Never Thought I'd Start Another One - tc464 (A) vs. Mike (J)

[Mike Solli]

18 Feb 43

CL Oyodo - This "little" CL is 10,252 tons. She's a biggun for a Japanese CL.

My most hated ship. So undergunned compared the USN ... only 6x6" guns ...

Yeah, crazy isn't it? That big? Why didn't they make her a conventional CA?

Definitely under gunned. I stick her with KB for AAA support.

[Mike Solli]

There was an old Avalon Hill game, Victory in the Pacific. In that game, my favorite CLs were Oi and Kitakami. They had massive torpedo capability.

Yep, I remember that game. Here, I don't upgrade them just to keep the torpedoes. Every upgrade reduces the number of torpedo tubes.

[PaxMondo]

There was an old Avalon Hill game, Victory in the Pacific. In that game, my favorite CLs were Oi and Kitakami. They had massive torpedo capability.

Yep, I remember that game. Here, I don't upgrade them just to keep the torpedoes. Every upgrade reduces the number of torpedo tubes.

I agree, in game, upgrading them is not wise. However, historically, they were not very seaworthy as built and the reloads were a fatal flaw in them and a few other classes as well (Mogami was another one). A shell hit would ignite the spare LL's and sink the ship ... but in game these flaws were not able to be modeled so the IJN get an Easter egg ....

[BBfanboy]

Haven't seen it mentioned, but wasn't Oyodo designed as a float plane carrier and command cruiser? It had a huge aft deck space for FPs and their fuel/ammo and an extra large bridge for the command staff.

[PaxMondo]

Haven't seen it mentioned, but wasn't Oyodo designed as a float plane carrier and command cruiser? It had a huge aft deck space for FPs and their fuel/ammo and an extra large bridge for the command staff.

extra large bridge is certainly true ... the IJN had CL's to be the command ships of DD TF's. That they were rarely used in this role is largely because the IJN suffered from a lack of DD's from the start of the war. As for the FP's .. maybe there was some original intent, but as built the capacity was only that of a normal IJN CA ... nothing exceptional.

[Mike Solli]

19 Feb 43

Sub War

Nothing to report.

5 Fleet

The bombardment and a shock attack go in tomorrow.

4 Fleet

Nothing to report.

SE Fleet

There was more action in the air over Russell Island. Nine Georges escorted 21 Sallies and were countered by 4 Wildcats. A Wildcat was shot down for no Japanese loss. Oh yeah, they hit jungle.

Then, 4 Georges and 9 Nicks met 14 Avengers escorted by 6 Wildcats and 10 Corsairs. One Nick (MIA) and 2 each Corsairs and Avengers were shot down. The Avengers hit jungle too.

Next came 36x 4E came in countered by a George and 3 Nicks. No losses on either side and the bombers hit, you guessed it, jungle.

I had focused on only Russell Island with recon and naval search and put 27 Nells on naval attack hoping they would go after shipping at Russell Island. Of course they went after Milne Bay and were shot up by fighters. Ten were shot down.

SRA

Nothing to report.

Burma

Nothing to report.

China

The artillery finally bombarded, but the Air Force decided to sit today out. The bombardment destroyed 43 squads.

There were a few days of no bombardment and it showed. Chinese AV actually increased from the last bombardment.

Raw AV:
Japan: 4836 (+~1200) - a couple divisions arrived.
China: 1845 (+58)
Enemy strength: 277k (+2k)
Enemy units: 87 units (no change)
Guns: 420 (+15)

Other Stuff

Reinforcement
281 Ku S-1, 36 Claudes, 13 Air Flotilla, I'm going to try training elite pilot to get their defense up to 70. We'll see how (or if) this works.

The N1K2-J George R&D advanced to 6/43 and is expected to become operational 3/43.
The Ha-43 engine R&D advanced to 10/43 and is expected to become operational 6/43.

[Mike Solli]

I watched one of my 5 year old grandsons play flag football this morning. It was like herding cats.

[Mike Solli]

20 Feb 43

Sub War

The Gudgeon torpedoed and sank an Aden class xAK south of Okinawa. She was hauling resources to Japan. So it begins...

