Tres Amigos Dos! JAM v Flaviusx (no Flaviusx)

[JAMiAM]

ORIGINAL: alfonso

Why in Ukarainia there are converted hexes far from your Axis units? Did you advance and then retreat?

Yes, for three reasons.

First, there were some stacks of routed units that I wanted to further displace, reducing their morale, and causing extra casualties. Secondly, the conversion of the hexes would slow down enemy movement through that area, reducing any chance of my exposed unit at Proskurov getting encircled, and thirdly, since the breakthrough was not strong enough to cut off the enemy forces, and put them out of supply, the overextended Pz Division that was exploiting and displacing the routed units was needed to prevent the rest of the schwerpunkt from being too exposed, and subject to counterattacks from the inside of the developing pocket.

I often do a little runaround with my exploiting mobile units to gain extra breathing room above and beyond the hexes that they will end up in. The reasons given above are generally observed, when feasible. It spends a little more fuel, but it often worth the effort in maintaining momentum from turn to turn.

[alfonso]

Thanks for this AAR, I am learning a lot.

What surprises me the most, is your self-confidence!. Do you have secret weapons on store?. After reading what almost everyone says about unbalance, I would like to know why you think they are wrong. So I will stay tuned...

[Encircled]

If you can't be confident as the Germans in the summer of '41, when can you be?

Add me to the list who is thinking "Where the hell is he going?" btw!

[JJKettunen]

Interesting to see how TOAW-Marshall's (hi James!) DNO-methods work here.

[mmarquo]

"I lost twice as much in combat losses on the first turn..."
 
Yes.... in part because you were attacking fortifications and there was a functional (albeit poor) C&C
 
Marquo 

[glvaca]

ORIGINAL: Marquo

Where are you going? Kiev is east, not south...[:)]

But the Soviet army is everywhere [;)]

[sillyflower]

My money is on Soviets I'm afraid. IMHO you just aren't surrounding and killing enough baddies. With so many surviving Soviets checkerboard will exhaust you until you run out of time.

I hope I'm wrong though as I've just started as germans for 1st time.

[Oleg Mastruko]

ORIGINAL: sillyflower

My money is on Soviets I'm afraid. IMHO you just aren't surrounding and killing enough baddies. With so many surviving Soviets checkerboard will exhaust you until you run out of time.

And you base that on.... what?? One turn?

Good players, and Jamiam is among the best, surround more and more Sovs as the game progresses, in game vs me I think he reached peak in units-destroyed-per-turn much later.

[sillyflower]

ORIGINAL: Oleg Mastruko

ORIGINAL: sillyflower

My money is on Soviets I'm afraid. IMHO you just aren't surrounding and killing enough baddies. With so many surviving Soviets checkerboard will exhaust you until you run out of time.

And you base that on.... what?? One turn?

Good players, and Jamiam is among the best, surround more and more Sovs as the game progresses, in game vs me I think he reached peak in units-destroyed-per-turn much later.

Only 2 turns I admit, but from my own games and studying all the AARs those first 2 turns seem to set the scene.

Of course I may be wrong. Time will tell, which is why I never bet irl.

[JAMiAM]

I'm going to change up the presentation a little, this time around. Still trying to find a good order to show the events of the turn, so that readers can follow both the development of the game as presented on the board, as well as what is going through my mind as I'm actually playing the game.

By now, readers of my AARs will be aware that I run a LOT of recon missions. On light turns, this may be between 100-200 missions. On heavier turns, or as in the games against Pieter (ComradeP), and Flavio (Flaviusx) where I'm trying to get a good feel for their playstyles, between 400-500+ per turn. So, I will simply do away with redundant screenshots of what the front looks like before I run recon. I'll let you see what I'm seeing, and what I think that any player who has the strategic initiative should be looking for.

