Hawaii threatened. What to do?

[moses]

Original: Feinder

And the Japanese planes and ships in the HI are just gonna sit there and let you take it?

All I'll say is, "Good luck with that."

[:D][:D][:D]Oh he may take it. Whats he going to do with it?????[:D][:D][:D]

All those allied ships sitting at their one base within a thousand miles. Completly surrounded by Japanese forces.

I know the idea is to bypass the Japanese forces at PH. The question has to be who exactly is cut off?

If Japan gets to fight the battle on these terms they may hold on forever.

[EUBanana]

I would be more then happy to fight an even surface battle there. My cripples have nearby bases. You're damaged ships are as good as sunk.

A US warship won't sink in a port 4, which Midway is. I had two CVs with 90+ flotation in a port 4 and they didnt sink. You'd need to apply a coup de grace.

On the other hand, you have nearby bases for your cripples? Really? From Midway Island? I doubt it. your talking 10 hexes minimum. You think a Jap cripple can travel 10 hexes?

I doubt it. [;)]

In the air your fighters may inflict heavy losses but once my bombers hit those packed airfields you will lose heavily as well.

Bombers from where? Wake? Palmyra? These bases are smaller than Midway Island, so its the Japs who will be suffering from over packed airfields, not the Allies. Pearl to Midway is a huge distance to conduct a bombing campaign from. And as the Allies can be focusing on fighters rather than bombers, just a few torpedo bombers to keep the IJN honest.

The key thing to remember though is that if I can shut it down your single base once its all over. You'll never reopen that base again as I will just keep pounding it. You're CAP has to fly every day where I only have to mass my carriers at Midway for one day. 6 carriers worth of zero's and bombers will not be stopped by a couple hundred allied fighters. It will be a bloody day but in the end the base will be closed.

End result, Allies lose 200 Warhawks and Japs lose 200 from KB, say. Sounds like a win for the Allies to me. And the Jap better be careful, or it'll be the Japs who get pounced by US carriers while demoralised and depleted.

[moses]

End result, Allies lose 200 Warhawks and Japs lose 200 from KB, say. Sounds like a win for the Allies to me. And the Jap better be careful, or it'll be the Japs who get pounced by US carriers while demoralised and depleted.

But you forget that at the end of the battle the airbase is closed. Now its all over. Any ships there will be killed easy. All the planes left will be destroyed on the ground over the next few turns. Supply will be bombed to nothing and your ground forces destroyed.

The only way to save the situation is to bring back your carriers all the way from the west coast.

But have no illusions about surprising my carriers at Midway. Midway sits in the middle of my ocean. I'd have air recon on all sides and the only possible avenue of secret approach( from the north) can be covered by four or five subs with Glenns or even a small surface ship or two.

When you're carriers show up I'll just send my carriers back home.

[EUBanana]

oops

[EUBanana]

But you forget that at the end of the battle the airbase is closed. Now its all over. Any ships there will be killed easy. All the planes left will be destroyed on the ground over the next few turns. Supply will be bombed to nothing and your ground forces destroyed.

You talk of closing it as if its a cinch, from where? Wake? Palmyra? No, you'll have to use KB. You'll be using KB in late 1942, near a base with massed Allied fighters. The distances are great enoug that its not like your level 4 airfields at Wake or Palmyra are going to be intervening much.

This is not in the Japanese favour. The distance is irrelevant, no Jap cripple is going to survive a trip from Midway to Pearl Harbor or Japan, and they'll sink if you take them to Wake or Palmyra. Its distance "great enough" for both sides to be far from home.

But have no illusions about surprising my carriers at Midway. Midway sits in the middle of my ocean. I'd have air recon on all sides and the only possible avenue of secret approach( from the north) can be covered by four or five subs with Glenns or even a small surface ship or two.

Thats easily countered by a few recons in force from the Allies. By the time you've seen the fiftieth AK or DD chugging across the northern Pacific you'll get bored. And I'll be catching those Glen boats sometimes.

[moses]

I'll be closing it with KB!!! Look you're guys are just sitting ducks at Midway. I pick my day drive to two hexes off Midway and pound it to snot. Whatever the result of the battle my KB planes will come back the next day along with 100 betties from PH and your airfield will be closed.

From that point any ships there might as well surrender. Size four port or not without any air cover they can't survive.