5 Fleet

I had the entire bombardment fleet of 5 BB, 5 CA, 7 CL and 4 DD hit Adak to soften them up for the shock attack. I was concerned that the DDs would take some hits, but that didn't happen. I hoped it would be enough, but I had to wait the entire turn to find out.

So, the vaunted shock attack went in. The divisions in Adak are in pretty bad shape for the most part. A couple of them only barraged because their infantry component was basically non-existent.

The shock attack was a success, barely. I got 2.02:1 result. Whew! Here's the replay:

Ground combat at Adak Island (162,52)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 29147 troops, 467 guns, 96 vehicles, Assault Value = 509

Defending force 34622 troops, 757 guns, 489 vehicles, Assault Value = 353

Japanese adjusted assault: 772

Allied adjusted defense: 381

Japanese assault odds: 2 to 1 (fort level 0)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Adak Island !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), disruption(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
4597 casualties reported
Squads: 258 destroyed, 72 disabled
Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 54 disabled
Engineers: 19 destroyed, 28 disabled
Guns lost 57 (7 destroyed, 50 disabled)
Vehicles lost 4 (2 destroyed, 2 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
36164 casualties reported
Squads: 946 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 2417 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 140 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 561 (561 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 333 (333 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 19

Assaulting units:
2nd Division
9th Division
4th Division
38th Division
21st Div /3
16th Army
1st Art.Mortar Regiment

Defending units:
87th Mountain Regiment
34th Infantry Regiment
40th Infantry Division
53rd (Sep) Infantry Regiment
58th (Sep) Infantry Regiment
210th Coast AA Regiment
54th Base Group
154th Field Artillery Battalion
NoPac Area
Eleventh USAAF
202nd Coast AA Regiment
28th Base Group
215th Coast AA Regiment
5th Port Maint Engineer Battalion
501st Coast AA Regiment
802nd Aviation Engineer Battalion
63rd Coast AA Regiment
203rd Coast AA Regiment
49th Base Group

That's a LOT of units destroyed. Also, my losses weren't nearly as bad as the result said.

I captured about 60k supply and 10k fuel there. He must have started with a LOT of supply there.

Now, only Chungking is left to take, for now.

4 Fleet

Nothing to report.

SE Fleet

Six Georges met 12 Corsairs over Lunga. No clue what they were doing at Lunga. They were supposed to be over Rennell Island. I guess the islands all look the same from the air. Anyway, I lost a George (no pilot loss) to 3 Corsairs.

Twenty-one Sallies bombed Rennell Island, again hitting jungle.

Six Nicks met 25x 4E bombers over Rennell Island. This time, they disrupted a few squads.

I had set up a deliberate assault against the enemy troops at Rennell Island. I discovered that Ted flew in a slice of the 1 Australian Parachute Battalion. The attack did nothing but use precious supply. I don't think I'll be able to take the base back, but, I'm going to force him to push me off the dot hex.

SRA

Nothing to report.

Burma

Nothing to report.

China

Today's bombing and bombardment destroyed 59 squads. That's more like it!

Raw AV:
Japan: 5224 (+388) - Another division arrived.
China: 1791 (-54)
Enemy strength: 276k (-1k)
Enemy units: 87 units (no change)
Guns: 407 (-13)

The resting divisions at Neikiang began marching toward Chungking. I'll attack again when they arrive in a few days.

Other Stuff

Reinforcement
12 Ship Engineer Regiment, General Defense, will stay in the Home Islands.

I got confirmation that the xAP Mount Vernon sank on 29 Sep 42. She was HUGE at 18,450 tons and a capacity of 6700 troops and 1467 cargo. And she was loaded, on top of it. I-169 did the deed! She was caught down near Auckland.

[sfatula]

Congrats on Adak! Obviously, you were never gop\ing to run him out of supply, but at least you inherited it. That should set him back a little bit. Always nice to be advancing in 43. That last bombardment may have put you over the edge, that was close!

[PaxMondo]

I watched one of my 5 year old grandsons play flag football this morning. It was like herding cats.

Yeah, I can still remember my youngest son going through that in soccer ... they were like mackerel ... the swarm followed the ball wherever it went. Separation? Nah, they all went after the ball.

