with a bombardment TF starting at a distance of exactly 251 m from the target racing in for the 40,000 ton equivalent of a strafing run, secure in the knowledge that land based air can't possibly be a threat. It's a wonder that the operational planners in either navy could remember, from moment to moment, how to breathe.

I sure hope Matrix resets all the parameters of UV and WitP to reflect the fact that Big Guns on Big Ships really were, after all, a much more effective weapon system than puny little gnat like aircraft launched from land bases and CVs.

[tsimmonds]

2. The bombardment TF turned back because the airbase was NOT suppressed

Actually, he was turned back because the operation was cancelled. Otherwise I expect that Kurita, of all people, would have kept going; whether that would have been a good idea is a different question.

I'm not sure why they cancelled the operation....anyone?[;)]

[mdiehl]

Actually, he was turned back because the operation was cancelled.

Yep. That's the key.. "Why? Why was the operation cancelled?" (Any Axis Fanboys reading this should "Contemplate this on the Tree of Woe.")

[jnier]

ORIGINAL: mdiehl

No my statement is correct. Read my post.

Last time I check CV-based aircraft were part of USN.

you are simply now trying to pretend that you meant something other than what you said.

What? So when you read my post in a way that is demonstrably incorrect, it's because I am trying to mislead you? How about you actually read my posts, and everyone else's for that matter, CAREFULLY.

[pasternakski]

You are not alone. The farce is with you.

[mogami]

Hi, The trouble with aircraft is they get lost or they can't fly in all weather.
The Japanese decided to launch a 2nd strike but they didn't know they had already disposed of the Midway strike aircraft so were in no further danger from that airfield.
I'm not suggesting a plan where Japan does not suffer some lost or damaged ships. However the Japanese did not make too many offensive naval strikes after Midway but a few of the ones they did attempt were aimed at hitting an enemy airfield. Prior to Midway I don't think they felt threatend by any airfield. (But they were always carefull to capture enemy airfields so they could have control of the air)

Also I think historically they did not wish to damage Midway airfield only destroy the aircraft. They intended on using the field themselves.
If they had realized they had destroyed the aircraft in the air rather then on the ground results might have been different.

It is important not to over look the fact that had they not decided to launch the 2nd strike they would have had 100+ aircraft in the air heading for the USN CV long before the USN strikes arrived. As a result there would have been no loaded flight decks.

If Nagumo was concerned about Midway and not aware of USN CV the prudent course would have been to reverse course and put more distance between his TF and Midway while recovering and rearming the strike AC. (The plan expressly contained instructions to always maintain an anti shipping strike force)

Since the USN plan could not predict the behaviour of the enemy TF commander this critical aspect of the final outcome has to be considered "Luck" How can you factor in enemy mistakes in advance (unless you are Germany and the enemy commander is Gamelin)

[byron13]

Hey, Sabre21! Welcome over from the Flashpoint Germany site. How're things going over there? Don't get in a snoot because mdiehl took a swipe at you; it's a compliment if he does.

I think this thread is proof that the Japanese had a better than 1000:1 odds of winning Midway. The odds there were only 3:4. The numbers lined up against mdiehl are - what? - ten against one? Twenty against one? And he's still in there firing away. Who woulda thunk?

I'm with Damien: this thread is great entertainment.

[byron13]

Anyway, to get back to the a/c range thing. The source I'm using, which in turn cites the Office of Naval Intelligence's 1947 official report on the battle, says that Spruance wanted to launch immediately after the Japanese fleet was spotted, but waited an entire hour to launch until he reached what he believed was 155 miles separation in order to provide his TBD's a decent chance of returning. At 175 miles, the TBD's only had a chance of returning to the carriers.

Hey, don't shoot me: I wasn't there. I'm only reporting a source that seems credible to me.

[pasternakski]

ORIGINAL: byron13

I think this thread is proof that the Japanese had a better than 1000:1 odds of winning Midway. The odds there were only 3:4. The numbers lined up against mdiehl are - what? - ten against one? Twenty against one? And he's still in there firing away. Who woulda thunk?

