ORIGINAL: rtrapasso
Not sure if we can rule out a problem "inherent" in WITP - few people have gotten this far in the war, and bugs don't hit everyone (i.e. - some people claim they NEVER have had a problem with SYNC bug despite playing 1000's of turns; some people claim they NEVER have problems with sub transport, etc., etc.
Not sure if this may have a bearing on this issue, but I remember looooong ago that to avoid problems of Japan correctly activating the Soviets before Aug 45, Japanese players were advised to cross the border into hex 66,32 (on stock map) - the road between Mutanchiang and Vladivostok.
It's a long shot, and i'm not familiar enough with the various patches over the years that may have addressed this one, but it seems like an 'activation' problem[&:]