[PaxMondo]

20 Feb 43

Defending units:
87th Mountain Regiment
34th Infantry Regiment
40th Infantry Division
53rd (Sep) Infantry Regiment
58th (Sep) Infantry Regiment
210th Coast AA Regiment
54th Base Group
154th Field Artillery Battalion
NoPac Area
Eleventh USAAF
202nd Coast AA Regiment
28th Base Group
215th Coast AA Regiment
5th Port Maint Engineer Battalion
501st Coast AA Regiment
802nd Aviation Engineer Battalion
63rd Coast AA Regiment
203rd Coast AA Regiment
49th Base Group

That's a LOT of units destroyed. Also, my losses weren't nearly as bad as the result said.

I captured about 60k supply and 10k fuel there. He must have started with a LOT of supply there.

That is REALLY a LOT of USA units lost ... and his device replacements on a lot of those is really low ... the AA units might not be recovered until late '44. And all of those Army INF devices ... again, it will be a LONG time before he is able to re-build those units, and then he will need to train them up again .... wow!!! Great job.

Oh and 60K supply don't hurt!!!!



BANZAI!!!!

[Mike Solli]

21 Feb 43

Sub War

The I-23, keeping an eye on Noumea, caught and sank an SC. She's shifting her position. Her job is to watch, not engage.

I got lazy and paid for it. The I-21, returning from patrol off the US west coast, moved past Pearl Harbor and was caught and sunk by an Allied ASW TF. Back down to only 3 Glen subs working the US west coast.

5 Fleet

I'm pulling out ground forces that I don't want to leave as garrisons, and am working on repairing trashed Adak. KB 1 and the fast oiler TF are headed to Yokohama for replenishment, fuel and repairs. The BB TF left yesterday after their successful bombardment.

I'm glad I pulled out all the stops in the shock attack yesterday. Any little change would have reduced the odds below 2:1. Little things like using the DDs to bombard, shock attacking with everything that had infantry and all the other little things made it a successful attack. That was really close.

4 Fleet

Nothing to report.

SE Fleet

I have Georges and Nicks flying LRCAP over Russell Island, but they migrated to Lunga. Turned out to be a good thing. Six Georges and 15 Nicks caught a Dauntless squadron escorted by 9 Wildcats and 8 Corsairs and mauled them. Enemy losses were 2 Wildcats, 3 Corsairs and 11 of 12 Dauntlesses. I lost a George shot down (no pilot loss) and a Nick op loss (KIA). It appears that the enemy fighters in this AO are starting to take some serious losses. My fighters are doing well, but getting tired and their morale is sliding. I am swapping out air units with rested units at Truk. It would be nice to have 1-2 more for both the IJAAF and IJNAF, but they are hard to come by. I need to scour the rear areas to find something.

Russell Island is definitely going to remain American. In addition to the Marine and Aussie paratroopers, the 145 Infantry regiment landed there. My paratroopers are doomed. I'm going to see if I can pull some of them out by flying boat.

A few days ago, I spotted some US CVEs at Luganville and sent KB 2 from Truk to try and catch them. I debated it a couple of days and that turned out to be too late. They steamed NW yesterday and arrived at Rennell island where there are 65 fighters and 48 bombers stationed there. It's not worth trying to get them. Had I pulled the trigger when I first saw them, I'd have caught them at Luganville. I'll keep KB 2 out of flying boat range and hope to get a shot at them if they head south.

There is a lane free of enemy naval search south of Nauru and Ocean Islands. I think that is because I took Baker and Canton Islands early in the war. He hasn't taken them back so there is no enemy naval search in that area. Both of those bases have an SNLF company and level 3 forts, along with mines and a midget sub. It's not a lot, but I can't afford to put more troops there.

SRA

Nothing to report.

Burma

Nothing to report.

China

The bombing/bombardment destroyed 38 squads today.

Raw AV:
Japan: 5311 (+87) - Stronger than the last attack (4514). I now have 19 infantry divisions with another arriving in a couple turns.
China: 1763 (-28) - Weaker than the last attack (1834).
Enemy strength: 272k (-4k)
Enemy units: 87 units (+1) - I'll see tomorrow what arrived/returned.
Guns: 367 (-40)

The rested division will arrive in Chungking in about 3 turns and then the attack will happen after that.

