A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

[Curtis Lemay]

warspite1

Which is a strange answer given you haven’t in any way addressed the point. You seem to believe (numbers used made up to make the point) that if one cancels a mission that would have used 100 tons, you can then launch an operation that uses 200 tons and the extra 100 tons don’t count. It’s weird logic......

The Luzon operation was huge. It's supply requirements (and therefore sea capacity requirements - and the oil that consumes) would far exceed the PI invasion needs.

Some of the the Luzon invasion fleets were "huge" but that does not mean cancelling them automatically frees up correspondingly huge quantities of oil. The invasions themselves required only a comparatively short duration at sea due to the close proximity of Japanese controlled ports. Most of the ships used would have had to have been based nearby anyway as they were also being used in the Malaya, Borneo, Mindanao and DEI invasions.

Once you detail your own HI plans it may be possible to do a proper comparison regarding oil usage.

The PI fleet consisted of:

1 CVL
5 CA
5 CL
29 DD
2 Seaplane tenders
Minesweepers and PTs.

They will be in action for most of the campaign - along with huge air support.

The ground forces will require continuous huge ammo deliveries.

The fuel requirements will dwarf the tiny invasion of Maui.

[Curtis Lemay]

Again, delaying Luzon does nothing to the rest of the expansion. You can keep saying the same thing over and over again, but it doesn't make any difference.

It does. That is not an opinion - it is a fact. The PI was needed as a stepping stone to the NEI. The US units on the PI needed to be subjugated or they would be used to interfere with the Japanese attempts to conquer the NEI. Why can’t you understand such a simple concept?

The air and naval elements needed to be supressed. The ground units didn't. They don't have to invade to supress the air and naval. Air raids will suffice.

Many pages ago you stated shorter ranged JAAF units would have to cover for the missing JNAF bomber units to keep Luzon suppressed and that to do this the Japanese would need to capture PI territory within range of Luzon. That would obviously still qualify as an invasion. Have you decided on which particular bit of PI territory would be the target of this invasion?

Plenty of Zeros and Bettys (among a lot of other things) left for the PI stuff.

[Curtis Lemay]

This site:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/oil-war- ... 0years.%22

Says the Japanese had a two year supply of oil in reserve in July 1941. By December that would be down to 1 year and 7 months. So...any claim that the Japanese were about to run out of oil and any delay in getting the DEI oil would be a disaster are wrong. They had the time to be flexible with the start date.

warspite1

One year and seven months.... in peacetime.

You continue to make plans and decide what people would do in real life with the mindset of someone totally detached as to outcome, and playing with cardboard counters or electronic pixels. Nineteen months? (although much less once the shooting starts).

Yeah bags of time - especially with the Code of Bushido available to operate factories, ships, aircraft and vehicles.....

Peacetime oil consumption. So the 90%+ of the fleet at sea before the shooting started uses the same amount of oil as the same 90%+ sitting in port.

The Midway operation consumed over 600,000 tons of oil. And all they got out of it was a couple of islands they couldn't hold, or even do anything with.

Oil logistics: in the Pacific War,Air Force Journal of Logistics,Spring 2004:

http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/ ... i_n6172425

"By September 1941, Japanese reserves had dropped to 50 million barrels, and their navy alone was burning 2,900 barrels of oil every hour. The Japanese had reached a crossroads. If they did nothing, they would be out of oil and options in less than 2 years, If they chose war, there was a good chance they could lose a protracted conflict. Given the possibility of success with the second option, versus none with the first option, the Japanese chose war."

The Japanese stockpile was 50,000,000 barrels!

[warspite1]

This site:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/oil-war- ... 0years.%22

Says the Japanese had a two year supply of oil in reserve in July 1941. By December that would be down to 1 year and 7 months. So...any claim that the Japanese were about to run out of oil and any delay in getting the DEI oil would be a disaster are wrong. They had the time to be flexible with the start date.

warspite1

One year and seven months.... in peacetime.

And it remains peacetime until the start date is triggered. (And, of course, it WASN'T peacetime - Japan was at war with China).

Clearly they have a huge stockpile.

warspite1

Clearly, a huge stockpile. You really do talk a lot of Bushido don’t you?

[warspite1]

The Luzon operation was huge. It's supply requirements (and therefore sea capacity requirements - and the oil that consumes) would far exceed the PI invasion needs.