So now that you have reiterated that the Japanese actually won the battle of Midway, what's your point?

[byron13]

Hey, man, just having fun.

Obviously, I never said the Japanese won. Nor did I say they were likely to win, which they weren't. I do disagree that there was just a one in a thousand chance that the results would have been any better for the Japanese than they were. Again, the only thing I disagree with is the EXTREME odds that mdiehl places on the battle. Since the whole battle was based on being able to spot the opponent, and spotting was an iffy thing dependent on just a few aircraft, the weather, and (dare I say it) "luck," I believe those odds are too extreme.

But I'm not ready to go down that path again.

The point made in the post is that mdiehl is sticking to his guns in the face of significant opposition. If that is a point.

Anything else?

[herbieh]

Mhdiel makes some dangerous assumptions about some of the people who post here
21 years of screaming around the oceans at flank speed buddy
Been there , done that
Maybe the Aussie Navy was, and still is a bit better at it[:D] ( no insults to fellow salts guys)
The Jap cruisers collided dodgy a sub attack
Poo happens
You imply that merely by putting a load of battle wagons and such together is going to cause a collision, and thus is a good reason why the bombardment wont happen.
Crap, the more ships on task the better, if Im going to risk em from an air attack, Im going to make sure that I only have to do the job once.
Just how many years have you spent at sea by the way?

[tsimmonds]

This question was asked waaay back in this thread, and although the answer can no longer help the person who asked, it is still interesting.

"....the time for sunrise on 5 June 1942 for a position in latitude 31N, longitude 179W, was 0452, plus or minus two minutes. This position was roughly halfway between the two fleets at the time. Civil Twilight, when the horizon should have been clearly discerned, would have begun at or about 0425, but the first streaks of the new day would ahve appeared on the eastern horizon between 0315, the onset of astronomical twilight, and 0351, the start of nautical twilight."

From The Barrier and the Javelin, ©1983 H.P. Willmott

[TIMJOT]

Relax mdiehl, I am merely proposing an alternative to the all Bombardment or all CV arguement. I am not saying its better than a 6 CV attack but it might be better than just a 4 CV attack. Wether it could work depends on which strike ranges to believe. If I split the difference in the ranges being discussed, I believe it possible to time your approach to reach the edge of that range around dusk. AS I mentioned earlier, this force would be direclty covered by th CVLs while KB would supporting from the rear and out of range. Bombardment TF then dashes in undercover of darkness and bombards; retireing at dawn just as KB air strike is approaching with a coup de grasse air strike. The air strike covers the retirement from any possible retaliation from the Midway

1. How does the USN air strike "give away their presence" other than in the general sense that a/c are somewhere within 150-300 miles of the attacked TF?

I said "presence" not location. If USN CVs send strike against retireing Bombardment TF. It confirms to IJN that there are CVs in the area.

2. If the IJN CVs are WITH the bombardment TF, then they're being attacked.

They are not WITH the Bombardment TF, they are standing off providing cover.

3. What "reserve strike?" If the CVs are 250 miles to the rear of the bombardment TF and the USN CVs are, say. 150 miles further out, Japanese a/c "reserve" or for that matter "primary" aren't going to have a clue where the USN CVs are located

.


Correct they will not know the location of the US CVs, but niether will the USN CVs know the location of KB. However the IJN does now know there are CVs around. The reserve strike stays anti-ship armed and with the PBYs burning wrecks on Midway or otherwise incapacitated durng the bombardment, the USN loses its recon advantage.

Again, Not saying its more desirable over a strong (six) CV plan, just that it might be preferable to the weak (four) CV plan.

[Apollo11]

Hi all,

ORIGINAL: mdiehl
I'm not following your logic on this one. I do not understand how Midway, being smaller, is easier to hit. The theoretical limit of naval gunfire accuracy does not magically increase just because the target gets smaller. Were that true, PT boats would be the easiest thing imaginable to sink. Having an atoll for a target rather than an airfield on a large island just means that alot of your shells land in the water rather than in the jungle.

