Moses vs WITP_Dude--China AAR

[Zeta16]

ORIGINAL: WiTP_Dude

Why would Chungking have an operational airfield? It's not too difficult for the Japanese to keep bombing it until it can't be used any more. As for air lifting supply, it is not going to be enough to feed 6000 assualt points. The Japanese may even be able to put a Zero long range cap over the place to shoot down any airlift. As for level 9 forts, those can be taken down over time with attacks.

He knows what he is talking about. The forts will come down.

[Gen.Hoepner]

Interesting AAR. I do not know exactly, but i have the feeling that with 1.40 patch( even if playing a 1.30 started match) chinese armies are more effective. I'm prooving this on my own skin in my courrent pbem game. Allied player is setting up a offensive defence in China and , by the end of dec 41, has already sieged Canton and Nanning, giving me a lot of Headaches also in the area of Homan. If well played China probably cannot stand for 3 years of war, but can drain a lot of japanese troops/supplies and pilots, which is, in the end, a way to win the war for the allies

[moses]

In reply to Sveint:

A early Chinese retreat is only low risk for Japan. Once you are down to the three cities around Chunking you only have 900 resourse centers. The Burma road will be cut if the Jap player is at all competant and then those 900 resourse centers are all you have. You might airlift some supply in but once Burma falls it won't be possible to get more then a trickle of supplies in this way.

900 resourse centers will not support the chinese army. Plus Japan can bomb these resourse centers quite easily and the chinese AF even with the AVG will not be up to the task of stopping them. For example say in May 42 operations in the SRA are at a pause. I can quickly transfer 6-8 bomber squadrens and 3-4 Zero squadrens to China and bomb the snot out of Chunking or Kumming for a week and then tranfer the planes back to the SRA. Now you have less supply.

A Chinese strategic bomber offensive out of Chunking is a joke. The Chinese force is laughably unable to conduct offensive operations even if they could be supplied.

Chungking does not have to be taken. Once Japanese forces are in the hex to stay the game is over. All production stops and its just a matter of time.

[sveint]

Well at this point I guess I'll call it a difference of opinion.

Here's my view on China:

An early offensive is fine, as long as you don't lose too many units. The goals should be primarily to destroy as much industry as possible, secondarily to tie up Japanese forces and make them burn supplies. Early on I have one RAF HQ walk to China, and the Phillipine air units transfer in to China (this gives you an authorized strength of 60 B-17e fortresses). Sooner or later you'll be forced to retreat to the interior, when you do the objective becomes to hold Chunking while forcing the Japanese to suffer losses and burn supplies.

On a side note, closing the Burma road is not easy for Japan, it's quite possible to keep the road open far into 1942 (until DEI falls or Japan committs enough troops). I dig in Chinese troops in Mykit.. (sp?) from the start.

[BraveHome]

ORIGINAL: sveint

The only problem is that isn't going to hold for too long. Eventually the Japanese can wear you out.

More like the Japanese will wear themselves out. Unless China has lost half its troops at Sian/Yenan.

Unless the Allied commander allows encirclement, that is the likely scenario. Russian defense in depth a tried/true means of inviting overextension.

[WiTP_Dude]

ORIGINAL: BraveHome

Unless the Allied commander allows encirclement, that is the likely scenario. Russian defense in depth a tried/true means of inviting overextension.

Can you explain further why this is the likely scenario? Have you taken into your calculations that the Japanese get nearly 20 additional divisions as reinforcements in the China theater alone? The Chinese only get a single cavalry unit at the beginning of the scenario. This alone is going to vastly increase the Japanese advantage over time.

Now when you factor in the loss of several supply sources for the Chinese, it is they who will starve, not the Japanese. There will be no overextension. The garrision requirements are very small and usually only consist of a base force or infantry regiment. I really can't see any way for the Chinese to last to far into 1944 against an opponent who is trying to defeat them.

[BraveHome]

ORIGINAL: WiTP_Dude

Can you explain further why this is the likely scenario? Have you taken into your calculations that the Japanese get nearly 20 additional divisions as reinforcements in the China theater alone? The Chinese only get a single cavalry unit at the beginning of the scenario. This alone is going to vastly increase the Japanese advantage over time.

