Conkristador's Realism Scenario (CRS)

[RedConkristador]

Just a few random thoughts ...

IJ Ship speeds ... at the start of the war almost the entire Rengo Kantai needed re-brick and boiler tube maintenance. The maintenance had been denied by the Army Cabal leadership as part of their "maskirova" while these same ships were sent out on "show the flag" missions instead. That the "maskirova" worked would tend to support their strategic decision, but the fact remained that few, very few, ships could attain their speed trials, in addition, most had fouled bottoms, and almost all were burning very inefficiently the precious fuel that was the leading cause of the war to begin with. (Meaning their actual range was far less than sea trials in addition to the top speed loss). Conflicting priorities if ever there were any ....

The game situated refineries where they were historically ... you have randomly moved them to sites where they did not, and have never existed. Interesting concept, but not realistic either in modelling nor with respect to game mechanics. The closest realistic one is Taipei, which is actually located at Taoyuan (W of Taipei), but it wasn't operational until 1977 or so (I got there in 78, I think they broke ground in 73 or 74). Until then, not aware of any refining in Taiwan.

Atoll stacking limits: you are predicating this strictly on game hex size, not accounting for geographic features (swamps, volcanoes, etc,) nor actual island size which the original devs did. As the area in one game hex (25 mi I believe) can represent an atoll as small as 2 sq mi or up to 625 sq mi, I think your simplification to be a move backwards. In particular, current populations of several of the islands (Wake, Guam, Tarawa, Saipan, among a host of others) not to mention actual war records of troops involved in battles at these locations would suggest that your numbers diverge extravagantly from reality.

use the above as you see fit ... your mod, so your choices, not mine ...

Thanks for the feedback. I’ll re-examine the methodology for base stacking limits, but I disagree with using civilian populations as a proxy for wartime military capacity.

Regarding refining: Japan operated the not-so-random Sixth Naval Fuel Depot (Dai-Roku Kaigun Nenryō-shō) at Takao (Kaohsiung), with synthetic facilities at Shinchiku. It is thoroughly documented in the post-war U.S. Strategic Bombing Survey (USSBS Report No. 64) and later formed the core of the post-war CPC Kaohsiung refinery. Because full operations began in 1942, starting the points damaged accurately models that construction and commissioning lag within the game engine.

Distributing refinery capacity to naval depots like Tokuyama and Takao rather than grouping it in commercial hubs like Tokyo reflects historical fleet support infrastructure while giving players authentic logistical trade-offs.

[PaxMondo]

Regarding refining: Japan operated the not-so-random Sixth Naval Fuel Depot (Dai-Roku Kaigun Nenryō-shō) at Takao (Kaohsiung), with synthetic facilities at Shinchiku. It is thoroughly documented in the post-war U.S. Strategic Bombing Survey (USSBS Report No. 64) and later formed the core of the post-war CPC Kaohsiung refinery. Because full operations began in 1942, starting the points damaged accurately models that construction and commissioning lag within the game engine.

Distributing refinery capacity to naval depots like Tokuyama and Takao rather than grouping it in commercial hubs like Tokyo reflects historical fleet support infrastructure while giving players authentic logistical trade-offs.

Ok, wow. So Kaohsiung, modern day Kaohsiung City, is Hengchun on our WitP map (southern most tip of the island). Shinchiku is now modern day Hsinchu which is SE of Taipei, a little ways SE from Taoyuan. Yes, there was an experimental sugar-cane gasification unit there, of which many liters of almost AvGas quality fuel were in fact made before it was annihilated in an air raid on 17 October 44. It never achieved anything like "operations". While this unit was targeted and hit during the raid, the primary targets of the raid were the air base there (not explicitly on our game map, but contained with the Taihoku hex) and more likely the large LPG turbine Electrical generating plant which supplied the entire area with electricity.

Refining and depots are not the same, they are discrete items because depots are very easily targeted and destroyed, but also very quick to be re-built. Refineries, are not as easy to hit, but the repairs are lengthy and costly. Generally speaking, war economies want to separate these as much as possible. Even commercially, due to fire hazards, these are generally separated by a mile at least. Using Baytown as a good example, the refinery is inland a bit to isolate it from Hurricane storm surge. The initial Tank Farm is about 1/2 mile away towards the coast. The on/off loading stations are situated off the coast about 1 mile into the seaway (there are a whole string of them). https://www.alamy.com/stock-photo/baytown-refinery.html gives you some idea about this ...

I'm dropping out of this as I don't have anything else to contribute. Again, your mod as you choose. No reply necessary.