Other Stuff

The B6N2 Jill becomes operational. Three size 30 factories become operational and the remaining 4 will advance to the B6N2a R&D. It is at 11/44 and is expected to become operational 12/43. Then those 4 R&D factories will switch to a different R&D. Maybe the Judy?

[PaxMondo]

21 Feb 43
Then those 4 R&D factories will switch to a different R&D. Maybe the Judy?

Depends upon how many of the Judy you want to build and how fast. I don't like switching factories too much ... $$$$ to do it. So, I tend to think it through. The only thing I build a ton of is fighters .... especially late war. Sure, still building everything else, but compared to fighters, not nearly the same numbers at all. So, rather than having so many factories idle, I tend to put them on fighters.

So in this case, maybe J7W? Or maybe you want the Ki-93? not a bad bird ... but 2E and good for escort except I don't do a lot of that in the end game. .... maybe Ki-94? A 1E IJA fighter that is well over 400 mph ... not the best armament though ...

[Mike Solli]

21 Feb 43
Then those 4 R&D factories will switch to a different R&D. Maybe the Judy?

Depends upon how many of the Judy you want to build and how fast. I don't like switching factories too much ... $$$$ to do it. So, I tend to think it through. The only thing I build a ton of is fighters .... especially late war. Sure, still building everything else, but compared to fighters, not nearly the same numbers at all. So, rather than having so many factories idle, I tend to put them on fighters.

So in this case, maybe J7W? Or maybe you want the Ki-93? not a bad bird ... but 2E and good for escort except I don't do a lot of that in the end game. .... maybe Ki-94? A 1E IJA fighter that is well over 400 mph ... not the best armament though ...

Yeah, I don't much like changing factories either. I really like the J7W1 but 12/45 is so darn late. However many R&D factories I put into that is pretty much done for the game. I already have 54 factories dedicated to the George, Sam and Frank. The George is coming along nicely and the Frank still has only 5 factories finished but the Sam is just stalled. Its 18 factories are averaging only 13.1 with the high at 19. Putting factories into the J7W1 this early would make me crazy.

My supply is looking good having gone over 3.5 million a couple turns ago.

The reason why I'm considering the Judy is because I can convert R&D factories to the D4Y1 and get it up to 30 in 30 days then convert it to the Y2 R&D. I'm doing that with the old Glen factory right now. It's currently at 17(13). Three fully repaired R&D factories will just about cut the operational date in half. That would get me the Y3 by about Feb-Mar/44, kind of late. Six would be much better getting me the Y3 in late 43.

Just thinking. I still have time before I decide.

Just got the turn. Ted said he had almost 400k supply and over 300k fuel at Adak. He also said that he had the 41 Division there as well as the other units. He pulled it out a couple weeks before I attacked thinking I wasn't going to attack. If it had been there, I may never had taken it because all of the divisions I have there were in sad shape.

[sfatula]

So, is it the case that changing factories is cheaper than expanding an existing group, assuming same numbers of course? If the choice comes down to that, I always change what a group is making if I need more of something than originally planned.

[Mike Solli]

So, is it the case that changing factories is cheaper than expanding an existing group, assuming same numbers of course? If the choice comes down to that, I always change what a group is making if I need more of something than originally planned.

In order to increase a factory by 1, it costs 100 supply, 10 HI and 10 manpower, and you increase the factory size by 1, which is damaged. You then need to spend 1000 supply to repair it.

If you change a factory from one airframe to a different airframe that's not next in the upgrade path, it changes for free, but you lose 30-40% of the factory size.

Say you're changing a size 30 factory. It drops to ~18-21, so to get it back to 30, it'll cost 900-1200 supply, 90-120 HI and 90-120 manpower, plus 9-12k supply to repair it.

Looking at those costs, I try to minimize changing factories from one airframe to another. It is going to happen, but the less you do it, the better.

