A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

[rkr1958]

Turn 23. May/June 1943. End of Turn.

Unoiled & Isolated/Disorganzied.

99-Unoiled-Euro-Units.png (25.72 KiB) Viewed 341 times

99-Isolated-Ita-Land.png (1 MiB) Viewed 341 times

99-Isolated-IJA-Unoiled-IJN-Jp-Units.png (2.24 MiB) Viewed 341 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 23. May/June 1943. End of Turn.

Army/Corps breakdown.

Gemini AI - During World War II, "Rat Transport" (known in Japanese as Nezumi Yusō — 鼠輸送) was the term used by the Imperial Japanese Navy (IJN) for night-time supply and reinforcement runs using fast warships—primarily destroyers—to deliver troops and supplies to island garrisons while evading Allied air and naval superiority.

The Allies famously called this operational tactic the Tokyo Express.

(1) The broken down 3rd inf div will use "RAT Transport" to either Manchuria or possibly Jp controlled Chinese coastal hex.

99-Jp-Breakdown.png (958.56 KiB) Viewed 340 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 23. May/June 1943. End of Turn.

Final Production.

99-Final-Production-CL.png (35.41 KiB) Viewed 333 times

99-Gross-BP.png (111.33 KiB) Viewed 335 times

99-Net-BP.png (113.51 KiB) Viewed 335 times

99-Oil.png (174.33 KiB) Viewed 335 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 23. May/June 1943. End of Turn.

Siam Completely Conquered by CW.

99-Conquest-Asian-Siam.png (1.39 MiB) Viewed 298 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 23. May/June 1943. End of Turn.

Economics Summary/Production.

99-Econ.png (101.81 KiB) Viewed 298 times

99-Production-1.png (481.33 KiB) Viewed 298 times

99-Production-2.png (270 KiB) Viewed 298 times

99-Production-3.png (118.96 KiB) Viewed 298 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 23. May/June 1943. End of Turn. Global Map.

Control.

99-GM-Control.png (113.91 KiB) Viewed 296 times

Units.

99-GM-Units.png (98.09 KiB) Viewed 296 times

Active Axis.

99-GM-Active-Axis.png (79.33 KiB) Viewed 296 times

Active Allied.

99-GM-Active-Allied.png (95.48 KiB) Viewed 296 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 23. May/June 1943. End of Turn.

Victory Totals/Score.

99-VT.png (145.82 KiB) Viewed 296 times

99-VT-2.png (93.99 KiB) Viewed 296 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 23. May/June 1943. End of Turn.

Key Fronts (Eastern & Western) Reports & Analysis.

(1) OKH is trying to apply rigor to allocation of land & air reinforcements to fronts; specifically between the Eastern & Western Fronts.
(2) Germany land unit allocation ratios look favorable equal on both key fronts (i.e., 1.7 units, 1.7 to 1.9 in LCF).
(3) So diving up land reinforcements equally between the two fronts seems to make the most sense.
(4) For air strength, German is at an equal air-to-air (i.e., fighter) deficit on both fronts; but not bad at 0.94.
(5) So fighter reinforcements deploy equally between the fronts.
(6) In TAC, Germany has a significant advantage (1.5) on the Eastern Front and a disadvantage (0.8) on the Western Front.
(7) So, the lions share of TAC air to the Western Front.
(8) Now of course, these ratios will change as allied reinforcements also show up.
(9) Let me know what you think about this analysis and especially how I might improve it!

German (& Italian) Land & Air Allocation (Current).

99-Ge-Key-Front-Report.png (60.35 KiB) Viewed 287 times

Allied Land & Air Allocation (Current).

99-Allied-Key-Front-Report.png (58.39 KiB) Viewed 287 times

German (& Italian) / Allied Ratios (Current).

99-Ge-Allied-Key-Front-Ratios.png (69.44 KiB) Viewed 287 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 24. July/August 1943. Start of Turn.

Reinforcements.

00-Reinf-CL.png (36.2 KiB) Viewed 223 times

Axis.

00-Axis-Reinf.png (60.93 KiB) Viewed 223 times

Democratic Allied.

00-Democratic-Allied-Reinf.png (41.81 KiB) Viewed 223 times

communist Allied.

00-Communist-Allied-Reinf.png (23.17 KiB) Viewed 223 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 24. July/August 1943. Start of Turn.

Resource Lending

00-DTA.png (48.55 KiB) Viewed 214 times

00-Trade.png (165.03 KiB) Viewed 214 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 24. July/August 1943. Start of Turn.

