It is easy for Japanese PBEM Player to get 4 to 1 AV 0n 1 Jan 43?

[Sneer]

we can always discuss how realistic is using fresh captured singapore to launch 250k+ invasion on India but as far as we talk about game Japan can move fast and allies have low chances to disrupt offensive unless take catastrophic risk with carrier force.
first 3-5 month are free to Japan and should be used by player to take as much as possible

[Tom Hunter]

Over in my Lunacy AAR I discuss the Allies ability to concentrate force on a regular basis. I will post more there in the next half hour or so because I do not want to post my dispositions in that game on this thread.

I was a little concerned when Mogami started to write me about the experimental nature of his play, and specifically said "I don't have a lot of ego invested" this is often a sign that a person thinks they are losing, and will no longer be trying hard to win. The internal voice goes something like this: I have no ego involved, therefore I won't spend the time, and since I am not trying it is understandable that I would lose, so it does not count. Fortunately that is not the case here as can be seen from Mogami's recent email to me:

"Don't worry I am still trying for Auto Victory but I had to accept the fact
that "Plan A" has failed.
The basic concept was to free the 8000 Assualt points of Kwantung Army. That
is not going to happen in this game (nor in game with Oleg but I am about to
open war with Soviets with Nomad)
So I switch to "Plan B" in this game and in Oleg game.
Without the extra 10k in Assault Strength (6k from Kwantung and 4k from CEA)
The land battle in Asia/Burma/India is gone replaced by the moblie striking
power of IJN.
In a normal game I strive to be ready to open operations in Central/South
Pacific by 1 May 1942. In this game I will try to do it sooner. I don't
think I am telling you anything you don't already know.
The war is now up to the IJN and the USN/RN Japan will attempt to force the
issue before the Allied ship upgrades take effect.
Nothing has changed concerning the IJN other then fact that now it is the
main player rather then egual partner with IJ Army. (what ever the IJN does
it was going to do anyway)" -Mogami

As mentioned above I have often argued that the Allies should constantly battle with the Japanese as long as the conditions are favorable. Of course both sides make the conditions and sometimes, for example the recent Japanese raid on Noumea in the Lunacy game, they are not favorable but you have to fight anyway.

That said I feel the Allies have a very strong position and may be able to prevent auto victory. More on that in my AAR, I am sorry that I can't post it here, but it would spoil the suprise if I did.

[RUPD3658]

I think it can be done. This is why my opponant and I are going to override the autovictory for 1943.

I am very aggressive and he is very conservative. It is 01-15-1942 and I am up 10k to 4k. Singapore is mine and the PI should fall within the month. China is deadlocked but the Allies are running out of supply. I hold PM and Rabaul and am moving towards Noeuma.

The only major ships sunk are the Repulse and all the subs at Manilla. Add about 70-80 trasnports and 1200 points for bombing OZ and this is how I got here.

I think the game would be better if the auto victory did not kick in until 1944 or if they used the kill multiplier that was used in PacWar. In PacWar it was always 2:1 to win but after 01-01-1944 the Allied losses (A/C and LCU) were multiplied by 1.5 and 2.0 in 1945.

Overall it comes down to this. Even without the AV Japan has a deadline to have taken all it's objectives by late 42. After that it needs to dig in and hope to hold off the Allies. If Japan is not done attacking by this point the war is lost.

[mogami]

Hi, It cannot be done. Unless......The Allied player scores no points of his own. Now it is important to realize that it matters not one whit if Japan is 10 to 1 in July 1942 as long as it is less then 4 to 1 on 1 Jan 1943.
Japan does not really score points for taking some bases he SUBTRACTS them from Allied score. So in a game where score was Japan 16k Allied 4.25k and Japan captures Noumea the Japanese score would go up a little but Allied score would reduce by 1200.

Now if Japan takes Noumea before it can be defended it is one thing if the Allied players loses 40k troops as well that is another but if Japan grabs it in march 42 and in Nov 42 the Allied player retakes it killing 50,000 Japanese then it's capture hurt Japan and helped Allied player.

But no Japan can't score 4-1 unless the Allied player scores no points.
Bear in mind that even trival losses add up over time it they are a trend.
Operantionl loss of aircraft, Lossing a AK/AP per week without cause.
Lets say 10 aircraft per week to ops from flying too much without resting and 1 10 point ship per week from being carless.
520 points from AC and 520 points in ships=1040 Bonus points towards auto victory. (in reverse this loss can cost a Japanese auto victory)
Trival losses add up if they are a constant. (everyone will lose something from time to time to an "Aw crap"

In games where the Soviets are inactive their Op loss over time can amount to thousands of points. (So stand them airgroups down)

[Feinder]

I haven't gotten to '43 yet in any of my PBEM games. But even as an Allied fan-boy, I was gonna say that 4:1 is probably pretty tough for Japan. You'd really have to own/HOLD a lot of the mega-point bases to pull it off.

Judging 4:1 concern in March is no where near what the situation will be like in November. There are a lot of variables that can happen, and certainly a lot of Allied reinforcements. Even navy (im)balance discounted (Japan can certainly have more CV airpower in Nov. '42 than the Allies, esp if Allied player has lost CVs early on). Try to keep your the Allied Navies intact (I know, a lot of times easier said than done), and that helps to dictate how Japan CAN score points.

But the allies will -likely- start to see the point ratio slowly falling after about June/July. If anything, thru air campaign (assuming you have bases to launch from). Japan will rack up a lot of initial points thru Allied troop losses and base captures. But once Japan starts to slow down, the scales tilt back. I'm already seeing the tilt in my June '42 games. Allied LBA is key. Kill enemy planes, any way you can. Even consider a Japanese strike on a Allied TF. He sinks two 6 point DDs, for the loss of 4 bombers from Flak. That strike did NOT help the AV ratio. The DDs were worth 12 points, the the planes were worth 4. That's 3:1, and it didn't help him achieve 4:1 (except for the fact that the DDs are permanently destroyed, and the planes will be re-produced, albeit with worse pilots, and esier to kill). Training programs for Japan are worthless if you kill the planes and pilots the on the ground. Bomb the snot out of every AF within B-17 range. If your fighters are at losses 2:1 (against), as Allies you're actually gaining ground. And frankly, by June, my air losses in most of my games are 1:1 (and even better in one game).

-F-