Some of the the Luzon invasion fleets were "huge" but that does not mean cancelling them automatically frees up correspondingly huge quantities of oil. The invasions themselves required only a comparatively short duration at sea due to the close proximity of Japanese controlled ports. Most of the ships used would have had to have been based nearby anyway as they were also being used in the Malaya, Borneo, Mindanao and DEI invasions.

Once you detail your own HI plans it may be possible to do a proper comparison regarding oil usage.

The PI fleet consisted of:

1 CVL
5 CA
5 CL
29 DD
2 Seaplane tenders
Minesweepers and PTs.

They will be in action for most of the campaign - along with huge air support.

The ground forces will require continuous huge ammo deliveries.

The fuel requirements will dwarf the tiny invasion of Maui.

warspite1

So you add a dozen more DD to the KB, you add an invasion fleet + tankers for Midway and then factor in the distances. You then allow for Midway not being taken without problem (like Wake). The Japanese around the PI will likely be harder at work as the suppression of the PI has not been as effective.

By the way, as you’ve taken more than 10% of the IJN out of the OOB and added more operations and replenishment convoys - where have all these destroyers come from?

[Buckrock]

A naval architect only requires an office building. Once designed, the crew and port personnel can follow the blueprints.

Unfortunately Yamamoto's authority is only over the Combined Fleet, not the entire navy organization. Both the ports and naval bases fall under different government and naval bureaucracies that are outside his direct control. So at this point he would now be putting in his request for the plans, materials, a workforce and the ship berths necessary to carry out the conversion work on the 12 destroyers. And the reply from relevant base administration would be that they will get back to him after the Navy General Staff have reviewed the request as well as also conducted a review into his recent decision that has left 12 destroyers currently without armament and a dock somewhere with 24 torpedo mounts and 36 naval guns piled up next to a crane.

What nonsense! Yamamoto, commander of the Combined Fleet, has no port control of any kind?! He can't park a ship anywhere?! And, apparently, throughout the Japanese empire there's not a single berthing available anywhere for months on end! You're just making this up as you go along.

Wouldn't that be ironic.

Regardless of your opinion, what I've described in my previous posts was based on Japanese accounts from the "Pearl Harbor Papers" and "The Pacific War Papers". Peattie's "Kaigun" even has an organization chart in chapter 13 confirming that division of authority in 1941. Pretty sure some of the USSBS reports covering the IJN touch on this aspect as well. The takeaway was that Japanese bureaucracies sucked.

But for simplicity's sake, this is from the Wikipedia entry on Combined Fleet......
"From 1933, with the Mukden Incident and the increasing tension with China, a permanent HQ staff for the Combined Fleet was established. By the late 1930s, it included most of Japan's warships—only the base units, the Special Naval Landing Forces, and the China Area Fleet lay outside the Combined Fleet."

[Buckrock]

The air and naval elements needed to be supressed. The ground units didn't. They don't have to invade to supress the air and naval. Air raids will suffice.

Many pages ago you stated shorter ranged JAAF units would have to cover for the missing JNAF bomber units to keep Luzon suppressed and that to do this the Japanese would need to capture PI territory within range of Luzon. That would obviously still qualify as an invasion. Have you decided on which particular bit of PI territory would be the target of this invasion?

Plenty of Zeros and Bettys (among a lot of other things) left for the PI stuff.

But now with less than the historical JNAF force used against the PI and also now without the JAAF being able to take over from the JNAF there after December?

[warspite1]

warspite1

One year and seven months.... in peacetime.

You continue to make plans and decide what people would do in real life with the mindset of someone totally detached as to outcome, and playing with cardboard counters or electronic pixels. Nineteen months? (although much less once the shooting starts).

Yeah bags of time - especially with the Code of Bushido available to operate factories, ships, aircraft and vehicles.....

Peacetime oil consumption. So the 90%+ of the fleet at sea before the shooting started uses the same amount of oil as the same 90%+ sitting in port.

The Midway operation consumed over 600,000 tons of oil. And all they got out of it was a couple of islands they couldn't hold, or even do anything with.

Oil logistics: in the Pacific War,Air Force Journal of Logistics,Spring 2004:

http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/ ... i_n6172425

"By September 1941, Japanese reserves had dropped to 50 million barrels, and their navy alone was burning 2,900 barrels of oil every hour. The Japanese had reached a crossroads. If they did nothing, they would be out of oil and options in less than 2 years, If they chose war, there was a good chance they could lose a protracted conflict. Given the possibility of success with the second option, versus none with the first option, the Japanese chose war."