And of course my cripples can get back to PH. Japanese damage control is bad but not completly hopeless. 10 hexes is not far unless we are talking about a ship with very heavy floatation damage. I certainly like my chances better then the allies who have to go a thousand miles of Japanese airspace to get home. And my carriers are sitting right there.

The only way for the allies to keep Midway open is to leave the carriers there. This can be doine but it seems unprofitable to keep your main strikeforce sitting where I can see it all the time at a place with no repair facilities.[;)]

[Nikademus]

Closing an airbase is fairly easy so while i wouldn't label it a 'cinch' its more than in the power of KB to do.

[EUBanana]

ORIGINAL: moses

I'll be closing it with KB!!! Look you're guys are just sitting ducks at Midway. I pick my day drive to two hexes off Midway and pound it to snot. Whatever the result of the battle my KB planes will come back the next day along with 100 betties from PH and your airfield will be closed.

PH to Midway? thats a hell of a long way. It makes Rabaul to Lunga look small. You would have to plaster the airfield completely, and then maintain a significant Betty force there. Which I'm sure you could do - but it means bye bye, KB fighter group, and if the US CVs are about then it means, in effect, fighting Allied carriers near fighter heavy, torpedo armed base.

And of course my cripples can get back to PH. Japanese damage control is bad but not completly hopeless. 10 hexes is not far unless we are talking about a ship with very heavy floatation damage. I certainly like my chances better then the allies who have to go a thousand miles of Japanese airspace to get home. And my carriers are sitting right there.

You don't though, from Midway to Dutch Harbor.

The only way for the allies to keep Midway open is to leave the carriers there. This can be doine but it seems unprofitable to keep your main strikeforce sitting where I can see it all the time at a place with no repair facilities.[;)]

Well, after a while you move on, probably try for Palmyra or something like that.

...this is all theoretical and is a pretty abstract problem, but basically the question is - if Japan has taken everything from Noumea to Pearl, when would the US begin to credibly make an attack? I would say late 42, and I would say Dutch Harbor to Midway Island.

[EUBanana]

...it really assumes the US has no alternative to attack in the Central Pacific, thats what i assume. The point is, the date at which that can happen.

I suspect in most games the US will have an alternative. Even in a situation that bad, I figure you'd have Auckland to attack from towards Noumea or Fiji or something, so at least an option.



... but I still reckon you shouldn't be discounting the US from going for the Pacific with some success in late 42.

[EUBanana]

Its 25 hexes from Midway Island to Dutch Harbor.

its 20 hexes from Midway Island to Pearl Harbor.

...this "huge distance" is pretty much the same for both sides.

[moses]

Yep its a little further out then I thought.[:D]

I need to take a map with me to work as a reference.[;)]

[EUBanana]

ORIGINAL: moses

Yep its a little further out then I thought.[:D]

I need to take a map with me to work as a reference.[;)]

[:D]

I was just doing my turn. [:D]

[AirGriff]

Wow, it seems I've ignited a good debate. But, if he's got all that support force/LBA/LCU in Hawaii, why not push up from Australia or New Zealand where he must have stripped himself and cut it off from the south?

Another question, and this is me trying to get deeper into my opponents head. It seems to me that the main reason a Jap player would be this aggressive would be that he's looking for an early point victory at the end of '43. If he can gather the points and hold things together to the end of '43 he'll win. That's the only reason I can think he would stretch his support base so far. He certainly seems to be picking up every piece of real estate he can possibly grab. He's even scooping up tons of little obscure beaches everywhere, though I know you need to do that to keep the enemy intel down. Seems to me that if you're not going for the early victory, then the safe bet for the Japs would be to tighten the defense line and hope to smash the first few invasions to pieces to forestall the war longer than historical. That means he's got to take some other high value bases to do it. I'm thinking India, but would just New Zealand or just Australia do it in '43?

I've had to work for several days and have only advanced to Jan 3rd. No moves on the Hawaiian Islands as of yet. Looks like he's consolidating Johnston and Midway. He taunted me a day or so ago with what appears to be a CVL of some sort a little north of the halfway point between PH and SF. I think he's either baiting me or covering another Aleutian landing, maybe both. I spotted at least one CV going from the Johnston area to apparently Midway. Other than that his fleet carriers have dropped off the scope. Oooooh, he's taunting me. I told him what a ballsy thing to put that little carrier out there and he invited me out. Said his fleet carriers were back at Midway refueling and we could duke it out between SF and PH. Ha! Fat chance.