[RedConkristador]

my

Regarding refining: Japan operated the not-so-random Sixth Naval Fuel Depot (Dai-Roku Kaigun Nenryō-shō) at Takao (Kaohsiung), with synthetic facilities at Shinchiku. It is thoroughly documented in the post-war U.S. Strategic Bombing Survey (USSBS Report No. 64) and later formed the core of the post-war CPC Kaohsiung refinery. Because full operations began in 1942, starting the points damaged accurately models that construction and commissioning lag within the game engine.

Distributing refinery capacity to naval depots like Tokuyama and Takao rather than grouping it in commercial hubs like Tokyo reflects historical fleet support infrastructure while giving players authentic logistical trade-offs.

Ok, wow. So Kaohsiung, modern day Kaohsiung City, is Hengchun on our WitP map (southern most tip of the island). Shinchiku is now modern day Hsinchu which is SE of Taipei, a little ways SE from Taoyuan. Yes, there was an experimental sugar-cane gasification unit there, of which many liters of almost AvGas quality fuel were in fact made before it was annihilated in an air raid on 17 October 44. It never achieved anything like "operations". While this unit was targeted and hit during the raid, the primary targets of the raid were the air base there (not explicitly on our game map, but contained with the Taihoku hex) and more likely the large LPG turbine Electrical generating plant which supplied the entire area with electricity.

Refining and depots are not the same, they are discrete items because depots are very easily targeted and destroyed, but also very quick to be re-built. Refineries, are not as easy to hit, but the repairs are lengthy and costly. Generally speaking, war economies want to separate these as much as possible. Even commercially, due to fire hazards, these are generally separated by a mile at least. Using Baytown as a good example, the refinery is inland a bit to isolate it from Hurricane storm surge. The initial Tank Farm is about 1/2 mile away towards the coast. The on/off loading stations are situated off the coast about 1 mile into the seaway (there are a whole string of them). https://www.alamy.com/stock-photo/baytown-refinery.html gives you some idea about this ...

I'm dropping out of this as I don't have anything else to contribute. Again, your mod as you choose. No reply necessary.

Just a couple of facts before you quit the discussion:

-the point of the mod is to provide players with more detailed options and tease out some of the abstraction compromises necessary in the design

-Depots vs. Refineries: In IJN terminology, a Kaigun Nenryō-shō (Naval Fuel Depot) was not merely an unhardened storage farm. It designated integrated refining, cracking, and fuel-synthesis installations—Tokuyama was the 1st Depot, and Takao was the 6th Depot, complete with distillation and thermal cracking units designed to process southern crude. It was more than just a name.

-Takao vs. Shinchiku: You are conflating two different facilities. Shinchiku (Hsinchu) in northern Taiwan was the synthetic alcohol and isooctane plant utilizing agricultural fermentation. The main installation at Takao in the south was a conventional crude distillation complex. Because of the game’s abstractions with fuel specifically, there’s significant space for design discretion

-Capacity vs. Wartime Throughput: On paper, Takao was designed to provide around 3% to 4% of Japan's planned domestic/outer-ring refining capacity. The fact that it didnt achieve that actual wartime throughput was due to Allied submarines starving it of crude feedstock and heavy aerial bombardment in 1944–1945—not because the physical plant was "made up." Starting the points damaged models the 1942 commissioning lag and gives players the historical operational problem to solve.

[RedConkristador]

I just posted CRS 1.3. The changes:

- rebuilt the VPs from the ground up. The aim is to incentivize Japan to either seize China (historically its primary objective since 1937) or destroy the U.S fleet. Japan's historical high water mark and some of the prized Allied fleet bases (Pearl Harbor, Singapore, etc) have marginal VP value; their value is in either their economic benefit or their denial of use to the Allies. For the Allies, the only path to victory is seizing Japan itself (which is only a proxy to the complex political process that prompted Japan's surrender). VPs make AE a military math game, so tuning of VPs will be a constant in each update.

- restructured the ground units since there were some misplaced units exceeding the fixed slot ranges. Japan lost some of the 'flavor' units to consolidation and in favor of functional HQ, combat, and engineer units.

- adjusted Japan's oil and fuel reserves to about 18 months of operations (estimated)

- adjusted US economy so Eastern USA provides 40K from 60K supply, and two-thirds of light industry and resource centers start damaged. Also reduced China's supply by about a third.

