ORIGINAL: Rosencrantus
Honestly from what I've seen from this AARs is that if the Soviet player does not get wiped during the first five turns they usually do pretty well. Though I'm not sure if that is due to Axis strategies not being fully developed or anything but I have not seen a single close game AAR where Axis is doing as well as historical in 1941.
You really can't wipe the Soviets in the first 5 turns. But the accumulation of what you do as Germany the first year will dictate the rest of the game.
The ultimate factor is player skill level. The higher the skill of the Axis player the harder the game for the Soviets. As a fledgling German I would get my VP's in the Center & South leaving the North alone except for Pskov, Tallinn, and Riga which I would take. Leningrad is a time sync & will take up considerable resources which will hurt all other fronts. If you are by chance able to take it then the future is promising but not written in you favor. Fail at taking Leningrad, well you can look at the majority of the games to see what happens.