That said, let's first take a look at the ground losses at the start of the turn. As before, about 2/3 of my losses are from attrition and irrepairably damaged components being tallied during the Logistics phase. This is really unavoidable, and though it does tend to drag down the performance of each sides forces, favors the side with higher morale and experience. At this stage of the game, that is me. Flavio's losses to attrition have been ~45-50k per turn, while mine have been ~15-18k. So, this has been favoring me by about 2.5 to 1. Of course, the Soviets get more manpower than the Axis, so the loss differentials must be accentuated by actual combat. So far, the ground combat losses have been running in my favor by ~10-14 to 1, for an overall ratio of 12 to 1. I fully realize that I'm at the top end of the curve here, so my operational and strategic plans need to remain focused on keeping the curve as flat as possible, as long as possible, and minimizing the rate of the falling loss ratios.

Some of the players who have commented in my AARs are concerned about the AGS move on turn one not being strong enough, because I chose to not attempt any mass encirclements of the Soviets facing this Army Group on turn one. The exact reasons I chose to do this remain somewhat classified. Since both Flavio and Pieter have been contributing to one anothers AARs, I don't want to reveal too much at this stage, since I would assume that they are at least comparing their experiences with our respective games. However, I will say this much. Momentarily taking some Soviet divisions off the OOB (remember that until Nov 41, most surrendered Soviet divisions are reconstituted) is not the only way to weaken the Soviet capability to defend the Motherland. Also, just because something doesn't get into the bag now, doesn't mean that it won't later at a time and place more in tune with my strategic and operational goals.

Anyhow, the screenshot...

[JAMiAM]

When I started running my air recon this turn, I noticed that the Soviet air force was coming back out to play. Flavio's mass exodus to the National Reserve had obviously served its purpose of allowing him a cheap and easy way to reorganize his airforce. Now, don't get me wrong...I don't mean for "cheap and easy" to be a derogatory term, since this game mechanism is apparently the designer's intent to allow the easy change, over time, to swap air groups in and out of airbases around the map. It is cheap, in terms of AP expenditure, since there is essentially no cost to do this, other than the aforementioned time constraints. A turn to fly off where they are unable to be used, and the turn that they are returned, likewise.

Anyhow, as my recon planes started flying, I was able to track the general numbers of fighters attempting to intercept them, giving me an idea of how strong his air settings were between turns. Also, direct recon of his airbases revealed what types of air frames he has chosen to bring back on the map. For the most part, they are the obsolete I-15 and I-16 models, but there were a smattering of the more 'modern' MIGs, LaGGs and Yaks to be seen, as well. He also has brought back many of his level bombers and tactical bombers. Thus, I expected this turn to be a little more strongly opposed than the last. Fortunately, for me, his biplane fighters are still piloted by poor pilots, and he apparently still has a bit of damage and fatigue to contend with, since my recon losses were less than half of what his fighter losses were.

This turn, I believe I only ran about 400-450 recon missions. Given how many fighters were going up, and the stretched state of my ground forces with the Pz Korps still too far ahead of my infantry, I chose to conserve my recon assets a bit. Thus, I did little in the way of deep recon this turn, since I was relatively quick to discover where Flavio's main defensive lines were going up and what he had left in terms of screens and checkerboards.

[JAMiAM]

This screenshot shows the map, after recon, but before any ground movement, in the Northern third of the active map. As you can see, Flavio is still trying to engage me with a light skirmishing screen, and still has checkerboards in some areas. However, he has now finally settled into his first real defensive lines. He is a little weak with the forces in the Dvina/Dnepr landbridge, but I'm not ready to engage them in force anyhow, since my infantry is still a turn and a half away. Likewise, with the units along the Velkaya, Dvina, and Dnepr Rivers.

Incidentally, this screenshot was taken before I realized that I had still had the weather graphics turn off from a previous game. I didn't notice it, until I started moving an FBD unit and thought I had stumbled on a movement bug. LoL...it was then that I discovered that the "Southern" Soviet weather zone had mud. Of course, this is a misnomer, since the Southern Soviet zone wraps from the Black Sea, across Poland and up through the Baltics.

[JAMiAM]

No James...it's not a bug. It's a feature. One that you turned off, dummy![:D]

It should also be noted that it was my preference to have random weather. I suppose this is a case of "careful what you wish for...".