Now when you factor in the loss of several supply sources for the Chinese, it is they who will starve, not the Japanese. There will be no overextension. The garrision requirements are very small and usually only consist of a base force or infantry regiment. I really can't see any way for the Chinese to last to far into 1944 against an opponent who is trying to defeat them.

Your wisdom/experience in this game surely far exceeds mine, so I cannot comment on how the 'game' will play into 44/45. However, I was referring to R/L strategies adopted successfully by both the Russians (v. Germany) and the Allied Pacific command in WWII. The long-range strategic goal of the Allied command (although tactical differences were voiced) was to tie up Japan in China long enough for the Allies to catch and surpass them logistically in the Pacific theatre. If divisions and supply are being spent there, they're not being spent elsewhere.

I don't deny that Chinese 'feints' into any perceived Japanese weaknesses can be beneficial, so long as the overall Allied strategy is maintained. Of course this means the other Allies must do their part to keep the Japanese honest in every theatre so they cannot easily/quickly redeploy divisions allocated elsewhere to focus solely on this part of the campaign.

As for the Chinese rolling over:

"A little I'm hurt, but yet not slayne. I'll but lye down and bleed awhile, and then I'll rise and fight again." (Barton)

[moses]

I see that the problem is that you are refering to real life and not how the game plays. Here are some facts that I see as critical to the retreat strategy. These are based on the idea of a fairly early retreat toward chunking.

1.) Production:
A. The three cities (Chungking, Kumming and Chengtu produce 900 resourses and have 400 industry for a maximum monthly production of 1300 times 30=39,000 supply pts.
B. 500 pts daily via the Burma rd gives 15000 supply pts monthly.
C. Air supply doesn't move much but lets say 100 per day=3000 per month.
Total is 57,000 supply pts perr month for China.

2.) Usage:

A. 72 Corps using 650 sp per month (at complete rest) is 650 times 72=46,800 sp.
B. 9 ind divs 9 times 300=2700sp.
C I calculate the 36 HQ's and 17 Base force require 7,800 sp per month.
Total is 57,300 per month.

Even with forces at complete rest China is running a supply debit if only those three cities are producing.

When forces are actually fighting supply requirments double.

This does not even mention supply used for air forces, unit replacement, repair of facilities etc.

Not a single AAR that I have read suggests that anyone has had success holding open the Burma road when Japan decides to take it. Once Singapore falls Japan will easily have the troops to move north to cut the road.

Once the Burma road is cut your supply production drops by 15,000 per month. Plus it won't be easy to maintain large air resupply since Japan can now bomb Ledo.

If Japan occupies (does not have to capture) any of your three producing cities supply production at that location stops.



Japan has no similar supply problems. Sending 20 divisions 300 miles by road is not the problem in the game that it could be IRL. The strategy for Japan would be to just concentrate his force and move into one of you producing cities. By just sitting there and exchanging bombardments production stops at that location and all chinese units have their supply requirements doubled. Slowly but surely the Chinese will crumble.

My conclusion is that the only chance China has is to fight and try to save at least a few added production locations and to try and retreat a significant Japanese formation. It may be a longshot but at least it offers some hope of success.

[BraveHome]

A very cogent analysis! Being new to the game, I have not yet gotten that far into the campaign (to see the Chinese shrivel up and waste away). But it offers me hope in my first PBEM (as the Japanese).

I'd be interested to know others' thoughts on their succesful prosecution/defense of China...

[sveint]

tm.asp?m=700658
I play the Allies against Mogami. Chinese occupied cities are rubble and Sian/Yenan are Chinese as May starts. China has lost quite some troops during the offensives but supply is NOT a problem (I have a stockpile). Heavy bombers are working out of Chunking.

Here's what Mogami said about China in the game:

Hi, If I hear one more person complain how easy the Chinese are I'll throw up.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

tm.asp?m=700632
I play Japan against AndyMac. Japan has cleared the railroads but making any sort of inroad into the interior is extremely slow and far too expensive. Japan has elected to dig in and send what troops can be spared to Burma.