- 27 Allied cargo ships withdraw starting in January 1942 representing Allied shipping constraints and demands of European theater. Only 1 returns (25 were historically sunk in the Atlantic and another one remained in ETO)

[RedConkristador]

Just posted CRS 1.4:

* did a completeness and accuracy pass on all devices, ship classes, unit templates, air groups, and LCUs

* added weather recon squadrons (recon mission), gliders, and ferry squadrons

* adjusted leader and pilot ratings and a few unit starting locations

* tuned Japanese economy, aircraft devices

* more player choice: more IJ ship conversion options, four more IJ aircraft added

[RedConkristador]

Just updated CRS 1.5:

* restructured Japanese engine infrastructure

* added Allied aircraft production blocks for P-47, P-38, P-51, B-24, B-25, B-29, and C-47 so that production scales up rather than flat from start to finish of a production line

* added/modified Japan's late war second-program merchant fleet

* further cut eastern US supply and added more Allied device/supply convoys to scale up Allied mobilization

* USN carrier air groups rotating in/out of theater as they did historically

[Yaab]

Engineers rebuilt on the DaBabes/RA pattern: national engineer devices throughout,
LION/CUB/ACORN, ten NCBs, CBMUs, Marine pioneers, shipping engineer regiments, railway
regiments, POW labour.

In DaBabes, some engineer devices could only build forts/bases, some could drops forts, some had Shore Party flag (USMC Pioneers), some were just eating supplies (Korean labor squads). Does the same apply to engineers in CRS? Here is a DaBabes engineer matrix for the Japanese side.

[RedConkristador]

Engineers rebuilt on the DaBabes/RA pattern: national engineer devices throughout,
LION/CUB/ACORN, ten NCBs, CBMUs, Marine pioneers, shipping engineer regiments, railway
regiments, POW labour.

In DaBabes, some engineer devices could only build forts/bases, some could drops forts, some had Shore Party flag (USMC Pioneers), some were just eating supplies (Korean labor squads). Does the same apply to engineers in CRS? Here is a DaBabes engineer matrix for the Japanese side.

That's a nice chart. Using that, here's how CRS stands as of the last update:

CRS_Engineer_Functions.pdf

(103.58 KiB) Downloaded 15 times

[RedConkristador]

CRS 1.6 just landed and updates:

- tuned infantry squads

- tuned IJ engines

- added Allied carrier aircraft production blocks

- added limited ASW upgrades to some Allied & IJ merchants (e.g. DEMS program)

- more recon aircraft types

- added rotation system for USN and USMC, and some IJN airgroups

[RedConkristador]

Quick turnaround with CRS 1.7:

-added more LCU devices, including Universal Carrier, IJ AT rifles and flamethrowers, etc

[RedConkristador]

CRS 1.8:

- tuned the base VPs so Allies have incentives to pursue Central Pacific Drive, SWPA drive, and/or Burma/China, but all culminate at Honshu

- added four Allied lend-lease depots in China & Chinese government; static/restricted units that give Japan large amounts of VPs if destroyed to reward an aggressive China ground campaign.

Based on a 5000-game monte carlo simulation, in CRS 1.8 a post-1943 campaign ends with automatic victory: Allied Decisive (0%), Allied Marginal (48%), Draw (29%), and Japan Marginal (22%). This presumes players of similar skill, but a statistically superior player on either side increases the win percentage to about 70% regardless of other factors. Additionally, the victory-category shift at end of game plays a huge structural role in determining the winner, so that a Japanese draw in 1945 has a high chance of becoming a Japanese marginal victory in 1946. Japan's meaningful strategies are: perimeter defense, destroy the USN fleet, China campaign, or a combination of the three. Success depends on the Allies' counter-strategy and the pace of the late war Allied offensive. Therefore, what's most important for a Japan player is the discretion to know when to shift from offense to defense and lengthening strategic delay.

Compared to stock scenario 1, with players of equal skill: Allied Decisive (31%), Allied Marginal (66%), and Draw (3%), with zero chance of Japanese automatic victory.

[RedConkristador]

CRS 1.9:

- added missing submarines and sub withdrawal dates

- tuned submarine data and submarine devices

- fixed several device and suffix errors for LCUs

- fixed where leaders were double-assigned

[RedConkristador]

Regarding refining: Japan operated the not-so-random Sixth Naval Fuel Depot (Dai-Roku Kaigun Nenryō-shō) at Takao (Kaohsiung), with synthetic facilities at Shinchiku. It is thoroughly documented in the post-war U.S. Strategic Bombing Survey (USSBS Report No. 64) and later formed the core of the post-war CPC Kaohsiung refinery. Because full operations began in 1942, starting the points damaged accurately models that construction and commissioning lag within the game engine.

Distributing refinery capacity to naval depots like Tokuyama and Takao rather than grouping it in commercial hubs like Tokyo reflects historical fleet support infrastructure while giving players authentic logistical trade-offs.

