Never Thought I'd Start Another One - tc464 (A) vs. Mike (J)

[Mike Solli]

17 Oct 42 - Very quiet turn today.

Sub War

Nothing to report.

5 Fleet

Nothing to report.

4 Fleet

Nothing to report.

SE Fleet

The invasion fleets are just west of the Kurile Islands. Still undetected.

SRA

Nothing to report.

Burma

The front line is fully stocked with supply. Finally!

The troops that were isolated were pulled back to Cox's Bazaar and are all stocked with supply. The infantry divisions drew replacements from Akyab. Maybe that doesn't count as drawn supply?

Akyab has 6900 supply at the base with another 68k debarking from ships (down 1800).

Cox's Bazaar has 20 supply at the base and 7200 supply on ships (down 650) with another convoy arriving tomorrow.

Things are easing here finally.

China

Ted has a handful of I-15s stationed at Lanchow harassing my troops with 100 kg bombs (about on par with the Lily). I split my Zeros in theater and sent 8 to say HI to them. Two of 3 were shot down.

Something interesting is happening at Changsha. Some or all of the garrison of 125k troops are evacuating the city to the NW, toward 3 more stacks all in a row. The total number of Chinese troops here are about 250k troops. I'm surprised at that. If he fully evacuates (or I take the city from any troops left behind) that'll free up 4 divisions that are currently guarding the perimeter. I'm not moving those divisions yet. I want to see what's left behind. It would be absolutely outstanding if he completely evacuates Changsha. Then I would get the infrastructure (starting damaged) with no additional damage and get the forts. Very curious about this. I'm going to try and surround the troops with only Changteh controlled by the Chinese here. It has 20 LI. Yeah, that's enough to feed 250k troops.

Other Stuff

Reinforcement
TK Arita Maru, Type-1 TM, 8150 capacity, 14 kts. It's headed to Fusan to haul fuel/oil. I'm hauling fuel and resources as fast as I can, but oil is still lagging. Once that picks up, it appears that the land MSR may be up and running. Fusan't port is at 7.72. It's getting there.

[Mike Solli]

18 Oct 42 Quiet - the lull before the storm.....

Sub War

Nothing to report.

5 Fleet

The invasion fleets are moving. There are additional forces out of the picture.

Kuriles Islands.jpg (145.78 KiB) Viewed 52 times

4 Fleet

Nothing to report.

SE Fleet

Nothing to report.

SRA

Nothing to report.

Burma

The supply situation is progressing nicely. While Cox's Bazaar still has no supply at the base, the troops at the front and at Cox's Bazaar are mostly good with supply. The troops at the base are resting, recovering morale and taking on replacements.

Akyab has 8600 supply at the base and is expanding the port. It's currently at 1.37.

China

Here's a shot of what's going on at Changsha:

Changsha.jpg (280.32 KiB) Viewed 52 times

All but 15k troops have left Changsha and some or all still in Changsha are moving. You can see my 4 divisions are moving into the city. They're all rested and at full strength and will attack if they need to push out the rabble. I also have some garrison troops headed there to ransack the place, freeing up 4 good divisions.

Other Stuff

Reinforcement
111 Naval Construction Battalion (4 Fleet), was originally slated for Saipan, but will be diverted to the Aleutians in a couple of days.

[PaxMondo]

I'll definitely consider that when the time comes. When KB is sitting playing pinochle (most of the time), I fill them out with rookies and let them train. I'll pull them out when they actually have to earn their rice balls.

I used to do the same thing. But especially when the N1K shows up, I want numerical as well as qualitative advantage. Until mid-44 I simply don't have enough IJN fighter groups available, so I grab a few of the KB groups ... just a thought.

[PaxMondo]

... I actually have 18 R&D factories each for the Frank, Sam and George.

Wow, you really went 'all-in'. I've never done this before. Why? I'm a supply conservation nerd. I hate to change AC factories after game start. As you know, tons of supply involved. So, now I'm REALLY watching to see how this plays out. It may change my thinking ...

I figured the major difference between the George and Frank was the current operational date, 7/43 vs. 1/44. I thought R&D repairs speeded up the closer you got to the operational date. No empirical evidence, just what it "looks like" and what I've heard.

It does. I've done a ton of testing on this and I think even Michael confirmed it once. There's a lot of randomness, but clearly as the due date approaches, the probability of a repair increases. In the last month the probability is something like 50% +/- 25% each day ... the +/-25% is the variance from one factory to the next; it might even be higher more like 33% or even more.

[Mike Solli]

... I actually have 18 R&D factories each for the Frank, Sam and George.

Wow, you really went 'all-in'. I've never done this before. Why? I'm a supply conservation nerd. I hate to change AC factories after game start. As you know, tons of supply involved. So, now I'm REALLY watching to see how this plays out. It may change my thinking ...