The Midway atoll as a whole was just one giant airbase.

Therefore almost any HE shell hitting ground would explode and whirl fragments all over the place (drilling nice holes in anything that stands in open).

The Japanese ships can observe if they are hitting water or sea and thus insure that their shells land on Midway itself (and see above again) do damage that is almost certain.

Guadalcanal island was "pure" large island and very forested. Also the CACTUS airbase was inland and not easily visible from sea.

Thus if Japanese were able to hit Guadalcanal - how would they have problems hitting Midway?

The evidence against you is the examples of naval bomardments that did occur and did not destroy all parked aircraft, and the complete absence of examples in which naval bombardment did destroy all parked aircraft.

Was there any historic attempt against functional airbase on such small place using naval bombardment?

Do you know that for a fact (when you boldly claim something is impossible by default)?

That's not correct. The USN bombardments proved, repeatedly, that after the first couple of rounds and resultant smoke, debris, dust etc, all bets are off as to whether or not you will hit much, unless you are using centimetric radar-directed gunfire.

Again please read what I wrote above.

The Midway is so small that every HE shell hitting ground explodes and whirls fragments all over the place.

Those fragments can (and will do) damage to anything that stands in open.

There is not even the slightest reason to believe that all exposed objects would be destroyed or even damage. All available evidence contradicts your basic premise.

You don't believe that 16 inch HE shells produce large explosions and throw dangerous high speed fragments all over the place?

Well... in that case I rest my case...


Leo "Apollo11"


P.S. [Edit]
You still didn't answer my question regarding your claim of 400+ nm strike capabilities of US dive bomber / torpedo bomber aircraft which I told you were only theoretical ranges and never actually used...

[Mike Scholl]

It's and old but true axiom that "VICTORY GOES TO THE SIDE THAT MAKES THE
FEWEST MISTAKES". Nobody's perfect, and even the best (or worst) plan will
still be altered to some extent by "blind chance"

US planning at Midway was more "realistic" than that of the Japanese (they had
a much better idea overall of what was happening). In that sense it was less
succeptable to "chance factors". But the "Luck" that was involved in the final
outcome definately was going the "Allied way". Japanese search was bedeviled
with small technical difficulties (a reflection of the "offensive nature" of Japanese
tactics---an A/C "wasted" on search wasn't available to smash the target. If they
had used a more reasonable number of search planes, the small problems wouldn't
have mattered). The US Dive Bombers caught a real break in the timing of their
arrival..., a break "paid for" by their torpedo squadrons.

A game system that tries to make a "Midway-Type" outcome likely would be a
warped one. Like most "meeting engagements" it should have an uncertainty
to how it will unfold. I think a realistic appraisal would give the US a 3:2 "chance"
of a "favorable outcome", and the Japanese perhaps a 1 in 3 chance of the same;
all other results being a draw. To Nimitz, this seemed a worthwhile gamble.
Yamamoto didn't realize the "poker game" had already started, and so was com-
mitting his "chips" to the pot on a "blind draw".

[Apollo11]

Hi all,

ORIGINAL: Adnan Meshuggi

Hehe... sure, you are wrong and he is right... or you are an axis fanboy...

so it is useless to talk with him. If you give him provement that his facts are wrong, you lie.... if you distrust his sources, you are a rookie...

just him is the one who know everything. If you try to discuss things, as soon as someone mention only in a very small way that the USN/US Army/US Airforce wasn´t allways the best and in a game it should be so and so, because otherwise it is ahistorical...

sad, because he could do a great job, he has a lot of knowledge, sadly he just use it to prove his own reality....[;)]

Nah... I enjoy exchanging thoughts and ideas... [:)][;)][8D]


Leo "Apollo11"


P.S. Did't you have different nickname before?

[Apollo11]

Hi all,

ORIGINAL: Mogami

How can you factor in enemy mistakes in advance (unless you are Germany and the enemy commander is Gamelin)

This one is great - thanks Mogami!

It's really worth of a tag line!!! [;)]


Leo "Apollo11"