For example, I have 18x 30 George factories. Five are the K1 in production (but turned off because I have plenty right now). Thirteen are in K2 R&D. Soon, the K2 will become operational. At that point, I'll upgrade the 5 operational factories to the K2 and the 13 R&D factories will upgrade to the K5. When the K5 becomes operational, I'll set all 18 to produce the K5. Eventually, the Sam will become operational. It has 18 R&D factories. When it becomes operational, I will turn off George production for good. There's a good chance that many of those 18 factories never change. That would cost a lot of supply that I'll desperately need.

If I need more of something, I'll increase a factory that is already producing it. If I have a couple of factories producing something, I try to have one large and one small (always multiples of 30). If I stop producing that model and I need a factory for something new, I'll use the small one and let the large one sit.

[sfatula]

So, say you need 20 more Georges per month (just an example, that's likely not much but still), the costs are:

Increase factory by 20
2,000 supply, 200HI, 200 manpower.
To repair, add 20,000 supply
Total cost: 22,000 supply, 200HI, 200 manpower

Take a size 20 factory and retool
Say it drops to 12. Need 8 more
To get back to 20, 800 supply, 80HI, 80 manpower.
To repair adds 8,000 supply
Total cost: 8,800 supply, 80 HI, 80 manpower

If you take a size 30 you are not using and it drops to 20, you don't need to repair anything. Way cheaper.

Is this wrong?

I completely agree with proper planning, research to take advantage of factories not being damaged when they convert to production, following the chain or upgrades, etc, of course you are better off. Still, I see changing as a better deal by those numbers if absolutely needed.

[PaxMondo]

Your math is correct, but I have never in all my years of playing ever run a factory at less than 30 except for the Glenn. Building less than 1/day would mean to me an aircraft that I don't really need, so I wouldn't be building it.

I will build some factories to be quite large. Jake for example. I only build one factory, but will take it to 90 at least, and sometime 120. why? only using one factory location allows me to keep other factory sites as RnD for other airframes. There are several others I do the same. I try to never change factories if I can help it. I consider it to be wasted supply and the IJ cannot afford to waste any supply.

Really far out RnD projects like Sam or J7W require a LOT of factories to work, 12 at a minimum, 15 is better, 18 ... The number crunchers that ran the odds back in the day missed a key facet of how the engine works: the odds of repair change each month for each factory. That means if you get a factory that repairs faster than normal have those odds for several months, it will fully repair far earlier than the number crunchers thought it could. once you have one factory repaired, the end date of the project starts to move in, and then the odds of repairs for all factories increases. Again, when a second factory repairs, it pulls in that end date even faster. With a second factory repaired with engine bonus you are moving the end date 1 month forward every 25 days. I've gotten A7M as early as 2/44 and as late as 10/44. 2/44 is a game changer. The only way I have ever beaten the Death Star is when the KB is fully loaded with A7M ... all fighters, the DS attack is defeated with minimal ship losses and the DS air groups are ravaged. Then the LBA attack gets through to the DS due to lack of fighters in the DS. And this only worked in early 44 ... later in 44 the allies have too many CVE's and can replenish their fighter losses and too many CV's as well.

[PaxMondo]

... but the Sam is just stalled. Its 18 factories are averaging only 13.1 with the high at 19.

Sadly, you're having bad luck with the Sam. You haven't had a factory (or 2) repeatedly get the higher odds for repair, they're all moving about the same. With your George/Frank RnD you saw that a couple of factories leapt ahead with repair and then brought all of the rest up much quicker.

It happens, sadly. But you never know, your Sam could still leap ahead. You don't have engine bonus available yet, so .....

[GrosserKreuzer]

[...]

For example, I have 18x 30 George factories. Five are the K1 in production (but turned off because I have plenty right now). Thirteen are in K2 R&D. Soon, the K2 will become operational. At that point, I'll upgrade the 5 operational factories to the K2 and the 13 R&D factories will upgrade to the K5.
[...]

What is the reason to let all 5 of the K1 factories sit idle? I would understand leaving ~2 turned off on the K1 in case you loose more of them than expected to be able to restart some production, but do you need all of the normal production as a reserve? The other turned off factories could help advancing the K2 (and thereby the research start for the K5) at least a little bit and then stay on K2 production, or am I missing something?