(Pre) Initiative.
(1) This turn (July/August) will be a long turn with fine weather across Western, Eastern Europe, Central, Northern China & China Sea.
(2) The axis hold the initiative advantage at Axis +2, with the allies winning ties.
(3) Both sides (axis & allies) & all 8 major powers want the initiative and to move first.
(4) Given that the axis are willing to reroll (allies can't), the axis have an overall 83.8% chance of winning the initiative and moving first.
(5) The axis have a 64% chance of winning it without having to request a reroll (i.e., on the first roll).
(6) The allies have only a 16.2% of winning the initiative and moving first.
(7) The "exact" calculation for axis win % is 64% (win out right on 1st roll w/Axis+2, Allies win tie) + 36% (lose first roll & request reroll) x 55% (win reroll at Axis+1, Allies win tie) = 64% + 36% x 55% = 83.8%

Voting.

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00-Pre-Initiative.png (66.08 KiB) Viewed 212 times

Weather Forecast.

00-Weather-Forecast.png (112.85 KiB) Viewed 212 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Start of Turn.

Initiative.
(1) The allies hit the 1-in-6 set of rolls that give them the initiative and allows them to move first.
(2) This harkens me back to my Avalon Hill 3rd Reich days ... "the axis make a critical 1:1 attack and roll a D6 = 5".

00-Initiative-CL.png (43.15 KiB) Viewed 205 times

00-Initiative-Roll-1.png (111.16 KiB) Viewed 205 times

01-AL-Weather-Report.png (113.21 KiB) Viewed 205 times

[WIFKillzone]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Start of Turn.

Initiative.
(1) The allies hit the 1-in-6 set of rolls that give them the initiative and allows them to move first.
(2) This harkens me back to my Avalon Hill 3rd Reich days ... "the axis make a critical 1:1 attack and roll a D6 = 5".
00-Initiative-CL.png
00-Initiative-Roll-1.png
01-AL-Weather-Report.png

This was the most critical dice roll of the game so far, you could almost branch two different games from this point to show the long term impacts, axis wins initiative vs allies. Better yet, turn ends after axis turn, then axis wins i initiative this turn. Amazing how impactful initiative game mechanics are.

[rkr1958]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Start of Turn.

Initiative.
(1) The allies hit the 1-in-6 set of rolls that give them the initiative and allows them to move first.
(2) This harkens me back to my Avalon Hill 3rd Reich days ... "the axis make a critical 1:1 attack and roll a D6 = 5".
00-Initiative-CL.png
00-Initiative-Roll-1.png
01-AL-Weather-Report.png

This was the most critical dice roll of the game so far, you could almost branch two different games from this point to show the long term impacts, axis wins initiative vs allies. Better yet, turn ends after axis turn, then axis wins i initiative this turn. Amazing how impactful initiative game mechanics are.

I saw the allied initiative win as more of a lifeline in Europe; especially Eastern Europe. I think at this point the allies have achieved near parity (land & air) with the Euro-Axis in the West & in the East. Though, Germany is far, far from being anywhere near finished. Except, as historical, their oil situation is fragile. That's why Army Group South is pushing like banshees to capture the Soviet Oil fields in the South. This push is at the expense of the rest of the front; especially given the significant land & air strength that Germany has had to divert to the Western Front to combat the Western Allied invasion in France. Now, with Soviet oil fields at risk, the Western Allies are having to divert land (& possibly later air) resources that were slated for the Western Front to the Middle East (Syria & Persia). A very interesting but necessary dynamic.

Also, and maybe this is the wrong lesson that I've learned, is that it's often necessary to make risky, even low odds (especially blitz) attacks when at parity to take or disrupt the other sides initiative. If one waits for the "perfect" odds to attack this often allows their opponent to maintain/gain the initiative & dictate the flow of battle. At parity, much needs to be risk (not recklessly though); otherwise, most surely one will at worse be defeated or at best significantly set back. On the flip side, on one takes risk by definition if those risk hit (i.e., attack(s) fail); that can also lead to defeat or set backs. However; this later is much less certain than the former. And it's much more gaming fun too! The balance is to act on "reasonable" risks versus being reckless.

In Asia, Japan is certainty on the ropes; however, the allies must not let the towel hit them in the face with Japan throws it in! Japan still has significant power to cause harm, so the Western Allies must keep sufficient land, sea & air power to continue to suppress Japan. Then, there's a question if/when the allies need to go directly at Japan (i.e., making a landing & push on the home islands). Given what's happening in Europe, I don't see that on the books for 1943. Is it on the books for 1944? Depends on the situation in Europe vs Germany & Italy.