I forsee that in almost all PBEM games between 2 oppnents that aren't new to the game or playing their first PBEM, there will be a standoff in China.

[Oliver Heindorf]

I can only tell from my game with sveint. we played from 1.2 a big one. I play allies. just defending the cities wasnt a brilliant idea. He trapped me around and killed HUGE amount of soldiers.

I agree with sveint's formula : Loose china = loose russia = loose inidia = loose the war.

I dont know what the mogami's quote means but I think land combat is made too easy for the japs and imho, it is the most unrealistic part of witp. imho, those big areas has nothing to do in a nyval game but that is a different story. imho it should have been handled like gary did in second front and western front ( you need a certain amount of troops off map, they suck supply etc. )

off to play HL2 now [:D]

svein : turn is in your inbox mate

[Feinder]

This is the -exact- same drum I've been saying for a month (ever since everyone started squawking that China was doomed to failure). SUPPLY IS THE KEY, THERE ISN'T SUFFICIENT SUPPLY TO SUSTAIN CHINA, EVEN AT PEACE. Even if nothing "bad" happens, China will starve itself to death in the current game engine.

Furthermore, to combat the however many IJA units that end up being added over time, you MUST draw the Chinese Rifle squads from the pool (600 a month is equvialnt top 2 whole Armies a month!). But you can't draw them because you can never attain the 2x supply level need to draw replacements.

I do think you've dramatically under-estimated what you can haul each day via air-tran however. Granted, my air-tran system is "substantially" more than anything that was historical.

Right now I've got someting on the order of
8 RAF med-bomber sqnds (BlenIV, BlenI, Hudsons, Beuforts)
8 Chinese med-bomber sqdns (I think it's 8, maybe 7)
3 RDAF transport sqdns
4 USAAF transport squdns

All flying supplies from India to China. The lift capacity is about 50,000 per day, not a month. Granted, I don't mess around with halvsies. It didn't take long to notice the that even the RDAF transport and the Chinese bombers weren't cutting it. Soon I had grabbed -every- RAF bomber, all of the "2/xx Flights" from Oz, and had the C-47s on the West Coast crated up. I my top pull thus far, has been 48 Rifle Squads in a day. The number squads drawn, is usually a good measure of your over-all supply situation. You've got average it out, but your air-tran is subject to weather. When it rains, you get zip. When good flying, you get to eat.

If you pull less than 10 squads in a day, you're withering on the vine. By default, you will only 2 - 3 day (if you bother to check, which nobody does). This is only adding a few here or there in your backfield (probably adding rifle squads to your BFs, where you least need them).

If you can pull 10 - 15 squads in a day, you're breaking even. Better to get this number up eventually, because otherwise, IJA with it's reinfocements, will eventually beat you.

20ish doing well. That means the majority of your bases have at least 2x supply. That's certainly enough to fight. If you get this, your pool isn't climbing, you've got enough bullets to fight, and you're replacing your losses.

25 or more draish is your gaining ground and actually fleshing out your Armies (since they start 250/400).

Like I said, my air-tran is about 50k a day and I pull an average of 25 squads a day. While I -can- draw 48 (record) in a day, the weather will ground you half the time. So if it aveages to 25 a day, you're doing well.

-F-

[moses]

Yes my analysis in previous post was based on the retreat strategy that many have argued for.

In your game vs. Mogami you certainly did not retreat and in fact it appears that Mogami did not even begin offensive ops in China until about 22 Feb. After this point you did not retreat but fought a forward defence which is, I believe, a correct strategy. Given two and a half months to redeploy,reduce disruption,gain experience, dig-in, and build up supplies China is quite a formidable force. If Japan is nice enough to give you this 2 and a half month time out then I suppose a chinese bomber offensive can be conducted. Most Japanese players will not be so kind.

In your game vs. Andy Mac it does not appear that it was ever your intent to conquer China. It is also clear that Andy Mac did not follow a strategy of withdrawl. It was a little hard to follow from the AAR's but there was fighting in Changsa and Hsinyang as late as April. So I assume, but am not sure, that Sien and North China were still held by China well into 1942.