I figured the major difference between the George and Frank was the current operational date, 7/43 vs. 1/44. I thought R&D repairs speeded up the closer you got to the operational date. No empirical evidence, just what it "looks like" and what I've heard.

It does. I've done a ton of testing on this and I think even Michael confirmed it once. There's a lot of randomness, but clearly as the due date approaches, the probability of a repair increases. In the last month the probability is something like 50% +/- 25% each day ... the +/-25% is the variance from one factory to the next; it might even be higher more like 33% or even more.

Those 54 R&D factories were set within the first week, of the game. None of them will ever change. Eventually, each of those will have 18 operational factories. The big decision is when the first George and Frank model become operational, how many will I pull out and how many will remain. Every 3 R&D factories at that point will advance the cause by 180% a month with the engine acceleration. I'll decide when it gets close. If I leave 15 in R&D, that'll advance them 9 months every month. If I didn't bother with the first model George, for example and get it, say 2/43, then the 18 R&D factories would advance 10.8 months every month. The N1K2 would arrive 2 months later. I have to figure out the logistics of the 3 fighters, their engines and the optimal production of each. Something to figure out later.

[Mike Solli]

19 Oct 42

Sub War

The Grampus surfaced at Babeldaob, shelled an xAKL and submerged. She'll later drop mines there that a couple of AMc stationed there will promptly sweep. I have those little tuna boats in just about every important port I have. They're invaluable. By the way, she only caused 3 points on sys damage on the xAKL. This base has no mines. That needs to be rectified. The problem is that I've just about run out of ACMs to tend the fields. I have a spare at Truk that I'm sending to Babeldaob. I've found a few ships that can be converted, but it takes 15 days.

5 Fleet

The Adak invasion TFs are 2 days out from landing. None of them are spotted yet. The lead TFs are 7 hexes NW of Attu.

4 Fleet

Nothing to report.

SE Fleet

Thirty-two B-17E/Fs hit Tulagi's port again. The port is trashed so it really didn't do much more: 95-74-28. The port is trashed, but I have 4k supply there and the airfield is slowly being repaired.

Thirty-five Nicks ambushed 17 P-39Ds shooting down 4 and damaging a bunch at Salamaua.

SRA

Nothing to report.

Burma

The supply situation improves daily. The total supply on ground at Cox's Bazaar and Akyab is 5800 with an additional 57k on ships unloading. Another 17k is two days out from Cox's Bazaar.

China

There are still 8 Chinese units leaving Changsha. My 4 divisions are still moving in. They're still 2 or more days out.

Other Stuff

Reinforcement
TK Gyoshin Maru, Type-1 TM, 8150 capacity, 14 kt, headed to Fusan to haul oil/fuel.

[Mike Solli]

20 Oct 42 - The quiet before the storm...

Sub War

Nothing to report.

5 Fleet

Tomorrow, something is going to hit the fan.

4 Fleet

Nothing to report.

SE Fleet

Over 3 raids, 37 B-17E/Fs caused exactly 1 port hit. Why? It's already trashed: 95-74-26.

SRA

Nothing to report.

Burma

Finally, Cox's Bazaar has some supply at the base, all of 1624, but it's definitely better than 20. Every unit at Cox's Bazaar and the front line have sufficient supply and replacements are being drawn as well. Akyab is up to 22k supply at the base. I think I'm over the hump, at least for a while.

China

Really great news! Ted completely evacuated Changsha! I think that was an error on his part. He should have left something in there so I would be force to attack it. I have 2 divisions there but am not attacking. I'm hoping it flips. Then there won't be any additional damage to the infrastructure and (at the time I thought) the forts would remain. I now know the answer to that but I'm not saying yet.

Other Stuff

Nothing to report.

[Mike Solli]

21 Oct 42

Sub War

Nothing to report.

5 Fleet

So it begins! Something I realized yesterday was that I forgot to put DMS in any of the TFs and figured there would be mines. Well, I was right. I think there a ton of mines and here are the victims (everyone ate one mine):

CA Chokai: 7-14(6)1-0 - she'll stay with her transports.
xAP Kitano Maru: 14-33(27)-2(1)-0 - she'll stay and finish dropping off her troops.
xAP Hakozaki Maru: 3-36(28)-0-0 - she'll stay and finish dropping off her troops.
DD Akatsuki (Akatsuki class): 20-95(75)-24(15)-0 - she'll attempt to evacuate, but it isn't looking good.
DD Hibiki (Akatsuki class): 18-62(53)-1(1)-0 - flip a coin on this one.
DD Yugiri (Shikinami class): 30-70(54)1-0 - flip a coin on this one too.

I figured there would be defenses. Mines I didn't plan for, but I expected some CD guns, which I am happy to say aren't there. I can afford to lose some DDs. I've only lost 3 DDs and a TB prior to this operation.