The Japanese stockpile was 50,000,000 barrels!

warspite1

Thank-you for emphasising just how precarious the Japanese position was. A number of us have been making this point to you for sometime now, and it looks like you've finally understood. Just 50m barrels in September 1941 with no access to oil income. As said, and as you seem to have finally realised, NOTHING could get in the way of the earliest conquest of the NEI.

[warspite1]

The air and naval elements needed to be supressed. The ground units didn't. They don't have to invade to supress the air and naval. Air raids will suffice.

warspite1

Well tell us which units (and aircraft types) are going to be sent east and which units (and aircraft types) are going to be left behind to try and suppress the naval and air units of the PI.

Then, tell us how the NEI invasion plans are amended to allow for the fact that the PI is enemy held.

I'll refer to this site:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippin ... 80%931942)

It says the Japanese had 541 aircraft targetted at the PI. Including 156 Bettys and Nells. And 107 Zeros. I'm taking about 32 Zeros and 48 Bettys. That leaves 461 behind, including 75 Zeros and 108 Bettys and Nells. So...85% of the historical strength. Maybe it takes a little longer to neutralize Luzon's air. But not much longer.

The attached map shows that the southern islands were invaded from Palau, not Luzon. That makes Luzon irrelevant to the further operations.

warspite1

And the amendments to the NEI invasion?

[Buckrock]

warspite1

Well tell us which units (and aircraft types) are going to be sent east and which units (and aircraft types) are going to be left behind to try and suppress the naval and air units of the PI.

Then, tell us how the NEI invasion plans are amended to allow for the fact that the PI is enemy held.

I'll refer to this site:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippin ... 80%931942)

It says the Japanese had 541 aircraft targetted at the PI. Including 156 Bettys and Nells. And 107 Zeros. I'm taking about 32 Zeros and 48 Bettys. That leaves 461 behind, including 75 Zeros and 108 Bettys and Nells. So...85% of the historical strength. Maybe it takes a little longer to neutralize Luzon's air. But not much longer.

The attached map shows that the southern islands were invaded from Palau, not Luzon. That makes Luzon irrelevant to the further operations.

warspite1

And the amendments to the NEI invasion?

As suggested in my earlier post, there looks to be a slight problem with Lemay's PI calculations. The only Japanese aircraft types that could reach the main US Luzon airfields from Formosa were the 263 Zeros, Bettys and Nells. Since he is not going to invade PI territory other than Mindanao, that means other shorter-ranged aircraft types like the JAAF aircraft can not play their historical part in the neutralization of US airpower on Luzon. So by taking 80 Bettys/Zeros away, Lemay has effectively reduced the aircraft numbers that the Japanese could use against Luzon by 80/263 or about 30%. And that is only for December as after that the JNAF aircraft historically had to leave the skies over Luzon and redeploy south to participate in the DEI invasions.

[Aurelian]

Here's a screenshot of the closest Japanese airfields to Pearl with the Nell's range rings.

They don't even reach Johnston Island, (off screen), let alone PH.

Well, if they go one way. But landing at strips in unknown condition. Without fuel, bombs/torpedoes/repair parts?

2.jpg (191.71 KiB) Viewed 1315 times

[Aurelian]

And here we have Hawaii.

While some of those islands have lvl 1 airfields, Niihau has a 0.

To expand those airfields, you'll need a great many supplies and time.

3.jpg (241.46 KiB) Viewed 1301 times

[Buckrock]

The Luzon operation was huge. It's supply requirements (and therefore sea capacity requirements - and the oil that consumes) would far exceed the PI invasion needs.

Some of the the Luzon invasion fleets were "huge" but that does not mean cancelling them automatically frees up correspondingly huge quantities of oil. The invasions themselves required only a comparatively short duration at sea due to the close proximity of Japanese controlled ports. Most of the ships used would have had to have been based nearby anyway as they were also being used in the Malaya, Borneo, Mindanao and DEI invasions.

Once you detail your own HI plans it may be possible to do a proper comparison regarding oil usage.

The PI fleet consisted of:

1 CVL
5 CA
5 CL
29 DD
2 Seaplane tenders
Minesweepers and PTs.

They will be in action for most of the campaign - along with huge air support.