Ok, wow. So Kaohsiung, modern day Kaohsiung City, is Hengchun on our WitP map (southern most tip of the island). Shinchiku is now modern day Hsinchu which is SE of Taipei, a little ways SE from Taoyuan. Yes, there was an experimental sugar-cane gasification unit there, of which many liters of almost AvGas quality fuel were in fact made before it was annihilated in an air raid on 17 October 44. It never achieved anything like "operations". While this unit was targeted and hit during the raid, the primary targets of the raid were the air base there (not explicitly on our game map, but contained with the Taihoku hex) and more likely the large LPG turbine Electrical generating plant which supplied the entire area with electricity.

Refining and depots are not the same, they are discrete items because depots are very easily targeted and destroyed, but also very quick to be re-built. Refineries, are not as easy to hit, but the repairs are lengthy and costly. Generally speaking, war economies want to separate these as much as possible. Even commercially, due to fire hazards, these are generally separated by a mile at least. Using Baytown as a good example, the refinery is inland a bit to isolate it from Hurricane storm surge. The initial Tank Farm is about 1/2 mile away towards the coast. The on/off loading stations are situated off the coast about 1 mile into the seaway (there are a whole string of them). https://www.alamy.com/stock-photo/baytown-refinery.html gives you some idea about this ...

I'm dropping out of this as I don't have anything else to contribute. Again, your mod as you choose. No reply necessary.

I just want to put these claims to rest once and for all. No reply necessary of course! Unless you think you have something further to contribute.

What was the Imperial Japanese Navy Sixth Naval Fuel Depot?

Located in Takao, authorized by the 5th Naval Armaments Supplement Program, and formally organized in April, 1941, it was intended to be a forward deployed refining facility to support naval and aviation operations. Construction started in 1943 and the first facility came online in mid 1944. Since you like links, this is directly from the Reports of the U.S. Naval Technical Mission to Japan

The Navy had three refineries, e 17,000 bbl/ day plent at YOKKAICHI (The Second Naval Depot) , a 9500 bbl/day. unit 8t TOKUYAMA (The Third Naval Fuel Depot), and a unit at Formosa (The Sixth N eval Fuel Depot). X-38(N)-10 Japanese Fuels and Lubricants-Article 10, Miscellaneous Oil Technologyand Refining Installations

According to the attached report (Industrial space research from the Sixth Naval Fuel Plant Headquarters to the Chinese Petroleum Corporation Kaohsiung Oil Refinery (1942-1954)), the core mission of the depot was refining heavy fuel oil for naval vessels. Even though it never reached its planned capacity, naval fuel was the single largest volume product generated by the depot.

從六燃高雄本廠到中油本廠之產業空間變遷研究(1942-1954).pdf

(2.51 MiB) Downloaded 8 times

What was its capabilities and capacity?

The Refining Division, located adjacent to Takao Naval Base, had the capability for atmospheric and vacuum crude distillation, thermal cracking, leaded blending, and fuel oil bunkering. It was planned to support approximately 17,200 bbl/day but never reached this capacity because of Allied shipping interdiction.

In game terms, it could have anywhere from 150 to 250 refinery points, while it's actual historical output never reached 50 to 80 points.

How did Japan use the facility?

The facility was part of the Hi Convoys network; convoys operating between Singapore, Balikpapen, and the Home Islands used Takao as a staging and replenishment port.

What happened to the facility after the war?

The Republic of China took control of the facility and it became part of the Chinese Petroleum Corporation. It was closed in 2015. Some of the depot's administrative buildings became historical landmarks, including the Mount Banpingshan Underground Tunnels (a late war effort to protect refining infrastructure from Allied attacks).

What WITPAE engine limitations affect the inclusion of this facility in CRS?

WITPAE does not differentiate between different types of fuels or internal ownership of refineries (civilian vs naval vs army, for example). It also does not allow the construction of new facilities where none exist. This is actually a very interesting oversight in the design of the game, given its scope and the amount of detail concentrated on tactical and technical aspects. Therefore, the only way to model strategic decisions such as establishing forward depots is to have them present (damaged) at the start of the game, and allow the player to decide if it's worth repairing.


Allied aerial reconnaissance photograph of the 6th Naval Fuel Depot's Refining Division, including distillation and refining blocks

aerial.png (501.08 KiB) Viewed 237 times

Here's same location today.

today.png (644.49 KiB) Viewed 234 times

Screenshot 2026-09-14 224723.png (1.58 MiB) Viewed 234 times

Like you said - it's my mod, so my choice. Hope that clarifies things.

[RedConkristador]

CRS 1.11:

- reviewed all amphibious lift

- reduced aviation support squads in Air HQs and distributed them to base forces

- renamed USN base forces as CASUs and PATSUs (mostly cosmetic)

- tuned IJN LCUs to improve TOEs, upgrade paths, etc

- moved IJ oil centers

- tuned IJ base VPs

- corrections to arrival dates for LCUs, airgroups