A slight break for Flavio at this stage, since it will impact my progress in the Baltics, as well as the Ukraine, from Proskurov southward.

[JAMiAM]

This screenshot shows the effective middle of the map. Again, after air recon, but before ground movement.

[JAMiAM]

The Rumanian front, after air recon, before movement. Oh...and without the weather graphics to show me what an ugly picture I was missing...[;)]

[JAMiAM]

This close-in view near Proskurov shows Flavio's application of the infamous "tar-baby" defense. This didn't concern me too much, and I had even expected it. However, the mud line (again, not shown) ran such that the row of hexes that include Tarnopol, and south from there, inclusive, were all mud. This left me in a position where I was unable to take advantage of my units mobility, or attack strength since Mud severely impacts movement, fatigue, and the ending CV modifiers resulting in extremely difficult conditions to attack in. However, I could not let Flavio think that he was going to get away with oozing around me and stopping me.

Since the weather condition of the hex that the attacking unit is in, rather than the defending unit is in, dictates the effect on the ending CV, I chose to use my reserves to move and attack from the row of hexes immediately above the mud line, to peel the tar baby units away from my schwerpunkt. Multiple hasty attacks by my reserve Pz Korps was able to move adjacent to units in mud hexes, attack them from clear hexes, and repeatedly drive the hordes of sticky, muddy Soviets fleeing, and routed, to his rear. Unfortunately, my plans to finish off the Carpathian remnants, and breakout past Proskurov were delayed by this untimely Summer storm.

[JAMiAM]

This screenshot shows the southern half at the end of the turn. The tarbaby was peeled off, and some operational room created in the Proskurov bulge so that next turn, weather permitting, my offensive can again continue. From here, I can strike east toward the Dnepr, southeast to help the Rumanians, or northeast to pin the Soviets against the Pripyets. Working from a bulge, with proper concentration of force and reserves, is one way to keep a defending opponent off balance, since he has the exterior lines and is less able to defend in depth.

Although a few units still remain in the Carpathian pocket, most of the Soviet units there were destroyed this turn. Further south, the Rumanians actually had reasonable success against the Soviet screen in Moldavia, despite the mud. 11th Army also slogged through the mud to gain a few hexes. Not bad, considering...

[JAMiAM]

The ending positions for the northern half. The mud impacted my planned advance through the Baltics, as most of my units were either starved for supplies due to the mud penalties, or had to slog through it. This will give the Velkaya line an extra turn to dig in, which will make it a bit more challenging to crack. On the other hand, I suppose the Panzers will just get their rest a turn earlier than I planned.

In the area between the Berezina River and Flavio's main defense line at the Dvina/Landbridge/Dnepr Rivers, I brushed aside the defending screen to clear the path for the infantry, who are still a turn back. An attack against the landbridge defenders cleared one hex. I expect Flavio to reoccupy it, but at least the fortification level will have to restart from scratch, making it easier to breach when I launch my main assault. In the meantime, Flavio's lines though solid, are lacking in strength, and reserves. My infantry is drawing near, and are relatively fresh. A turn of resting the Panzers may be in order, and perhaps an HQ buildup session. Timing is everything, and I'll await Flavio's next turn, and the weather reports, to make that decision.

[JAMiAM]

The end of turn ground losses. Flavio is fighting for every inch of Russian soil. This has driven the casualty levels slightly higher than in my game against Pieter, for both he, and I. Both games are running approximately the same loss ratios, but the magnitude is a few percent higher for this game than the other. At least through turn 2. At the time of this AAR, I don't yet have the third turn from Pieter, so it will be interesting to see how much the games diverge as they develop.

[JAMiAM]

Finally, the air losses at the end of the turn. Like I mentioned earlier, the Red Air Force came out to play this turn. Well...play, and get shot down in droves. I know this doesn't bother Flavio, since in true Russian fashion, he is willing to trade lives, and obsolete aircraft, for any losses he can cause...[;)]