Just as an FYI, most of the forces you list here had gone on to bigger and better things within a week of the Lingayen/Lamon invasions. By the start of January, the IJN forces dedicated to the Luzon operations had dwindled to a CL, a ML, a couple of torpedo boats and about half a dozen auxiliaries. And they spent most of their time operating out of Lingayen and just patrolling the local waters.

As for the "huge air support", it was also gone by early January, leaving behind a small force of less than 70 aircraft to support Homma's efforts against Bataan.

The ground forces will require continuous huge ammo deliveries.

They didn't. Homma's forces primarily operated off what they had landed with at Lingayen and Lamon. They could do this because they did not fight the first of their major land battles until January. The last of Homma's army forces had arrived at the beginning of January. After that there were no supply or reinforcement convoys sent to Luzon until more than a month later.

The fuel requirements will dwarf the tiny invasion of Maui.

Prove it. All you have to do is supply a detailed layout of your full plan and we can begin a proper comparison.

[warspite1]

All you have to do is supply a detailed layout of your full plan and we can begin a proper comparison.

warspite1

That's all that has been asked of him from the start.

I am really keen to see the timings for the Pearl / Maui operation - and of course the Maui part of the operation is the key here.

Soooooo much is dependent upon this. Somehow the Japanese have to co-ordinate their bombing of Pearl by the Bettys so as not to alert the defenders before the carrier strike - but not be too late and face an alert enemy.

The destroyers have to evade detection from the flying off point to Maui. And then co-ordinate their landings - again so as not to alert the defenders at Pearl and yet have sufficient time to subdue the defenders on Maui and secure the airfield and ports to allow unloading of the supplies and equipment, ammunition, AA guns, fuel (and ground crew) for the Bettys.

I mean there is absolutely no possibility of cock up is there? Within hours of the Pearl Harbor strike the Japanese could suddenly find themselves in huge trouble. Scratch two flotillas of destroyers, two battalions of troops, ground crew, spares, ammunition, fuel etc + all the Bettys....

The delay in taking the PI, and the disastrous effect that could have on the NEI would have all been for nothing and at huge cost. But hey, they may have taken Midway as compensation - although even that operation is all a bit pie in the sky at present as there is still no word on timing and naval forces to be employed.

[Buckrock]

Spending more than a dozen pages trying to convince myself that somehow this isn't a wind-up but rather some genius plan wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. Priceless.

[Aurelian]

If I read the range circle right in the above map, the Bettys can't reach Hawaii and back. The Nells fly farther, and their range circle don't even reach Johnston Island.

[Buckrock]

You're correct, no Betty or Nell could do that. In Lemay's plan though, the Bettys will fly to Hawaii, bomb PH then land at a recently captured airfield at Maui.

[Aurelian]

You're correct, no Betty or Nell could do that. In Lemay's plan though, the Bettys will fly to Hawaii, bomb PH then land at a recently captured airfield at Maui.

If, and it's a big if, they just flew one way, maybe they could. (Like the shuttle mission the USAAF flew). Nells can fly 51 hexes in the game. But even if they could, they're just going to sit there once they get there.

[warspite1]

You're correct, no Betty or Nell could do that. In Lemay's plan though, the Bettys will fly to Hawaii, bomb PH then land at a recently captured airfield at Maui.

If, and it's a big if, they just flew one way, maybe they could. (Like the shuttle mission the USAAF flew). Nells can fly 51 hexes in the game. But even if they could, they're just going to sit there once they get there.

warspite1

No the plan is that they will be re-supplied, re-fuelled, serviced, re-armed and protected by supplies, AA defences, ground crew, fuel and ordnance landed from the destroyers......

They will then at some point be reinforced by Zeros. But like with the iniital invasion of Maui, we are somewhat light on details of timings and units that will be available for all this.

Frankly, the US would only need a few surviving fighters (and remember they will be immediately bolstered by the survivors from the carriers) to make total mincemeat of the exposed Bettys. This of course assumes the Bettys have a friendly owned airfield to land on in the first place....

[Curtis Lemay]

warspite1

One year and seven months.... in peacetime.

And it remains peacetime until the start date is triggered. (And, of course, it WASN'T peacetime - Japan was at war with China).

Clearly they have a huge stockpile.

warspite1

Clearly, a huge stockpile. You really do talk a lot of Bushido don’t you?

I'll repeat: They had a stockpile that would last 19 MONTHS!

Any notion that they didn't have the flexibility to delay the start of the war for quite some time was mistaken.