The BB TF (all 7 BB, Kitakami and Oi, 10 Shiratsuyus) steamed into Adak's port and sank an xAK with 2 salvos from Hyuga. They managed to miss all the mines, fortunately. They were intentionally not set to bombard, just in case their big guns were needed for some enemy warships. I'll use them when needed, usually in pairs for bombardment and then send them to Paramushiro-jima where I have 2 AKEs to replenish their main guns. I'm not sure that'll work though because there's only a level 1 port there. I know they will replenish the big guns at Etorofu, but that's a lot farther away.

Here's the surprise. I expected a lot of enemy troops, but not this many combat troops:

40th Infantry Division
53rd (Sep) Infantry Regiment
87th Mountain Regiment
34th Infantry Regiment
58th (Sep) Infantry Regiment
28th Base Group
202nd Coast AA Regiment
54th Base Group
154th Field Artillery Battalion
Eleventh USAAF
203rd Coast AA Regiment
501st Coast AA Regiment
NoPac Area
215th Coast AA Regiment
63rd Coast AA Regiment
5th Port Maint Engineer Battalion
802nd Aviation Engineer Battalion
210th Coast AA Regiment
49th Base Group

I see 1 division, 4 infantry regiments and an artillery battalion. I am landing 2, 4 and 38 Divisions today with a couple of tank regiments, a heavy mortar regiment and 16 Army HQ over the next couple of days. There's more available later.

The one good thing is that his 4 infantry regiments probably won't be able to stand up well to assaults by divisions. And his 40 Division has an AV of 240. It's going to be drag out fight.

Also, he has a LOT of AAA units and 48 fighters on the island (along with some auxiliary aircraft, probably PBYs), but no bombers. I'll keep KB away from that. That's a great way to lose irreplaceable aircraft. Here's a screen shot of today. Don't be too concerned with my AV. There still are a lot of troops to land:

Adak.jpg (1.1 MiB) Viewed 11 times

Why am I doing this? I've read too many AARs that ended in an early Allied victory where the Allies pushed everything due west from the Aleutians and invaded Hokkaido. I won't let that happen. Yes, I try to conserve my IJN, but you have to use it some time. This, I believe, is one of those times.

4 Fleet

Nothing to report.

SE Fleet

Tulagi's trashed port attracted 34 B-17E/Fs. That port is still trashed and the airfield is slowly rebuilding: 95-74-24.

SRA

Nothing to report.

Burma

I saw something new today. B-24Ds showed up in this theater! A dozen of the beasts escorted by 10 P-40Es went after Akyab. I think it was the port, but I'm not sure because no damage was caused. A full sentai of Tojos met them. When it was all said and done, 5 Warhawks and 4 Liberators were shot down with another of each apparently op losses. The Tojos had 6 damaged planes, but are able to put another 42 in the air tomorrow. (There happened to be 6 reserve planes.). Banzai!

China

Changsha flipped! And I do keep the 6 forts! The infrastructure was trashed from the beginning of the game, but I didn't destroy any more (I don't think):

Manpower: 2(1)
Resources: 17(63)
HI: 0(22)
LI: 25(135)

Nothing will be repaired. I was kind of disappointed that there wasn't any HI.

Other Stuff

The A6M5b R&D advanced to 3/44 and is expected to become operational mid 2/43.

I forgot to mention that the last 4 Ha-45 engine factories completed their repairs 5 days ago. (Forgot to note it.) Their monthly production is 870, or 19 a day with 2 being used to accelerate the two completed N1K1-J George R&D factories. Interestingly, there a 1/30 chance that any one factory produces an extra engine (Random number between 1 & 30 in the calculation). I've had that happen once so far. With 6 factories, that's a 20% chance with lesser chances for more than 1 extra. As of 22 October, there are 915 engines in the pool.

I'm still burning a ton of supply on various factories:

Ha-32: 105(15)
Ha-35: 355(5)
Ha-35: 85(5)
A6M5: 27(33)
Ki-45 KAIa: 55(5)

I guess it's not a ton, but it is 5k supply a day. Can't wait for it to be finished. Five days and it drops to 2k a day.

With the 100k supply I've sent to Burma and all the supply burnt on the Ha-45 factory expansion, my supply has been hurting. I currently have a total of 2,644,012 supply in the empire. In addition, there's another 170k supply on ships heading to various places. I hope that my supply situation begins to improve soon.

My goal is to not expand more than 5k a day, at least until the Ha-43 finishes R&D. Then that'll spend 6k a day until I get it to whatever it is I need.

Interestingly, my empire fuel situation is hovering between 4.7-4.75M and is pretty stable. With the Aleutians operation kicking off, I anticipate a drop, but I'm not concerned with that.