I've finished this current impulse and will post the summary today & tomorrow (Saturday's are for watching College Football!).

[rkr1958]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #1. Allied Command.

(1) US takes a super combine (played O-chit).
(2) CW, China, USSR - land.
(3) France - naval.

Impulse #161. Weather & Actions Table.

01-AL-Weather-ACTN-Table.png (20.72 KiB) Viewed 17 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #1. Allied Command.

(1) Lots of different objectives/concerns this impulse for the allies to address.
(2) One of the more mundane; but critically important things are allied convoys and production.
(3) With the CW taking a land, the Western Allies are limited if they need to affect changes to convoy lines or production.
(4) But first they audit their production to see IF or WHAT changes need to be made.
(5) This audit found that the Western Allies (US, CW & France) are at full production, which is generally 100% but in the case of the CW, because of food in flames, it's 115.2%!
(6) The Soviets are at 91.3%; however, rail to 2 of their 26 operational factories (Leningrad & Stalingrad & both red factories) has been cut and likely won't be reestablished for a while.
(7) Chinese production is at 83.3% (1 idle) factory with the Western Allies & Chinese Nationalist moving to get a current or to be liberate RP through via an overland rail route to be opened up this turn.
(8) The production audit confirmed that all manual (i.e., off the books) trade have the "spare" CP line (if & as necessary).
(9) The 1 Soviet saved oil to China will be delivered completely overland from Manchuria to Northern China.
(10) The audit revealed that the only idle non-oil RES is the CW Larut, Malaya, which has long been idle.
(11) Note that idle oil, as long as there's a CP chain to them, isn't a concern as they can and likely will be used for reorg.
(12) In this case, the CPs in the necessary chain are being used in other route(s).
(13) So at this point total allied production stands at a total of 159 BPs of 164 BPs possible (97%), which for this calculation scales max CW production back from 115.2% to 100%.
(14) Current allied production & convoy lines look great EXCEPT for the threat of Turkey entering the war, on Germany's side, which would block 2 of the 3 CW lend lease BPs currently shipped through a neutral Turkey (East Med->Syria->Turkey->USSR).
(15) The one action resulting from this production audit is to reroute those 2 CPs going from the East Med to Turkey to the Persian Gulf and going through Persia.

Production Audit.

01-AL-Production-CL.png (31.4 KiB) Viewed 14 times

01-AL-US-Production.png (66.89 KiB) Viewed 14 times

01-AL-CW-Production.png (65.47 KiB) Viewed 14 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #1. Allied Command.

(1) The next step was to assess the risk to allied convoy lines in both the Atlantic & Pacific.
(2) In the Atlantic the threat is 5 German U-boat flotillas & 5 Italian Sub Gps (3 already at sea in the North Atlantic).
(3) In the Pacific, the threat is 2 IJN I-boat Gps.
(4) These risks were addressed constrained by Allied action type (i.e., US full naval via super combine, Fr naval & CW land) and competing & often higher priorities (e.g., land unit transport, amph invasions).
(5) The risk model used in the Atlantic is an updated & evolving model, MIN(-4.09E-07*WxT^4 + 0.000109WxT^3 - 0.00982*WxT^2 + 0.432WxT, Num_CP)
(6) WxT = total # of sub factors in or that could reach the sea area & attack (e.g., 2 box or higher in storm).
(7) Num_CP is the total number of CPs the sea area.
(8) The Pacific risk model is still the legacy model that uses a simpler calculation for risk.
(9) Any sub already in the sea area contributes 2 + 2*(box sub is in) and any organized sub in port that could reach the sea area contributes 1 + (box sub could reach); both regardless of weather or number of sub factors.
(10) The Atlantic threat & risk analysis identified in order the North Atlantic, Faeroes Gap, East Coast, Cape St. Vincent, Gulf of Guinea as sea areas that need to be addressed both for escorts & patrols as action types & competing priorities allow.
(11) In the Pacific the highest at risk areas (in order) are Bismarck Sea, South China Sea, Coral Sea, The Marianas, The Solomons and China Sea.
(12) Like in the Atlantic, convoys & escorts were sent to these sea area and other lower risk ones as priorities & action types permit.

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #1. Atlantic. Threat & Risk.

01-AL-BOA-U-boat-Sub-Threat.png (63.37 KiB) Viewed 11 times

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #1. Pacific. Threat & Risk.

01-AL-PTO-I-boat-Threat.png (50.03 KiB) Viewed 6 times