[Hornblower]

Ok, if they took PH, can they hold it? Send every SS you have from san fran to cut off supplies. any ship and supply sent to PH is a ship or supply not sent elsewhere.. it opens up Burma and SWpac and Sopac to attack. Granted the supply lines are longer, but honestly, do you think the US can't take PI back? maybe not now, but mid '43 it will be hard to hold..

[Mr.Frag]

Ok, if they took PH, can they hold it?

I'd suspect that PH held by Japan would be impossible to take back until the Allied player has F6F'd their CV's ...

Until that point, CV airpower while being strong, is unlikely to be able to deal with KB (naval air) + PH (nell/betty)

It is likely the game would end from auto-victory conditions before the F6F was around to cure the problem.

The issue is really one of power projection. Without the Allied heavy bombers (nothing in range of PH), the only form of air power is CV based. F4F's are not strong enough to deal with the combined threat of multiple airfields and carriers. You'd probably be looking middle to late '43 to amass the power to take it back.

[ADavidB]

ORIGINAL: Nikademus

It helps explain the real life pace more at least.....the US was very concerned over losing a base as important as PH initially and stuffed it. Often in WitP, players are chaffing at the bit to go on the counter-offensive against Japan in early 42. lol...still remember the time Kid invaded Tarawa in 2/42. [:D]

Nik - your eyes would bug out if you saw what I have in the HI... Not only have I guaranteed that Tophat can't invade successfully, but I've been able to build up all the offensive US Divisions to max size in "safety and comfort". There are lots of good reasons to send CenPac, SoPAc and SWPac troops to the HI in early 1942...

Cheers -

Dave Baranyi

[ADavidB]

PH to Midway? thats a hell of a long way.

I noticed that the Japanese player had already taken FFS and Layson. Those bases can be built up to level 4 ports and AFs. Once done, planes can be brought back and forth from Hawaii and ships can refuel and replenish...

If the HI are lost, Midway is not the way to go. I would guess that the only resort would be to fight down the Aleutians and try the Northern route...

But then, that's why I'm so paranoid about keeping the HI safe...

Cheers -

Dave Baranyi

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: Mr.Frag

Ok, if they took PH, can they hold it?

I'd suspect that PH held by Japan would be impossible to take back until the Allied player has F6F'd their CV's ...

Until that point, CV airpower while being strong, is unlikely to be able to deal with KB (naval air) + PH (nell/betty)

It is likely the game would end from auto-victory conditions before the F6F was around to cure the problem.

The issue is really one of power projection. Without the Allied heavy bombers (nothing in range of PH), the only form of air power is CV based. F4F's are not strong enough to deal with the combined threat of multiple airfields and carriers. You'd probably be looking middle to late '43 to amass the power to take it back.

If I were playing the Allies in this situation (which I wouldn't be caught dead doing [:D]), I would flood the area west of Hawaii with about 50-60 subs. Supply has to get there at some point.

[ADavidB]

ORIGINAL: AirGriff

He's about to take Johnston Isl. Do you guys think it's worth trying to sneak a division in to Hilo or Lahaina? It's pretty risky, but you masterminds are making me very nervous again.

IIRC, you mentioned that your opponent is marching up the Aleutians too. You should be very, very careful of that. The threat to Hawaii may be a feint to get you to pull troops out of the West Coast. If you opponent takes Vancouver he has a railroad to the "United States" base which is worth enough points to give him an autovictory. He can also paradrop troops into the "US" from Vancouver.

Be careful everywhere...

Good luck -

Dave Baranyi

[AirGriff]

ok, you guys are spooking me again. Should I try and sneak that division in or not? It's Jan 5th and I just got a big supply convoy in, which he never laid a glove on. I'm not sure where his carriers are right now. They flat disappeared. He's got several TF's about to make a run on Pago Pago and at the same time I just picked up a convoy headed for Dutch Harbor. Anyway, if he wants Lahaina or Hilo one division isn't going to stop him. I was thinking I'd save that division for some sort of op down the road while his KB is busy tying Hawaii down.

Somebody earlier asked how many independent divisions of his are accounted for. I know where all but the 5th and 33rd divisions are. Haven't quite kept track of the brigades, though. Here are the locales for his divisions:

Imp Grd--moving into lower Burma
2nd--Johnston Island
4th--PI
5th--???
16th--Lae
18th--Singapore
21st--Southern China
33rd--???
38th--DEI
48th--PI
55th--Malaya
56th--Midway

What do you think?