My point is not that China is defensless but that he must fight as far forward as possible for as long as possible. It is also essential not to be reduced to the three production sites in the vicinity of Chungking. You're AAR's support the idea that forward defence is possible.

[moses]

I believe lift capacity is divided by 100 when doing air supply. So 50 K would deliver 500 supplies per day if every plane flew. So in you're example with supply flying every other day due to weather that gives 250 per day or 7500 per month. So if you make this kind of commitment to china you can increase the supply available in China by a slight amount.

[Oliver Heindorf]

Feinder, sorry for sounding stupid ( non native english-speaker )

you use land based bombers to tranfer troops to china ? or to tranfer supply ?

I thought only transports to those missions ?

thank you !

[sveint]

A forward defense is possible but hard to pull off (you can easily get cut off). For an inexperienced or first-time player I'd recommend a defend-withdraw strategy.

[moses]

To be clear all is not lost in China.

With Langchow and Sien held you get 14,400 supplies per month. And every turn you keep Yenam, Changsa and Wuchow operating gives you lots of supply. I also turn off replacements for my Corps units so that they do not burn as much supply as casualties are taken.

The goal would be to force Japan to spend several months fighting for Changsa, Wuhan, and Yenan. By this time China has redeployed all those units along the coast and has a bunch of smaller, more experienced corps formations to fight with. With a lower supply requirement and the supplies from Sien and Langchow in addition to those supplies from the Chungking area the supply situation might be stabilized and an effective defence established.

[Feinder]

[:-]

Ok. So I went back and added everything up. I wasn't accounting for the individual planes... [;)]

===

Japanese spies have somehow uncovered documentation as to which Allied squadrons are actually participating in "Operation Rice Drop". This huge airlift reprents anything that Prime Minster Feinder could grab. He's even got his eyes on a few sqdns of B-17s, but has feeling that Knavey won't let him have them...

4 Flgts Hudson (4x8x1600) = 51,200
2 Flgts Beufort V-IX (2x8x2000) = 32,000
1 Sqdn Beufort V-IX (16x2000) = 32,000

2 Sqdn Blen IV (2x16x1320) = 42,240
1 Sqdn Blen I (12x1000) = 12,000
1 Sqdn Blen 1 (16x1000) = 16,000

1 Sqdn Lock-212 (8x1000) = 8,000
1 Sqdn C-60(8x3000) = 24,000

1 Sqdn IL-4c (16x5510) = 88,160
4 Sqdn SB-2c (4x12x2205) = 105,840
*these sqdns have max at 16, but they're not fleshed out yet.

4 Sqdn C-47(4x16x10000) = 640,000

Total Lift Capacity = 1,051,440 units per turn

-THAT- his how much I'm hauling into China on a turn when it doesn't rain.

I have no idea how much supply that translates into, but that's what I'm doing.

[;)]

I'm not kidding when I talk about setting up a big air-tran net. It take a LOT to feed a billion Chinamen.

-F-

[BraveHome]

I can see I have some serious research to do in the AARs. I thank you all for your contributions!

[Feinder]

Oh, and Oliver...

The medium bombers only fly supply, they don't fly troops. Actually, none of my transports are flying troops (I need all Brits I have, in Burma/India). Everybody is just flying supplies. Starts at a few AFs in India, they connect to a few hubs in China. And within China, I have the shorter ranged planes to drop extra supplies on the units that are forward at bases where they're likely engaged in combat.

Of 1.1 million lift capacity, I'm probably actually dragging INTO China (from India) about 800,000 units (if everything flies). Again, rain, moral, whatever, I'm sure not everybody flies every day. Oh, and make sure your LBA is based at large enough AFs -and- put an RAF HQ there (otherwise, only 75% will fly). Like I said, I really don't know how much of that total lift capacity is actually making it into China (the bases suck the supply each turn, so it's not like I see a big pile accumulated somewhere). But however much supply it's tranlatng into, I'm pulling about 45 squads every other day, and THAT is successful. Check your "Chinese Rifle Squads used" for about about a week. That's usually a good inidicator of whether you're meeing your supply requirements or not. Again, the evidence that I can pull 45 squads, shows that most of my bases are at 2x supply, at the end of the turn, when replacements are drawn.

-F-